Population Aging and the Potential for Developing a Silver Economy in the Polish National Cittaslow Network

Abstract

The objective of this study has been to diagnose the demographic situation of older people in municipalities that belong to the Polish National Cittaslow Network, and to assess their potential for developing a local silver economy. The study covered all 36 municipalities that compose the Polish National Cittaslow Network. The following research methods were employed: a critical review of the literature, analysis of secondary data, including strategic development planning documents, and quantitative methods, including a method of grouping objects on the basis of a synthetic variable. The study has demonstrated that nearly all Cittaslow municipalities experienced a decrease in population during the analyzed period, which coincided with a growing share of the non-working-age population. This attests to the ongoing process of population aging. A significant challenge that the analyzed municipalities faced was determined to be the growing demographic burden. Based on a synthetic indicator of the potential for silver economy development, the municipalities were divided into five classes: very high, high, medium, low, and very low potential. Interestingly, most of the municipalities are now distinguished as having medium, low, or very low potential for the development of the silver economy. The analysis presented in this article contributes to further research on factors and tools shaping a development policy that may influence the development of the silver economy in the Cittaslow municipalities of Poland and the world.

1. Introduction

Population aging, which has a dual nature, has been observed in Europe for years. It is manifested by a considerable growth in the number of people over 65 years of age and a high number of the eldest, who are persons of 80 years or more. There are estimates predicting that the share of these two groups in the age structure of populations in the European Union in 2050 will reach 28.5% and 11.1%, respectively, and will continue to rise [1]. The current situation and demographic prospects are the subject of debates and empirical research on the role of elderly people in society and the economy [2,3,4]. The population of the elderly and people approximating the upper working-age boundary is the group that is now assigned an increasingly important role, which means that their potential, both market-wise and as members of a society, is being acknowledged.

Some consequences of the population aging, also observed in Poland for many years now, include the need to keep elderly people active in the labor market and to ensure that this group of society has access to health care, education, and other broadly understood social services. On the other hand, in line with the principles of the silver economy, the aging of a society can also create an opportunity to improve the competitiveness of economies, in which companies offer goods and services addressed to the growing group of elderly people, who have specific needs. Thus, a challenge for both national and local governments is to shape the social and economic policy properly and to ensure that senior citizens enjoy an adequate quality of life [5,6,7]. Although the literature provides research evidence indicating a certain degree of resilience of small cities to the ongoing demographic changes [4], the implementation of an effective local policy in this scope remains a serious challenge.

Ensuring a good quality of life for residents (including senior citizens) is one of the major sustainable developmental goals set by local governments of municipalities that belong to the Polish National Cittaslow Network. It is therefore important and interesting to answer the following research question: Does the problem of population aging concern municipalities that belong to the Polish National Cittaslow Network, and what potential do these municipalities have for the development of the silver economy?

In light of the above considerations, the objective of this study has been to diagnose the demographic situation of older people in municipalities that belong to the Polish National Cittaslow Network, and to assess their potential for developing the local silver economy. The diagnosis of the demographic situation in the Polish National Cittaslow Network member municipalities covered the years 2015 and 2022. The evaluation of the municipalities’ potential to develop the local silver economy was conducted for the year 2022 only. The study employed the following research methods: critical analysis of the literature, analysis of secondary data (including strategic development planning documents at the local and supralocal levels), and quantitative methods (including a method of grouping research objects according to a synthetic variable). To determine the synthetic indicator of the potential of municipalities for the silver economy’s development, a non-model method was used, in which the arithmetic means served as an aggregating function. The selection of variables was supported by substantive, formal, and statistical criteria. On the basis of a synthetic indicator of the silver economy development potential, all Polish Cittaslow municipalities were classified as members of groups with a similar level of potential for the silver economy development. Statistical data used for building the synthetic indicator were acquired from the Local Data Bank of the Central Statistical Office of Poland.

2. Literature Review

“Twenty-first century demography demands a new outlook of aging populations as drivers of economic growth and innovation. One that sees their untapped potential to build and contribute to a flourishing silver economy—an environment in which the over-60 interacts and thrive in the workplace, engage in innovative enterprise, help drive the marketplace as consumers and lead healthy, active and productive lives”.

[8] (p. 5)

It should be noted that the concept of the silver economy has evolved considerably in the perspective of the European Union, from a narrow view of it as a single market segment to a cross-sectoral view, taking into account different sectors. The concept of the silver economy is based on the activity of various stakeholders (e.g., employers, companies, local governments, and NGOs) exploiting the potential of older people in the labor market and their social role [3]. In addition, it is emphasized that the aging of the population represents an opportunity for technological development due to the development of new products and services designed for older people [9].

In addition to the silver economy, the concepts that have influenced contemporary approaches to aging often include successful aging, healthy aging, active aging and friendly aging [9,10]. These have influenced EU, national, and local development policies, not only at the EU level but also in Poland [11,12,13].

It should be emphasized that the issue of societal aging is also important from the perspective of building sustainable development in these communities, not only from a broadly defined social perspective, but also from an economic perspective. The potential of the elderly in the economy can be viewed from the perspective of a consumer, employee, and whole market sector. Hence, important determinants of the development of the silver economy will be: changes in the market of goods and services that will take into account the needs and possibilities of an elder consumer, better exploitation of the professional potential of older employees, and public policy aimed at improving the accessibility and quality of products and services addressed to the elderly. In particular, it concerns the following areas of satisfying the needs of senior citizens [14,15]:

• medical and nursing care services, e-medicine,
• robotics, medical technologies in gerontology,
• adjustment of housing and public infrastructure to the needs of elderly people (e.g., transport infrastructure and services, smart home solutions for elder citizens),
• support of elderly people living independently, promotion of health prophylaxis,
• education (e.g., age-friendly university) and culture,
• sports and tourism (silver tourism),
• active life and social integration of senior citizens,
• electronic media and equipment for senior citizens,
• up-to-date technological solutions dedicated to senior citizens (gerontotechnologies),
• marketing addressed to senior citizens,
• financial services (financial advice, provision of loans, credit, savings, wealth management),
• occupational advice to senior citizens aiming to prolong their active participation in the labor market,
• promoting entrepreneurship among elderly persons.

These needs therefore concentrate on: ensuring that senior citizens remain professionally active, sustaining their independent life as long as possible, arranging free-time activities and integration of senior citizens, taking care of their health and well-being, and providing products, technological services, and financial services dedicated to the elderly (compare [16]). The type of and the way in which the elderly’s needs can be satisfied depend on their age (usually three groups are distinguished: young old, from 60 to 74 years of age, old, from 75 to 84 years, and the oldest old, 85 years of age and older), health, and the level of activity (the time period just prior to retirement, independent life as an old-age pensioner, the period of increasing dependence on others, and the period of life when an old-age pensioner needs the care of others). These distinguishing features are important for the shaping of the demand and supply structure in the silver economy (compare [17]).

It can be inferred that the contemporary socio-demographic changes, manifested as a growing share of elderly people and the increase and diversification of this social group’s needs, have rendered the active senior policy and orientation of development policy towards the silver economy necessary [12]. In this context, it is justified to talk about the silver economy as some sort of regional specialization in relation to the economy of the entire country [18,19,20], and to mention senior-friendly cities, age-friendly communities [13,21,22] or even silver cities [23] on a local level.

According to the concept of sustainable development, intergenerational balance is important in the social and economic aspects. Thanks to the activation and integration of representatives of different age groups, it is possible to improve the efficiency of the economy (including the creative economy) and improve the level of wealth and quality of life of society [24]. Becoming aware of the needs of elderly people and the challenges arising from attempts to satisfy these expectations can be a good starting point for re-defining previously adopted development goals of towns and municipalities whose vision of the growth stems from the sustainable development paradigm (in the social, economic, and environmental spheres) and the wish to improve the quality of life of their residents. An interesting example of such an approach is the International Cittaslow Network, which associates cities from different countries across the world [25,26,27]. The Cittaslow—the International Network of Cities Where Living is Good was founded in the Italian city of Orvieto in 1999. The term Cittaslow was coined from the Italian word città, a city, and the English word “slow”. A growing interest in the slow philosophy and in the slow city development model has been observed for several years in Poland (as well as in other countries), which is reflected in the dynamic growth of the Polish Cittaslow Network. The International Cittaslow Network nowadays (June 2023) associates 291 cities from 33 countries. There are already 20 national networks under its umbrella. Most member cities are situated in such countries as Italy (88), Poland (36), Germany (24) and Turkey (22) [28]. The Polish National Cittaslow Network was started in 2007. At present, the Polish National Cittaslow Network associates as many as 36 cities: 27 from the warmińsko-mazurskie province (Biskupiec, Bisztynek, Lidzbark Warmiński, Reszel, Barczewo, Bartoszyce, Braniewo, Dobre Miasto, Działdowo, Gołdap, Górowo Iławeckie, Jeziorany, Kisielice, Lidzbark, Lubawa, Morąg, Nidzica, Nowe Miasto Lubawskie, Olecko, Olsztynek, Orneta, Pasym, Ryn, Sępopol, Szczytno, Węgorzewo, Wydminy); two from the opolskie province (Głubczyce, Prudnik); one from each province of pomorskie (Nowy Dwór Gdański), lubelskie (Rejowiec Fabryczny), łódzkie (Rzgów), mazowieckie (Sierpc), śląskie (Kalety), wielkopolskie (Murowana Goślina) and zachodniopomorskie (Sianów) [28,29].

Although the objectives of the Cittaslow association are general in nature, most of them relate broadly to improving the quality of life of older residents. In Cittaslow member cities [30]:

• an environmental policy is implemented with an aim to maintain and develop the characteristics of the city’s area and its urban fabric, appreciating in the first place the techniques of recovery and recycling,
• an infrastructure policy is implemented related to the appreciation of the territory and not to its occupation,
• the use of technologies aimed at improving the quality of the environment and urban fabric is promoted,
• preference is given to the production and use of food products obtained through natural and eco-friendly techniques, excluding transgenic products, and whenever necessary, to the building of facilities for the safeguard and development of production typical of a given area,
• the autonomous production rooted in the culture and traditions is safeguarded, and its contribution to the standardization of the area, places, and methods of production, promoting events and spaces for the direct contact between consumers and manufacturers of quality products, is acknowledged,
• high quality of hospitality is promoted as a real moment of connection with the community and its features, removing physical and cultural obstacles that may prejudice against the complete and widespread use of city resources,
• the awareness of living in a slow city is promoted among the citizens.

The association can be joined by ordinary members (towns with a population of no more than 50,000). In order to become an ordinary member of the Cittaslow network, a town needs to pass through a certification procedure based on 74 criteria and fulfill at least 50% plus one of these criteria, divided into seven key areas: energy and environmental policy; infrastructure policies; quality of urban life policies; agricultural, touristic, and artisan policies; policies for hospitality, awareness, and training; social cohesion; and partnerships. Among the criteria assessed are many that directly relate to satisfying the needs of the elderly, on, for example, social activity and integration, health education, and the removal of architectural barriers [30]. Cittaslow towns are (and can be even more) friendly places for older people and for visitors, providing an opportunity to create local specialization (the local silver economy).

3. Research Methodology

Measuring the silver economy is an extremely difficult and multi-faceted process. It can be carried out both in the supply and in the demand dimensions. A study conducted in the supply dimension should focus on acquiring information on the national economy entities that offer goods and services for senior citizens, the type of goods and services delivered to this population, the revenues earned from operating in the market of goods and services for senior citizens, prospects of the development of this market, barriers to and factors favoring the development of this type of businesses or the number of working senior citizens, as well as the reasons for employing elderly people (more in [31,32]). A study in the demand dimension should focus on diagnosing the size of the demand declared by senior citizens, the extent to which these expectations are met, or the structure of their expenses. These studies should therefore concern the needs of elderly people in such areas as: health care, nursing care, free-time activities (sports, recreation, education, culture), housing, or adjustment of private and public space to the needs of senior citizens (more in [31,33]).

For example, for the analysis of aging processes at the national level, an Active Aging Index (AAI) is used. It is an index developed jointly by the United Nations and the European Commission to monitor active aging in the European Union countries. This tool aims to measure the active and healthy aging of older individuals in an aggregate way. The AAI captures the contributions of the elderly through activity, engagement, and independent living, which in turn can be considered prerequisites for well-being. One important goal of the AAI is comparing the quality of aging across countries and monitoring its evolution over time [34]. The AAI includes 22 indicators grouped into four areas: employment; participation in society; independent, healthy, and secure living; and capacity and an enabling environment for active aging, which were assigned specific weights [9]. At the national level, research is also carried out into the social activities or needs and consumer preferences of elderly people [35,36,37].

An adequate selection of a set of indicators that serves as a basis for designing a synthetic indicator is a prerequisite for describing a senior-oriented economy from both the supply and the demand side [21]. This selection should be made in compliance with the principles of accuracy, measurability, reliability, accessibility, and ease of interpretation of the selected measures [38,39]. An attempt to determine a set of indicators that can be used for a description of the silver economy in Poland has been made by Poland’s Central Statistical Office. Their report [31] presents the outcome of the work on the preparation of methodology for investigating the silver economy from the supply and demand perspective, and recommends the measures that could be used to describe the silver economy in Poland. Unfortunately, data for most of the proposed measures are published only on the national level or related to Polish provinces. As underlined by the authors of the report, municipalities in particular do not own enough data sets that could be applied to describe the silver economy. Numerous studies conducted on this matter, and not just in Poland, resort to surveys or interviews in order to obtain an adequately wide range of data [40].

Despite the limited accessibility of statistical data on the local level, this article reports our attempt at creating a synthetic measure of the potential of municipalities that belong to the Polish National Cittaslow Network to develop the silver economy. The selection of variables was made according to substantive, formal, and statistical criteria. At the stage of choosing substantive and formal criteria, an attempt was made to choose these criteria that were best at describing the potential of municipalities to develop the silver economy in the demand dimension, namely the variables describing the number of various businesses that are able to offer products and services dedicated to senior citizens, in addition to which the availability of various social services for post-working-age customers was taken into consideration. The Central Statistical Office of Poland recommendations concerning the type of indicators as well as the accessibility and completeness of data were taken into consideration. Twenty-four potential indicators were selected. At the state of statistical selection of variables, the variance of these indicators and the degree of correlation with the other variables were tested. The variables for which the variance coefficient reached values below the threshold set at 0.1 were discarded. Also, the variables for which the Pearson’s correlation coefficient was higher than the threshold of 0.75 were removed from the set. Consequently, 8 indicators were deleted from further analysis. The final set of variables that served to build the synthetic indicator of the municipalities’ potential for developing the silver economy consisted of 16 variables (both stimulants S and destimulants D). The nature of the variables was determined on the basis of substantive considerations. The verification of the assumed nature of the variables was performed ex-post by checking the correlation of each variable with the synthetic variable:

• X₁—municipality’s own income per 1 person of post-working-age—S,
• X₂—expenditure from the municipality’s budget per 1 person of post-working-age—S,
• X₃—number of persons of post-working-age per 1 outpatient clinic—D,
• X₄—number of persons of post-working-age per 1 pharmacy—D,
• X₅—number of persons of post-working-age per 1 library—D,
• X₆—number of persons of post-working-age per 1 institution such as a culture center civic center club, or common room—D,
• X₇—number of persons of post-working-age per 1 leisure activity and hobby club—D,
• X₈—senior citizen club/University of the Third Age (U3A) operating in the municipality—S,
• X₉—share of persons members of clubs, centers or sections for senior citizens or the University of the Third Age in the total population aged 60 years and older—S,
• X₁₀—a nursing home located in the municipality—S,
• X₁₁—a cinema and/or a museum located in the municipality—S,
• X₁₂—business environment institutions per 10,000 national economy entities—S,
• X₁₃—share of newly registered entities from the creative sector in the total number of newly registered business entities—S,
• X₁₄—share of foundations, associations, and social organizations in the total number of national economic entities—S,
• X₁₅—entities entered into the REGON registered per 1000 persons of post-working-age—S,
• X₁₆—number of persons of post-working-age per 100 persons in employment—D.

The procedure for the determination of the synthetic indicator of the potential of municipalities for the silver economy development was preceded by the process of stimulation and normalization of variables. The stimulation of variables proceeded according to the following formula [41]:

$${x_{ij}}^{\mathrm{S}}=\underset{i}{\max }\left\{{x_{ij}}^{\mathrm{D}}\right\}-{x_{ij}}^{\mathrm{D}}i=1,2,\dots ,n;j=1,2,\dots ,m$$

(1)

where:

• ${x_{ij}}^{\mathrm{S}}—$value of j-th variable in i-th object after stimulation,
• $\underset{i}{\max }\left\{{x_{ij}}^{\mathrm{D}}\right\}$—max value of j-th variable of a destimulant in the set of objects,
• ${x_{ij}}^{\mathrm{D}}$—value of j-th of variable of a destimulant in i-th object.

After stimulation, the variables were submitted to normalization using the zero unitarization method. The following formula was employed [41]:

$$z_{ij}={\displaystyle \frac{x_{ij}-\underset{i}{\min }\left\{x_{ij}\right\}}{\underset{i}{\max }\left\{x_{ij}\right\}-\underset{i}{\min }\left\{x_{ij}\right\}}}i=1,2,\dots ,n;j=1,2,\dots ,m$$

(2)

where:

• $z_{ij}$—normalized value of j-th variable in i-th object,
• $x_{ij}$—value of j-th variable in i-th object,
• $\underset{i}{\min }\left\{x_{\mathit{ij}}\right\},\underset{i}{\max }\left\{x_{ij}\right\}$—values of min and max of the j-th variable in the set of objects.

Normalized variables underwent the procedure of synthetization. The synthetic indicator of the potential of municipalities to develop the silver economy was determined using the non-model method according to the formula [41]:

$$s_i={\displaystyle \frac{1}{m}}\sum _{j=1}^m{z}_{ij}i=1,2,\dots ,n$$

(3)

where:

• $s_i$—value of the synthetic variable in i-th object,
• $z_{ij}$—normalized value of j-th variable in i-th object,
• $m$—number of variables.

The synthetic indicator of the municipalities’ potential to develop the silver economy assumed values from the range [0;1]. Based on the values of this indicator, the municipalities were grouped using the standard deviation method. Boundaries of the ranges were set according to the value of the arithmetic mean of the synthetic indicator for the total set of municipalities $\left(\overline{s}\right)$ and the level of standard deviation S(s) [41]. There was a division into 5 groups, and they were determined on the basis of the arithmetic mean value and 0.3 of the standard deviation value [42]. It is worth noting, however, that other divisions are also used in the literature, for example, into 3 groups using the arithmetic mean and 0.5 of the standard deviation value [43], into 4 groups using the arithmetic mean and the entire standard deviation [44], or into 5 groups using the arithmetic mean and 0.4 of the standard deviation value [45]. However, taking into account substantive considerations and the desire to distinguish groups of communes as similar as possible, the following five groups were divided into:

• With a very high level of potential for developing the silver economy—the synthetic indicator in the range $s_i$ ≥ $\overline{s}+S\left(s\right)$;
• With high potential—the synthetic indicator in the range $\overline{s}+S\left(s\right)$ > $s_i$ ≥ $\overline{s}+0.3S\left(s\right)$;
• With moderate potential—the synthetic indicator in the range $\overline{s}+0.3S\left(s\right)$ > $s_i$ ≥ $\overline{s}-0.3S\left(s\right)$;
• With a low level of potential—the synthetic indicator in the range $\overline{s}-0.3S\left(s\right)$ > $s_i$ ≥ $\overline{s}-S\left(s\right)$;
• With very low potential—the synthetic indicator in the range $s_i$ < $\overline{s}-S\left(s\right)$.

The evaluation of the potential of municipalities for the development of the silver economy was carried out on the basis of data from 2022. The assessment of the demographic situation of older people in the surveyed municipalities was carried out for the years 2015 and 2022. The dynamics of changes taking place in this area during the examined period were also analyzed. For this purpose, the dynamics index with a constant basis was used. The year 2015 was assumed as the base year, thus the dynamics of changes in 2022 compared to 2015 were calculated. On this basis, the demographic changes taking place in the surveyed municipalities were assessed.

4. Results

The demographic situation in the municipalities that belong to the Polish National Cittaslow Network changed significantly over the analyzed years. In nearly all the municipalities, the total population decreased while the share of post-working-age persons increased (

Table 1. Demographic situation in the Polish National Cittaslow Network in 2015.

Municipality	Type of Municipality *	Total Population (Persons)	Share of Post-Working-Age Population in Total Population (%)	Share of People Aged 70 Years and Over in Total Population (%)	Share of People Aged 85 Years and Over in Total Population (%)	Post-Working-Age Population per 100 Working-Age People (Persons)	Post-Working-Age Population per 100 Pre-Working-Age People (Persons)
Barczewo	r-u	17,550	15.5	7.2	1.3	24	81
Bartoszyce	u	24,196	20.2	9.9	1.7	32	119
Biskupiec	r-u	19,091	17.1	8.2	1.4	26	96
Bisztynek	r-u	6529	17.6	8.9	1.7	27	100
Braniewo	u	17,161	17.7	8.4	1.3	27	101
Dobre Miasto	r-u	16,124	18.1	9.2	1.9	29	98
Działdowo	u	21,402	17.9	7.6	1.3	28	100
Głubczyce	r-u	22,776	21.6	10.8	21	35	130
Gołdap	r-u	20,376	15.5	7.9	1.3	24	76
Górowo Iławeckie	u	4140	20.5	11.6	1.6	32	125
Jeziorany	r-u	7939	16.3	8.4	1.7	25	89
Kalety	u	8642	19.5	11.1	1.5	30	127
Kisielice	r-u	6055	15.3	7.4	1.2	24	74
Lidzbark	r-u	14,444	17.6	9.3	1.6	28	90
Lidzbark Warmiński	u	16,200	20.5	10.6	2.2	33	121
Lubawa	u	10,083	16.7	8.4	1.5	27	78
Morąg	r-u	24,768	17.6	8.4	1.4	28	92
Murowana Goślina	r-u	16,760	13.3	5.5	0.9	20	69
Nidzica	r-u	21,465	17.4	8.2	1.2	27	96
Nowe Miasto Lubawskie	u	11,101	19.0	9.4	1.9	31	101
Nowy Dwór Gdański	r-u	18,079	16.4	8.1	1.3	25	85
Olecko	r-u	22,078	18.0	8.9	1.7	29	91
Olsztynek	r-u	13,876	16.0	8.2	1.5	25	84
Orneta	r-u	12,326	18.9	10.1	2.0	30	106
Pasym	r-u	5392	15.1	7.4	1.3	23	76
Prudnik	r-u	27,645	21.8	11.4	2.1	35	134
Rejowiec Fabryczny	u	4445	16.8	9.4	1.9	25	102
Reszel	r-u	7702	21.2	11.3	2.1	34	137
Ryn	r-u	5846	17.0	9.6	1.4	26	96
Rzgów	r-u	10,028	18.3	8.9	1.4	29	95
Sępopol	r-u	6490	18.5	10.1	1.8	29	104
Sianów	r-u	13,757	15.1	6.9	1.4	23	82
Sierpc	u	18,317	20.4	9.4	1.8	33	119
Szczytno	u	23,992	20.9	10.4	1.8	33	129
Węgorzewo	r-u	17,149	20.0	10.4	2.1	32	120
Wydminy	r	6423	17.9	10.2	2.0	28	96

* rural-urban municipality (r-u), urban municipality (u), rural municipality (r). Source: Own study based on the [46].

and

Table 2. Demographic situation in the Polish National Cittaslow Network in 2022.

Municipality	Type of Municipality *	Total Population (Persons)	Share of Post-Working-Age Population in Total Population (%)	Share of People Aged 70 Years and Over in Total Population (%)	Share of People Aged 85 Years and Over in Total Population (%)	Post-Working-Age Population per 100 Working-Age People (Persons)	Post-Working-Age Population per 100 Pre-Working-Age People (Persons)
Barczewo	r-u	18,198	19.4	9.7	1.5	32	97
Bartoszyce	u	21,682	26.9	14.5	2.1	47	168
Biskupiec	r-u	17,858	22.8	11.4	1.7	38	127
Bisztynek	r-u	5709	23.2	11.7	2.0	39	137
Braniewo	u	16,223	23.0	12.2	1.7	39	127
Dobre Miasto	r-u	15,157	22.9	11.9	1.9	39	126
Działdowo	u	20,367	24.1	12.4	1.6	42	134
Głubczyce	r-u	21,013	26.3	14.9	2.3	46	159
Gołdap	r-u	19,244	20.2	10.5	1.8	34	99
Górowo Iławeckie	u	3663	27.2	14.8	2.8	48	171
Jeziorany	r-u	7070	21.9	10.8	1.8	36	126
Kalety	u	8209	23.4	12.8	2.2	39	139
Kisielice	r-u	5594	20.3	10.5	1.3	34	101
Lidzbark	r-u	13,301	22.3	11.7	1.7	38	117
Lidzbark Warmiński	u	14,614	26.1	14.3	2.3	46	158
Lubawa	u	10,619	18.8	10.0	1.5	32	85
Morąg	r-u	23,262	22.7	12.0	1.7	39	119
Murowana Goślina	r-u	16,988	19.6	8.8	1.1	33	97
Nidzica	r-u	19,830	22.9	12.0	1.5	38	130
Nowe Miasto Lubawskie	u	10,214	24.3	13.3	2.0	42	136
Nowy Dwór Gdański	r-u	16,968	21.5	10.8	1.5	36	115
Olecko	r-u	21,084	22.8	11.9	1.8	39	120
Olsztynek	r-u	13,197	22.3	11.2	2.1	38	120
Orneta	r-u	11,035	24.8	13.3	2.4	43	145
Pasym	r-u	5050	20.8	10.1	1.4	34	114
Prudnik	r-u	25,190	26.3	14.6	2.5	46	164
Rejowiec Fabryczny	u	4029	25.0	12.2	2.6	43	153
Reszel	r-u	6716	27.0	14.5	2.3	47	167
Ryn	r-u	5400	23.0	11.1	1.9	39	133
Rzgów	r-u	11,236	20.4	11.2	1.6	35	96
Sępopol	r-u	5750	23.5	12.2	2.5	40	133
Sianów	r-u	13,864	20.0	9.7	1.5	33	107
Sierpc	u	17,026	26.1	13.8	2.0	46	150
Szczytno	u	22,081	27.1	14.9	2.4	48	168
Węgorzewo	r-u	15,516	25.8	13.8	2.3	45	152
Wydminy	r	5873	21.9	11.5	1.8	37	121

* rural-urban municipality (r-u), urban municipality (u), rural municipality (r). Source: Own study based on the [46].

), which attests to the progressive aging of the society.

The highest decrease in the population took place in Reszel. The number of people living in that municipality decreased from 7702 in the year 2015 to 6716 in 2022, which meant a 12.8% decrease. A similar decrease, by 12.6%, was noted in the municipality of Bisztynek. The average number of residents in all analyzed municipalities fell from 14,454 people in 2015 to 13,578 people in 2022; that is, it declined by 6.3%. Significantly, the share of post-working-age persons in the total population increased in all municipalities included in the study. The average percentage of this age group in all municipalities was 18% in the year 2015 and rose to as much as 23.3% in 2022, which meant an increase of 5.3 percentage points. The highest percentage of post-working-age people was in the following municipalities: Górowo Iławeckie (27.2%), Szczytno (27.1%), Reszel (27%), and Bartoszyce (26.9%). The smallest share of senior citizens, below 20%, was noted in the following municipalities: Lubawa (18.8%), Barczewo (19.4%), and Murowana Goślina (19.6%).

A rise in the share of persons aged 70 years and over in the total population was also observed in all the municipalities. The average percentage of this age group in all the municipalities in total increased from 9.1% to 12.1%, that is by three percentage points. The highest increase was noted in Działdowo (by 4.7 p.p.), Bartoszyce (by 4.6 p.p.), and Szczytno (by 4.6 p.p.), which are three large urban municipalities, each with a population of over 20 thousand. Due to the ongoing changes in the population structure, the highest share of inhabitants aged 70 years and over in 2022 was found in the municipalities: Głubczyce (14.9%), Szczytno (14.9%), Górowo Iławeckie (14.8%), and Prudnik (14.6%). Noteworthy is the fact that the share of the oldest population, aged over 85 years, increased in 35 out of 36 analyzed municipalities. The average share of this age group decreased only in the municipality Wydminy (from 2% to 1.8%), which is the only rural municipality in the Polish Cittaslow Network. On average, the oldest senior citizens made up 8.3% of the post-working-age population in 2022. The highest percentage of persons aged 85 years and over in the post-working-age population was determined in the municipalities Sępopol (10.5%) and Rejowiec Fabryczny (10.4%). The smallest share of this age group of senior citizens was in the municipality of Murowana Goślina (5.9%).

The growing demographic burden is a significant social and economic problem. In all analyzed municipalities, there was an increase in the number of post-working-age persons per 100 working age persons (on average, it rose from 28 in 2015 to 40 in 2022) and in the number of post-working-age persons per 100 pre-working-age persons (on average, it increased from 101 in 2015 to 131 in 2022). The latter ratio is seen as an indicator of the aging of a society because it reflects the number of grandparents to the number of grandchildren, which the above statistics prove to have increased.

In order to more precisely characterize the demographic changes occurring in each of the municipalities within the Polish National Cittaslow Network and the problem of population aging, two indicators were analyzed: the dynamics of changes in the total population number and an increase in the share of the post-working-age population in the total population in 2022 compared to 2015 (Figure 1).

The matrix presenting the situation in the surveyed municipalities was divided into four quarters. The first quarter included municipalities in which the dynamics of changes in the total population number in 2022 compared to 2015 were greater than 100, and at the same time the increase in the share of the post-working-age population in the total population in the period 2015–2022 was higher than the average for all municipalities, which amounted to 5.3 p.p. Such a situation was recorded only in the municipality of Murowana Goślina. The population in this municipality increased by 1.4% in the period under review, and at the same time the share of the post-working-age population in the total population increased from 13.3% to 19.6% (Table 1 and Table 2), i.e., by 6.3 p.p.

The second quarter of the matrix included municipalities in which the dynamics of changes in the total population number in 2022 compared to 2015 was also greater than 100, but the increase in the share of post-working-age population in the total population in the period 2015–2022 was lower than the average for all municipalities. Such a situation was recorded in four municipalities: Barczewo, Lubawa, Rzgów, and Sianów. The highest rise was noted in the municipality of Rzgów (by 12%), which results from its specific location in the Łódź agglomeration and migration of people from the nearby city of Łódź. This also occurred in the municipality of Lubawa (by 5.3%), probably owing to the high level of entrepreneurship in both the municipality and the town of Lubawa [47], and the migration of people in search of employment. At the same time, both municipalities had the smallest increase in the share of post-working-age population in the total population, which indicates a relatively good demographic situation in these municipalities.

In the other 31 municipalities, the total population was observed to have decreased while the share of post-working-age populations increased. Interestingly, the increase in the share of that age category in 14 municipalities was lower than the mean calculated for all the analyzed municipalities (third quarter of the matrix), while in the other 17 municipalities an increase in the share of the post-working-age population was higher than the mean (fourth quarter of the matrix), which points to some undesirable demographic changes occurring in these municipalities. They are undergoing depopulation, while the share of older people is growing rapidly. The largest increase in the share of post-working-age population within the total population was recorded in the Rejowiec Fabryczny municipality. This share increased from 16.8% to 25% (Table 1 and Table 2), i.e., by 8.2 p.p.

Our analysis of the demographic burden in the analyzed municipalities in 2022 led to some interesting findings (Figure 2). The best situation in this regard was noted in five municipalities (Barczewo, Gołdap, Lubawa, Murowana Goślina, Rzgów)—third quarter of the matrix. They are the municipalities that in 2022 were characterized as having a lower number of post-working-age people per 100 working-age people than the average for all municipalities (which was 40 people), as well as a better situation with respect to the population aging indicator. This indicator in these five municipalities was lower than 100, which means that there were fewer than 100 grandparents per 100 grandchildren. The least beneficial situation was observed in the municipalities located in the first quarter of the matrix. In these 13 municipalities, the number of post-working-age people per 100 working-age persons was higher than the average calculated for all the municipalities studied, which was 10 persons; moreover, the generation of grandfathers and grandmothers in these municipalities was more numerous than the generation of grandchildren. The population aging indicator in these municipalities exceeded the value of 100. The worst situation was noted in the municipalities Górowo Iławeckie, Bartoszyce, Reszel, and Szczytno, where there were as many as 167–171 grandparents per 100 grandchildren, and 47–48 senior citizens per 100 working-age residents.

In the remaining 18 communes (the second quarter of the matrix), the population aging indicator was above 100. However, the number of people of post-working-age per 100 people of working-age was lower than the average for all communes, which was 40 people. This indicates a relatively better situation for these communes than for units located in the first quarter of the matrix. Interestingly, no commune belonging to the Polish Cittaslow Network was in the fourth quarter of the matrix.

As shown above, the demographic situation in the municipalities that belong to the Polish Cittaslow Network varies. What all these municipalities have in common, however, is the growing share of post-working-age population in total population. Are the municipalities prepared adequately to face this challenge? Do they have proper potential to develop the silver economy?

Table 3. Grouping of municipalities according to their own potential for developing the silver economy.

Group of Municipalities	Municipalities Assigned to the Group	Arithmetic Mean and Standard Deviation for Given Group
Very high potential $s_i$ ≥ 0.592	Braniewo, Górowo Iławeckie, Lubawa, Olsztynek	$\overline{s}$ = 0.671 $S\left(s\right)$ = 0.0643
High potential 0.592 > $s_i$ ≥ 0.531	Jeziorany, Lidzbark Warmiński, Nowe Miasto Lubawskie, Olecko, Pasym, Rzgów	$\overline{s}$ = 0.577 $S\left(s\right)$ = 0.0122
Average potential 0.531 > $s_i$ ≥ 0.479	Barczewo, Dobre Miasto, Głubczyce, Lidzbark, Morąg, Murowana Goślina, Nidzica, Nowy Dwór Gdański, Prudnik, Sierpc, Węgorzewo, Wydminy	$\overline{s}$ = 0.509 $S\left(s\right)$ = 0.0160
Low potential 0.479 > $s_i$ ≥ 0.418	Biskupiec, Bisztynek, Działdowo, Gołdap, Orneta, Reszel, Ryn, Sianów, Szczytno	$\overline{s}$ = 0.443 $S\left(s\right)$ = 0.0202
Very low potential $s_i$ < 0.418	Bartoszyce, Kisielice, Kalety, Rejowiec Fabryczny, Sępopol	$\overline{s}$ = 0.385 $S\left(s\right)$ = 0.0331

s_i—value of the synthetic indicator of the municipalities’ potential to develop the silver economy; $\overline{s}$ and $S\left(s\right)$—arithmetic mean and standard deviation calculated for a given group of municipalities separated using the standard deviation method. Source: Own study based on the [46].

shows the results of the grouping of municipalities according to the potential they possess for developing the silver economy.

The group with very high potential for developing the silver economy comprises Braniewo, Górowo Iławeckie, Lubawę, and Olsztynek, that is, the municipalities for which the synthetic indicator was calculated to be above 0.592. Interestingly, this group proved to be highly diverse internally; in fact, it was the most diverse among all the distinguished groups, which is confirmed by the high value of the standard deviation. The municipality of Lubawa proved to be the leader. The advantages it possesses are: the highest ratio among all municipalities relative to all newly registered businesses of newly registered creative sector entities to all newly registered businesses (13.8% compared to the average 4.6%), and the lowest number of post-working-age people per 100 working-age persons (38 persons compared to the average of 151 persons). Lubawa is also distinguished by the relatively high accessibility of broadly understood social services to the elderly, e.g., pharmacies, health care facilities, social care institutions, clubs for senior citizens, etc. There is also the University of the Third Age (U3A) seated in Lubawa, and the share of people who are members of clubs for senior citizens or the U3A students in the total population aged 60 years and over in Lubawa municipality is 5.3, compared to the average of 1.3%.

The group with high potential for developing the silver economy consists of six municipalities: Jeziorany, Lidzbark Warmiński, Nowe Miasto Lubawskie, Olecko, Pasym, and Rzgów. The value of the synthetic indicator in these municipalities ranges from 0.531 to 0.592, although this is the most homogenous group, with the smallest value of standard deviation. The municipality of Rzgów, which achieved the highest position in this group, is characterized as having the highest number of businesses included in the REGON register per 1000 post-working people among all analyzed municipalities (934 relative to the average of 452), the highest own income of the municipality per post-working age person (23.8 thousand PLN/person compared to the average of 11.7 thousand PLN/person; where PLN means currency in Poland—Polish zloty), and a low number of post-working-age people per 100 working-age persons (56 persons compared to the average of 151 persons). In the other municipalities that fell into this group, the situation in terms of their potential to develop the silver economy was not as good as in Rzgów, although their advantage is the relatively good access of senior citizens to social services, e.g., many types of hobby clubs, health care facilities, and pharmacies. The municipality of Pasym, for instance, stands out as having the greatest potential availability of various hobby clubs for post-working-age residents (there are 81 senior citizens per club, in comparison to the average for all municipalities, which is 719 persons). The municipality of Lidzbark Warmiński has a relatively high share of persons who attend hobby clubs for senior citizens and the U3A in the general population aged 60 years and over (5.6% in comparison to the average equal 1.3%).

The group with a moderate potential to develop the silver economy is the most numerous one. It contains as many as 12 municipalities for which the synthetic indicator of the silver economy’s development potential was within 0.479 to 0.531. This group was varied in terms of both the type of municipality and the internal structure of variables describing the said potential. Some municipalities, e.g., Dobre Miasto, Lidzbark, Morąg, Murowana Goślina, and Węgorzewo, are characterized as having a good situation regarding the accessibility of senior citizens to hobby clubs; the municipality of Prudnik has very good accessibility of senior citizens to such institutions and culture centers civic clubs, or common rooms; while Lidzbark, Nidzica, and Sierpc offer good accessibility to pharmacies and health care facilities. Dobre Miasto, Węgorzewo, and Wydminy are distinguished by a high share of foundations, associations, and social organizations in the total number of the national economic entities. However, in other analyzed areas, most of the municipalities gathered in this group achieved only moderate scores.

The group with low potential for developing the silver economy consists of nine municipalities: Biskupiec, Bisztynek, Działdowo, Gołdap, Orneta, Reszel, Ryn, Sianów, and Szczytno. These are the ones for which the synthetic indicator of the silver economy development potential was within 0.418–0.479. This group contains the municipalities, which in most of the analyzed areas are characterized as having a lower than average or low level of potential for developing the silver economy. They have a relatively small number of businesses that could offer goods and services dedicated to senior citizens, and a relatively low accessibility to various social services addressed to post-working-age people.

The group with very low potential for the development of the silver economy comprises five municipalities: Bartoszyce, Kisielice, Kalety, Rejowiec Fabryczny, and Sępopol. The value of the synthetic indicator of this potential in the above municipalities was below 0.418. The weakness of these municipalities lies in very low economic potential and a rather poor accessibility of senior citizens to broadly understood social services. The municipalities Sępopol and Rejowiec Fabryczny are characterized by the lowest number of businesses in the REGON register per 1000 post-working-age inhabitants among all analyzed municipalities (276 and 322, respectively, in comparison to the average number of 452). Kisielice and Kalety have a very low number of business environment institutions per 10,000 national economy entities (367 and 677, respectively, in comparison to the average of 1230). In addition, Kalety has a very low share of foundations, social associations, and organizations in the total number of national economy entities (2% versus the average of 4.3%). The municipality of Bartoszyce, besides having a low economic potential, is unfortunately characterized by very low accessibility for post-working-age persons to such institutions as culture centers, clubs, or civic centers. Statistically, there are 5937 senior citizens per such institution, compared to the average of 2995 persons. The availability of hobby clubs is also low—there are 2919 senior citizens per hobby club, in contrast to the average of 719 persons. This difficult situation is due to the fact that the municipality of Bartoszyce has one of the highest shares of post-working-age population in the total population and a very unfavorable position with respect to demographic burden, including the population aging indicator. Under these circumstances, it is absolutely necessary to take into consideration the demographic challenges in the local development policy. A decrease in the population and population aging give rise to such a complex set of interactions that an innovative approach to creating a development policy is needed, including the formation of an environment that will favor the development of the silver economy.

5. Discussion

Although population aging is often a countrywide or global issue, it also manifests itself in local territorial units. The analysis of the literature suggests that the local scale (unlike the national or global ones) is demonstrably less often used for diagnosing and evaluating the course of population aging or the specific consequences of this process [48,49,50,51,52,53]. The process of population aging can therefore be seen as a strategic challenge for local territorial units [54,55,56,57]. The literature also points to the possibility of achieving positive economic effects of this process, more broadly meaning the building and developing of a local silver economy [11,58]. However, to achieve these positive effects, local territorial units must have appropriate potential. Unfortunately, there is a lack of research in the literature that analyzes a municipality’s potential for developing the silver economy using a synthetic indicator. Most often, analyses are based on various types of single indicators regarding demography, infrastructure, or the senior economy [14,18,31]. Therefore, the results presented in this paper fill a gap in the diagnosis of the potential for the development of the silver economy at the local level.

The conducted research shows that in the municipalities belonging to the Polish Cittaslow Network, the demographic situation is deteriorating, and the problem of population aging is deepening. The consequence of this is, among others: the need to activate older people in the labor market and to ensure seniors have an appropriate quality of life. In practice, this means the need for local (but also regional) authorities to use appropriate tools to achieve positive effects in terms of the broadly understood activation and improvement of the quality of life of older people [9,59]. For example, the municipalities that belong to the Polish National Cittaslow Network take advantage of supralocal development programs, that have acknowledged the need to cater to the demands of the dynamically growing group of elderly citizens, planning a variety of activities that fit into this development perspective. Among the activities that can significantly improve the quality of life and activate senior citizens, the following can be mentioned [60]:

• initiating and promoting activities for social inclusion, supporting grassroots social initiatives,
• supporting NGOs’ activities, including the development of support networks of NGOs within the Cittaslow movement,
• creating an information system on cultural and sports events, using the Cittaslow website,
• creating the conditions conducive to the activation and integration of the elderly,
• implementing innovative methods for the activation of excluded persons,
• creating local centers of social activity,
• programs dedicated to the support of 50+ persons in the labor market,
• cooperating in the creation of shared tourist products (e.g., trips for senior citizens around the Cittaslow member cities),
• creating a Cittaslow network tourist card (a system of discounts for visitors),
• development of public transport in Cittaslow member cities, using low-emission means of transport,
• building an urban bicycle network, including the signposting consistent in all Cittaslow member cities,
• creating new spaces for active free time activities (also by senior citizens and people with disabilities),
• implementing urban surveillance systems (to take care of the safety of senior citizens),
• implementing up-to-date solutions in environmental protection (e.g., smart waste disposal facilities, drones monitoring the air conditioning, smart urban lighting),
• building a system of incentives for residents implementing eco-friendly solutions, e.g., subsidies for residents to replace old heating stoves, or to get connected to a collective heating system.

The implementation of such types of measures can contribute to the improved quality of life of the eldest residents of Cittaslow member municipalities, social integration, and activation of the capital of senior citizens in the local labor market. The inclusion of the potential of senior citizens in the policy of local development and a possible specialization in the local silver economy or silver slow city is a significant step towards building specific resilience of small towns and municipalities (community resilience, urban resilience) to unfavorable demographic trends and socio-economic crises. This perspective also seems consistent with the long-term Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda, especially Goal No. 11 called Sustainable Cities and Communities [61]. Some authors point out that the underlying mechanisms are highly variable depending on the sustainable development goals and geographical contexts, and that it is therefore necessary to combine context-specific policies and practices in order to both exploit opportunities and reduce challenges arising from an aging and shrinking population for sustainable development [62].

6. Conclusions

In connection with the research question posed by the authors: Does the problem of population aging concern municipalities that belong to the Polish National Cittaslow Network, and what potential do these municipalities have for the development of the silver economy?—the purpose of this study has been to diagnose the demographic situation of older people in municipalities that belong to the Polish National Cittaslow Network, and to assess their potential for developing the local silver economy.

Based on the results of this study, it emerges that the municipalities included in the Polish Cittaslow Network present diverse demographics. What they all have in common is the growing share of the post-working-age population within the total population. Over the analyzed time period, nearly all Cittaslow municipalities experienced a decrease in total population with a simultaneous increase in the percentage of post-working-age population, which attests to the progressive population aging in these local communities. It is worth noting that the eldest senior citizens, aged 85 years and over, represented as many as 8% of the post-working-age population in all Cittaslow member municipalities in 2020. For the Polish Cittaslow municipalities, the growing demographic burden is a significant social and economic problem. In all the analyzed municipalities, a rise in the number of post-working-age people per 100 working-age people was observed, in addition to an increase in the number of post-working-age people per 100 pre-working-age people.

Within the Polish National Cittaslow Network, there is some diversity in the broadly understood socio-economic potential, which is confirmed by studies carried out to date by many authors [63,64,65]. This could be resulting from specific characteristics of endogenic resources, existing functional connections and the structure of functions performed, or differences in the levels of territorial capital and competitiveness [4]. In this context, do the Polish Cittaslow municipalities have sufficient potential to develop the silver economy? This research suggests that the municipalities in the Polish Cittaslow Network can be divided into five groups in terms of their potential for developing the silver economy. Four of the 36 municipalities incorporated into the Polish Cittaslow Network were classified to the first group, with a very high potential for developing the silver economy. Another 6 municipalities were classified as having high potential, 12 had moderate potential, 9 had low potential, and 5 had very low potential for the development of the silver economy. These data suggest that most of the analyzed municipalities (26 out of 36) currently possess a moderate, low, or very low potential for the development of the local silver economy, which means, for example, that they have a small or very small number of different businesses that offer goods and services dedicated to senior citizens. The accessibility of all types of social services to post-working-age residents in these municipalities is also inadequate. The research results therefore confirm internal diversity of the Polish National Cittaslow Network in this aspect, which is a starting point for further pursuit of the raised research problem, for example by conducting qualitative studies.

The attainment of the research aim has contributed to the broadening of knowledge in the urban economy, particularly pertaining to the current demographic and socio-economic changes occurring on a local level, such as the deterioration of the demographic structure due to population aging and resulting changes in the local community’s needs as well as changes in the demand and supply in the local labor market. The outcome of our study can stimulate further investigations, which may concern, for example, the factors that shape the opportunities and capabilities of building the silver economy in the Polish Cittaslow municipalities, the needs and preferences of senior citizens as regards goods and services offered in the local or regional market, occupational activation of senior citizens, stimulation of entrepreneurship in the silver tourism sphere, as well as prospects and possible pathways for specialization of slow cities towards the silver economy. Considering the fact that population aging affects local territorial units to a large extent, both in Poland and elsewhere in Europe, it appears that the key conditions for the development of the local silver economy are the proper direction of a development policy in each municipality and its coordination in this scope with strategies of the EU member states as well as strategies adopted in the country on the regional level. Another significant prerequisite is the cooperation among local players (authorities, entrepreneurs, and the local community) undertaken to achieve the set development goals and directions. The research approach adopted by the authors in this study can be employed in analyses of the potential for the development of the silver economy possessed by more numerous groups of local government units, for example ones that belong to other networks than the Polish Cittaslow Network. The conclusions from the conducted research can be used in the practice of municipal management. They may be useful for municipal authorities to determine the directions and tools of development policy and for other local entities (entrepreneurs, associations, etc.) who provide services to seniors and contribute to the development of the local silver economy.

The authors are aware that the proposed synthetic indicator of the municipalities’ potential to develop the silver economy is based on a relatively small number of variables. This was due to the limited nature of public statistics in Poland, in which some data are available only for counties or voivodeships and not for such small units as a municipality. It would be worth carrying out research in the future that would expand the scope of quantitative data that can be used in the synthetic indicator. A valuable extension of the research methodology would certainly be an in-depth analysis of the demand side, so important in the perspective of the development of the local silver economy specialization. Extending the research perspective to include a qualitative approach (e.g., conducting representative surveys among seniors living in Cittaslow cities) would be an important added value of the supply-side research carried out [66].