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Spatial–Temporal Variations in Atmospheric Factors Contribute to SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak

Biocomputing Unit, Genewerk GmbH, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
Department of Infectious Diseases, Integrative Virology, Heidelberg University Hospital, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
German Center for Infection Research, Partner Site Heidelberg, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Viruses 2020, 12(6), 588;
Received: 27 April 2020 / Revised: 21 May 2020 / Accepted: 26 May 2020 / Published: 27 May 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Computational Biology of Viruses: From Molecules to Epidemics)
The global outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has reached over five million confirmed cases worldwide, and numbers are still growing at a fast rate. Despite the wide outbreak of the infection, a remarkable asymmetry is observed in the number of cases and in the distribution of the severity of the COVID-19 symptoms in patients with respect to the countries/regions. In the early stages of a new pathogen outbreak, it is critical to understand the dynamics of the infection transmission, in order to follow contagion over time and project the epidemiological situation in the near future. While it is possible to reason that observed variation in the number and severity of cases stems from the initial number of infected individuals, the difference in the testing policies and social aspects of community transmissions, the factors that could explain high discrepancy in areas with a similar level of healthcare still remain unknown. Here, we introduce a binary classifier based on an artificial neural network that can help in explaining those differences and that can be used to support the design of containment policies. We found that SARS-CoV-2 infection frequency positively correlates with particulate air pollutants, and specifically with particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5), while ozone gas is oppositely related with the number of infected individuals. We propose that atmospheric air pollutants could thus serve as surrogate markers to complement the infection outbreak anticipation. View Full-Text
Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; infection dynamics; viral outbreak; PM2.5; ozone SARS-CoV-2; infection dynamics; viral outbreak; PM2.5; ozone
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MDPI and ACS Style

Fronza, R.; Lusic, M.; Schmidt, M.; Lucic, B. Spatial–Temporal Variations in Atmospheric Factors Contribute to SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak. Viruses 2020, 12, 588.

AMA Style

Fronza R, Lusic M, Schmidt M, Lucic B. Spatial–Temporal Variations in Atmospheric Factors Contribute to SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak. Viruses. 2020; 12(6):588.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Fronza, Raffaele, Marina Lusic, Manfred Schmidt, and Bojana Lucic. 2020. "Spatial–Temporal Variations in Atmospheric Factors Contribute to SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak" Viruses 12, no. 6: 588.

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