Decoupling Regional Economic Growth from Industrial CO₂ Emissions: Empirical Evidence from the 13 Prefecture-Level Cities in Jiangsu Province

Amid global climate warming, it is necessary to explore the decoupling relationship between economic growth (EG) and industrial CO₂ emissions (ICEs). This paper uses the Tapio decoupling model and the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model synthetically to analyze the decoupling relationship between EG and ICEs and reveal the driving force of growth of CO₂ emissions (CEs) based on ICE panel data from 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu province from 2011 to 2015. From the research results, it can be seen that the decoupling status in southern Jiangsu, middle Jiangsu and northern Jiangsu presented weak decoupling (WD), weak negative decoupling (WND) and WD, respectively. In 2011–2013, seven prefecture-level cities exhibited states of WD, and strong decoupling (SD) occurred only in Zhenjiang, with a decoupling index value of −0.3359. In 2013–2015, five prefecture-level cities exhibited states of WD. The energy intensity and carbon emission intensity had negative inhibitory effects on ICEs, and economic development and the energy structure had positive promotion effects on ICEs. The research results have important theoretical and practical significance for future energy savings, carbon emissions reductions and the realization of a low-carbon economy in the economic development of Jiangsu.