Uncertainty, Belief Bias, and Nudges in Forest Harvesting: Evidence from a Young Fruiting Body Experiment

Liu, Jinglin; Jia, Yuning; Wu, Chengliang; Zhang, Yang

doi:10.3390/f17050601

Open AccessArticle

Uncertainty, Belief Bias, and Nudges in Forest Harvesting: Evidence from a Young Fruiting Body Experiment

School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China

^*

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

^†

These authors contributed equally to this work.

Forests 2026, 17(5), 601; https://doi.org/10.3390/f17050601

Submission received: 16 April 2026 / Revised: 5 May 2026 / Accepted: 14 May 2026 / Published: 15 May 2026

(This article belongs to the Section Forest Economics, Policy, and Social Science)

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Abstract

This paper uses a young fruiting body harvesting experiment to examine how uncertainty affects improper behavior and how two nudges, prior selection and consequence viewing, can mitigate or shape this behavior. Uncertainty promotes improper harvesting, with harvesting rates higher under ambiguity than under risk. It also induces belief bias, yet this bias drives behavior only when consequences are observable. Prior selection reduces harvesting through an anchoring mechanism, whereas consequence viewing alone has little effect. Notably, combining the two nudges produces a boomerang effect: harvesting rates rise above those observed under prior selection alone. These findings inform behavioral interventions for natural resource management.

Keywords: uncertainty; belief bias; nudge; boomerang effect; common-pool resources

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MDPI and ACS Style

Liu, J.; Jia, Y.; Wu, C.; Zhang, Y. Uncertainty, Belief Bias, and Nudges in Forest Harvesting: Evidence from a Young Fruiting Body Experiment. Forests 2026, 17, 601. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17050601

AMA Style

Liu J, Jia Y, Wu C, Zhang Y. Uncertainty, Belief Bias, and Nudges in Forest Harvesting: Evidence from a Young Fruiting Body Experiment. Forests. 2026; 17(5):601. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17050601

Chicago/Turabian Style

Liu, Jinglin, Yuning Jia, Chengliang Wu, and Yang Zhang. 2026. "Uncertainty, Belief Bias, and Nudges in Forest Harvesting: Evidence from a Young Fruiting Body Experiment" Forests 17, no. 5: 601. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17050601

APA Style

Liu, J., Jia, Y., Wu, C., & Zhang, Y. (2026). Uncertainty, Belief Bias, and Nudges in Forest Harvesting: Evidence from a Young Fruiting Body Experiment. Forests, 17(5), 601. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17050601

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Uncertainty, Belief Bias, and Nudges in Forest Harvesting: Evidence from a Young Fruiting Body Experiment

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