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Article

Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece

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Institute of Laser and Optoelectronic Intelligent Manufacturing, College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, China
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Faculty of Information Technologies and Economics, Department of Computer Systems and Technologies, Bukovinian University, 2A Darwin St., 58000 Chernivtsi, Ukraine
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Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić” SASA, 9 Djure Jakšića St., 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
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Institute of Sports, Tourism and Service, South Ural State University, 76 Lenin Ave., 454080 Chelyabinsk, Russia
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ACIMSI—Center for Meteorology and Environmental Modelling, University of Novi Sad, 7 Trg Dositeja Obradovića, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia
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Faculty of Geography, National Research Ogarev Mordovia State University, 68 Bolshevistskaya St., 430005 Saransk, Russia
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Eighth Belgrade Grammar School, 71 Grčića Milenka St., 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
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Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, 3/III Studentski trg, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2020, 12(24), 10261; https://doi.org/10.3390/su122410261
Received: 19 October 2020 / Revised: 24 November 2020 / Accepted: 30 November 2020 / Published: 9 December 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural Disasters and Extreme Solar Energy)
The impact of solar activity on environmental processes is difficult to understand and complex for empirical modeling. This study aimed to establish forecast models of the meteorological conditions in the forest fire areas based on the solar activity parameters applying the neural networks approach. During July and August 2018, severe forest fires simultaneously occurred in the State of California (USA), Portugal, and Greece. Air temperature and humidity data together with solar parameters (integral flux of solar protons, differential electron flux and proton flux, solar wind plasma parameters, and solar radio flux at 10.7 cm data) were used in long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network ensembles. It is found that solar activity mostly affects the humidity for two stations in California and Portugal (an increase in the integral flux of solar protons of > 30 MeV by 10% increases the humidity by 3.25%, 1.65%, and 1.57%, respectively). Furthermore, an increase in air temperature of 10% increases the humidity by 2.55%, 2.01%, and 0.26%, respectively. It is shown that temperature is less sensitive to changes in solar parameters but depends on previous conditions (previous increase of 10% increases the current temperature by 0.75%, 0.34%, and 0.33%, respectively). Humidity in Greece is mostly impacted by solar flux F10.7 cm and previous values of humidity. An increase in these factors by 10% will lead to a decrease in the humidity of 3.89% or an increase of 1.31%, while air temperature mostly depends on ion temperature. If this factor increases by 10%, it will lead to air temperature rising by 0.42%. View Full-Text
Keywords: solar activity; forest fires; recurrent neural networks; LSTM ensemble solar activity; forest fires; recurrent neural networks; LSTM ensemble
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MDPI and ACS Style

Vyklyuk, Y.; Radovanović, M.M.; Stanojević, G.; Petrović, M.D.; Ćurčić, N.B.; Milenković, M.; Malinović Milićević, S.; Milovanović, B.; Yamashkin, A.A.; Milanović Pešić, A.; Lukić, D.; Gajić, M. Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece. Sustainability 2020, 12, 10261. https://doi.org/10.3390/su122410261

AMA Style

Vyklyuk Y, Radovanović MM, Stanojević G, Petrović MD, Ćurčić NB, Milenković M, Malinović Milićević S, Milovanović B, Yamashkin AA, Milanović Pešić A, Lukić D, Gajić M. Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece. Sustainability. 2020; 12(24):10261. https://doi.org/10.3390/su122410261

Chicago/Turabian Style

Vyklyuk, Yaroslav, Milan M. Radovanović, Gorica Stanojević, Marko D. Petrović, Nina B. Ćurčić, Milan Milenković, Slavica Malinović Milićević, Boško Milovanović, Anatoliy A. Yamashkin, Ana Milanović Pešić, Dobrila Lukić, and Mirjana Gajić. 2020. "Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece" Sustainability 12, no. 24: 10261. https://doi.org/10.3390/su122410261

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