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Open AccessArticle

Combining Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios with Current Forest Owner Behavior: A Scenario Study from a Region in Southern Sweden

1
Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sundsvägen 3, SE-230 53 Alnarp, Sweden
2
Department of Forest Resource Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SE-901 83 Umeå, Sweden
3
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
4
Current affiliation: European Commission, Joint Reseach Centre, Via E. Fermi 2749 – TP 261, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Forests 2020, 11(3), 346; https://doi.org/10.3390/f11030346
Received: 1 February 2020 / Revised: 17 March 2020 / Accepted: 18 March 2020 / Published: 20 March 2020
This study investigates the need for change of current forest management approaches in a southern Swedish region within the context of future climate change mitigation through empirically derived projections, rather than forest management according to silvicultural guidelines. Scenarios indicate that climate change mitigation will increase global wood demand. This might call for adjustments of well-established management approaches. This study investigates to what extent increasing wood demands in three climate change mitigation scenarios can be satisfied with current forest management approaches of different intensities in a southern Swedish region. Forest management practices in Kronoberg County were mapped through interviews, statistics, and desk research and were translated into five different management strategies with different intensities regulating management at the property level. The consequences of current practices, as well as their intensification, were analyzed with the Heureka Planwise forest planning system in combination with a specially developed forest owner decision simulator. Projections were done over a 100-year period under three climate change mitigation scenarios developed with the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIUM). Current management practices could meet scenario demands during the first 20 years. This was followed by a shortage of wood during two periods in all scenarios unless rotations were reduced. In a longer timeframe, the wood demands were projected to be easily satisfied in the less ambitious climate change mitigation scenarios. In contrast, the demand in the ambitious mitigation scenario could not be met with current management practices, not even if all owners managed their production forests at the intensive extreme of current management approaches. The climate change mitigation scenarios provide very different trajectories with respect to future drivers of forest management. Our results indicate that with less ambitious mitigation efforts, the relatively intensive practices in the study region can be softened while ambitious mitigation might push for further intensification. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change mitigation scenarios; wood demand; forest management; small-scale forest owners; management strategies; forest owner behavior; decision support systems climate change mitigation scenarios; wood demand; forest management; small-scale forest owners; management strategies; forest owner behavior; decision support systems
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Lodin, I.; Eriksson, L.O.; Forsell, N.; Korosuo, A. Combining Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios with Current Forest Owner Behavior: A Scenario Study from a Region in Southern Sweden. Forests 2020, 11, 346.

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