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The renewable energy sector is becoming key to the energy transformation processes of modern economies. The energy policy of one of the European countries specifies that by 2030, about 7% of energy production will come from wind sources. Because wind turbines are becoming more and more efficient, innovative projects are being created to expand their potential by integrating them with the energy systems of existing residential buildings. The analysis of the profitability of such investments may be important for the implementation of such an ambitious plan. In particular, this argument may be crucial for the growth of the potential and development prospects of distributed energy systems based on renewable energy sources. The article outlines the challenges related to forecasting generation from this energy source. The article aims to present the methodology, energy potential and forecasting results of energy generation from wind sources for two selected locations in one of the European Union countries, Poland. The NPV-Net Present Value and IRR-Internal Rate of Return methods were used for the study. These methods allowed the authors to calculate the market value of the investment with the assumed boundary criteria and determine the economic efficiency of the investment. The research was carried out in the period December 2023–November 2024 on test wind installations in households. In addition, the article indicates the challenges related to the variability of atmospheric factors and the self-consumption of the wind turbine, which is often difficult to predict due to the lack of turbine efficiency analysis. The presented models showed that the project in their implementation is fully economically justified and will allow investors to make a rational investment decision. The obtained results only take into account the basic measurement data used in the analysis, including government subsidies. The proposed economic analysis uses average values of meteorological parameters, which do not fully reflect the variability of resources. Each investment should be individually analyzed by a qualified agent, taking into account detailed measurement data for the given investment site. This article presents only a preliminary study of the investment’s profitability. These models can be effectively used in other countries and can also be a starting point for discussions on the direction of the development of energy systems based on renewable energy sources.
When conducting a comparative analysis of the energy efficiency of wind installations in the Pomeranian Voivodeship and the Kraków-Balice region (Lesser Poland Voivodeship), identical assumptions were made regarding the technical parameters of the installations and the assessment methodology. The variables are only differences in location, which allows for a precise assessment of the impact of geographical and climatic conditions on the results of electricity production. Based on meteorological data obtained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), significant differences in the energy potential of both regions were noted. There are relatively low and average wind speeds in Poland, in addition, they are varied spatially and temporarily, which affects the overall assessment of wind resources. However, in some regions of the country, especially in the north and on the coast, the wind speeds are high enough, and their daily and annual course can be stable. Such conditions give the possibility of effective use of small wind turbines. Using the digital AMEW-PL atlas, you can download a detailed data package was downloaded in the form of a medium (annual, monthly, daily, hour) report and selected time ranks, taking into account both meteorological and technical characteristics (WPD-theoretical wind energy potential, WEP-generated turbine power), in daily, monthly, season and annual terms. These data will allow you to manage the work of an existing installation, e.g., to increase your consumption. The work allows uses data from the analysis of time ranks of 10 min with a wind speed at an altitude of 10 m above the ground level from the Inca-PL2 model for any research period [67]. The InCA-PL2 model is a system of ultra-short (newcasting) forecasts based on the modified version of the Inca model (Integrated Nowcasting Through Comprehensive Analysis) of the Austrian meteorological service. The model adapts the Mesoscal forecasts of individual meteorological parameters from the AROME 2.0KM model, with telemetry data from the IMGW-PIB telemetry system. Forecasts and analyses are developed for several fields: temperature at the ground level and 2 m, dew point temperature, relative humidity, snow line, freezing levels, icing, speed and direction of wind at 10 m above sea level. The model in operational mode works with a 10-min time step, while the forecasts are developed and updated with an hour time, and their overtaking time is up to 8 h. The spatial resolution of all Inca-PL2 products is 1 km. For comparative purposes, you can also use data from the ERA5-LAND ECMWF Reanalysis V5 for the research period [67]. The Pomeranian Voivodeship, characterized by higher average wind speeds and greater stability of atmospheric conditions, shows much higher efficiency of electricity production compared to the Kraków-Balice region, where wind resources are limited. IMWM data indicate that the annual electricity production in the Pomeranian Voivodeship may be even higher 30–50% compared to the Lesser Poland Voivodeship. These differences result from more favorable wind conditions in coastal areas, where wind speeds are higher and more evenly distributed throughout the year. However, in the Kraków-Balice region, frequent changes in wind speed and its lower average values significantly limit the production potential of the installation. The results of the analysis emphasize the key importance of location when designing wind energy investments. Higher production potential in the Pomeranian Voivodeship translates into a faster return on investment costs and higher profitability of the installation compared to the Lesser Poland region. Therefore, the location of the wind installation should be one of the priority factors taken into account when planning the development of renewable energy sources in Poland. Figure 3 shows detailed maps of investment locations, illustrating differences in geographic location and availability of wind resources. Data analysis from wind installation indicates significant differences in energy efficiency between these regions.
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The authors state that the scientific conclusions are unaffected. This correction was approved by the Academic Editor. The original publication has also been updated.