Machine Learning Applications in Energy Consumption Forecasting and Management for Electric Vehicles: A Systematic Review
Abstract
1. Introduction
- What machine learning algorithms are most frequently used to forecast energy consumption and battery state of charge (SoC) in electric vehicles, and what are their main applications?
- What factors (e.g., driving style, topography, temperature) are typically considered in ML models for forecasting EV energy consumption?
- What opportunities and challenges are associated with integrating EVs into charging infrastructure and smart grids using ML algorithms?
- What are the most common limitations and challenges related to validating ML/DL models under real-world conditions?
- What are the dominant research directions, and which areas require further investigation?
- Does the distribution of algorithm classes (machine learning, deep learning, neural networks, statistical algorithms) differ significantly between the 2016–2020 and 2021–2025 periods?
- Is publication activity in this area evenly distributed across countries, or is it concentrated in selected hubs?
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Identification
2.2. Screening
2.3. Eligibility
2.4. Included
- Battery: issues related to battery operation, characteristics, state of charge (SoC), and energy storage.
- Charging: charging processes, charging stations, and energy demand.
- Energy networks: supervision and strategies for connecting and transferring energy between EVs and the power grid, including vehicle-to-grid (V2G), smart grids, and energy transmission and distribution.
- Predictive control: advanced energy control strategies, such as model predictive control (MPC).
- Experimental studies: authors conducted their own measurements.
- Literature analyses: reviews and syntheses of existing research.
- Case studies: specific implementations or applications of solutions.
3. State of Art
3.1. Forecasting EV Energy Consumption
3.2. Energy Predictive Control in EVs
3.3. EV Integration with Charging Infrastructure and the Power Grid
3.3.1. Forecasting Charging Demand
3.3.2. Modeling Charging Sessions and EV’s User Behavior
3.3.3. EV Integration with Microgrids and V2G Systems
4. Bibliometric and Statistical Analysis
5. Answers to Research Questions
6. Discussion and Conclusions
- Most models rely on simulation or laboratory data, which means they have not been validated under real-world conditions such as variable traffic density or extreme weather. This reduces their reliability and applicability in practical EV systems. Examples of real-world applications include fleet trials in urban buses ([17,18], reducing consumption variability) and commercial V2G implementations ([95,96], improving grid stability), although broader industrial case studies, such as Tesla’s Autopilot integrations, remain underexplored in the literature;
- DL algorithms such as LSTM and CNNs are computationally complex and require significant hardware resources, which makes it difficult to implement them in low-power, onboard EV systems such as battery management system (BMS) modules;
- Results obtained in one study are difficult to compare directly with those from other publications because of discrepancies in testing protocols (for example, different driving conditions) and a lack of uniform datasets. This significantly hinders the reproducibility of research and meta-analyses.
- Lack of model generalization and challenges with limited data: Despite high accuracy (R2 = 0.99), models are often tested under very specific conditions, which prevents their application in diverse scenarios (e.g., different vehicle types, driving styles, or weather conditions). There is a clear need for research on transfer learning and federated learning to create models that work effectively across heterogeneous vehicle fleets.
- Limited use of benchmark datasets: Commonly used datasets include WLTP-based datasets, which are standardized for laboratory testing but underrepresent real-world variability. Real-world driving datasets such as those described in [64] capture dynamic factors but are limited by privacy concerns and a lack of standardization. These differences highlight the need for open and shared repositories to enhance comparability.
- High computational requirements and lack of real-time scalability: Advanced models such as LSTM and ConvLSTM require significant computational resources. This limits their implementation in low-power, onboard battery management systems. There is a need to develop simplified, optimized models that can operate effectively in real time.
- Data uncertainty and insufficient consideration of external factors: Forecasting models often overlook dynamic, nonlinear dependencies resulting from weather conditions, traffic density, or user preferences. There is a need to integrate data from V2X and IoT systems. This would allow dynamic model adaptation to changing conditions and increase forecast accuracy, especially in the case of unpredictable events.
- Lack of standard evaluation metrics and the problem of interpretability. The diversity of metrics (R2, MAE, RMSE) and heterogeneous datasets makes it difficult to compare algorithm effectiveness objectively. Additionally, the complex nature of advanced DL models makes it challenging to interpret which factors have the greatest impact on energy consumption.
- A rapid increase in interest in data-driven methods in electromobility was observed between 2016 and 2025, particularly in the fields of machine learning, deep learning, and neural networks. This highlights the dynamic development and crucial importance of this field for the future of transport.
- It was noted that hybrid models (such as LSTM + MPC, ANN + DRL) offer the highest effectiveness in forecasting and optimizing energy consumption, which is essential for the efficiency and reliability of electric vehicles.
- The main barriers and challenges in the field were identified. These include the limited availability of real-world data, the problem of model transferability, the lack of standardized validation procedures, and data-privacy concerns. Recognizing these challenges is the first step toward solving them and making further progress.
- Future research should prioritize the following: (i) adaptive online models validated on real-world fleets to address data scarcity (see the gaps identified in Section 4); (ii) V2X integration using probabilistic hybrid controllers, with potential for measurable cost reductions in specific deployment studies (cf. [63,74]); (iii) edge AI and model compression for a low-power BMS, with a recommended research target of reducing SoC error to below 1% under extreme conditions (a proposed target for future validation); and (iv) the development of standardized benchmarks and shared metrics for cross-study comparisons.
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
ACC | Adaptive Cruise Control |
ANFIS | Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System |
ANN | Artificial Neural Network |
BEB | Battery Electric Bus |
BMS | Battery Management System |
BP | Backpropagation |
BTMS | Battery Thermal Management System |
CACC | Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control |
CNN | Convolutional Neural Network |
ConvLSTM | Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory |
DL | Deep Learning |
DNN | Deep Neural Network |
DRL | Deep Reinforcement Learning |
DTL | Deep Transfer Learning |
EMS | Energy Management System |
EV | Electric Vehicle |
FFNN | Feedforward Neural Network |
FIS | Fuzzy Inference System |
GBM | Gradient Boosting Machine |
GPR | Gaussian Process Regression |
GRU | Gated Recurrent Unit |
HIL | Hardware-in-the-Loop |
IoT | Internet of Things |
LA-RCNN | Location-Aware Recurrent Convolutional Neural Network |
LSTM | Long Short-Term Memory |
MAE | Mean Absolute Error |
MILP | Mixed-Integer Linear Programming |
ML | Machine Learning |
MPC | Model Predictive Control |
MSE | Mean Squared Error |
NARX | Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Inputs |
PV | Photovoltaic System |
QDP | Quadratic Dynamic Programming |
R2 | Coefficient of Determination |
RBF | Radial Basis Function |
RDR | Remaining Driving Range |
RF | Random Forest |
RFM | Random Forest Model |
RMSE | Root Mean Squared Error |
SMAPE | Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error |
SoC | State of Charge |
SOE | State of Energy |
SVR | Support Vector Regression |
TA-SSA-LSTM | Temporal Attention Sparrow Search Algorithm Long Short-Term Memory |
T-LSTM-Enc | Temporal Long Short-Term Memory Encoder |
V2G | Vehicle-to-Grid |
V2I | Vehicle-to-Infrastructure |
V2X | Vehicle-to-Everything |
WLTP | Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure |
XAI | Explainable Artificial Intelligence |
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Algorithm Type | Example Algorithm | Application | Model Accuracy (R2, MAE, RMSE) | Key Features | Reference Papers |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Classical Models | Linear Regression, Decision Trees | Forecasting EV energy consumption based on route data (speed, grade) | R2 = 0.96 [17], R2 = 0.981 [18] | Simple, fast, interpretable; limited in modeling nonlinearities | [16,17,18] |
Ensemble Models | Random Forest, XGBoost, GBM-BO | Estimating EV energy consumption and SoC, charging planning, grid management | R2 = 0.981 [18], 81.11% accuracy [19] | High accuracy, robustness to errors, requires large datasets | [16,19,20,21] |
Deep Learning | LSTM, GRU, CNN, ConvLSTM | Forecasting SoC, range, and energy consumption under dynamic conditions (driving style, topography) | R2 = 0.99 [22], MAE = 1.76%, RMSE = 1.99% [23], R2 = 0.91 [24] | High precision for time series, high computational cost | [22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37] |
Hybrid Models | GBM-BO, RFM-BO, BP + RBF, LSTM + NARX, MPC + DRL | Estimating SoC, optimizing energy consumption, energy management in BMS | R2 = 0.9647, MSE = 0.000112 [38], R2 = 0.944 [39], error < 1% [40] | Flexible, handles uncertainty, complex implementation | [20,21,37,38,40,41,42,43,44] |
Statistical Methods | Markov Processes | Managing battery energy and temperature, real-time optimization | Consumption reduction of 18% [45], 4% [46] | Dynamic adaptation, limited modeling of complex relationships | [45,46] |
Algorithm Type | Used Algorithm | Synthesis of Reported Performance (Observed Ranges)—Key Dataset | Trade-Offs |
---|---|---|---|
Classical Models | Linear Regression | Reported R2 ≈ 0.96–0.981 in reviewed studies [17,18]; datasets: route-/lab-based (WLTP = standardized laboratory cycle) | High interpretability and very fast inference, but limited accuracy for nonlinear or time-dependent dynamics compared to DL |
Ensemble Models | GBM-BO | Reported R2 ≈ 0.944 [39]; accuracy ≈ 81.1% [19]—values from separate fleet/telemetry studies | Robust to noise and competitive accuracy on tabular data; higher data requirements and longer training times vs. classical models |
Deep Learning | LSTM, ConvLSTM | Reported R2 ≈ 0.91–0.99 [22,24]; MAE as low as ~1.76% [23] on sequential/real-driving datasets | Superior sequence/spatio-temporal modeling; risk of overfitting and high computational demands; more difficult to deploy on embedded hardware |
Hybrid Models | GA3P-DLSTM, BP + RBF, LSTM + NARX | Reported R2 ≈ 0.944–0.965 [38,43]; error < 1% in some studies [40]—datasets include mixed real-world + synthetic/augmented conditions (e.g., weather) | Often best empirical performance, including lower error than pure DL; but complex implementation, tuning overhead, and reduced reproducibility |
Statistical Methods | Markov Processes | Reported energy consumption reduction: ~4–18% in Markov-based studies [45,46] | Efficient adaptation to probabilistic transitions, interpretable and lightweight; limited ability to capture nonlinear, long-memory dynamics |
Algorithm Type | Application | Effects | Key Features | Reference Papers |
---|---|---|---|---|
MPC + Deep Learning (LSTM, DRL, CNN) | Speed forecasting, energy management | Reduced costs and energy consumption | Precise forecasts, real-time optimization | [48,49,50,51,52] |
MPC + ANN/BPNN | Speed and thermal management optimization | Improved energy efficiency, reduced forecast error | Integration with V2X/V2I, adaptability | [53,54,55,56,57,58,59] |
MPC + BTMS | Adaptive cruise control, energy management | Energy savings, improved system collaboration | Dynamic adjustment to driving conditions | [53,54,55,60] |
Hybrid Models (Q-learning, QDP, AF-CFFRLS-AEKF, MOR-MPC) | Optimization under uncertainty | Reduced energy consumption in variable conditions | Modeling of random parameters | [50,61,62] |
Algorithm Type | Synthesis of Reported Performance (Observed Ranges)—Key Dataset | Trade-Offs |
---|---|---|
MPC + Deep Learning (LSTM, DRL, CNN) | Reported energy/cost savings ≈ 3–30% on dynamic simulations reported on V2X-based datasets [48,54,63]. | High precision under uncertainty (e.g., ~6% cost reduction vs. ANN) but substantial computational overhead and real-time deployment challenges [49,54]. |
MPC + ANN/BPNN | Reported error ≈ 0.1–0.3 kWh on hardware-in-the-loop and real driving cycles [56,57,69]. | Good real-time performance and low latency; less adaptability than DRL hybrids (some studies report larger savings for hybrids, ≈19–33% [53,69]). |
MPC + BTMS | Reported thermal-related savings ≈ 5–35% in BTMS simulation studies [61,68]. | Effective thermal/energy management; limited generalization across varying operational/ambient conditions [61]. |
Hybrid Models | Reported reductions ≈ 6–16% in stochastic/ACC scenarios (e.g., Stop&Go) [50,62]. | Handles stochasticity and adapts to traffic dynamics; higher algorithmic complexity, stability/validation, and implementation overhead compared to pure MPC [62]. |
Algorithm Type | Application | Effects | Key Features | Reference Papers |
---|---|---|---|---|
Deep learning | Forecasting charging demand | Reduced MAPE by 21.33%, and RMSE by 18.73%; R2 = 0.92 | Modeling spatio-temporal dependencies, integration with RES | [51,52,74,75,76] |
Regression models | Forecasting charging profiles and session duration | MAE 1.45 kWh, RMSE 6.68 kWh, R2 = 51.9% | Consideration of weather, traffic, and calendar data | [72,77,78,79,80,81,82,83,84] |
Stochastic models | Reserve planning, energy management with PV | Minimized costs, extended battery life | Quantification of uncertainty, two-level optimization | [74,85,86] |
Neural Networks | Modeling charging sessions, user behavior | Higher accuracy in predicting vehicle count and energy consumption | Capturing nonlinear patterns, scalability | [82,87,88,89,90,91,92,93,94] |
Reinforcement Learning | Scheduling charging in microgrids and V2G | Reduced energy costs, improved grid stability | Adaptability to variable conditions, real-time decisions | [95,96,97] |
Other ML | Microgrid optimization, charging monitoring | Reduced peak power, real-time fault detection | Two-level architectures, safety monitoring | [86,98,99,100,101,102,103] |
Algorithm Type | Representative Algorithms | Synthesis of Reported Performance (Observed Ranges)—Key Dataset | Trade-Offs |
---|---|---|---|
Deep learning (sequence/spatio-temporal) | LSTM, ConvLSTM, LA-RCNN | MAE often ≤2 kWh in some session/aggregate studies; relative improvements vs. baselines reported (for example, MAPE reduction of ≈21%, and RMSE reduction of ≈19% in [75]). Reported on hourly/station/city datasets [74,75,77]. | Best for spatio-temporal patterns; high data and compute needs, risk of overfitting, deployment challenges. |
Regression and ensembles | Random Forest, XGBoost, SVR, GPR | MAE ≈ 1.4 kWh—RMSE up to ≈6.7 kWh in session datasets [77,78]; robust on tabular/session data when enriched with features. | Fast, interpretable, easy to deploy; generally lower performance than DL for complex spatio-temporal tasks. |
Stochastic/probabilistic | Markov chains, ANFIS, stochastic MPC | Demonstrated improvements in cost/reserve planning in PV-integrated/home scenarios; uncertainty quantification reported in [85]. | Good uncertainty handling and reserve planning; requires calibration, probabilistic assumptions, and can be complex/slow. |
RL and hybrids/other ML | DRL, Q-learning; ensembles + metaheuristics | Reported cost reductions and adaptive scheduling benefits in microgrid/V2G/pilot studies [95,97,98]; qualitative reports of peak shaving. | Powerful for sequential decision making and optimization; high training cost, sim-to-real transfer issues, and potential over-specialization to infrastructure. |
Category | Name | 2016–2020 | 2021–2025 | All Years | Share [%] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 18 | 77 | 95 | 100.0 | |
Document type | Conference paper | 9 | 29 | 38 | 40.0 |
Article | 9 | 47 | 56 | 58.95 | |
Other | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.05 | |
Algorithms | Machine Learning | 3 | 37 | 40 | 42.11 |
Deep Learning | 4 | 29 | 33 | 34.74 | |
Neural Networks | 6 | 23 | 29 | 30.53 | |
Statistical algorithms | 8 | 7 | 15 | 15.79 | |
Energy and control | Battery | 13 | 37 | 50 | 52.63 |
Charging | 6 | 39 | 45 | 47.37 | |
Energy networks | 3 | 27 | 30 | 31.58 | |
Predictive control | 6 | 21 | 27 | 28.42 | |
Research methodology | Experiment | 15 | 68 | 83 | 87.37 |
Literature analysis | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9.47 | |
Case study | 2 | 12 | 14 | 14.74 | |
Conceptual | 15 | 41 | 56 | 58.95 |
Country | 2016–2020 | 2021–2025 | All Years | Share [%] |
---|---|---|---|---|
All countries | 18 | 77 | 95 | 100.0 |
China | 5 | 23 | 28 | 29.47 |
India | 0 | 17 | 17 | 17.89 |
United States | 3 | 8 | 11 | 11.58 |
Canada | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6.32 |
Germany | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5.26 |
South Korea | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5.26 |
Spain | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5.26 |
Saudi Arabia | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4.21 |
United Kingdom | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4.21 |
France | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3.16 |
Other | 6 | 10 | 16 | 16.84 |
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Szumska, E.M.; Pawlik, Ł.; Frej, D.; Wilk-Jakubowski, J.Ł. Machine Learning Applications in Energy Consumption Forecasting and Management for Electric Vehicles: A Systematic Review. Energies 2025, 18, 5420. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18205420
Szumska EM, Pawlik Ł, Frej D, Wilk-Jakubowski JŁ. Machine Learning Applications in Energy Consumption Forecasting and Management for Electric Vehicles: A Systematic Review. Energies. 2025; 18(20):5420. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18205420
Chicago/Turabian StyleSzumska, Emilia M., Łukasz Pawlik, Damian Frej, and Jacek Łukasz Wilk-Jakubowski. 2025. "Machine Learning Applications in Energy Consumption Forecasting and Management for Electric Vehicles: A Systematic Review" Energies 18, no. 20: 5420. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18205420
APA StyleSzumska, E. M., Pawlik, Ł., Frej, D., & Wilk-Jakubowski, J. Ł. (2025). Machine Learning Applications in Energy Consumption Forecasting and Management for Electric Vehicles: A Systematic Review. Energies, 18(20), 5420. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18205420