Divergent Leading Factors in Energy-Related CO₂ Emissions Change among Subregions of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Area from 2006 to 2016: An Extended LMDI Analysis

In recent decades, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region has experienced rapid economic growth accompanied by increasing energy demands and CO₂ emissions. Understanding the driving forces of CO₂ emissions is necessary to develop effective policies for low-carbon economic development. However, because of differences in the socioeconomic systems within the BTH region, it is important to investigate the differences in the driving factors of CO₂ emissions between Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei. In this paper, we calculated the energy-related industrial CO₂ emissions (EICE) in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei from 2006 to 2016. We then applied an extended LMDI (logarithmic mean Divisia index) method to determine the driving forces of EICE during different time periods and in different subregions within the BTH region. The results show that EICE increased and then decreased from 2006 to 2016 in the BTH region. In all subregions, energy intensity, industrial structure, and research and development (R&D) efficiency effect negatively affected EICE, whereas gross domestic product per capita effect and population had positive effects on EICE. However, R&D intensity and investment intensity had opposite effects in some parts of the BTH region; the effect of R&D intensity on EICE was positive in Beijing and Tianjin but negative in Hebei, while the effect of investment intensity was negative in Beijing but positive in Tianjin and Hebei. The findings of this study can contribute to the development of policies to reduce EICE in the BTH region.