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Sustainability 2018, 10(8), 2935; https://doi.org/10.3390/su10082935

An Analysis of Hazardous Chemical Accidents in China between 2006 and 2017

1
Sino-US Global Logistics Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China
2
China Institute for Urban Governance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China
3
Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China
4
School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China
5
College of Economics and Management, Qingdao Agriculture University, Qingdao 266109, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 12 July 2018 / Revised: 4 August 2018 / Accepted: 14 August 2018 / Published: 18 August 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Sustainable Chemistry)
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Abstract

From the perspective of characteristics and causes, probability and forecast, and safety management evaluation, this paper analyzes 3974 hazardous chemical casualty accidents that occurred between 2006 and 2017 in China. The trends, monthly and hourly distributions, lifecycles, chemical and accident types, and the direct and indirect causes of casualty accidents are analyzed first. To estimate the probability of casualty accidents, the Poisson regression model is employed. The time series model is developed to forecast the number of casualty accidents. The safety management of hazardous chemicals is evaluated based on an inverted U-shaped curve that fits the relationship between the number of casualty accidents and petrochemical industry outputs. Moreover, measures for improving the safety management of hazardous chemicals are provided based on the analysis, forecast, and evaluation. The results show that the probability of 200–600 casualty accidents occurring per year in China is 59.10%. Sixteen of thirty provinces are identified as having better safety management with regard to hazardous chemicals. View Full-Text
Keywords: hazardous chemical accidents; safety management evaluation; poisson regression analysis; Kuznets curve; time series model hazardous chemical accidents; safety management evaluation; poisson regression analysis; Kuznets curve; time series model
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Zhao, L.; Qian, Y.; Hu, Q.-M.; Jiang, R.; Li, M.; Wang, X. An Analysis of Hazardous Chemical Accidents in China between 2006 and 2017. Sustainability 2018, 10, 2935.

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