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Open AccessArticle
A Two-Layer HiMPC Planning Framework for High-Renewable Grids: Zero-Exchange Test on Germany 2045
by
Alexander Blinn
Alexander Blinn
,
Joshua Bunner
Joshua Bunner and
Fabian Kennel
Fabian Kennel *
Institute for Operations and Technology Management, Trier University of Applied Sciences, Environmental Campus Birkenfeld, Campusallee, 55768 Hoppstädten-Weiersbach, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Energies 2025, 18(21), 5579; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18215579 (registering DOI)
Submission received: 25 September 2025
/
Revised: 17 October 2025
/
Accepted: 21 October 2025
/
Published: 23 October 2025
Abstract
High-renewables grids are planned in min but judged in milliseconds; credible studies must therefore resolve both horizons within a single model. Current adequacy tools bypass fast frequency dynamics, while detailed simulators lack multi-hour optimization, leaving investors without a unified basis for sizing storage, shifting demand, or upgrading transfers. We present a two-layer Hierarchical Model Predictive Control framework that links 15-min scheduling with 1-s corrective action and apply it to Germany’s four TSO zones under a stringent zero-exchange stress test derived from the NEP 2045 baseline. Batteries, vehicle-to-grid, pumped hydro and power-to-gas technologies are captured through aggregators; a decentralized optimizer pre-positions them, while a fast layer refines setpoints as forecasts drift; all are subject to inter-zonal transfer limits. Year-long simulations hold frequency within ±2 mHz for 99.9% of hours and below ±10 mHz during the worst multi-day renewable lull. Batteries absorb sub-second transients, electrolyzers smooth surpluses, and hydrogen turbines bridge week-long deficits—none of which violate transfer constraints. Because the algebraic core is modular, analysts can insert new asset classes or policy rules with minimal code change, enabling policy-relevant scenario studies from storage mandates to capacity-upgrade plans. The work elevates predictive control from plant-scale demonstrations to system-level planning practice. It unifies adequacy sizing and dynamic-performance evaluation in a single optimization loop, delivering an open, scalable blueprint for high-renewables assessments. The framework is readily portable to other interconnected grids, supporting analyses of storage obligations, hydrogen roll-outs and islanding strategies.
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MDPI and ACS Style
Blinn, A.; Bunner, J.; Kennel, F.
A Two-Layer HiMPC Planning Framework for High-Renewable Grids: Zero-Exchange Test on Germany 2045. Energies 2025, 18, 5579.
https://doi.org/10.3390/en18215579
AMA Style
Blinn A, Bunner J, Kennel F.
A Two-Layer HiMPC Planning Framework for High-Renewable Grids: Zero-Exchange Test on Germany 2045. Energies. 2025; 18(21):5579.
https://doi.org/10.3390/en18215579
Chicago/Turabian Style
Blinn, Alexander, Joshua Bunner, and Fabian Kennel.
2025. "A Two-Layer HiMPC Planning Framework for High-Renewable Grids: Zero-Exchange Test on Germany 2045" Energies 18, no. 21: 5579.
https://doi.org/10.3390/en18215579
APA Style
Blinn, A., Bunner, J., & Kennel, F.
(2025). A Two-Layer HiMPC Planning Framework for High-Renewable Grids: Zero-Exchange Test on Germany 2045. Energies, 18(21), 5579.
https://doi.org/10.3390/en18215579
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