Seasonal and Spatial Variability of Atmospheric Emissions from Shipping along the Northern Sea Route

Large seasonal and spatial variabilities in Arctic shipping and its associated emissions are expected in the future, due to continuous sea ice decline. This study collected ship traffic data and the associated emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), particulate matter (PM), and black carbon (BC) along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2013. The aim is to analyze the seasonal and spatial variations in ship traffic and the associated emissions along the NSR. The potential factors for these variations are discussed. The results showed strong seasonal and spatial variations in ship traffic and the associated emissions. In winter and spring, the number of ships and the associated emissions were low and limited to the Barents Sea. In summer, they almost doubled and showed a clear eastward and northward expansion, covering most of the study area and forming trans-Arctic shipping lanes, which remained throughout the autumn. The spatial distribution of emissions was similar to that for ship traffic, showing a decreasing trend from west to east. SO₂ and PM peaked one month prior to the others and exhibited relatively high emissions, especially along shipping lanes, which may be linked to the changes in ship and fuel types.