Sustainable Competitive Advantage of Turkish Contractors in Poland

Abstract

The burgeoning economic relationship between Türkiye and Poland, marked by a targeted $10 billion trade volume, has catalyzed significant Turkish engagement in the Polish construction sector. Ranked second globally in international contracting, Turkish firms are increasingly undertaking complex infrastructure projects in Poland, making it a critical European market to analyze. This study develops a comprehensive framework to identify and evaluate the sources of sustainable competitive advantage for Turkish contractors operating in this dynamic environment. The research adopts a qualitative, single-case study methodology, centered on the extensive project portfolio of a leading Turkish firm in Poland. The analytical approach is twofold. First, it employs Porter’s Diamond Framework to deconstruct the existing competitive advantages, revealing a shift from traditional low-cost models to a sophisticated synergy of superior labor management capabilities, strategic local partnerships, and expertise in complex project delivery. These strengths are shown to align directly with Poland’s critical needs, particularly its skilled labor shortage and ambitious infrastructure agenda. Second, a Foresight Analysis is conducted to map plausible future scenarios through 2035, addressing key uncertainties such as geopolitical shifts and the pace of technological adoption. The findings demonstrate that the sustained success of Turkish contractors hinges on their ability to deliver targeted value. The study concludes by proposing a set of “no-regrets” strategies—including accelerated ESG and digital up-skilling, forging deep local partnerships, and developing financial engineering capabilities—designed to secure and enhance their competitive positioning. The results provide an actionable roadmap for industry practitioners and valuable insights for policymakers fostering bilateral economic collaboration.

1. Introduction

The construction industry, with a reported turnover of US$7 trillion [1], constitutes a vital component of the global economy. This sector exhibits a dichotomous characteristic: it is both influenced by market demand for its outputs and simultaneously shaped by the fluctuating costs of materials, labor dynamics, and overall industry capacity [2]. Fulfilling a fundamental societal imperative by providing essential housing and infrastructure [3], global contractors are compelled to adapt to an increasingly complex and competitive international market [4,5]. In the 21st century, competitiveness in international markets depends on a complex set of factors [6], requiring firms to comprehensively understand their strategic environment [7,8]. Frameworks such as Porter’s [9] diamond model have significantly advanced the understanding of how national environments shape international competitiveness [10], which is also influenced by cultural nuances [11] and industry-level competitive forces [12].

Within this global context, the European Union’s construction industry is a vital economic pillar, providing 18 million jobs and contributing approximately 9% of the EU’s GDP. Poland, as the EU’s sixth-largest economy, presents a particularly dynamic and demanding market. The Polish construction sector, while facing challenges such as labor shortages [13], has been expanding since 2022 [14], with its output closely tied to GDP growth [15]. Valued at PLN 243.1 billion in 2019, the market is characterized by a dominance of micro-enterprises [16] and has demonstrated resilience through economic crises and reforms [17,18], despite pandemic-related contractions [19].

Concurrently, Türkiye, the world’s 17th largest economy [20], boasts a highly competitive and globally prominent construction industry [21,22]. Turkish contractors have established a formidable international reputation, leveraging competitive advantages that include risk appetite, successful joint ventures, and geographical proximity to key markets [1,23]. This is evidenced by their consistent high rankings in the Engineering News-Record (ENR) “World’s 250 Largest International Contractors List”, where Türkiye ranked second globally in 2024 with 43 firms represented [24].

The growing annual trade volume between Türkiye and Poland, with a shared target of $10 billion, highlights a strengthening economic relationship. A visible manifestation of this is the increasing presence of Turkish construction companies in significant Polish infrastructure, commercial, and residential projects [25]. This heightened activity, combined with Poland’s expanding market and Türkiye’s proven contracting prowess, creates a compelling context for analysis. Therefore, this study aims to address the following research question: “What are the key sources of competitive advantage that enable Turkish contractors to operate successfully in the Polish construction market?” or, alternatively phrased, “How do Turkish contractors achieve and sustain competitive advantage in Poland?”

To address this central research question, this study advances a robust analytical framework designed to systematically identify, categorize, and evaluate the sources of competitive advantage for Turkish contractors operating in Poland. The originality of the research lies in a multi-faceted methodological design that integrates two complementary analytical lenses. First, drawing on a comprehensive literature review and an in-depth case examination of major infrastructure projects, Porter’s Diamond Framework was applied to deconstruct the current competitive landscape. Second, the inquiry was extended beyond a static snapshot by employing a Foresight Analysis that develops plausible future scenarios and identifies sustainable strategies for an evolving European construction market. By synthesizing a retrospective diagnosis with a forward-looking strategic outlook, the study offers a holistic perspective that is largely absent from existing scholarship. The resulting framework and findings provide value on multiple fronts: they offer an evidence-based strategic roadmap for Turkish firms seeking to deepen their engagement in Europe; they contribute a nuanced case study to the academic discourse on international business and construction management; and they deliver actionable insights for policymakers in both Türkiye and Poland to foster more effective and mutually beneficial economic collaboration.

Accordingly, this study is guided by the following research objectives and questions. First, to analyze how Turkish contractors develop competitive advantages in Poland through the application of Porter’s Diamond Model. Second, to explore plausible future scenarios for Turkish contractors up to 2035 using a structured foresight approach. Third, to derive strategic and policy implications that can inform both industry practitioners and policymakers. These objectives are articulated in three research questions: (1) How do Turkish contractors build competitive advantages in the Polish construction market? (2) What future scenarios can be anticipated for Turkish contractors in Poland through 2035? and (3) What strategic and policy implications can be drawn to support sustainable competitiveness in this context?

2. Literature Review

Achieving competitive advantage in the construction industry, a valuable asset for firms, depends on differentiating through pricing, quality, timely completion, and innovative technologies, all driven by strategic orientation and organizational capabilities [26]. Turkish contractors began internationalizing in the 1970s, starting with Libya [6], and expanded into regions with linguistic and cultural similarities like the Russian Federation and several Middle Eastern and Central Asian countries by 2000 [27]. Beyond low-cost labor and rapid project completion, the international success of Turkish contractors is attributable to their willingness to take risks and employ highly skilled engineers. Collaboration with foreign firms through joint ventures and subcontracting has enhanced their managerial, technical, and communication skills in multinational contexts [7], fostering the confidence to tackle increasingly challenging projects. While these firms possess substantial experience and a positive reputation in international contracting [28], continuous efforts to improve competitiveness and corporate performance are essential for sustained revenue growth.

Sustaining competitive advantage requires Turkish contractors to focus on markets where their cost-effectiveness is an asset, while differentiating through integrated solutions, innovative designs, and strong client relationships facilitated by value engineering [29]. Building a positive company image was prioritized as a driver of long-term profitability, with firms focusing on either service quality (for those targeting the private sector) or company image and innovation (for those employing a differentiation strategy) [30]. Furthermore, a rigorous partner selection process, considering experience, reputation, client relationships, and financial and technical capabilities, is crucial for successful partnerships [31]. Turkish firms’ international competitiveness stems from a combination of factors beyond low labor costs and geographical proximity, including a competitively priced and skilled workforce, quality improvements driven by a dynamic domestic market, strong industrial clusters, risk-taking, and effective management. Key drivers of their competitive position also include cost advantages from efficient operations, high productivity, effective communication, accumulated experience, strong client relationships, a strategic risk-taking approach, and robust supporting sub-sectors [1,7].

The influence of strategic group membership on performance within the construction industry is context-specific and may not be generalizable across different countries [27]. A lack of strategic management culture and the country’s unstable economic and political climate drive these firms to favor domestic private sector projects and international expansion as more stable alternatives [28]. This environment also contributes to a prevalent tendency among Turkish contractors towards short-term strategic planning due to perceived diminishing future prospects [32]. Turkish and U.S. construction firms both employ competitive strategies based on mode and scope, but their approaches differ: Turkish firms prioritize cost and quality, while leading U.S. firms focus on quality and innovation [33]. The UK and Turkish construction industries are aligning ICT and business strategies, with the UK showing more advanced integration. The UK’s ICT departments contribute to business improvement and strategy, whereas Turkish ICT departments are still largely focused on technical support. While both invest in ICT for cost reduction and value-adding, the UK is shifting towards an organizational level, whereas Turkey remains focused on securing projects [34]. Despite a strong comparative advantage over some EU countries, driven by factors like a domestic recession, and aspirations to become high-tech EPC contractors, Turkish construction firms have a relatively small share of the international market [35].

The Turkish construction sector exhibits a strong international presence, operating in 57 countries and undertaking 316 projects totaling USD 28.6 billion as of 2024 [24]. Cumulatively, from 1972 to 2024, Turkish contracting companies have completed 12,461 projects across 137 countries. The sector’s revenue between 2020 and 2024 demonstrates dynamism and resilience (Figure 1), highlighting its global competitiveness and the importance of strategic planning, risk management, and diversification [36]. Sustained growth necessitates maintaining advantages in cost-effectiveness, skilled labor, and project management, coupled with embracing innovation and sustainability. Similarly, the number of Turkish contractors listed in the ENR Top 250 International Contractors (Figure 2) underscores a sector characterized by resilience and a consistent international presence. After an initial dip, the steady increase in representation reflects the industry’s adaptability and its ability to secure global projects. This consistent presence among top international firms highlights Turkish contractors’ established capabilities and their significant contribution to the global construction industry.

Ozorhon et al.’s [37] analysis of competitive factors in the Turkish construction industry highlights a multifaceted framework encompassing both internal capabilities and external environmental considerations (Figure 3). Key internal elements include well-defined strategies, robust organizational and managerial capabilities, readily available technical and human resources, and sound financial footing. Equally important are external factors such as favorable market conditions, a thorough understanding of host country conditions, and strong, mutually beneficial relationships with stakeholders. These interconnected factors shape the competitive landscape for Turkish construction firms. In support, Birgonul and Ozdogan [29] identified distinct competitive advantages for Turkish contractors, including cultural, linguistic, and religious familiarity, a propensity for risk-taking, low labor costs, effective strategic management, affordable skilled personnel, accessible financial resources, rapid project delivery, high-quality standards, positive client relations, and favorable government relationships. Furthermore, Dikmen and Birgonul [30] outlined potential strengths and weaknesses for Turkish contractors, encompassing financial resources, technical and technological capabilities, managerial expertise, organizational structure, cost-effectiveness, product and service quality, human resources, marketing proficiency, IT utilization, company image, service innovation, experience, research and development efforts, client relations, and relationships with competitors.

In conclusion, the Turkish construction sector’s international activities, characterized by a broad geographic reach, substantial project volume, and consistent representation among top global contractors, highlight its dynamism and resilience. This success is underpinned by a complex interplay of internal capabilities and external factors and is further reinforced by distinct competitive advantages such as cultural familiarity, cost-effectiveness, and strong government support. The ongoing assessment and management of strengths and weaknesses are crucial for sustaining this competitive edge and ensuring continued success in the ever-evolving global construction landscape.

Beyond classical competitiveness perspectives, recent research provides three complementary lenses that are directly relevant to this study. First, the transnational entrepreneurship literature shows how cross-border entrepreneurs leverage diasporic networks, intercultural competencies, and resource arbitrage to convert “foreignness” into competitive advantage—mechanisms consistent with Turkish contractors’ partnering and relational strategies in Poland [38]. Second, contemporary work on Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) positions the region as a learning laboratory, emphasizing internationalization decisions—entry mode, speed, ownership, and process—rather than static end-states [38]. Within this decision-centric view, evidence from Poland shows that managerial perceptions of formal and informal institutional distance shape ownership levels (e.g., preference for joint ventures vs. wholly owned subsidiaries), and these effects are asymmetric depending on whether host institutions are more or less developed than those at home [39]. Third, building sustained advantage increasingly depends on dynamic capabilities (sensing, seizing, reconfiguring) that enhance project-portfolio agility and, in turn, performance—an approach well-suited to project-based construction firms [40]. In parallel, research indicates that collaboration mediates the link between causal market selection and effectual entry, aligning selection/entry logics with international performance outcomes [41]. Finally, large-firm evidence from CEE shows that age, size, and performance bolster internationalization propensity, offering boundary conditions that fit the profile of leading Turkish contractors [41].

3. Methodology

This study employs a qualitative research design, centered on an in-depth, single-case study methodology to investigate the sustainable competitive advantage of Turkish contractors in the Polish construction market. The Turkish construction firm Gülermak was selected as an exemplary case due to its significant and diverse portfolio of large-scale infrastructure projects in Poland, making it a representative subject for analyzing the dynamics of market entry, operation, and success. The methodological approach is twofold, combining a retrospective analysis of existing competitive advantages with a prospective exploration of future strategic positioning.

3.1. Data Collection and Case Analysis

The evidentiary basis for this study was established through a comprehensive document analysis of publicly available secondary data. This approach was chosen to build a robust and verifiable account of both the macro-level Polish construction industry and Gülermak’s specific project engagements. The data collection process was systematic and multi-sourced to ensure reliability and validity. Primary data were meticulously collated from official institutional publications, including:

• Project reports and policy documents from the European Commission.
• Financial and technical disclosures from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the European Investment Bank (EIB).
• Official reports from Polish governmental bodies, notably the General Directorate for National Roads and Motorways (GDDKiA) and the Ministry of Infrastructure.
• Corporate communications, project portfolios, and financial statements from Gülermak A.Ş. submitted to Turkey’s Public Disclosure Platform (KAP).
• Information from partner company disclosures (e.g., Budimex S.A.) and specialized industry journals (e.g., Railway Gazette, Railway PRO).

To ensure accuracy, all data points were systematically triangulated across these diverse sources. Furthermore, for standardized comparison and analysis, financial values originally cited in Polish Złoty (PLN) were converted to Euros (€) using historical exchange rates relevant to the project timelines.

3.2. Analytical Framework

The analytical process was conducted in two distinct but complementary stages. The first stage diagnosed the current sources of competitive advantage, while the second stage explored future trajectories and strategic implications.

Stage 1: Diagnosis of Current Competitive Advantage using Porter’s Diamond Framework

To systematically identify and categorize the sources of current competitive advantage, Porter’s Diamond Framework was employed. This model is exceptionally well-suited for analyzing how a national industry or its firms can achieve and sustain success in an international context. The analysis was structured around the framework’s four core determinants and two external variables:

• Factor Conditions: Examining advantages related to labor (skilled and low-cost), resources, and infrastructure.
• Demand Conditions: Assessing how the nature of demand in the Polish market shapes the capabilities of Turkish contractors.
• Related and Supporting Industries: Investigating the role of the Turkish construction materials supply chain and other supporting sectors.
• Firm Strategy, Structure, and Rivalry: Analyzing the entrepreneurial capabilities, management strategies, and competitive behaviors of Turkish firms.
• The Role of Government and Chance: Considering the influence of both Polish and Turkish government policies, as well as fortuitous events, on the competitive landscape.

This framework allowed for a structured deconstruction of the complex interplay of factors contributing to the success of firms like Gülermak in Poland [10,42].

Stage 2: Exploration of Future Scenarios using Foresight Analysis

To complement the static assessment provided by the Diamond Model and to address the dynamic, uncertain nature of the international construction market, a foresight analysis was conducted. This forward-looking approach enables the exploration of plausible future developments and the formulation of robust strategies.

The foresight process was structured in three steps. To ensure methodological transparency, the identification of trends and uncertainties was grounded in an extensive review of national strategic documents, energy transition plans, and construction market reports. Driving forces included Poland’s National Building Renovation Plans, which set the trajectory toward zero-emission building stock [43], large-scale infrastructure initiatives such as the Central Communication Port [44], and significant grid investments planned by the national transmission system operator. Strategic energy transitions outlined in ORLEN’s Strategy 2035 [45] further shaped the framework, while construction market forecasts projected continued sectoral growth, with the Polish market expected to expand from USD 93.9 billion in 2025 to USD 124 billion by 2030 [46] and European infrastructure construction forecast to grow at nearly 5% annually through 2035 [47]. Short-term cyclical risks, including stagnation in construction activity, were also highlighted in ING Research’s 2025 outlook [48]. This study relies on publicly available secondary sources (national strategies, market reports, project disclosures) triangulated across independent datasets for consistency and replicability. Given scope and access constraints, primary data was not collected; instead, a structured expert workshop to challenge and refine trend and uncertainty selection was used. While this design provides a verifiable evidentiary trail and a transparent scenario-building process, it cannot capture the full range of stakeholder perspectives. Therefore, treat all inferences as analytically plausible rather than definitive and identify survey- and interview-based validation as a priority for future work.

• Identification of Key Trends and Critical Uncertainties: B Based on these reports, key driving forces shaping the Polish construction market through 2035 were identified, including decarbonisation targets, infrastructure modernization, and digitalisation. Critical uncertainties encompassed geopolitical dynamics, regulatory adaptation, and the technological upgrading of Turkish contractors [43,44,45,48].
• Construction of Plausible Future Scenarios: By combining these uncertainties in a 2 × 2 matrix, four distinct and plausible scenarios were developed—“Carpathian Eagles”, “Reliable Subcontractor”, “Niche Specialist”, and “Fading Footprint”. Each scenario was substantiated by sector-specific forecasts [46,47] and aligned with national infrastructure and energy strategies [43,44,45].
• Derivation of Strategic Recommendations: Strategic implications were drawn from these scenarios to identify “no-regrets” strategies—actions beneficial across all plausible futures. Recommendations were reinforced by documented investment trends, regulatory trajectories, and technological adoption patterns projected to 2035 [43,44,45,48].

Although this study provides project-level insights from Gülermak’s portfolio, future research should incorporate performance indicators (e.g., completion rates, cost efficiencies) and direct stakeholder perspectives to further validate and enrich the findings. In addition to documentary analysis, the foresight framework was informed by discussions with construction sector experts during a dedicated workshop, where the identified trends and uncertainties were debated and refined. While these consultations added practical grounding to the scenario-building process, they did not follow the formal procedures of a Delphi study. Therefore, structured expert consultation methods such as Delphi are highlighted as a valuable extension for future research, which could further strengthen the empirical robustness of foresight analysis in the construction industry.

4. Findings

4.1. The Polish National Transportation Infrastructure Landscape

Table 1. Poland’s National Infrastructure Programs.

Project Name/Program	Budget (€)	Timeline	Financing Model/Source
Motorway & Expressway Network Expansion	63 billion	Started: 2004 Target: 2033	EU Funds State Budget (GDDKiA) Public–Private Partnership (PPP) International Loans
Via Carpatia International Route	7.5 billion	Started: 2015 Target: 2029	EU Funds State Budget (GDDKiA) European Investment Bank (EIB)
100 New Ring Roads Program	6.5 billion	Started: 2021 Target: 2030	State Budget (GDDKiA) EU Funds
Warsaw Eastern Ring Road	1 billion	Started: 2010 Targeted: 2030	State Budget (GDDKiA) European Investment Bank (EIB)
National Railway Programme (KPK)	17 billion	Started: 2014 Targeted: 2030	EU Funds PKP PLK, Railway Fund
Rail Baltica Corridor (Białystok-Ełk Section)	1.4 billion	Planned: 2025–2029	EU’s Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) PKP PLK, Railway Fund
Solidarity Transport Hub (STH/CPK)—Airport	8.6 billion	Planned: 2026–	State Budget EU Funds Loans
Solidarity Transport Hub (STH/CPK)—Rail Network	30 billion	Planned: 2025–	State Budget EU Funds Loans

synthesizes Poland’s national transport transformation, a programmatic portfolio financed by domestic and EU sources. Overall, scale and diversification are striking, with road and rail pipelines relying on EU funds and EIB lending, complemented by the state budget. On roads, GDDKiA’s Motorway & Expressway Network Expansion (€63 billion) targets growth from 720 km (2004) to 8000 km by 2033, alongside Via Carpatia (€7.5 billion) and 100 New Ring Roads (€6.5 billion) [49]; yet implementation risks persist, as the Warsaw Eastern Ring Road (€1 billion) has slipped to 2032–2035 amid environmental objections [50]. On rail, the National Railway Programme (KPK; €17 billion to 2030) anchors modernization, including the Białystok–Ełk segment of Rail Baltica (€1.4 billion; 2025–2029) with tenders planned in 2024–2025 [51,52,53]. The strategy culminates in the STH/CPK megaproject—a new central airport (€8.6 billion) plus a high-speed rail network (€30 billion), totaling €38.6 billion [54,55]—underlining Poland’s commitment to regional accessibility and trans-European connectivity.

4.2. Gülermak’s Strategic Engagement and Project Portfolio in Poland

Within this dynamic infrastructure landscape,

Table 2. Projects Undertaken by Gülermak in Poland.

Project Name	Partners	Budget (€)	Timeline	Financing Model/Source
Warsaw Metro Line II (Central Section)	Astaldi Gülermak PBDiM	900 million	Started: 2010 Completed: 2015	EU Funds National Budget
Warsaw Metro Line II (Phase II Western Extension)	Astaldi Gülermak	274 million	Started: 2015 Completed: 2022	EU Funds European Investment Bank (EIB)
Warsaw S2 Expressway (Contract B)	Gülermak PBDiM Mińsk	176 million	Started: 2015 Completed: 2021	EU Funds EIB National Budget
Świnoujście Tunnel	PORR PORR Bau Gülermak Energopol-Szczecin	195 million	Started: 2018 Planned: 2022	EU Funds National Budget
Kraków High-Speed Tram (Phase IV)	City of Kraków & PPP Solutions Polska 2 Gülermak	460 million	Started: 2023 Planned: 2025	Public–Private Partnership (PPP) EIB EBRD financing
S19 Expressway (Jawornik–Lutcza Section)	Gülermak Budimex	440 million	Started: 2024 Planned: 2031	Design-Build National Budget
Kraków S52 & S7 Expressways	Gülermak Mosty Lodz	400 million	Started: 2024 Planned: 2026	EU Funds National Budget
Warsaw Metro Line 1 Radio Modernization	Gülermak	7 million	na	na
na: not available

summarizes Gülermak’s Polish transport portfolio and underscores its leading role in large urban rail and expressway schemes. Overall, Gülermak’s portfolio is concentrated in large, mobility-centric projects where EU co-financing and consortium delivery are prevalent, aligning with the capability mix analyzed later in the Diamond. For instance, Warsaw Metro Line II (≈€900 million) and its €274 million Phase II extension were delivered by an international consortium including Gülermak and were substantially supported by the EU Cohesion Fund [56,57,58]. As a complementary financing model, the Kraków High-Speed Tram (Phase IV) constitutes Poland’s first PPP in urban rail, with a total investment of €460 million financed through the EIB and EBRD [58,59]. Together, these cases illustrate the EU-funded and PPP modalities that dominate the portfolio presented in Table 2.

5. Analysis and Discussion

This section interprets the findings presented in the previous chapter by applying the two-pronged analytical framework outlined in the methodology. First, Porter’s Diamond Framework is utilized to deconstruct the existing sources of competitive advantage for Turkish contractors in Poland. Second, a foresight analysis is conducted to explore plausible future scenarios and derive robust strategic recommendations for sustaining this advantage in a dynamic market environment.

5.1. Analysis of Competitive Advantage: Porter’s Diamond Framework

The success of Turkish contractors like Gülermak in the highly competitive Polish construction market can be systematically explained through the determinants of Porter’s Diamond Framework (see Figure 4). The analysis reveals that their advantage is not derived from a single factor but from a complex and synergistic interplay of the model’s components, which include factor conditions, demand conditions, related and supporting industries, and firm strategy, structure, and rivalry, alongside the external influences of government and chance.

Factor Conditions: Historically, the competitive advantage of Turkish contractors was strongly associated with low-cost labor and materials [10]. However, as the findings and recent literature suggest, this paradigm is evolving. The Polish construction market is characterized by a persistent shortage of skilled labor, exacerbated by emigration [13]. This creates a critical market need that aligns perfectly with a core strength of Turkish firms: their extensive experience in managing large, diverse, and skilled workforces, often mobilized for international projects [29]. Therefore, the advantage shifts from low-cost labor to superior labor management and mobilization capabilities. Furthermore, the robust Turkish domestic manufacturing sector for construction materials presents an opportunity to fill supply chain gaps in Poland with competitively priced goods, creating an additional factor-based advantage.

Demand Conditions: The findings clearly demonstrate that Poland presents sophisticated and demanding conditions. The market is not driven by simple projects but by large-scale, technically complex, and publicly funded infrastructure megaprojects, such as the Warsaw Metro Line II, the Świnoujście Tunnel, and the Via Carpatia expressway network. This demanding environment forces contractors to develop and deploy advanced technical and managerial capabilities. For Turkish firms, this serves as a catalyst, compelling them to move beyond cost-competitiveness and leverage their experience in complex domestic projects to meet the high standards of EU-funded tenders. The sheer scale of planned investment, detailed in Table 1, ensures a predictable, high-volume pipeline of projects, which is a significant pull factor.

Related and Supporting Industries: The international success of Turkish contractors is underpinned by a strong domestic industrial cluster. This includes a competitive construction materials production industry and a deep pool of experienced engineers and technical personnel. This domestic ecosystem provides a solid foundation, enabling firms like Gülermak to enter foreign markets with reliable supply chains and human resources, a factor identified as crucial for competitiveness [1,7].

The Role of Government and Chance: The role of government is twofold. The Polish government, as the primary client and a facilitator of EU funding, is the most important customer [60]. Simultaneously, supportive policies from the Turkish government for international contracting create a favorable environment for expansion [10]. The element of “chance” is also significant; the long-standing positive historical relationship between Türkiye and Poland, coupled with a burgeoning $10 billion trade target, creates a uniquely welcoming environment that reduces informal entry barriers and fosters trust.

Table 3. Aligning Turkish contractor strengths with Polish construction industry needs.

Diamond Framework	Related and Supporting Industries	Factor Conditions	Firm Strategy, Structure, and Rivalry	Demand Conditions	The Role of Chance	The Role of Government
Competitive advantages of Turkish contractors	Construction materials production	Low cost and skilled labour	Superior entrepreneurial capabilities	Experience in complex projects at home	Cultural and geographic adaptability	The most important customer
	Construction equipment manufacturing	Skilled and experienced engineers	Intense domestic rivalry	Experience in public projects
		Experienced in challenging environments	Flexibility and responsiveness
Needs of Polish construction industry	Supply chain gaps	Specialized expertise	Competitive advantage through efficiency	Sophisticated infrastructure	International collaborations	Infrastructure development
		Capital access	Strategic alliances	Focus on sustainability & efficiency		Allocating EU funding
		Skilled labor management	Reputation and track record

distills how Turkish strengths (workforce mobilization, JV partnering, complex delivery) directly map to Poland’s binding constraints (labor gaps, high technical complexity), while making visible the residual gaps in ESG/BIM where capability upgrading is required. This alignment underpins their sustainable competitive advantage in Poland.

Consistent with recent CEE evidence, governance choices are not only a function of objective institutional distance but also of managers’ perceived formal/informal gaps; these perceptions can tilt ownership toward joint ventures in more uncertain or institutionally distant settings [61]. This perception-sensitive view complements the Diamond analysis by clarifying when partnership-based market entry best leverages Turkish contractors’ relational strengths.

Competitive Disadvantages and Risks

While Turkish contractors demonstrate considerable strengths in labor management, partnerships, and complex project delivery [62], the literature also highlights a number of competitive disadvantages that may undermine their long-term positioning in Poland. Studies emphasize gaps in design and engineering capabilities as well as weaknesses in formal risk management practices, which reduce resilience in complex or high-risk projects [7]. Financial constraints are another structural vulnerability, as Turkish firms often face higher borrowing costs and limited access to long-term credit compared to European competitors, making it difficult to independently undertake large-scale PPP projects without strategic alliances [29]. Organizational issues such as high employee turnover, limited foreign language skills, and unsupportive corporate cultures further hinder international integration [7]. Additionally, bureaucratic and social security procedures may lead to cost disadvantages when deploying Turkish labor abroad, resulting in higher effective costs than local alternatives [63]. Compliance gaps in occupational health and safety standards pose further challenges, particularly in EU-funded projects with strict ESG requirements. Finally, institutional barriers in EU procurement systems, where transparency rules and strong local networks often favor European competitors, can create further entry challenges for Turkish contractors. Integrating these risks into the discussion allows for a more balanced assessment of both strengths and vulnerabilities, providing a comprehensive understanding of the competitive landscape. These findings are summarized in

Table 4. Competitive Strengths vs. Vulnerabilities of Turkish contractors.

Competitive Strengths	Competitive Vulnerabilities
Strong labor management and mobilization capacity	Gaps in design and engineering expertise
Extensive experience in large-scale infrastructure projects	Weak formal risk management practices
Ability to form joint ventures and partnerships	Financing constraints in PPP projects, limited access to long-term credit
Risk appetite and adaptability in foreign markets	Organizational issues: high employee turnover, limited foreign language skills, weak corporate culture
Competitive project delivery under tight deadlines	Cost disadvantages in labor deployment abroad
Positive reputation in the Polish market (case evidence: Gülermak)	Compliance gaps in OHS and ESG standards
	EU procurement and institutional barriers

, which contrasts the competitive strengths and vulnerabilities of Turkish contractors in the Polish construction market.

5.2. Foresight Analysis: Future Scenarios and Strategic Implications

While Porter’s Diamond explains the current success, a forward-looking analysis is essential to map out strategies for its sustainability. The dynamic nature of the Polish construction market, shaped by both predictable trends and significant uncertainties, necessitates a strategic foresight approach. This analysis proceeds by first identifying key driving forces and critical uncertainties shaping the operational environment through 2035. Subsequently, these elements are used to construct four plausible future scenarios. Finally, robust “no-regrets” strategies are derived, providing actionable guidance for Turkish contractors to navigate any of these potential futures successfully.

In addition, internationalization research indicates that collaboration is a key mechanism translating both causal foreign-market selection and effectual entry decisions into international performance, reconciling planning-led and partnership-led logics in uncertain markets [41]. This helps explain why Turkish contractors’ joint ventures and relational strategies are robust across scenarios in Poland.

• Key Driving Forces and Inevitable Trends (The “Certainties”)

These are powerful, long-term trends grounded in existing policies and market fundamentals that will almost certainly shape the future operating environment.

The Unwavering Infrastructure Push: As detailed in the findings (Table 1), Poland’s commitment to modernizing its road and rail networks is a deeply embedded national and European strategic priority. Megaprojects like the Solidarity Transport Hub (STH/CPK), the continued expansion of the Via Carpatia corridor, and the comprehensive modernization of the railway system (KPK) will provide a high-volume pipeline of complex, high-value projects for at least the next decade. This constitutes a stable and predictable source of demand.

The Green Imperative (ESG Dominance): Driven by the European Green Deal, future tenders will increasingly prioritize and mandate low-carbon construction materials, energy-efficient designs, circular economy principles, and biodiversity protection. ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) compliance will shift from a desirable attribute to a non-negotiable prerequisite for winning major contracts, directly impacting material sourcing, design, and construction methods.

The Digital Transformation of Construction: The adoption of technologies like Building Information Modeling (BIM) for full project lifecycle management, digital twins, and off-site prefabrication will accelerate. EU funding regulations are increasingly tied to digital compliance, and clients like GDDKiA and PKP PLK will demand these technologies to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance quality control.

Persistent Labor Market Pressures: Poland’s demographic trends and economic convergence with Western Europe ensure that the skilled labor shortage will remain a defining challenge. This creates a sustained demand for efficient labor management, international workforce integration, and automation technologies, playing directly into a traditional strength of Turkish contractors.

• Critical Uncertainties (The “Game-Changers”)

These are the high-impact, high-uncertainty factors whose outcomes are not predetermined and will significantly alter the strategic landscape. The two most critical uncertainties for this collaboration are:

The Nature of the Geopolitical & Economic Alliance: Will the political and economic relationship between Türkiye and Poland (and by extension, the EU) deepen into a strategic, long-term alliance, or will it remain transactional and susceptible to geopolitical volatility? A strategic alliance could lead to preferential trade agreements and government-backed partnerships. A volatile relationship could introduce political risk and a less predictable business environment.

The Pace of Turkish Technological & Strategic Evolution: Will Turkish contractors successfully transition from a model primarily reliant on cost-competitiveness to one driven by high-technology, proprietary engineering know-how, and sophisticated financial engineering? Or will they be out-competed by Western European or Asian firms that are further ahead in technological adoption and ESG compliance?

• Plausible Future Scenarios (2035)

By combining these two critical uncertainties on a 2 × 2 matrix, we can map four distinct, plausible future scenarios for Turkish contractors in Poland.

Scenario 1: The Carpathian Eagles (Strategic Alliance & Advanced Capabilities): In this optimal future, strong political ties have created a seamless business environment. Turkish contractors have successfully evolved, becoming leaders in green construction technology, digital project delivery (BIM Level 3+), and complex PPP financing models. They are no longer just builders; they are strategic development partners, leading major consortia for key components of the STH/CPK and co-investing in Polish manufacturing facilities. This scenario corresponds to the optimistic “Green Alignment and Expansion”.

Scenario 2: The Reliable Subcontractor (Strategic Alliance & Cost-Based Capabilities): Here, positive bilateral relations ensure Turkish firms are welcome partners. However, they have been slower to innovate. Their primary competitive advantage remains efficient project execution and superior labor management. They secure significant work but primarily as junior partners in consortia led by more technologically advanced firms. Their role is crucial but confined to the construction phase, with limited influence on high-value design and finance. This reflects the moderate scenario of “Partial Adaptation, Selective Success”.

Scenario 3: The Niche Specialist (Transactional Relations & Advanced Capabilities): In this future, the political relationship is cool and unpredictable. However, a handful of Turkish companies have made significant R&D investments and are now global leaders in specific high-tech niches (e.g., advanced tunnel boring in complex geology). They are sought after for very specific, technically demanding components of Polish megaprojects, commanding high margins but lacking broad market stability.

Scenario 4: The Fading Footprint (Transactional Relations & Cost-Based Capabilities): This is the most challenging scenario. The political environment is unfavorable, and Turkish firms have failed to evolve beyond their traditional cost-based model. As Polish labor costs rise and EU clients demand higher ESG compliance, the Turkish value proposition erodes. Their market share shrinks dramatically, aligning with the pessimistic “Misalignment and Decline” scenario.

• Strategic Implications and “No-Regrets” Recommendations

To navigate these potential futures, Turkish contractors should adopt a dual strategy: shaping their preferred future (Scenario 1) while building resilience against unfavorable ones. This leads to several “no-regrets” strategies that are valuable across all scenarios:

Accelerate Technological and ESG Up-skilling: Invest aggressively in building world-class capabilities in BIM, digital project management, and sustainable construction practices (e.g., obtaining certifications like LEED, BREEAM, ISO 14001). This is the primary defense against becoming an irrelevant, low-cost provider (Scenario 4) and is the key to unlocking the “Carpathian Eagles” future (Scenario 1).

Forge Deep, Embedded Local Partnerships: Move beyond temporary, project-based consortia to establish long-term joint ventures with reputable Polish engineering firms, material suppliers, and academic institutions. This builds local trust, improves legal and regulatory alignment, and provides insulation against the political volatility inherent in the “transactional” scenarios (Scenarios 3 & 4).

Develop Vertical Integration and Financial Engineering: Evolve from being just a contractor to a development partner. Build in-house expertise in project finance, understanding EBRD and EIB requirements, and structuring complex PPP models. Combining construction with material supply and finance allows firms to add value at the earliest, most lucrative stages of a project.

Foster Strategic Workforce Development: Leverage the advantage in labor management by establishing joint training programs with Polish firms and technical universities. A strategic workforce exchange can help close the skilled labor gap in Poland while up-skilling the Turkish labor pool to meet advanced European standards.

Engage Proactively with Policymakers: Actively engage with both Polish and Turkish policymakers to ensure that national investment strategies remain aligned with EU infrastructure trends and funding mechanisms. This helps secure the long-term project pipeline and fosters a more stable and predictable operating environment.

Implementation Pathways for No-Regrets Strategies

The foresight analysis identified four “no-regrets” strategies—ESG up-skilling, digital transformation, financial engineering, and human capital development—as essential for sustaining competitiveness. These findings are consistent with and reinforced by previous studies highlighting the structural challenges faced by Turkish contractors. For instance, the emphasis on ESG up-skilling directly addresses well-documented deficiencies in occupational health and safety and the lack of institutionalized ESG practices in the Turkish construction sector [62]. Similarly, the prioritization of digital transformation aligns with evidence that Turkish firms encounter significant barriers in adopting BIM and related technologies due to high costs, skill shortages, and organizational resistance [64]. The strategy of financial engineering reflects the reality that Turkish contractors often struggle to secure financing for large-scale infrastructure projects, with prior research identifying exchange rate volatility, inflation, and fiscal liabilities as major risks in PPP schemes [65,66,67]. Finally, the focus on human capital and cross-cultural competence echoes earlier findings that Turkish firms face bureaucratic and cultural obstacles when deploying labor abroad, and that structured cross-cultural training can significantly improve project performance [63,68]. By linking these foresight-based strategies with established evidence, the analysis not only underscores their criticality but also demonstrates that their effective implementation requires addressing persistent structural vulnerabilities identified in the literature. This phasing aligns with recent evidence that dynamic capabilities enhance portfolio agility, which mediates the pathway to portfolio-level success; critically, at least two of sensing, seizing, and reconfiguring must be strong to yield agility gains [40].

To strengthen the coherence between findings and policy implications, the recommendations have been explicitly aligned with the competitive dynamics identified in the study. The foresight and diamond analyses underscored Turkish contractors’ strong capabilities in labor management and mobilization, which directly informs a policy recommendation to establish bilateral labor agreements and joint vocational training programs between Turkey and Poland. Such initiatives would help address Poland’s skilled labor shortages while ensuring compliance with EU labor standards. Likewise, the proven ability of Turkish firms to form partnerships and joint ventures supports the recommendation for government-facilitated cross-border alliances, including incentives for consortium participation in EU-funded projects. Finally, the vulnerabilities revealed in ESG compliance and digital transformation translate into actionable policy measures, such as EU–Turkey knowledge transfer platforms on BIM and sustainability standards, potentially co-financed through EU cohesion funds. By directly linking these measures to the empirical findings, the policy implications become more relevant and operational for decision-makers. To provide greater clarity,

Table 5. No-Regrets Strategies and Implementation Pathways.

Strategy (No-Regrets)	Implementation Pathway (Phased Actions)	Potential Obstacles
ESG Up-skilling	Obtain BREEAM/LEED certifications within 3–5 years; allocate annual ESG training budgets; establish joint programs with Polish universities	High upfront certification costs; limited ESG expertise; compliance challenges
Digital Transformation	Start with BIM pilots; expand to digital twins in large-scale projects; full portfolio adoption within 5 years	Shortage of skilled BIM professionals; software/training costs; organizational resistance
Financial Engineering/PPP Readiness	Develop in-house project finance teams; adopt blended finance tools (EU funds + export credits); structured risk-sharing frameworks	Exchange rate volatility; inflation; long approval processes
Human Capital & Cross-Cultural Competence	Launch retention programs; provide structured cross-cultural and language training; bilateral vocational training initiatives with Poland	Bureaucratic barriers for labor mobility; higher expatriate labor costs; cultural adaptation issues

outlines the four “no-regrets” strategies together with their phased implementation pathways and potential obstacles.

6. Conclusions and Future Directions

This study set out to identify and analyze the sources of sustainable competitive advantage for Turkish contractors operating in the Polish construction market. By employing a dual analytical approach that combines Porter’s Diamond Framework with a strategic foresight analysis, this research provides a holistic understanding of both the current success factors and the prospective challenges and opportunities. By integrating recent work on CEE internationalization, transnational entrepreneurship, and dynamic capabilities, the study situates Poland as a decision-centric, collaboration-intensive market where perceived institutional distance and portfolio agility jointly shape sustained competitiveness [38,39,40]. The findings demonstrate that the competitive advantage of Turkish contractors in Poland is not a relic of historical low-cost models but a dynamic and evolving construct rooted in a sophisticated synergy of strategic capabilities perfectly aligned with the specific demands of a modern European market. Conceptually, this extends international business scholarship by showing how a late-industrializing contractor can recombine labor mobilization, risk-sharing JVs, and digital/ESG upgrading into a transferable capability bundle—an addition to Diamond-based accounts that I operationalize with a foresight lens.

The analysis through Porter’s Diamond Framework reveals that Turkish firms’ primary advantages stem from their superior labor management and mobilization capabilities, which directly address Poland’s persistent skilled labor shortage. This is complemented by sophisticated firm strategies centered on risk mitigation through strategic local partnerships and a willingness to engage in complex project delivery models like PPPs. These internal strengths are amplified by Poland’s demanding conditions—a stable pipeline of large-scale, technically complex infrastructure projects—which act as a catalyst for capability development. The success is further facilitated by a uniquely favorable environment shaped by the dual support of Turkish and Polish governments and the long-standing positive historical relationship between the two nations. The synthesis of this analysis, presented in Table 3, clearly illustrates that Turkish contractors are not merely competing on cost but are delivering targeted value by filling critical capability gaps in the Polish market.

The findings of this study offer significant theoretical and practical implications. Theoretically, this research contributes to the international business literature by providing a contemporary case study that illustrates the shift in competitive advantage for firms from a developing economy away from traditional factor-cost advantages towards higher-value, knowledge-based capabilities such as strategic management and technological adoption. It reaffirms the utility of Porter’s Diamond Framework in a modern context while also highlighting the necessity of supplementing it with forward-looking tools like foresight analysis to capture market dynamics.

Practically, the implications for Turkish contractors are clear: sustainability in the European market hinges on continued strategic evolution. The “no-regrets” strategies identified—accelerating technological and ESG up-skilling, forging deep local partnerships, developing financial engineering capabilities, and fostering strategic workforce development—provide an actionable roadmap for moving up the value chain. For Polish clients and policymakers, this study highlights Turkish contractors as valuable strategic partners capable of more than just construction; they are a resource for mitigating labor shortages and successfully delivering complex infrastructure goals. For both governments, the findings underscore the value of fostering a stable geopolitical and economic alliance to maximize mutual benefits.

While this study provides valuable insights, it is subject to certain limitations that open avenues for future research. The primary limitation is its reliance on publicly available secondary data and its focus on a single exemplary case, Gülermak. Although this approach ensures a verifiable evidentiary basis, it does not capture the nuanced, on-the-ground perspectives of various stakeholders. Therefore, future research should prioritize primary data collection through comprehensive surveys and in-depth interviews with a wider range of Turkish contractors, Polish clients, government officials, and local partners. This would allow for a rigorous validation of the findings and a deeper, more granular understanding of the operational dynamics.

Furthermore, this study recognizes the strategic importance of exploring other European markets. Future research should extend this analytical framework to examine the competitive advantages and entry strategies of Turkish contractors in other, less-saturated but highly regulated markets, such as Germany, the Netherlands, and the Scandinavian countries. A comparative analysis of success factors across diverse European contexts would provide invaluable guidance for firms seeking to enhance their long-term global competitiveness. Finally, future studies should explicitly address the evolving role of government policies and digitalization. A deeper examination of government support programs, trade agreements, and the impact of digital transformation on project delivery will be crucial for creating a sustainable and resilient presence for Turkish contractors in the European construction landscape. Ultimately, this expanded research agenda will not only inform the strategic decision-making of individual firms but also contribute to the development of evidence-based policies that foster innovation and strengthen economic ties between Türkiye and its European partners.