Probabilistic Orchestrator for Indeterministic Multi-Agent Systems in Real-Time Environments
Abstract
1. Introduction
- Probabilistic orchestration for heterogeneous agents. We introduce an orchestration framework that fuses fast ego perception with delayed, high-confidence external evidence using calibrated confidence, association reliability, and latency-aware policies.
- Uncertainty-aware decision policy. We define an interpretable fusion mechanism that produces an uncertainty-aware output distribution, reducing brittleness compared to deterministic selection and enabling stable behavior under delayed evidence.
- Controlled teacher–student adaptation. We integrate pseudo-labeling and knowledge distillation into the orchestration layer through explicit gating, enabling continual improvement while reducing the risk of error amplification.
- Dual-camera obstacle recognition case study. We demonstrate the approach in an infrastructure-assisted perception setting and analyze robustness under distance, occlusion, and latency variability.
- For high-speed cars, it is very important to detect (classification, objectness, and bounding box) obstacles that are far off, because the braking distance of a car can be very long. Probabilistic orchestration helps to improve obstacle detection for far-away objects.
- The Probabilistic orchestration improves decision quality compared with ego-only detection under long-range and occlusion conditions.
- Probabilistic orchestration improves robustness compared with ego-only and deterministic fusion, especially for long-range and occluded obstacles.
- Latency-aware mixing stabilizes decisions and avoids abrupt behavior under delayed evidence.
- Gated teacher–student adaptation improves ego performance over time while controlling false alarms, reducing reliance on infrastructure signals.
2. Related Work
2.1. Multi-Agent Orchestration and Decision Coordination
2.2. Uncertainty-Aware Fusion and Confidence Calibration
2.3. Teacher–Student Learning, Pseudo-Labeling, and Knowledge Distillation
2.4. Multi-Camera and Infrastructure-Assisted Perception for Autonomous Driving
2.5. Positioning of the Proposed Approach
2.6. Implications for Generative Multi-Agent Systems
3. Use Case and Problem Formulation: Dual-Camera Road Obstacle Recognition
3.1. Problem Motivation and Failure Modes in Ego-Only Perception
- Long-range degradation: Distant obstacles occupy few pixels, reducing discriminative features and increasing confusion with background patterns.
- Occlusion and partial visibility: Obstacles may be partially blocked by other vehicles or road geometry, resulting in fragmented detections or missed objects.
- Illumination changes: Shadows, glare, and nighttime conditions can distort appearance and reduce detector confidence.
- Motion blur: Rapid ego motion and vibration degrade image quality, especially at higher speeds.
- Domain shift: Weather, camera settings, and geographic differences lead to distribution shift and degraded generalization.
3.2. Infrastructure-Assisted Perception Scenario
- Latency and jitter: Sensor outputs are delayed by acquisition, processing, and network transmission, and they may arrive with variable delay.
- Association uncertainty: A stationary camera’s detection must be matched to the ego camera’s observation of the same physical object across different perspectives.
- Partial coverage: Not all environments are instrumented; stationary evidence may be intermittent.
- Heterogeneous failure modes: Stationary detectors can also fail due to weather, occlusion, or miscalibration, and their confidence may not be directly comparable with ego confidence.
3.3. System Overview and Multi-Agent Perception Pipeline
- An ego detection agent that performs real-time object detection from the vehicle’s forward-facing camera.
- A geometric localization agent that maps detection outputs into a shared spatial representation (e.g., using homography or camera calibration).
- A stationary detection agent that detects obstacles from a roadside camera and communicates predictions to the vehicle.
- A cross-view association agent that establishes correspondence between the ego and the stationary detections.
3.4. Scope and Assumptions
- Vision-based detection/classification of road obstacles using ego and stationary cameras.
- Confidence-aware and latency-aware orchestration across heterogeneous agents.
- Cross-view association and reliability scoring.
- Offline/nearline adaptation through pseudo-labeling and knowledge distillation.
- End-to-end motion planning and control.
- Multi-modal fusion with lidar/radar (future work).
- High-definition mapping and full SLAM integration.
- Online model updates without validation (unsafe in practice).
4. Probabilistic Orchestrator Architecture and Decision Policy
4.1. Cross-View Association and Shared Coordinate Representation
- Robustness under uncertainty: Reconcile conflicting predictions and preserve uncertainty when evidence is insufficient.
- Latency-aware decision-making: Produce real-time outputs even when higher-confidence evidence is delayed.
- Association-aware fusion: Incorporate cross-view correspondence reliability as first-class evidence.
- Controlled learning enablement: Generate decision traces and high-confidence supervision signals without amplifying errors.
4.2. Teacher–Student Orchestrator Design, Flow, and Realization
- Fine-tuning/transfer learning for YOLO.
- Knowledge distillation (KD) and KD integration.
- KD loss functions (improved YOLO loss function).
- The public ones: yolov8n.pt, yolov8s.pt, yolo11n.pt, etc.
- The car’s own camera model: carcam_yolov8n.pt.
- We do not re-learn basic things, e.g., “What is an edge? What is a car shape?”
- We adapt to the following:
- ○
- Our camera viewpoint (car + intersection geometry).
- ○
- Small/distant humans and cars.
- ○
- Optionally freezing early layers (mainly to adapt high-level features and the head).
- The teacher says, “This is PERSON”.
- The student uses a hard label: class = person, 1 vs. 0.
- The teacher outputs the following:
- ○
- Class probabilities:P_teacher = [person: 0.82, car: 0.17, dog: 0.01, …].
- ○
- Bounding-box regression confidences.
- The student is trained to match the entire probability distribution, not just the winning class.
- This contains much richer information, especially for ambiguous cases (e.g., small, distant, or partially occluded objects).
- KD was invented for training small models from large models, and it works very well for our case:
- Stationary camera—stronger teacher (better angle, stable, less motion blur).
- Car camera—weaker student (far objects, motion blur, etc.).
- Classification loss.
- Box regression loss.
- Objectness loss.
- Classification KD Loss:
- 2.
- Bounding-Box Distillation Loss
- = student bounding-box prediction.
- = teacher bounding-box prediction.
- The student (car camera) learns better geometry, even when their own camera view is poor.
- This is especially helpful for the following:
- ○
- Distant pedestrians.
- ○
- Side-view objects.
- ○
- Partially occluded objects.
- ○
- Small objects (<16 px).
- 3.
- Objectness Distillation Loss
- The ego (car) camera obtains more false positives (reflections, poles, lights, etc.).
- The stationary camera sees objects more clearly → gives reliable objectness.
- Fewer false positives.
- Stronger positive signals for distant but real objects.
- Better small object recall.
4.3. Mathematical Model of the Probabilistic Orchestrator (Under Simplifying Assumptions)
- Regular inference CNN for image classification and object/bounding-box detection.
- Transfer learning CNN with improved KD (knowledge distillation).
- Lemma 1: The probabilistic orchestrator makes better decisions than the deterministic decision-maker agent.
- Lemma 2: The probabilistic orchestrator (based on our KD training and teacher–student transfer learning model) provides much better object classification confidence.
4.4. Algorithm General Description
- Receive current ego image and corresponding prediction , where is object confidence and (Student side).
- Put into the student confidence queue data structure SQ (student queue).
- Receive the current stationary camera image and corresponding prediction where is the object confidence and (Teacher side).
- Put into the teacher confidence queue data structure TQ (teacher queue).
- Matching both the student confidence queue and the teacher confidence queue accordingly: If and set , otherwise, set .
- Transfer learning step: Provide the transfer learning process (student side) by means of stationary camera images with confidences .
4.5. Physical Orchestrator Model and Simplified Orchestrator Simulator (Math Model of Both Cameras Simulation)
- Stationary camera: Stationary camera simulation will be replaced with a video stream (taken by a YouTube link). Instead of the stationary camera capturing, the central algorithm (math simplifying model) extracts images from this video with a distance to an object not farther than 5 m distance from the camera (this corresponds to the cross road model) and puts corresponding into the teacher queue structure TQ with appropriate time stamps.
- Ego camera: The images extracted from the video file will also be used for ego camera simulation, but they should pass the following procedure: each image (extracted from an appropriate video file) will undergo the following transformation:
- ▪
- Downscaling with factor scales: 0.2 and 0.1 (that will correspond to distances of 50 and 80 m approximately).
- ▪
- Upscaling with factors 5 and 10. The images should be returned to the same pixel sizes to pass the student inference step (as it was described for the ego camera).
- Distant objects experience (optical blur):
- ▪
- Lens blur.
- ▪
- Atmospheric blur.
- Sensor noise amplification. Small objects obtained from the ego camera at a far distance (50–100 m) lead to fewer pixels of the actual object, and this can amplify high-frequency noise.
- Resampling (downscaling and upscaling) can create additional problems of image aliasing.
- Contrast reduction can happen with fog/haze at a far distance.
5. Feedback-Driven Adaptation: Teacher–Student Fine-Tuning and Knowledge Distillation
5.1. Learning Loop Overview
- Candidate collection: Identify time steps where stationary predictions are available and association confidence is high.
- Pseudo-label gating: Filter candidates using teacher confidence, latency constraints, and uncertainty thresholds to reduce label noise.
- Student adaptation: Fine-tune the ego detector using pseudo-labels, optionally combined with a small amount of ground-truth labeled data.
- Controlled deployment: Evaluate and register the updated model; deploy only if it improves key metrics without increasing false alarms beyond an acceptable limit.
- Crucially, we do not perform uncontrolled online learning: model updates are performed offline or nearline and are deployed only after validation and gating checks.
5.2. Student Model and Training Objective
- is the standard detector loss under pseudo-label supervision;
- transfers teacher soft labels to the student;
- controls the distillation strength.
5.3. Detection Loss (Pseudo-Label Supervision)
- and are the pseudo-label class and box from the teacher;
- and are student outputs;
- is typically cross-entropy or focal loss;
- is IoU/GIoU/DIoU loss;
- models objectness confidence.
5.4. Knowledge Distillation Loss (Soft Label Transfer)
- and are teacher and student logits;
- is the distillation temperature;
- is the Kullback–Leibler divergence.
6. Implementation
6.1. System Components and Runtime Pipeline
- Predict (input) → output;
- Metadata → confidence/latency statistics;
- Trace → evidence and internal signals used for auditing.
- Ego inference runs synchronously, frame-by-frame, at time index .
- Stationary camera predictions arrive asynchronously with delay (and optional jitter).
- The orchestrator performs event-driven fusion whenever new stationary evidence becomes available within the fusion window .
6.2. Ego Detector (Student Model)
- Resize to (e.g., 640 × 640).
- Normalize pixel values to .
- Optional augmentation for robustness (color jitter, blur, random crop).
- Bounding boxes ;
- Class distribution ;
- Objectness score .
6.3. Stationary Detector (Teacher Agent A3)
- Stable viewpoint;
- Reduced motion blur;
- Improved long-range visibility.
- Bounding boxes ;
- Class distribution ;
- Objectness scores.
- Communication Payload: Stationary predictions are transmitted along with metadata:
- Timestamp ;
- Estimated delay ;
- Calibration parameters or confidence summary statistics.
- Fixed delay;
- Stochastic delay with jitter: , truncated to positive values.
6.4. Geometric Localization (Agent A2) and Shared Coordinate Frame
6.5. Student Fine-Tuning and Distillation Workflow
- Checkpoint versioning;
- Validation-based early stopping;
- A deployment gate requiring recall improvement while bounding false positive increase and latency regression (Section 5.4).
7. Evaluation
7.1. Evaluation Goals
- Q1. Does probabilistic orchestration improve decision quality compared with ego-only detection under long-range and occlusion conditions?
- Q2. Does probabilistic orchestration outperform deterministic fusion/state-machine baselines under delayed stationary evidence?
- Q3. Does the teacher–student learning loop improve ego detector performance over time without increasing false alarms?
- Q4. How sensitive is performance to latency and association uncertainty?
7.2. Dataset and Experimental Setup
- Training set: Used for initial ego fine-tuning (if applicable) and for collecting pseudo-labels.
- Validation set: Used for confidence calibration, threshold tuning, and gating parameter selection.
- Test set: Held out for final evaluation and latency sensitivity analysis.
7.3. Baselines
- B1: Ego-only detector.
- The ego detector (A1) without stationary assistance.
- This baseline reflects common camera-only real-time perception.
- B2: Deterministic orchestrator (rule-based/state machine).
- B3: Probabilistic orchestrator (ours, no learning).
- B4: Probabilistic orchestrator + teacher–student learning (ours, full).
- B3 plus the gated pseudo-labeling and knowledge distillation adaptation loop described in Section 5.
7.4. Experimental and Synthetic Data
7.5. Latency Modeling
- Fixed delay conditions (e.g., 100, 300, 500 ms);
- Jittered delay conditions (e.g., ).
7.6. Results
7.6.1. Ego/Stationary Cameras’ Model Training Based on the Teacher–Student Transfer Learning Simulation
- Key or IDR image extraction (from H.264vformat encoding).
- Making inference (classification and bounding boxes), this side of the teacher model (stationary camera simulation). Next, we chose only such images where the sizes of the obtained bounding boxes (according to the detected objects) corresponded to distances of less than 5–10 m. Then, the images were extracted according to our simulation of the stationary camera and teacher model (we extracted ~150 images). Below, the stationary image examples were presented: Figure 5. Photo 1, Figure 6. Photo 2 and Figure 7. Photo 3. The image on Figure 8. – this is example that ilustrates the Bounding Boxes inference (stationary camera, Teacher side) for pedestrians and cars objects. The bounding boxes coordinates were used estimating distans from stationar camera to crossroad obstacles.
- The images used for the teacher model (stationary camera) were sent to the student model (ego camera), but with appropriate preprocessing of distant-object simulation. This means that we transformed appropriate images before they were sent to the student model. We used a simple distant-object simulation based on downscaling and immediately upscaled the images. We used two scale factors according to 100 and 50 m distances from the ego camera. The following examples: Figure 9 (downscale with factor 0.2, distanse 50 m), Figure 10 (downscale with factor 0.2, distanse 50 m), Figure 11 (downscale with factor 0.2, distanse 50 m) and Figure 12 (downscale with factor 0.1, distanse 100 m)–these images were undergone downscale and upscale and they simulate ego camera input for transfer learning.
- We used the latency simulation on the teacher side (stationary camera). The evidence delay was evaluated under the following:
- Fixed delay conditions (e.g., 100, 300, 500 ms);
- Jittered delay conditions (e.g., ).
7.6.2. Original Images from Stationary Camera
7.6.3. Scaled (Far Object Distance) Images
7.6.4. Loss Analysis Results and Comparison Chart
- Regular inference (50 m distance to objects, ego camera, see Figure 14.):
- After Scaling (scale factor: 0.1, ~100 m distance):
- After Scaling (scale factor: 0.2, ~50 m distance):
- Regular inference (100 m distance to objects, ego camera, see Figure 15.):
- After Scaling (~100 m distance):
- After Scaling (~50 m distance):
- Summary Statistics
- Average Classification Loss:
- Average Bounding-Box Loss:
- ~100 m distance (10%): 0.3066 (+81.6%).
7.6.5. Benefit of Distillation and Pseudo-Label Gating
7.7. Discussion of Findings
- Probabilistic orchestration improves robustness compared with ego-only and deterministic fusion, especially for long-range and occluded obstacles.
- Latency-aware mixing stabilizes decisions and avoids abrupt behavior under delayed evidence.
- Gated teacher–student adaptation improves ego performance over time while controlling false alarms, reducing reliance on infrastructure signals.
8. Discussion
8.1. The Contribution of Probabilistic Orchestration
- Self-driving vehicles, especially robotaxis and city buses, could be appropriate candidates for the usage of the probabilistic orchestrator. Why could our orchestrator, based on teacher–student KD transfer learning, be used for these self-driving vehicles? The corresponding vehicles, by definition, come with a 5G client–server network communication infrastructure, so it would be easy to integrate our improved transfer learning model (YOLO dataset, for example) for such configurations. As mentioned in Section 4.4, the roles of the teacher and student cameras for vehicle pair (i, j) will be changed depending on whether vehicle [i] or vehicle [j] is closer to the appropriate crossroads. This means that if we are matching the same objects/obstacles captured by both cameras from these vehicles, the teacher camera (temporary) will be situated at the closest car to this object/obstacle.
- For high-speed trains, it is very important to detect (classification, objectness, and bounding box) obstacles that are far off, because the braking distance of a train is very long. Here, the ego camera can be positioned on the train’s roof, and the stationary camera could be positioned at a railway station and/or railway crossing.
8.2. Generalization Beyond the Dual-Camera Use Case
- Fast/low-cost agents (real-time edge models);
- Slow/high-quality agents (infrastructure sensors, cloud services, heavy models);
- Association/verification agents (matching, checking consistency);
- An orchestrator that must decide under uncertainty and timing constraints.
- Potential applications include the following:
- Cooperative perception and V2X sensor networks.
- Robotics perception with multi-view cameras and remote supervision.
- Anomaly detection pipelines, where slow forensic analysis informs fast detection.
- Multi-sensor medical imaging triage pipelines.
8.3. Future Directions and Works
- Probabilistic orchestration patterns could be extended to ego car and stationary cameras for semi-uncertain situations where teacher images suffer from noise (vibrations, bad weather, fog, etc.).
- The infrastructure of self-driving cars (robotaxis, buses) is going to be developed as a multi-client–server 5G network (for a town/area), where each car sends ego camera information to the server and receives teacher camera data in return. For example, if one car is near a crossroads, it sends the ego camera to the server with very strong inference confidence. Another car that is far from this crossroads but driving in its direction can receive appropriate teacher detection data that can be used for both better inference and KD transfer learning, as described in this paper. We presume that this extension of our orchestrator will constitute a prospective model for future self-driving infrastructure.
- The probabilistic orchestration pattern could be extended to human robotics learning processes. The robot walking process is mostly learned in simulators (e.g., NVidia’s Isaac) by means of teacher–student models (RL models). Today, more and more works aim to fuse synthetic simulation learning (in robot simulators) with real-world model learning. Our orchestrator could be used for such a fusion model, and we are planning to research this in future work.
- Learned or adaptive gating policies that adjust thresholds under drift.
- Integration with additional sensors (lidar/radar) and temporal tracking.
- Richer uncertainty models (ensembles or evidential learning).
- Broader evaluation across environments and weather conditions.
- Extension to full multi-agent GenAI orchestration pipelines with verification and policy gating.
9. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
- Ground-plane homography used for proper matching
- Solve once using 4–8 surveyed road points visible in the image (OpenCV findHomography with RANSAC).
- For every detection, take the bottom-center of the bounding box (contact point) , map with (or , depending on convention) to ground coordinates, normalize by scale, and obtain in meters.
- Below, we describe our matching model in detail.
- Matching process.
- How objects and boxes are aligned (post-matching process);
- Timing synchronization.
- First, calibrate both cameras. For each camera (stationary, ego), we need to obtain the intrinsic matrix and the extrinsic parameters , which can be found in the specifications of each camera.
- 2.
- When the matching process is finished, we can continue with the objects and boxes alignment process. For the student–teacher object pair (i, j), the matching has already been found. As described above in the KD transfer learning section, we can apply KD for all components: KD box, KD objectness, and KD class.
- 3.
- Now, we must align the timestamps:
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| Agent | Function | Typical Latency | Typical Confidence | Output |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1: Ego Detector | Real-time obstacle detection on ego camera | Low | Medium (drops at distance/occlusion) | Bounding boxes + class probabilities |
| A2: Ego Localization | Map ego detections to ground-plane/shared coordinates | Low | Medium | Localized boxes/estimated position |
| A3: Stationary Detector | Obstacle detection from roadside camera | Medium | High (better long-range) | Bounding boxes + class probabilities |
| A4: Cross-View Association | Match detections across ego and stationary views | Medium | High when confident match exists | Association score + matched object IDs |
| Component | Purpose |
|---|---|
| YOLO classification | Student still learns hard labels |
| YOLO bounding box | Student learns from their own view |
| YOLO objectness | Student filters own FP/TP |
| KD-cls | Learns teacher’s “soft opinion” |
| KD-bounding-box | Learns teacher’s geometry |
| KD-obj | Learns teacher’s sense of objectness |
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Bovshover, A.; Kojukhov, A.; Levin, I. Probabilistic Orchestrator for Indeterministic Multi-Agent Systems in Real-Time Environments. Algorithms 2026, 19, 261. https://doi.org/10.3390/a19040261
Bovshover A, Kojukhov A, Levin I. Probabilistic Orchestrator for Indeterministic Multi-Agent Systems in Real-Time Environments. Algorithms. 2026; 19(4):261. https://doi.org/10.3390/a19040261
Chicago/Turabian StyleBovshover, Arkady, Andrei Kojukhov, and Ilya Levin. 2026. "Probabilistic Orchestrator for Indeterministic Multi-Agent Systems in Real-Time Environments" Algorithms 19, no. 4: 261. https://doi.org/10.3390/a19040261
APA StyleBovshover, A., Kojukhov, A., & Levin, I. (2026). Probabilistic Orchestrator for Indeterministic Multi-Agent Systems in Real-Time Environments. Algorithms, 19(4), 261. https://doi.org/10.3390/a19040261

