Impact of New Energy Vehicle Development on China’s Crude Oil Imports: An Empirical Analysis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Variable Selection and Data Sources
3.2. Time Series Smoothness Test
3.3. Multiple Linear Regression Modeling
4. Result and Discussion
4.1. Time Series Analysis
import | nev | price | pro | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 33,549.00 | 1.25% | 303.15 | 21,393.80 |
2016 | 38,104.00 | 1.79% | 284.23 | 19,957.80 |
2017 | 41,394.70 | 2.65% | 343.75 | 19,190.80 |
2018 | 46,399.40 | 4.44% | 428.69 | 18,863.90 |
2019 | 50,588.70 | 4.68% | 392.93 | 19,126.70 |
2020 | 54,240.00 | 5.22% | 220.08 | 19,499.10 |
2021 | 51,323.80 | 13.43% | 449.41 | 19,939.40 |
CAGR for 2015–2021 | 6.26% | 40.36% | 5.79% | −1.00% |
CAGR for 2015–2018 | 8.44% | 37.25% | 9.05% | −3.10% |
CAGR for 2019–2021 | 0.48% | 42.06% | 4.58% | 1.40% |
Year-on-year growth rate 2020–2021 | −5.38% | 156.97% | 104.20% | 2.26% |
4.2. Model Testing
4.3. Regression Results and Analysis
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test for Unit Root | Number of Obs. = 81 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Interpolated Dickey–Fuller | ||||||
Test Statistic | 1% Critical Value | 5% Critical Value | 10% Critical Value | |||
Z(t) | −3.610 | −4.082 | −3.469 | −3.161 | ||
MacKinnon approximate p-value for Z(t) = 0.0290 | ||||||
D. | Coef. | Std. Err. | t | p >|t| | [95% Conf. Interval] | |
L1. | −0.465582 | 0.1289637 | −3.61 | 0.001 | −0.7224354 | −0.2087286 |
LD. | −0.1428571 | 0.1288302 | −1.11 | 0.271 | −0.3994446 | 0.1137304 |
L2D. | −0.0507267 | 0.111588 | −0.45 | 0.651 | −0.2729736 | 0.1715201 |
_trend | 0.0146344 | 0.0045483 | 3.22 | 0.002 | 0.0055756 | 0.0236931 |
_cons | −2.169748 | 0.630921 | −3.44 | 0.001 | −3.426336 | −0.9131595 |
Variables | Description |
---|---|
Natural logarithm of crude oil imports | |
Elasticity coefficient of each explanatory variable concerning the explanatory variable | |
Natural logarithm of crude oil price values | |
Natural logarithm of new energy vehicle sales/car sales | |
Natural logarithm of crude oil production | |
Random interference term |
Year | The Growth Rate of Car Sales | The Growth Rate of New Energy Vehicle Sales | The Growth Rate of the New Energy Vehicle Market Share |
---|---|---|---|
2016 | 13.74% | 62.93% | 43.25% |
2017 | 3.59% | 53.34% | 48.03% |
2018 | −2.97% | 62.36% | 67.34% |
2019 | −8.29% | −3.25% | 5.49% |
2020 | −1.83% | 9.53% | 11.57% |
2021 | 3.82% | 166.79% | 156.97% |
Instrumental Variables (GMM) Regression | Number of Obs. = 83 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wald chi2(3) = 217.17 | ||||||
Prob>chi2 = 0.0000 | ||||||
R-squared = 0.6524 | ||||||
GMM weight matrix: Robust | Root MSE = 0.10593 | |||||
Coef. | Robust Std. Err. | z | p >|z| | [95% Conf. Interval] | ||
0.1552873 | 0.0132317 | 11.74 | 0.000 | 0.1293537 | 0.1812209 | |
−0.1631925 | 0.0311057 | −5.25 | 0.000 | −0.2241586 | −0.1022263 | |
−1.339897 | 0.2731435 | −4.91 | 0.000 | −1.875248 | −0.8045455 | |
_cons | 19.6154 | 2.036066 | 9.63 | 0.000 | 15.62479 | 23.60602 |
Source | SS | df | MS | Number of Obs. = 83 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model | 5.11711104 | 1 | 5.11711104 | F(1, 81) = 6.62 | ||
Residual | 62.5767142 | 81 | 0.772552027 | Prob > F = 0.0119 | ||
Total | 67.6938253 | 82 | 0.825534454 | R-squared = 0.0756 | ||
Adj R-squared = 0.0642 | ||||||
Root MSE = 0.87895 | ||||||
Coef. | Std. Err. | t | p >|t| | [95% Conf. Interval] | ||
0.7201797 | 0.2798288 | 2.57 | 0.012 | 0.1634083 | 1.276951 | |
_cons | −7.600421 | 1.625701 | −4.68 | 0.000 | −10.83506 | −4.365787 |
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Share and Cite
Guo, Z.; Sun, S.; Wang, Y.; Ni, J.; Qian, X. Impact of New Energy Vehicle Development on China’s Crude Oil Imports: An Empirical Analysis. World Electr. Veh. J. 2023, 14, 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj14020046
Guo Z, Sun S, Wang Y, Ni J, Qian X. Impact of New Energy Vehicle Development on China’s Crude Oil Imports: An Empirical Analysis. World Electric Vehicle Journal. 2023; 14(2):46. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj14020046
Chicago/Turabian StyleGuo, Zehui, Shujie Sun, Yishan Wang, Jingru Ni, and Xuepeng Qian. 2023. "Impact of New Energy Vehicle Development on China’s Crude Oil Imports: An Empirical Analysis" World Electric Vehicle Journal 14, no. 2: 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj14020046