Economic and Spatial Restructuring in the Aras Economic Zone: The Impact of Cross-Border Cooperation

Cross-border cooperation is critical for regional development capabilities. China and Iran are increasingly strengthening their partnership with the Belt and Road Initiative. This study constructs a regional socio-spatial development index system from the perspective of locals and establishes a DPSIR model with five layers: drivers, pressures, states, impacts, and responses. Bottom-up regional analyses (economic, social, and spatial) were performed to explore local perspectives on cross-border cooperation and assess the possible value system of development in a specific region. Based on 41 quantitative indicators and a genetic algorithm, causal links between economic changes and spatial restructuring were determined and verified. The findings show that cross-border cooperative growth is possible in the research region. Due to regional heterogeneity, excessive pressure on states, and evolving imbalances, we found imbalanced development inside and between sections. Additionally, foreign direct investment enhances cross-border cooperation, which can preserve and develop local economies. Additionally, this study provides suggestions and references for cross-border cooperation opportunities, challenges, and decision-making.