Enhancing Rural Electrification in Tigray: A Geospatial Approach to Hybrid Wind-Solar Site Selection

Renewable energy sources offer a promising future, backed by mature technologies and a viable pathway toward sustainable energy systems. However, careful planning is necessary to efficiently utilize these resources, especially during site selection. Many rural areas lack access to grid electricity, making off-grid hybrid wind-solar power an attractive solution. In the Tigray region of Ethiopia, no such research has been conducted before. This study aims to identify suitable sites for hybrid wind-solar power for rural electrification using Geographic Information System (GIS), Analytic Hierarchy Process, and Monte Carlo simulation. The criteria fall into three categories: Climate, Topography, and Infrastructure, prioritized through pairwise comparisons by thirteen experts from five organizations engaged in renewable energy research, planning, and operations. Monte Carlo simulation was used for sensitivity analysis to address uncertainties in expert judgments and validate the rankings. The spatial analysis reveals 6470 km² as highly suitable for off-grid solar, 76 km² for off-grid wind with predominant easterly winds, and 177 km² as most favorable for hybrid generation. Areas of good suitability measure 447 km² for wind, 44,128 km² for solar, and 16,695 km² for hybrid systems. Based on this assessment, techno-economic analysis quantified the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) under varying solar–wind shares and battery autonomy days. The analysis shows a minimum LCOE of $0.23/kWh with one-day storage and $0.58/kWh with three-day storage, indicating shorter autonomy is more cost-effective while longer autonomy enhances reliability. Sensitivity analysis shows financial parameters, particularly discount rate and battery capital cost, dominate system economics.