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Opinion

Tropical Cyclones and Coral Reefs Under a Changing Climate: Prospects and Likely Synergies Between Future High-Energy Storms and Other Acute and Chronic Coral Reef Stressors

by
Stephen M. Turton
Research Division, Central Queensland University, Cairns 4870, Australia
Sustainability 2025, 17(17), 7651; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177651
Submission received: 9 July 2025 / Revised: 21 August 2025 / Accepted: 22 August 2025 / Published: 25 August 2025
(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Science and Management Approaches to Support Coral Reefs in a Time of Rapid Climate Change)
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Abstract

Shallow warm-water coral reefs are among the most biodiverse and valuable ecosystems on Earth, supporting a quarter of all marine life and delivering critical ecosystem services such as coastal protection, food security, and economic benefits through tourism and fisheries. However, these ecosystems are under escalating threat from anthropogenic climate change, with tropical cyclones representing their most significant high-energy storm disturbances. Approximately 70% of the world’s coral reefs lie within the tropical cyclone belt, where the frequency, intensity, and rainfall associated with tropical cyclones are changing due to global warming. Coral reefs already compromised by climate-induced stressors—such as marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise—are increasingly vulnerable to the compounding impacts of more intense and slower-moving cyclones. Projected changes in cyclone behaviour, including regional variations in storm intensity and rainfall, may further undermine coral reef resilience, pushing many reef systems toward irreversible degradation. Future impacts will be regionally variable but increasingly severe without immediate climate mitigation. Building reef resilience will require a combination of rapid global carbon emission reductions and ambitious adaptation strategies, including enhanced reef management and restoration and conservation efforts. The long-term survival of coral reefs now hinges on coordinated global action and support for reef-dependent communities.

1. Introduction

Shallow warm-water coral reefs (Figure 1) are crucial ecosystems due to their high biodiversity [1]. They harbour one quarter of all marine life [1], including over 800 species of hard coral species [1], hundreds of species of soft corals [1] and over 4000 species of fish [1]. The Indo-Pacific region (Figure 1) is known for having the highest concentration of both types of coral [2]. Coral reefs act as natural barriers, absorbing wave energy and protecting vulnerable coastlines from storm surges and beach erosion [3]. This is particularly important to low-lying island nations and coastal communities, reducing the risk of storm surge damage and loss of property and life during extreme weather events.
Coral reefs generate billions of dollars annually through tourism [4], fishing [4,5], and recreation [6], and provide a range of other valuable ecosystem services to humanity [7], including potential medicinal resources [8]. Importantly, they support local economies and provide food for hundreds of millions of people whose livelihoods rely on reef-related fishing and other activities [4,5,6]. Crucially, coral reefs hold significant cultural and spiritual significance for many Indigenous communities and coastal populations throughout the tropics [9].
Anthropogenic climate change poses the single greatest threat to coral reefs globally [10,11,12,13,14,15,16]. Threats to reefs are largely from global warming, fuelling increases in the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves and other extreme climatic events, while rising concentrations of CO2 from the combustion of fossil fuels are driving ocean acidification [10,11,13,14]. The planet’s atmosphere and oceans are expected to continue to warm this century, while other non-climatic threats to coral reefs are also expected to increase [16]. For these reasons, the long-term future for shallow-water coral reef ecosystems remains dire [13,14,15]. Understanding interactions between climate change and other threats to coral reefs is paramount to securing their long-term future in the Anthropocene.
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the most significant high-energy storm (HES) events affecting coral reef ecosystems globally [17,18,19]. Infrequent geophysical phenomena, such as seismic-generated high-energy waves from submarine earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, can also damage coral reefs [20]. Damage to coral reefs from HES events is largely dependent on the physical characteristics of individual TCs and the antecedent condition of impacted reef areas [17,18,19]. These powerful synoptic-scale weather systems are colloquially known as typhoons in the northwest Pacific and hurricanes in the northeast Pacific and Atlantic basins (Figure 1). TCs do not occur within about 5–7° of the Equator due to the lack of Coriolis Force, and in tropical ocean areas with sea surface temperatures below the critical threshold (26.5 °C) required for them to form and maintain cyclonic wind intensity (sustained winds > 63 km/h) [21]. Nonetheless, already formed TCs may occasionally move over cooler ocean waters in a weakening state and inflict some damage to higher-latitude coral reefs in their paths.
About 70% of the world’s shallow warm-water coral reefs lie in the tropical cyclone belt (Figure 1). This is a large ocean area that is subjected to TC impacts at various frequencies and intensities (Table 1). The damage caused by TCs can have long-lasting effects on coral reef ecosystems, affecting biodiversity and reef structure, and potentially altering the ability of reefs to provide essential ecosystem services [16,17,18,19]. Understanding interactions between TCs and coral reefs across this large region forms the basis of this opinion paper, together with describing historical changes in TC climatology and how this may likely change across this global region under future anthropogenic climate change. Importantly, how might future projected changes in TC frequency, wind and rain intensities, and their global distribution patterns interact with other acute and chronic stressors already impacting coral reefs around the world?

2. High-Energy Storm Events and Coral Reefs: Observed Patterns and Trends

2.1. Climatology of Tropical Cyclones

The frequency, intensity, size, and seasonality (climatology) of TCs varies greatly across the tropical ocean basins where they occur (Table 1). They are most common, intense, and large in the northwest Pacific basin, where they can occur in any month of the year. They are also relatively frequent in the northeast Pacific and Atlantic basins from about May to November, except for the Hawai’ian Islands where they are considered rare. The southwest Indian basin and the combined southeast Indian/southwest Pacific basins experience a moderate frequency of TCs between November and May. TCs are much less common in the north Indian basin, where they can occur in any month of the year. Finally, TCs are particularly rare in the southeast Pacific basin where they only occur during strong El Niño events, driven by the associated abnormally warm sea surface temperatures [24].
Anthropogenic climate change is already affecting the physical characteristics of TCs across ocean basins where they occur and interact with coral reefs (Figure 1, Table 1). There is high confidence that humans have contributed to increases in rainfall associated with TCs [22], and medium confidence that humans have contributed to the higher probability of a TC being more intense [22]. There is now medium confidence that there has been an increase in the average peak rainfall rates associated with TCs [22], which has increased the risk for riverine and flash flooding in coastal regions. This brings a greater risk for land-sourced contaminants in river flood plume events to adversely impact coral reefs closer to the coast [16,25,26].
Recently published evidence showed that, globally, TCs are intensifying more rapidly in recent decades [22], especially in the north Atlantic [27] and northwest Pacific basins [28]. At the same time, there has been general slowdown in the forward speed at which TCs move across Earth’s surface [29]. This brings an increased risk for prolonged periods of high wave energy and heavy rainfall for coral reefs and adjacent river basins in the path of TCs [16].
As the planet warms and the tropical atmosphere and oceans expand poleward [30], several studies have shown that the average location where TCs reach their peak intensity has also shifted poleward in both hemispheres [31]. This latitudinal shift in TC tracks may expose normally spared coral reefs to a greater risk of severe TCs and their associated wind and wave energy impacts (Figure 1, Table 1). Significant changes in TCs characteristics have serious implications for the status of coral reefs over the coming decades, particularly when combined with other chronic and acute stressors also impacting reefs (Figure 2).

2.2. Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on Coral Reefs

Ecological and physical impacts of TCs on coral reefs have been well described in the literature [16,17,18,19,32,33,34,35,36,37]. In the absence of significant anthropogenic stressors (Figure 2), coral reefs generally have a high resilience to TC damage, but low resistance if the eye of a TC passes directly over them, delivering high-energy waves [17,18,19]. Ecological resistance is the degree to which ecosystem characteristics remain unaffected by disturbance, while ecological resilience is the time required for an ecosystem to return to conditions that are indistinguishable from those prior to a disturbance event [38].
High-energy waves generated by TCs can break apart coral colonies, particularly those with more fragile structures [17,32,33,34,35,36,37]. Corals are typically smashed against each other or the seabed, resulting in significant breakage and dislodgement. In more extreme cases, the force of high-energy waves can alter the physical configuration of coral reefs, resulting in the destruction of reef structures and the creation of coral rubble beds [36]. Following a severe TC, there is a risk of rubble instability of damaged reef areas, making it difficult for new coral larvae to settle and grow on the substrate, hence hindering coral recovery [17,34,35].
In addition to direct impacts of high-energy waves and ocean swells on coral reefs, TCs can produce a range of indirect impacts on some exposed reefs following their passage over adjacent land areas. TCs often cause riverine flooding and increased runoff onto fringing and inshore reefs [16]. This runoff can carry sediments, pollutants, and excess nutrients from land-based activities into the reef environment, adversely impacting corals and other marine life [16,25]. The addition of freshwater river plumes from land runoff can change ocean salinity and further stress corals and other marine lifeforms on already cyclone-damaged reef areas [16,26].
The amount of structural or less severe damage to coral reefs from TCs is a function of storm intensity, storm circulation size, and forward motion [19,39]. Hence, an intense, large, and slow-moving TC will almost certainly inflict some degree of structural damage to a coral reef in its path of movement. By comparison, a less intense, small, and fast-moving TC can cause little or no structural damage as it crosses over the reef. Damage can instead consist of patchy breakage, exfoliation, and some dislodgement of sensitive coral species [32,33,34,35,36,37]. However, coral reefs do not have to be in the path of a TC to be adversely impacted. Given the right set of ocean conditions, a large and severe TC can damage reefs as far as 1000 km away from its central path [40].
The trajectory of TCs crossing coral reefs is another factor that will determine the spatial extent of structural and coral damage to reefs [19,39]. For coral reefs that have a general north/south main axis, such as the Great Barrier Reef and Belize Barrier Reef (Figure 1), a typical westward-moving TC will likely produce structural and coral damage over a relatively small portion of the total reef area, due to the perpendicular angle of crossing. Occasionally, severe TCs can have an impact over larger reef areas, as they follow path trajectories that result in them traversing a considerable distance along the main axes of the reefs. Such parallel trajectories often produce significant structural and coral damage to larger portions of the total reef areas [19].
While some studies suggest that reefs can recover from hurricane damage within a decade or so [17,19], this relies on the reefs having a certain level of intrinsic resilience. For example, while Jamaica’s coral reefs initially showed some signs of recovery after Hurricane Allen in 1979 [32], by 2001 they had not fully rebounded to their pre-disturbance state, especially in terms of community structure [17]. Concerningly, the degraded state of these coral reefs was still evident almost 40 years after Hurricane Allan [41]. It is highly likely that this is due to impacts from later hurricanes coupled with chronic human impacts like nutrient and sediment runoff, diseases, and overfishing, which have been said to have allowed a phase shift to macroalgae on many Jamaican coral reefs [41].
Coral reefs already acutely or chronically stressed by other anthropogenic drivers (Figure 2), such as poor water quality from land-based activities, coral bleaching following marine heatwaves, river plume events, overfishing, and invasive species, may show much lower resistance to wave energy and storm surges from TCs as they approach and move over such stressed reef ecosystems. Coral reefs that are already compromised by other anthropogenic stressors may also show slower rates of recovery (resilience) of their reef structure and species composition following a severe TC. Global warming threats to coral reefs are expected to increase in the future, with the magnitude of any changes to reefs being largely dependent on anthropogenic carbon emissions from now on [10,11,12,13,14,15,16,19].

3. High-Energy Storm Events and Coral Reefs: Future Patterns and Likely Trends

3.1. Projected Changes in Tropical Cyclones

Future changes in climate will likely affect the climatology of TCs differently across the world’s ocean basins (Table 1), which has important implications for their coral reefs [42] (Figure 1). One comprehensive study considered modelled changes in TCs across six TC basins for a 2 °C of global warming, relative to 1986–2005 conditions and based on the high RCP8.5 carbon emissions pathway [23]. The study analysed projected relative changes in TC frequency, frequency of severe category 4–5 TCs on the Saffir-Simpson scale [19], overall TC intensity, and TC rain rate. Globally, the mean TC frequency is projected to decline by 13%, the mean frequency of category 4–5 TCs to decline by 3%, the overall mean intensity of TCs to increase by 5%, and the mean TC rain rates to increase by 14%. However, projected changes in TC characteristics will likely vary greatly across tropical basins where they occur (Figure 1, Table 1).
Four TC basins are expecting a decline in overall TC frequency: the south Indian, southwest Pacific, north Atlantic, and northwest Pacific basins [23]. However, the northeast Pacific and north Indian basins are expecting little or no change in overall frequency. All basins are expecting an increase in overall TC intensity, particularly the northeast and northwest Pacific basins, followed by the south and north Indian basins. Smaller increases in overall intensity may be expected in the north Atlantic and southwest Pacific basins. Notably, not all TC basins examined in this study may expect an increase in the more severe category 4–5 storms. Only the northeast Pacific and north Atlantic basins show a large increase, while the north and southwest Indian basins show a small increase [23].
As the atmosphere and oceans warm with rising greenhouse gases from anthropogenic activities, rain intensity rates will certainly increase as a warm atmosphere can hold more moisture [22]. Hence, all six TC basins may expect an increase in rain rate events from TCs under global warming (Table 1). The largest projected mean percentage increase in TC rain rates is for the southwest Indian and northeast Pacific basins, while the smallest increase is projected for the southwest Pacific basin [23].

3.2. Future Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on Coral Reefs

The majority (approximately 70–90%) of the world’s tropical coral reefs (Figure 1) are projected to begin transitioning to degraded states when the global average air temperature threshold exceeds 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) average [43]. To put this into perspective, 2024 was the warmest year on record, when the global average air temperature was +1.60 °C above the pre-industrial average [44]. While the 2024 spike in global temperatures is considered temporary, it is now highly likely that 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial average will be permanently breached in the mid-2030s, possibly sooner [44]. Given that warm-water coral reefs are highly sensitive to even small changes in sea temperatures [11,12,13,14,15,16], reaching this global temperature threshold so soon is extremely concerning. Notably, the latest International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) World Heritage Outlook Report [45] for the state of the highly managed Great Barrier Reef is considered ‘critical’, with climate change considered the most significant threat to its Outstanding Universal Value, largely due to mass coral bleaching events associated with more frequent, intense, and widespread marine heatwaves [45].
The main climatic drivers that will interact with future HES events on coral reefs (Figure 2) include ocean acidification [11,14,15,16,43], ocean and atmospheric warming [10,11,12,13,15,16,43], and rising sea levels [16,19]. Ocean acidification is expected to affect the physiology and metabolism of marine organisms with carbonate body parts, such as hard corals and shellfish [14]. When TCs are accompanied with heavy rains and increased freshwater runoffs under conditions of global ocean acidification [14], this may lead to frequent periods with a significant local decrease in aragonite saturation (Ω) states with peak values less than 1 [46]. The expected increase in the strength, frequency, and rainfall of the most severe tropical cyclones with climate change (Table 1) in combination with ocean acidification will negatively impact the structural persistence of coral reefs beyond this century [46].
Compounding climate-driven changes in the distribution of habitat-forming coral reef species, invasive macroalgae are likely to exhibit higher growth under all higher oceanic CO2 and lower pH conditions [47]. Ocean warming will drive declines in coral reef structure and changes in the composition of reef communities in favour of taxa more resistant to warming and associated coral bleaching events [12,42,44]. Heavily bleached coral reefs will likely be more vulnerable to intense future HES events. Lastly, many coral reefs may be unable to grow fast enough to keep up with rising sea levels, leaving coastlines and low-lying islands exposed to increased erosion, flooding risk [48], and storm surge energy during TCs. However, other studies claim that coral reefs can adapt, as their upward growth rates will be able to keep pace with sea level rise [16].
All these climate threats will reduce the ecological resistance and resilience of coral reef ecosystems to cope with future HES events, notably increased wave and swell energy, higher storm surges, high-intensity rainfall, and river plume events associated with TCs. Moreover, future chronic and acute reef stressors may interact in complex ways and highly likely present an increasing risk for synergistic interactions that may give rise to cascading, compounding, and aggregate impacts on coral reef ecosystems (Figure 2). Many of these adverse impacts on highly stressed reefs may be irreversible [12,44,49]. The biggest concern is that the time between disturbance events has already shrunk and will shrink more, and when there is not enough time even for resilient reefs to recover, each disturbance will take coral cover lower in a ratchet-like one-way direction to coral reef destruction [50].
Interactions between future TCs and other acute and chronic coral reef stressors will likely vary across affected tropical ocean basins. In terms of highest exposure to future HES events, the north Atlantic and northeast Pacific are most likely to experience a greater proportion of severe category 4–5 storms if global mean temperatures exceed 2 °C above the 1986–2005 average. By comparison, the southeast Indian/southwest Pacific is most likely to witness a fall in category 4–5 storms and only a modest increase in overall TC intensity. This includes the iconic Great Barrier Reef off northeast Australia and Ningaloo Reef off northwest Australia.
All ocean basins will likely experience a fall in TC frequencies, but rates among basins may also vary. The southwest Indian and southeast Indian/southwest Pacific are projected to have the greatest decline in overall TC frequency, while the northeast Pacific and north Indian may expect only a small decline. Similarly, all tropical basins may expect large increases in rain rates associated with TCs, except for the southeast Indian/southwest Pacific where a more moderate increase may be expected.

3.3. Enhancing Coral Reef Resilience to Climate Change and Other Threats

The world’s shallow warm-water coral reefs (Figure 1) face an uncertain future, due to a potent combination of severe threats from climate change and other non-climatic anthropogenic threats (Figure 2). Some coral reef taxa may adapt to rapidly changing conditions, while others may experience decline and even risk extinction [12,14,15]. It will therefore be crucial to build reef resilience to future HES events, and other chronic and acute threats to coral reefs. The rapid reduction in carbon emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels is critical if coral reefs are to survive in their current form this century [43,49]. Given the high sensitivity of corals to even small changes in water temperature [12,13], ensuring the survival of the world’s shallow coral reefs will require sustained international cooperation and strict adherence to multi-lateral policy instruments, such as the Paris Agreement. If global average temperatures exceed 2 °C above the pre-industrial average, there is now very high confidence that most shallow warm-water reefs will transition to degraded states, largely due to ocean warming and associated increases in the frequency, intensity and duration of marine heatwaves [12,13,15,16]. For coral reefs, projected increases in TC intensity and rain rates bring an even greater threat to reefs already compromised by temperature-driven coral bleaching events, ocean acidification, land-based and marine pollutants, predator outbreaks, and overfishing.
In addition to the urgent need for rapid decarbonisation of the atmosphere to mitigate and ultimately reverse global warming, the survival of coral reefs amid the climate crisis will depend on a combination of passive and active management strategies. Among the most significant planned adaptation measures is the minimisation of chronic stressors on coral reefs, such as controlling outbreaks of Crown of Thorns Starfish [16,43,49], reducing nutrient, pesticide, and sediment runoff from adjacent catchments [16], and lowering levels of marine pollution. Overfishing on many coral reefs is rampant and must be addressed [51], especially for large fish species [52]. Efforts must also focus on identifying, conserving, and enhancing the functional connectivity of thermal refugia—areas such as outer reefs exposed to cooler, upwelling waters that are less affected by marine heatwaves [49,53].
To bolster coral resilience, it will be necessary to assist gene flow among coral populations located at the warmer edges of their current ranges and to trial the introduction of heat-resistant coral species, including the assisted translocation of thermally tolerant coral phenotypes to higher latitudes [49,53]. Additionally, conserving thermal refugia located beyond the current distribution of coral and other reef species will be critical [43,49]. Ex situ conservation approaches, such as coral banking and maintaining specimens in aquaria, can serve as a genetic reservoir for future restoration efforts [54].
Maintaining the functional connectivity of coral reef ecosystems will be essential, alongside reducing other stressors such as overfishing that further weaken reef communities [49,51,53]. Active restoration interventions—including rehabilitating degraded reef habitats and creating artificial habitats for displaced reef species—will also play a key role in supporting reef resilience and recovery in a rapidly changing climate [54,55]. However, coral restoration is not a panacea for safeguarding the survival of the world’s shallow warm-water coral reefs in the Anthropocene. Coral reef restoration efforts in the face of climate change must acknowledge the scale and severity of the environmental crisis, prioritise climate action and adopt a holistic approach that addresses both ecological and social factors to achieve meaningful restoration [56].
These ambitious planned adaptation strategies are not comprehensive, but they do provide a plausible range of options for application across many coral reef ecosystems around the world. Many are likely to be very costly and will rely on monetary and capacity-building support from highly developed countries. Ultimately, the future of the world’s shallow warm-water coral reefs is highly dependent on a rapid reduction in global carbon emissions and multi-lateral cooperation from high-carbon-emitting countries. This must include countries who have historically contributed most of the carbon emissions and emerging industrial countries who are now dominating total global emissions. Meanwhile, achieving the necessary global reduction in carbon emissions remains highly elusive to hundreds of millions of mainly poor people, who rely on the health and vitality of these remarkable marine ecosystems for their livelihoods, and together face an increasingly insecure future. As matters currently stand, carbon emissions reduction pledges from the high-emitting countries are woefully inadequate with little sign of that changing fundamentally.

4. Conclusions

Shallow warm-water coral reefs are at a critical crossroad. Once considered resilient ecosystems, their capacity to withstand and recover from natural high-energy storm events—primarily tropical cyclones—is now severely compromised due to the compounding effects of anthropogenic climate change. Projections of increased TC intensity, increased rainfall, and poleward shifts in storm tracks will intersect with rising sea temperatures, ocean acidification, and sea level rise, pushing coral reef systems toward tipping points. Already stressed by factors such as marine heatwaves, sediment runoff, and overfishing, coral reefs are likely to experience more frequent and severe ecological disruptions. The cumulative and synergistic nature of these stressors poses a grave risk not only to reef biodiversity but also to the human communities that depend on them for their livelihoods, coastal protection, cultural identity, and economic activity.
Securing the future of coral reef ecosystems will require urgent, coordinated global action. Rapid and deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are essential to mitigate the most severe climate impacts. Simultaneously, an integrated approach to reef conservation must be adopted, including reducing local stressors, protecting thermal refugia, and investing in innovative adaptation measures such as assisted gene flow and coral restoration. These efforts must be supported by sustained international cooperation, equitable financing mechanisms, and robust policy implementation, particularly in low-income countries most reliant on reef ecosystems. While some coral taxa may adapt to new environmental conditions, without decisive action, the ecological, economic, and cultural services provided by the world’s coral reefs could be irreversibly lost within decades or less.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Acknowledgments

The author would like to thank the special issue editors for the invitation to submit this opinion paper.

Conflicts of Interest

The author declares no conflict of interest.

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Figure 1. Global distribution of warm-water coral reefs and zones where tropical cyclones occur (coral reef distribution map courtesy of United Nations Environment Program, Creative Commons).
Figure 1. Global distribution of warm-water coral reefs and zones where tropical cyclones occur (coral reef distribution map courtesy of United Nations Environment Program, Creative Commons).
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Figure 2. Interactions and synergisms between anthropogenic climate change drivers, changing tropical cyclone characteristics, other chronic and acute coral reef stressors, and risks for cascading, compounding, and aggregate impacts on coral reefs.
Figure 2. Interactions and synergisms between anthropogenic climate change drivers, changing tropical cyclone characteristics, other chronic and acute coral reef stressors, and risks for cascading, compounding, and aggregate impacts on coral reefs.
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Table 1. Regions of the world (see Figure 1) containing coral reef ecosystems subject to ecological and physical disturbances from tropical cyclones (TCs) [19]. TC characteristics and their historical changes for world regions [19,22], and projected changes in TC characteristics for 2 °C of global warming, relative to 1986–2005 baseline conditions [23].
Table 1. Regions of the world (see Figure 1) containing coral reef ecosystems subject to ecological and physical disturbances from tropical cyclones (TCs) [19]. TC characteristics and their historical changes for world regions [19,22], and projected changes in TC characteristics for 2 °C of global warming, relative to 1986–2005 baseline conditions [23].
Ocean Basin and SeasonMean Annual Frequency (n)Countries/Regions Containing Coral ReefsTC Characteristics and Historical ChangesProjected Mean Changes in TCs for 2 °C of Global Warming, Relative to 1986–2005 Conditions (% Change)
Northwest Pacific
(all months)		~26Northern and central Philippines, Micronesia, southern China
(incl. Taiwan), southern Japan, Vietnam		Large size, medium–high frequency of intense storms.
Increases in intensity and poleward shift in the location of peak intensity,
uncertain changes in frequency.		TC frequency: −12%
Number category 4–5
TCs: −8%
Overall intensity: +6%
Rain rate: +17%
Northeast Pacific
(May–November)		~16Western Central America, Hawai’ian Islands (rarely)Moderate–large size, medium frequency of intense storms.
Increases in the intensity and rainfall rates, a higher frequency of rapid intensification events, possible decline in frequency.		TC frequency: −2%
Number category 4–5
TCs: +22%
Overall intensity: +5%
Rain rate: +20%
North Atlantic/Caribbean
(June–November)		~13Outer and Lesser Antilles, Cuba, Nicaragua, Honduras,
Belize, Guatemala, eastern and northern Mexico,
south and southeast United States		Moderate–large size, low–medium frequency of intense storms.
A potential increase in intensity and rainfall rates, a possible poleward shift in tracks.		TC frequency: −13%
Number category 4–5
TCs: +12%
Overall intensity: +3%
Rain rate: +16%
Southeast Indian/Southwest
Pacific
(November–April)		~13Northern Australia, southern Papua New Guinea,
Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, Samoa		Small–moderate size, low frequency of intense storms.
A decrease in frequency, but a trend towards higher intensity, poleward shift in peak intensity, slowing forward motion.		TC frequency: −18%
Number category 4–5
TCs: −17%
Overall intensity: +2%
Rain rate: +8%
Southwest Indian
(November–May)		~9Madagascar, Mozambique, southern
Tanzania, Mauritius, La Reunion		Small–moderate size, low frequency of intense storms.
Frequency may have decreased; increases in intensity.		TC frequency: −19%
Number category 4–5
TCs: +1%
Overall intensity: +6%
Rain rate: +18%
North Indian
(all months)		~5Western and eastern India, southeastern Arabian Peninsula, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri LankaSmall–moderate size, low frequency of intense storms.
An increase in the frequency and intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea, while the Bay of Bengal has seen a decrease in cyclone frequency.		TC frequency: −3%
Number category 4–5
TCs: +2%
Overall intensity: +6%
Rain rate: +19%
Southeast Pacific
(November–April)		<1Cook Islands and French Polynesia (rare)Small–moderate size, low frequency of intense storms.
Potential influence from increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs).		Not available
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Turton, S.M. Tropical Cyclones and Coral Reefs Under a Changing Climate: Prospects and Likely Synergies Between Future High-Energy Storms and Other Acute and Chronic Coral Reef Stressors. Sustainability 2025, 17, 7651. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177651

AMA Style

Turton SM. Tropical Cyclones and Coral Reefs Under a Changing Climate: Prospects and Likely Synergies Between Future High-Energy Storms and Other Acute and Chronic Coral Reef Stressors. Sustainability. 2025; 17(17):7651. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177651

Chicago/Turabian Style

Turton, Stephen M. 2025. "Tropical Cyclones and Coral Reefs Under a Changing Climate: Prospects and Likely Synergies Between Future High-Energy Storms and Other Acute and Chronic Coral Reef Stressors" Sustainability 17, no. 17: 7651. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177651

APA Style

Turton, S. M. (2025). Tropical Cyclones and Coral Reefs Under a Changing Climate: Prospects and Likely Synergies Between Future High-Energy Storms and Other Acute and Chronic Coral Reef Stressors. Sustainability, 17(17), 7651. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177651

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