Proposal of Methodology Based on Technical Characterization and Quantitative Contrast of CO₂ Emissions for the Migration to Electric Mobility of the Vehicle Fleet: Case Study of Electric Companies in Ecuador

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the feasibility of replacing internal combustion vehicles (ICVs) with homologated electric vehicles (EVs) within Ecuador’s electricity supply companies, using a structured methodology to ensure operational efficacy and emissions reduction. This was carried out by considering a methodology that allows standardized decision criteria for replacement through determining specific requirements, contrasting technical characteristics, and estimating emissions reduction without compromising the development of transportation daily activities within the companies. The results showed that there are three main categories of combustion-powered vehicles that have electric counterparts, for they are suitable to be replaced under certain operation parameters with a significant reduction in the annual CO₂ emissions of around 85%. However, considering market availability and technical constraints, a realistic migration scenario suggests 56% reduction in CO₂ emissions. Electric mobility presents a compelling opportunity for decarbonization; achieving true sustainability will require the continued diversification and decarbonization of the national electricity supply, given that 90% of electricity production is based on renewable energy.

1. Introduction

The continuous rise in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions resulting from anthropogenic activities has been identified as a principal driver of climate change and the disruption of the natural carbon cycle. This escalating environmental crisis has evolved into a critical global concern, urging the development and implementation of alternative strategies across various key sectors to mitigate its adverse effects both in the short and long term. Among these sectors, transportation stands out as a significant contributor, historically heavily relying on fossil fuels to meet its energy demands. This dependence has not only made transportation one of the largest consumers of energy but has also positioned it as a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, leading to severe environmental degradation and a decline in air quality worldwide [1]. Given this context, it is imperative to foster the advancement of innovative technologies and viable alternatives aimed at reducing fossil fuel dependency within the transport sector. One promising pathway is the transition toward electro-mobility, which has been widely recognized as a pivotal strategy for the decarbonization of transportation systems. Numerous studies underscore the potential of EVs and related technologies to significantly lower GHG emissions, thus contributing to global climate goals [2,3,4]. However, the widespread adoption of electro-mobility introduces a range of technical and infrastructural challenges that must be addressed. Chief among these is the increased load on electrical distribution networks, which could lead to grid instability, resource allocation issues, and potential disruptions in supply if not properly managed. Therefore, achieving a sustainable transition requires a comprehensive approach that not only promotes electro-mobility but also ensures the resilience and adaptability of energy systems to accommodate evolving demand patterns [5,6,7].

Electro-mobility (e-mobility) emphasizes the adoption of traction systems powered by electricity to propel various forms of transportation. Unlike traditional internal combustion vehicles (ICVs), EVs generate no direct CO₂ or other GHG emissions while in motion or when idling during mandatory stops at traffic lights, pedestrian crossings, or traffic jams. This feature not only significantly reduces direct emissions but also indirectly contributes to the minimization of fossil fuel use across the energy supply chain, as highlighted by [8]. Moreover, e-mobility introduces substantial improvements in energy conversion efficiency. The technology embedded in EVs, particularly in electric drive trains and power electronics, enables energy conversion efficiencies that can exceed 85%, a remarkable contrast to the approximately 30–35% efficiency typically observed in conventional ICVs. This stark difference illustrates the transformative potential of e-mobility technologies in enhancing energy utilization, reducing primary energy demand, and mitigating environmental impacts associated with transportation. Furthermore, when coupled with low-carbon electricity generation sources, the environmental benefits of e-mobility can be further amplified, offering a clear pathway towards achieving significant reductions in the overall carbon footprint of the transport sector.

In the case of Ecuador, the current energy matrix presents a unique and highly advantageous scenario for the electrification of the transport sector. As of 2023, approximately 92% of the nation’s electricity production is sourced from hydroelectric power, supplemented by an additional 1% from non-conventional renewable sources such as solar, wind, and biomass, with only 7% stemming from thermal (fossil-based) generation. Public entities are responsible for approximately 87% of the country’s total electricity production, ensuring a significant degree of centralized management and planning capacity for future energy transitions [9,10,11]. Furthermore, Ecuador has achieved a national electricity coverage rate of 97.63%, indicating near-universal access to electric power across its territory [12].

These conditions collectively create a robust platform for advancing the decarbonization of the transportation sector through the accelerated adoption of EVs. Unlike in regions where EV integration might inadvertently rely on carbon-intensive power grids, Ecuador’s predominately renewable-based energy matrix means that the electricity used for vehicle charging would largely originate from clean sources. As a result, the direct GhG emissions traditionally associated with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles could be substantially eliminated, while indirect emissions—linked to the generation of electricity—would remain minimal. This alignment between energy production and sustainable transportation objectives positions Ecuador as an exemplary case for studying the impacts, opportunities, and challenges of large-scale EV adoption in emerging economies. It also emphasizes the strategic importance of ensuring that future mobility solutions are integrated with renewable energy resources to maximize environmental benefits [9,13].

Nevertheless, the integration of EVs into Ecuador’s transport sector remains considerably limited. A significant barrier to widespread adoption has been the government’s long-standing policy of subsidizing fossil fuels, which has artificially reduced the cost of operating ICVs. This subsidy structure has created a substantial economic disincentive for consumers to transition toward EVs, as the immediate cost benefits of maintaining ICVs often outweigh the perceived advantages of adopting cleaner technologies [14]. Consequently, despite the growing global momentum toward sustainable mobility solutions, Ecuador’s EV market has struggled to gain traction at the desired pace. However, the strategic potential for e-mobility in Ecuador remains considerable, particularly given the country’s electricity generation mix, which is largely based on renewable energy sources. If leveraged appropriately, this renewable capacity could significantly enhance the environmental benefits of EV adoption, enabling a more sustainable and low-carbon transport system [15]. Unlocking this potential will require the implementation of comprehensive and forward-looking public policies, the establishment of targeted economic incentives to make EVs more financially attractive to consumers, and substantial investment in the development of a robust charging infrastructure network. Additionally, public awareness campaigns and initiatives aimed at fostering consumer confidence and familiarity with EV technologies will be essential to overcome existing socio-economic and cultural barriers. In this context, the transition toward e-mobility in Ecuador represents not only an environmental imperative but also an opportunity to modernize the transportation sector and align national development strategies with global sustainability objectives [16,17,18].

Despite the growing global momentum toward electro-mobility, there remains a notable gap in comprehensive methodological studies addressing the transition to EVs within the Ecuadorian context. Specifically, few studies have proposed frameworks that integrate standardized criteria for vehicle migration, the detailed determination of technical and operational requirements, the rigorous comparison of technical specifications between ICVs and EVs, the quantitative verification of emission reductions, and estimation of the potential volume of vehicles that could successfully undergo technological conversion. For instance, the work presented in [19] highlights the economic benefits and outlines the policy incentives aimed at promoting the acquisition of EVs in Ecuador. While these findings are valuable, the study falls short of providing a quantitative analysis of the actual reduction in CO₂ emissions that could result from a large-scale transition to EVs. In contrast, the study in [6] undertakes a comparative carbon balance assessment between EVs and ICVs with similar technical characteristics, demonstrating that migration to EVs contributes positively to the reduction in environmental impact indicators. However, a more holistic methodological approach that simultaneously addresses technical, environmental, and infrastructural aspects remains lacking in the Ecuadorian context [20].

Recently, battery swapping stations (BSSs) have attracted significant attention, especially in China. Traditionally, electric vehicles and their rechargeable batteries have been viewed as a single, inseparable unit. However, the decentralized nature of user decisions introduces mobility, scattered charging patterns, and unpredictable connections to the power grid—factors that create various uncertainties and challenges for distribution networks. Compared to conventional charging, BSS offers greater flexibility and can recharge vehicles in just a few minutes. Notably, over 160,000 battery-swapping vehicles were sold in China in 2021 alone, marking a 162% increase from the previous year and achieving a market penetration of 4.6%. Currently, more than 1600 BSSs are in operation, and by 2025, it is estimated that sales of battery-swapping vehicles will exceed 1.92 million, with over 30,000 BSSs expected to be in use [21]. Faced with growing competition, car leasing has increasingly become a focal point for both automakers and vehicle distribution companies. As consumer shopping habits evolve, modern buyers are placing value on different factors, leading to a shift in how they perceive car ownership. Leasing offers an affordable alternative for customers and has become a vital segment of the automotive market. In China, car leasing is emerging as a new service sector, playing a crucial role not only in traditional transportation and automotive industries but also in catering to personalized travel needs and supporting major social events. For electric vehicle rental companies, leasing provides a fast and efficient way to generate revenue from a large fleet of vehicles [22].

In this research, we aim to bridge this gap by proposing a comprehensive methodological framework that not only quantifies the environmental benefits of e-mobility adoption but also systematically evaluates the technical feasibility and infrastructure requirements necessary to support a sustainable transition. By integrating these dimensions, this study seeks to provide a robust, evidence-based foundation to guide policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers in fostering a more efficient and accelerated migration towards electric mobility in Ecuador. The present research proposes a methodology to study the replacement of ICVs used in electricity-supplying companies in Ecuador (EE Electric Enterprise) with electric vehicles. It was evidenced that there are 3057 ICVs divided into six different categories classified considering the type of daily activities performed within the EE. Only three categories of vehicles—automobile, SUV, and pickup—have homologated electric counterparts suitable for replacement, with 17 distinct EV models identified for potential implementation.

2. Materials and Methods

This article is conducted by following a sequential series of activities that enable to establish of the link between stakeholders (actors) and technical information considering a holistic framework, obtaining the theoretically ideal EV number to replace the ICV vehicle fleet. The methodology applied in this research is presented in Figure 1, and it comprises five stages:

2.1. Establishment of Stakeholders

The implementation of solutions focused on e-mobility must consider the existing multiple stakeholders to minimize uncertainty within a technological migration process. This research has not considered any economic aspect, for it only addresses regulatory, technical and market feature aspects. The stakeholders can be private or state-owned and have been defined through a top–down analysis as shown in

Table 1. Interaction between aspects and stakeholders.

Aspects	Stakeholders	Interaction
Regulatory	Ecuador National Transit Agency (ANT)	Homologation guidelines for EV offering.
Market	Automotive dealers	Offer development to respond to demand in the EV market.
Technical	Electric Companies of Ecuador	Establishing requirements for the operation and demand of EVs.

.

The key players were chosen considering their hierarchy within the transportation sector as a starting point. The ANT is the state regulation agency managing and directing all the procedures and rules pertinent to the national vehicle fleet. This agency is vital for the analysis because it constantly emits and updates the models and types of homologated vehicles within Ecuador. This means that the transportation market must attain this list, and that the suppliers need to consider these requirements before any vehicle of any technology is offered within the market. Once the stakeholders in each aspect were established, relevant information must be collected and specified to enable the interactions defined in the analysis.

2.2. Collection and Preparation of Information

The collection process focused on locating data that support the interaction processes between each aspect and stakeholder from Table 1 There are three main data required to develop a correlation among the different aspects, as shown in

Table 2. Data sources: aspects-stakeholders.

Aspects	Stakeholders	Data
Regulatory	Ecuador National Transit Agency (ANT)	Vehicle homologation list.
Market	Automotive dealers	Technical data sheets of offered EVs.
Technical	Electric companies of Ecuador	Vehicle fleet database.

.

From the information above, it was evidenced that there are seven categories of ICVs within the Ecuadorian vehicle fleet: automobiles, bus, pickup, van, SUV, motorcycle, and truck. From this, the vehicle fleet of the EEs consists mainly of automobile, SUV, pickups, and trucks. Nevertheless, the information from the homologated vehicle list showed that not all the ICVs categories exhibit an electric counterpart, for the only three categories that can be replaced with EVs within EE companies are automobile, SUVs, and pickup. This is shown in

Table 3. Insights, aspects and stakeholders.

Aspects	Stakeholders	Insights
Regulatory	Ecuador National Transit Agency (ANT)	There are homologated EVs in the light category only (automobiles, pickups and SUVs).
Market	Automotive dealers	Technical data of EVs offered in the light category (automobile, pickup and SUVs).
Technical	Electric companies of Ecuador	Vehicle fleet consists of 3057 vehicles, 80% of them are light vehicles (automobile, pickup and SUVs) using diesel and gasoline The remaining 20% are heavy vehicles, which currently do not have a counterpart as an EV offer in Ecuador.

where insights from this previous analysis are displayed.

2.3. Characterization, Parameterization and Contrast of Technical Parameters

Once the main categories of ICVs and EVs were identified, a technical characterization was performed considering the parameters presented in

Table 4. Parameter description.

Technical Parameters	Description
Brand	Established by the automotive manufacturer.
Model	Established by the automotive manufacturer’s assembly line.
Type	Established by the automotive manufacturer’s assembly line.
Load capacity	Established in the technical data sheet of the vehicle.
Number of seats	Defined according to the vehicle model and national homologation (includes driver).
Fuel consumption	Establishes the vehicle’s performance under operating conditions.
Maximum speed	Established by the technical data sheet of the vehicle.
Torque	Established by the technical data sheet of the vehicle.
Engine power	Established by the technical data sheet of the vehicle.

. These parameters allow us to compare from a technical perspective the ICVs used in the EE companies with respect to the homologated EVs, and to determine the feasibility of total or partial replacement.

Based on these parameters, it is possible to establish a quantitative baseline to contrast the ICVs features with the EVs characteristics such that the technical requirements resemble among them or the replacement assures that the EV perform similar to the ICVs. The values of the required technical specifications are presented in

Table 5. Parameter baseline.

Type of Vehicle	Parameter Baseline	Value	Unit
Pickup	Power	120	kW
	Torque	360	N·m
	Load capacity	1245	kg
	Maximum speed	175	km/h
	Seating	5	Passenger
SUV	Power	103	kW
	Torque	183	N·m
	Maximum speed	175	km/h
	Seats	5	Passenger
Automobile	Power	100	kW
	Torque	285	N·m
	Maximum speed	145	km/h
	Seats	5	Passenger

.

Once the baseline thresholds for the ICVs have been defined, their equivalents with electric vehicles are parameterized, using the ANT vehicle homologation list. As a result of this, it was evidenced that there are 38 approved EV models corresponding to the three main categories (automobiles, pickup and SUV), vehicles that do not exceed five seats excluding the driver’s seat, and vehicles whose gross weight does not exceed 3500 kg.

The information described in Table 4 and

Table 6. EV technical parameters.

Type of Vehicle	Parameter Baseline	Value	Unit
Pickup	Power	120	kW
	Torque	420	N·m
	Battery capacity	118	kWh
	Maximum speed	100	km/h
	Seating	5	Passenger
SUV	Power	40–240	kW
	Torque	183	N·m
	Battery capacity	40–95	kWh
	Maximum speed	100–180	km/h
	Seats	5	Passenger
Automobile	Power	100	kW
	Torque	285	N·m
	Battery capacity	35–180
	Maximum speed	100–180	km/h
	Seats	5	Passenger

together with the characteristics of the 36 EV models allows one to develop of a theoretical technical comparison between the baseline parameters of ICVs versus the EVs features in order to identify and select the models that potentially could fulfill or would exceed the requirements detailed in Table 5. Table 6 shows an example of the different parameters and their values for each category of EVs considered.

In the case of the pickup type, there are only two homologated EV models suitable for the transition while there are 17 EV models for the SUV and automobile categories, respectively.

2.4. Estimation of CO₂ Emissions

The estimation of emissions produced is calculated using the methodology developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [23]:

$$E=\sum \left[C_a·F_a\right]$$

(1)

where

• E is the total CO₂ emissions expressed in kg.
• $F_a$ is the emissions factor expressed in kg/TJ, and it is specific to the type of fuel consumed.
• $C_a$ is the fuel consumed or combusted by the vehicle expressed in TJ, and it is taken to be equal to the fuel sold.

The aforementioned variables and constants are found as implicit information in the data collected from each stakeholder, for it is necessary to disaggregate them considering the applicability of (1) and the scope of the study case. Thus, $C_a$ is obtained from the product between the annual average routes of the vehicle and its respective specific fuel consumption, and $F_a$ is detailed in [23] which is defined based on the type of fuel and the activity performed (

Table 7. Estimated Annual CO₂ Emissions from Emissions from Internal Combustion Vehicles (ICVs) in Electricity Sector.

Vehicle Type	Pickup	Automobile	Pickup	SUV
Quantity	1320	14	581	529
Energy Source	Diesel	Gasoline	Gasoline	Gasoline
Average Distance [km]	19,537.18	13,700.92	17,143.38	18,556.66
Specific Consumption [km/gal]	35.7	40	31	34
* ${\mathit{C}}_{\mathit{a}}$ Consumption [TJ]	102.74	0.623	41.77	37.54
Emissions Factor (Fa) [kg/TJ]	74,100	69,300	69,300	69,300
Emissions [Ton]	7613	43	2895	2601

* Calculated using low heating values in MJ/kg from [1].

).

As the electricity produced in Ecuador does not come only from using renewable sources but also from consuming oil and gas, there are indirect CO₂ emissions as a result of the combustion process of these resources. Therefore, this needs to be considered as indirect emissions in the development of electromobility and CO₂ accounting.

Table 8. Estimated Indirect CO₂ Emissions from Electric Vehicles (EVs) Based on Ecuador´s Electricity Mix.

Vehicle Type	Pickup	Automobile	SUV
Quantity	1901	14	529
Energy Source	Electric	Electric	Electric
Average Distance [km]	18,340.28	13,700.92	18,556.66
Specific Consumption [kWh/km]	0.19	0.14	0.19
$C_a$ Consumption [MWh]	6624.33	26.85	1865.13
Emissions Factor [tonCO2/MWh]	0.3230	0.3230	0.3230
Emissions [ton]	2139.658	8.672	599.529

shows the forecast of CO₂ emissions produced indirectly in the operation of EVs due to the consumption of electrical energy required for battery charging. The forecast considers a total migration of the vehicle fleet in the pickup, automobile and SUVs from the EE shown in Table 6. The emissions factor $F_a$ is established as a constant for all categories, and maintains the same average annual trips made by internal combustion vehicles as indicated in [24,25].

2.5. Determination of Theoretically Suitable Alternatives

The determination of alternatives is a systematic and iterative process that verifies and assigns a compliance rating to each parameter evaluated within each vehicle category. This evaluation establishes the parameter defined in the ICV baseline as the minimum threshold to be met or exceeded for the EV alternative. If the parameter presented by the EV is greater than or equal to that of the ICV baseline, it is assigned a rating equal to 1, otherwise, it is 0. At the end of each iteration, a result is obtained which is equal to the sum of points obtained for each alternative as shown in

Table 9. Contrast of ICV vs. EV parameters.

Vehicle Type	ICV Baseline Parameter	EV Parameters	Qualification Q
Automobile/ Pickup/ SUV	ICV 1	EV 1	Q 1
	ICV 2	EV 2	Q 2
	…	…	…
	…	…	…
	…	…	…
	…	…	…
	…	….	…
	ICV n	EV n	Q n
Total			${\displaystyle \sum _{i=1}^n}{Q}_i$

[26].

For the pickup type, an EV alternative is selected if it achieves 5 points, whereas for automobile and SUV categories, the alternative is chosen if it achieves 4 points. The analysis showed that only 44% of the EV Ecuadorian market offer fulfills the requirements to replace the vehicles of the EE companies. Within this percentage, 12% corresponds to pick-up vehicles, 53% belongs to SUVs, and 35% to the automobile type, as presented in Figure 2. The replacement analysis of diesel-powered vehicles is illustrated in Figure 3, while Figure 4 presents the results for gasoline-powered units, both highlighting the transition to EVs across the different vehicle categories.

3. Results

The findings of this study provide strong quantitative evidence supporting the environmental and operational feasibility of replacing ICVs with EVs in Ecuador’s electricity supply companies (EEs). The current fleet of 2444 ICVs—primarily powered by gasoline and diesel—was found to be responsible for approximately 13,153 tons of CO₂ emissions annually. These emissions are a direct consequence of fossil fuel combustion and highlight the transport sector’s significant contribution to national greenhouse gas inventories.

Under a hypothetical full fleet transition scenario, where all eligible ICVs are replaced by EVs, the direct CO₂ emissions would be entirely eliminated. However, due to the fact that a small portion of Ecuador’s electricity still originates from thermoelectric sources, indirect emissions related to EV operation remain. These residual emissions, calculated at 2748 tons of CO₂ per year, account for only 20.89% of the emissions associated with the current fleet, demonstrating a remarkable 79.11% reduction in total CO₂ emissions.

This significant decrease underscores the transformative environmental potential of electric mobility, particularly in a country like Ecuador, where over 90% of electricity generation is sourced from renewable—mainly hydroelectric—resources. The results suggest that fleet electrification not only curbs greenhouse gas emissions but also reduces dependence on imported fossil fuels—thus contributing to improved energy security and national climate targets. Moreover, the avoided emissions reflect an opportunity for substantial public sector leadership in the adoption of sustainable technologies, potentially catalyzing broader adoption in private and municipal vehicle fleets.

However, given that only 44% of the existing vehicle fleet of Ecuador’s electricity supply companies currently has homologated electric equivalents that meet the necessary technical specifications, it is essential to evaluate the CO₂ mitigation potential under a more realistic scenario. To this end, a comparative analysis was conducted between two distinct cases: (i) the current baseline emissions generated by the fleet operating with internal ICVs, and (ii) the projected emissions following a partial fleet replacement with suitable electric vehicles EVs.

In the baseline scenario, the total CO₂ emissions from the full fleet—primarily fueled by gasoline and diesel—were estimated at approximately 13,153 tons per year. For the post-replacement scenario, emissions were recalculated by considering the reduced number of ICVs (i.e., those without viable EV counterparts) and the indirect emissions generated by the electricity used to power the new EVs. The difference between these two cases provides a quantifiable estimate of avoided emissions. As shown in Figure 5, the replacement of eligible internal combustion vehicles with electric alternatives leads to a significant drop in total CO₂ emissions. Additionally, Figure 6 illustrates the net amount of emissions avoided under this partial replacement scenario, reinforcing the environmental benefits of a targeted electrification strategy.

The analysis revealed that transitioning the eligible 44% of the fleet to electric alternatives would result in a net reduction of approximately 7362 tons of CO₂ annually. This corresponds to a 56% decrease in emissions relative to the original ICV-dominated fleet. This substantial reduction demonstrates the significant environmental impact that even a partial electrification strategy can achieve. It also highlights the importance of expanding the range of homologated EV models—particularly in heavy-duty vehicle categories—to unlock the full decarbonization potential of the transport sector in Ecuador.

To develop a truly feasible and sustainable proposal for the large-scale adoption of EVs, it is critical to recognize the strategic role of a diverse and well-coordinated group of stakeholders. These include government regulatory agencies, electric utility companies, vehicle manufacturers and distributors, and end users. The availability of a wide variety of homologated EV models that meet diverse operational requirements is essential to ensure the successful replacement of internal combustion vehicles (ICVs) without compromising performance or utility. By fostering a competitive and technically responsive EV market, stakeholders can help overcome existing barriers to adoption and stimulate demand in currently underserved niches, thereby accelerating the national transition to electromobility.

However, this transition is not without challenges. One of the most pressing issues is the increased electricity demand that results from replacing fossil-fueled vehicles with EVs. In the specific context of Ecuador’s electricity supply companies, the migration to EVs is projected to generate an additional annual electricity demand of approximately 8516.31 MWh. This surge in demand places a considerable burden on the national power grid, particularly on local distribution networks that may not be designed to accommodate such rapid changes in load profiles. Without proactive investment in grid infrastructure, smart charging systems, and load management strategies, the risk of voltage instability, peak load issues, and supply interruptions increases significantly.

Moreover, the transition to e-mobility also necessitates a parallel transformation in consumer behavior and energy usage patterns. End users must adapt to new vehicle charging routines, possibly shifting to off-peak hours to mitigate grid stress and improve system efficiency. Policies and incentives—such as time-of-use tariffs, demand response programs, and public charging infrastructure—must therefore be aligned with these technical requirements to promote rational electricity consumption and grid stability.

Thus, the pathway to a sustainable e-mobility ecosystem in Ecuador involves more than the technical feasibility of replacing ICVs with EVs. It requires an integrated approach that harmonizes vehicle technology, grid capacity, stakeholder coordination, and user engagement within a supportive regulatory and economic framework.

4. Discussion

The transition towards electro-mobility in Ecuador, particularly within the public sector vehicle fleets such as electric utilities, represents a strategic opportunity to significantly reduce GHG emissions while capitalizing on the country’s predominantly renewable energy matrix. The methodology proposed in this study systematically addresses technical, regulatory, and market considerations for fleet migration, demonstrating not only the feasibility of replacing ICVs with EVs but also quantifying the tangible environmental benefits.

In order to promote electric mobility in the country, the Government of Ecuador, through the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM), proposes the initiative to migrate the vehicle fleet that belongs to the electricity sector towards electric mobility, as an alternative for decarbonization aligning with sustainable mobility.

Within the regulatory context of Ecuador, the following regulatory bodies are highlighted, in which incentives and policies for electromobility are established:

(1)

The National Energy Efficiency Plan 2016–2035 (PLANEE)—Its main objective is to improve efficiency in the use of energy in all sectors of the country to reduce energy demand, optimize available energy resources and reduce the environmental impacts derived from energy consumption.

(2)

National Electromobility Strategy for Ecuador (ENEM)—Is a planning document that seeks to “contribute to the decarbonization and sustainability of ground-based transportation in Ecuador from the environmental, social and economic standpoint. ENEM represents the structuring instrument of all policies and actions at the national and local levels which are aimed at promoting the adoption of electromobility, resulting in the reduction of polluting emissions, increased energy efficiency, savings for the government and health benefits”. Goals are also established in ENEM for the adoption of electric vehicles in specific segments of the vehicle fleet, to reduce emissions in the energy sector by 9% in 2025. This approach is aligned with the Organic Law on Energy Efficiency, which states that all vehicles incorporated into public transport from 2030 onwards must be electric. This was previously set to the year 2025 and later reformed to the current goal.

The country has an electricity matrix with a high share of hydro-renewable energy (approximately 60% of total installed capacity and approximately 78% of electricity generation in 2021). In addition, a variety of renewable energy sources including hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal, and biomass have been identified as a potential for power generation.

Ecuador understands the need to decarbonize the transport sector, which is currently responsible for 51.9% of emissions in the energy sector [11]. Therefore, it is imperative to create a public policy that establishes the necessary guidelines to promote the adoption of electromobility and encourage collaboration with the Decentralized Autonomous Governments (DAGs) to incorporate electric mobility into their development plans. Moreover, it is important to begin the adoption of electric vehicles within government entities, so that the general population moves away from the fear of new technologies.

The results reveal that a full replacement of eligible vehicles would achieve a CO₂ emissions reduction of approximately 79.11%. However, given current market limitations—where only 44% of the fleet has homologated EV counterparts that meet operational requirements—the realistically prevented emissions amount to a 56% reduction. This underlines the importance of expanding the national electric vehicle offering, particularly in segments such as light trucks and specialized utility vehicles, to maximize the decarbonization potential.

An important outcome of this research is the recognition of the indirect emissions resulting from the use of grid electricity, which, despite Ecuador’s largely renewable matrix, still includes a fraction of thermoelectric generation. Even so, the indirect emissions associated with EV operations remain considerably lower than the direct emissions produced by the existing ICV fleet, confirming the environmental superiority of electro-mobility in the Ecuadorian context.

Moreover, the increase in electricity demand, estimated at approximately 8516.31 MWh annually for the electric companies’ fleet alone, introduces critical challenges related to grid stability and energy management. This highlights the necessity of parallel investments in smart grid technologies, demand-side management strategies, and renewable energy capacity expansion to support a sustainable and resilient e-mobility transition.

As a result, a boost of confidence and an effective transition will allow the commitments in terms of climate change policies and energy savings goals to be met, transforming ground-based transportation in Ecuador into a more competitive sector in Latin America.

The methodology and findings presented serve as a model for further studies aiming to operationalize and scale electro-mobility in Ecuador and comparable regions. Future research should incorporate economic analysis, lifecycle assessment, and grid impact studies to fully support strategic decision making for sustainable transport transitions.

5. Conclusions

This research proposed and validated a structured methodology to assess the technical and environmental feasibility of migrating the vehicle fleet of Ecuador’s electric companies from ICVs to electric vehicles EVs. Through a systematic process of technical characterization, standardized parameterization, and emissions estimation, the study demonstrated that a full replacement could theoretically reduce CO₂ emissions by up to 87.5%. However, considering market availability and technical constraints, a realistic migration scenario suggests a 56% reduction in CO₂ emissions.

The findings highlight that although Ecuador’s electricity matrix is predominantly clean—with over 90% sourced from renewable hydropower—indirect emissions from thermal sources must still be considered in the full environmental impact assessment. Thus, while e-mobility presents a compelling opportunity for decarbonization, achieving true sustainability will require the continued diversification and decarbonization of the national electricity supply.

The methodology also confirmed that the current homologated EV options in Ecuador offer suitable alternatives to fulfill operational requirements for automobiles, SUVs, and pickups within electric companies, ensuring that daily transport activities can be maintained without performance compromise. Nonetheless, expanding the variety and technical capabilities of EVs available in the local market remains critical to further facilitate fleet transitions across broader vehicle categories.

Considering the CO₂ emission calculation in this research, a tank-to-wheel analysis was performed. This means that only the emissions from the fuel consumed by the vehicle have been considered when functioning to cover the majority of its footprint. Nevertheless, a thorough analysis of emissions considering a well-to-wheel methodology would exhibit a holistic result of direct and indirect emissions, probably resulting in an increase in the result presented in this research.

However, Ecuador’s electricity production has tended to be hydro with the small participation of thermoelectric companies that keep a base generation to keep the grid stable. This favors the development of e-mobility while lowering the indirect emissions aligning with the objectives of climate change agreements.

The variety of homologated vehicles in Ecuador makes it possible to choose the appropriate vehicles to replace the ICVs of the electric energy companies without compromising the fulfillment of all the daily activities performed without compromising.