Decoupling Economy Growth and Emissions: Energy Transition Pathways Under the European Agenda for Climate Action

Abstract

As the European Union’s energy systems are transforming towards achieving climate goals, this article examines the energy balances of EU member states. This analysis covers, among other things, the dynamics of energy dependence and strategies for decoupling economic growth from the level of emissions in the European Union (EU), with particular emphasis on Poland, which is strongly influenced by its historical reliance on coal in the energy balance. Using panel data from 1990 to 2022, the article investigates differences in energy dependence between individual countries, shaped by economic structures and national energy policies. The study results confirm significant heterogeneity between member states and emphasize that the stability and direction of decoupling economic growth from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are strongly dependent on the composition of the energy mix and vulnerability to external conditions. Based on scenario analysis, potential paths for Poland’s energy transition are assessed. We demonstrate that a high share of renewable energy sources (RES) significantly reduces CO₂ emissions, provided it is accompanied by infrastructure modernization and the development of energy storage. Furthermore, integrating nuclear energy as a stabilizing element of the energy mix offers an additional path to deep decarbonization while ensuring supply reliability. Finally, we demonstrate that improving energy efficiency and demand management can effectively increase energy security and reduce emissions, even in a scenario with a stable coal share. The study addresses a research gap by integrating decoupling analysis with scenario-based stochastic modeling for Poland, a country for which few comprehensive transition assessments exist. The results provide practical guidance for developing resilient, low-emission energy policies in Poland and the EU. Results are reported for 2025–2050 (with 2040 as an interim milestone).

1. Introduction

To meet environmental objectives, the European Union has set out a series of ambitious requirements called the European Green Deal [1]. These include reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, primarily through the decarbonization of energy sources and the growing adoption of electric vehicles and alternative fuels in transport. Another key target is to expand the share of renewable energy in total consumption, with particular emphasis on wind, solar, and hybrid technologies. Equally important is progress in energy efficiency, achieved through the modernization of buildings, transport, and industry, as well as the promotion of technological innovation [2]. Implementing these measures requires innovative technological solutions, long-term investment, and effective monitoring systems.

The EU aspires to become a global leader in the transition toward a low-emission economy. Empirical data show that between 1990 and 2017, greenhouse gas emissions in the EU decreased by 22%, while GDP rose by 58% [3,4,5]. However, these results must be interpreted with caution, as reductions in emissions may also reflect declining domestic industrial activity accompanied by higher imports of finished goods from outside the EU. Current emission accounting does not fully capture the embedded emissions of imported products, which complicates the assessment of real progress [6,7]. This issue raises broader questions about the international competitiveness of mining and energy-intensive industries subject to emission limits compared to regions without such restrictions and their evolving role in global value chains [8]. Moreover, coal and uranium remain important factors influencing GDP fluctuations in several European countries [9].

Figure 1 represents the concept of achieving climate neutrality, which means achieving net zero emissions by the European Union countries. Net zero emissions mean the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in a given EU system that remain after taking into account actions to reduce and offset them. Net zero means that emissions generated by human activity are balanced by actions that absorb or reduce emissions in the same period. Therefore, the total emissions at the EU system level should be zero after taking into account offsetting actions. The issue of estimating net zero emissions is a multidimensional problem. Climate neutrality of economies refers to a state of economic activity in which the net greenhouse gas emissions balance is zero—that is, the amount of emissions generated by economic activity is balanced by their reduction or removal (e.g., by forests, CCS technologies, or land use changes) [10]. The calculation model can be described in the following three stages. In the first stage, it is necessary to estimate or collect data on total greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂, methane, nitrogen oxides, etc.) from different sources and sectors. In the second stage, the effects of the actions reducing emissions that have been implemented are calculated, such as energy savings, reduced consumption of fossil fuels, energy sources (RES): photovoltaic, wind, geothermal installations, electrification of transport: switching to electric vehicles, public transport, changes in agriculture and forestry: reduced methane emissions from animal husbandry, sustainable forestry, and introduction of soil regeneration practices. The third stage of the calculation is to take into account compensation actions (offsets). These are all actions that absorb CO₂ or neutralize emissions, such as afforestation or forest renewal (planting new trees that absorb carbon dioxide); retaining carbon in the soil through regenerative agriculture, which improves the soil’s ability to absorb CO₂; or the implementation of CCS (Carbon Capture Storage) [11,12] installations enabling the capture of carbon dioxide and its storage underground. After taking into account the above three stages, the net level of emissions is calculated. If reductions and offsets balance total emissions, EU countries can achieve net zero and be considered climate-neutral economies. This study addresses key challenges for achieving climate neutrality, focusing on fossil fuel consumption within the current energy systems of EU member states. Energy balances remain a complex issue [13], as each country exhibits a distinct energy mix that directly determines its level of greenhouse gas emissions.

Over the past two decades, the European energy transition has been primarily characterized by the gradual reduction in fossil fuel use and the expansion of renewable sources. Previous research has largely concentrated on analyzing changes in the energy balances, decreasing greenhouse gas emissions, and tracking the growing role of renewable energy in the framework of the green transformation. However, the long-term and scenario-based relationship between the pace of energy transition and the decoupling of economic growth from emissions—defined as the separation of GDP growth from GHG emission growth—remains insufficiently investigated. A major gap arises from the absence of comprehensive multi-criteria assessments that integrate alternative energy balance pathways with uncertainties linked to international trade and industrial relocation. As a result, current knowledge does not yet offer robust forecasting tools to identify transition trajectories that can realistically achieve climate neutrality while preserving the competitiveness of EU economies.

The present study seeks to address this gap by developing and evaluating scenarios for Poland’s energy balance up to 2050, in alignment with the objectives of the climate action in the EU. Particular attention was paid to the dynamics of decoupling economic issues and emissions as one of the key tools leading to green goals. The ultimate goal is to identify transformation pathways that combine climate neutrality with economic competitiveness while limiting the risk of carbon leakage outside the EU.

Existing analyses of the European Union’s energy transition are primarily conducted using official forecasting tools developed by EU institutions, such as PRIMES, JRC-EU-TIMES, or EUCALC [15]. These models provide reference scenarios for assessing climate policies and decarbonization pathways. However, their application to the Polish case faces limitations due to the country’s unique energy mix, still largely dependent on hard coal and lignite, and the high sensitivity of its economy to external shocks [16]. The literature still lacks studies that explicitly integrate the analysis of economy–emissions decoupling with scenario-based assessments of Poland’s energy transition [17,18]. This paper addresses this gap by applying a multi-stage approach that combines a structural perspective (import dependency, energy mix) with a dynamic perspective (decoupling indicators), thereby enabling the development of realistic transition scenarios for Poland in the context of the EU’s climate goals.

Official EU energy models, such as PRIMES or JRC-EU-TIMES, provide robust and validated scenarios at the European scale, but they are not fully adequate for capturing the structural and economic particularities of individual member states. Their assumptions are based on aggregated EU-wide parameters, which may obscure the distinct challenges of coal-dependent economies like Poland. For instance, the long construction time of new low-emission capacities, delays in grid modernization, and social resistance to large-scale energy projects are often underestimated in European projections [19]. This study contributes new insights by explicitly addressing these country-specific constraints through a multi-stage framework that integrates both structural factors (energy mix, import dependency) and dynamic indicators (decoupling), offering a complementary perspective to EU-level modeling tools [20].

In summary, the literature review points to three main strands: (i) EU climate policy and the theory of decoupling, (ii) energy security and import dependency, and (iii) national transition challenges, with a particular focus on coal-based economies such as Poland. Few studies explicitly integrate these three dimensions within a unified framework, which constitutes the research gap addressed in this paper.

Against this background, the main research question was formulated as follows: How can the integration of structural analysis, decoupling dynamics, and stochastic scenario modeling provide insights into Poland’s energy transition pathways? To operationalize this research question, five hypotheses were defined:

Hypothesis 1: 

There is significant variation in the degree of energy dependence among EU Member States in the 1990–2022 period, resulting from differing economic structures and energy policies.

Hypothesis 2: 

The stability and direction of the process of decoupling economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions in the EU member states depend to a significant extent on the structure of the energy mix and the sensitivity of the economy to external shocks.

Hypothesis 3: 

A scenario of high penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) in Poland will enable a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions while promoting energy system stability through infrastructure modernization and the development of energy storage.

Hypothesis 4: 

Integrating nuclear power as a stabilizing component of Poland’s energy mix will enable significant decarbonization while maintaining the reliability of energy supply.

Hypothesis 5: 

A scenario focused on improving energy efficiency and reducing energy demand will be an effective way to reduce emissions and improve Poland’s energy security, even if a significant share of coal in the energy mix is maintained.

2. Literature Review

The energy industry plays a key role in the development of economic prosperity, providing a foundation for the development of many other sectors of the economy [21,22]. It is also the sector that is most responsible for the level of greenhouse gas emissions, which depends primarily on the type of energy mixes of countries. Controlling and reducing the level of emissions from the energy sector is therefore crucial to achieving the climate goals set by the EU. Energy plays a key role in the transition of EU economies to climate neutrality, as it is currently responsible for more than 75% of the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions. In all analyzed options, the energy system will move towards net zero GHG emissions. It is based on a secure and sustainable energy supply based on a market-based and pan-European approach. The future energy system will integrate electricity, gas, heating/cooling, and mobility systems and markets, and smart grids will put the well-being of citizens at the center [23].

The transformation also requires further development of technological innovation in the energy, building, transportation, industrial, and agricultural sectors. It can be accelerated by breakthroughs in digitization, information and communications, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology. It is also necessary to develop new systems and processes with cooperation between sectors. A good example of this systems-oriented approach is the closed-loop economy, which will use a wide range of advanced solutions and create new business models. It will also require cooperation at various levels between regions and member states to maximize synergies by pooling resources and knowledge. Manufacturing in Europe today is still competitive, but it is also under pressure from economies both developed and emerging. Europe, however, remains at the forefront when it comes to new high-value patents for low-carbon energy technologies, is seen as a world leader in these sectors, and needs to translate its scientific edge into commercial success [24].

The transformation of energy systems in the European Union (EU) countries has been a subject of extensive research, especially in light of the EU’s Green Deal (EC) and sustainability targets. Scholars have analyzed various strategies employed by member states to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources (RES), improve energy efficiency, and secure energy independence. The European Green Deal, as a primary framework guiding energy transformation, has been discussed in various studies (GD). Some studies indicate the possibility of switching mostly to renewable sources in European Union countries by implementing a smart energy strategy, the aim of which will be to connect the electricity sector with an energy storage system [25]. Researchers emphasize the EU’s commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions [26,27], increasing RES integration [28,29], and promoting a circular economy [30,31]. Many studies [32,33] stress the importance of policy alignment, technological innovation, and financial mechanisms (such as EU funds) in facilitating this transition. A significant body of literature focuses on the integration of RES in EU energy systems. The transition to solar, wind, and hydropower has been discussed extensively, with studies showing that many EU countries have made significant progress in increasing the share of renewables [34,35]. Researchers also explore the challenges of grid integration, storage technologies, and balancing energy supply and demand [36].

The role of political support and financial incentives is a recurrent theme, as they enable the scaling up of renewable energy infrastructure [37]. Energy efficiency strategies have also been extensively researched, particularly in relation to the EU’s 2020 Energy Efficiency Directive. Studies by JRC (Joint Research Centre) and others demonstrate that improving energy efficiency in the industrial, transport, and residential sectors is a cost-effective means of reducing emissions and energy consumption [38]. The literature highlights the importance of modernization in energy infrastructure, consumer behavior, and energy-saving technologies as central to achieving energy efficiency goals. The issue of energy security and reducing dependence on fossil fuel imports is a major theme in the literature.

According to studies [39], energy diversification, storage capacity, and intra-EU energy market integration are key to ensuring energy security. The literature on energy balance transformation in EU countries highlights the complex and multifaceted nature of the energy transition. Key strategies include the integration of renewables, improving energy efficiency, investing in nuclear energy where feasible, and ensuring energy security through diversification. The role of political support, EU financial mechanisms, and technological innovations is critical in facilitating these transformations. Each country’s path is shaped by unique resources, challenges, and national policy frameworks. The EU has developed different scenarios for the energy transition towards climate neutrality by 2050. These scenarios take into account different paths of technological development, policies, and structural changes in the economy.

The accelerated sustainable growth scenario assumes that the European Union countries will be able to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 by rapidly implementing low-emission technologies and renewable energy sources. The key assumptions are the rapid development of renewable energy (wind, solar, biomass), large investments in energy efficiency, and the transition to zero-emission transport. This requires strong climate and regulatory policies, financial support, and social involvement. Another option is called the sustainable development scenario, which assumes a gradual transformation of the economy towards climate neutrality by 2050.

This solution takes into account a differentiated approach to the implementation of zero-emission technologies depending on the sector and country, focuses on sustainable economic and social development, minimizes the costs of the transition, and ensures equal development of all EU regions. The next plan assumes innovative and technological development. In this solution, technological innovation plays a particularly important role as a key factor accelerating the energy transformation. It introduces advanced technologies such as energy storage, next-generation nuclear energy, and advanced energy networks (smart grids). It includes intensive investments in research, technology development, and international cooperation. The fourth option is the economic development and moderate growth scenario, which assumes gradual emission reduction and economic transformation, but in a more moderate way than the other scenarios. It focuses on balancing climate goals with economic development goals and maintaining the competitiveness of the EU economy. It requires a stable legal and economic framework, ensuring predictability of investments. These scenarios are the basis for the strategic planning of the European Union in the context of energy transformation and achieving climate neutrality by 2050.

While extensive research exists on the European Union’s overall energy transition strategies, much less attention has been devoted to country-specific pathways where coal still dominates the energy mix. In particular, Poland represents a unique case within the EU due to its strong dependence on hard coal and lignite, combined with relatively lower diversification of the energy system. Previous studies often emphasize EU-wide decarbonization strategies [19], but comparative scenario-based assessments that explicitly integrate the concept of economy–emissions decoupling for Poland remain scarce [20]. This paper addresses this research gap by focusing on Poland as a case study within the broader European context, thereby providing insights that complement existing EU-level models with a country-specific perspective.

In the context of scientific research on the economic transformation of EU countries, this article analyzes the decoupling process, which decouples economic growth from rising emissions. This phenomenon is a key factor in achieving environmental goals in sustainable development policy. EU member states emphasize the need to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 while simultaneously maintaining economic competitiveness and increasing employment. The research undertaken in this paper to identify the decoupling process at the national level will allow for a scientific assessment of whether climate policies and technological innovations effectively enable economic development without a proportional increase in CO₂ emissions in EU countries. It should be emphasized that in the traditional model of economic growth, this has been invariably correlated with higher energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Understanding and scientifically explaining the mechanisms of decoupling enables the formulation of strategies that allow for economic development while reducing the carbon footprint.

Analysis of data on decoupling allows for the assessment of the effectiveness of energy regulations, carbon taxes, investments in renewable energy sources, and technological innovations. Research on the level of decoupling in the EU allows us to assess the extent to which member states are achieving relative of GDP growth from emissions. In the literature, studies examining decoupling have indicated varying levels of decoupling across EU member states. Some countries have demonstrated a stronger decoupling between economic growth and environmental impacts, while others have struggled to achieve this goal [40]. A study published in 2025 shows that Western European countries are more effective at decoupling economic growth from energy consumption than Eastern European countries [41]. Similarly, paper [42] analyzes the stability of the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in the European Union, pointing out differences between Western and Eastern European countries. Based on decoupling analyses, further modeling of future economic development scenarios is possible. The decoupling process requires combining economics, ecology, energy science, and public policy, which enriches research methodology and allows for the formulation of comprehensive recommendations, as presented in this study.

3. Material and Methods

This article aims to achieve the research goal of developing potential energy transition scenarios using Poland as an example, a country that represents the most challenging case study in the context of achieving the European Green Deal objectives [43]. The main criterion is the country’s energy mix, where approximately 80% of electricity is produced from solid sources such as hard coal and lignite. This situation poses the greatest challenge to transforming the energy balance due to environmental requirements. To achieve this goal, the research process was conducted in three complementary stages.

The novelty of this study lies in combining structural and dynamic perspectives within a unified framework tailored to the Polish case. Unlike existing large-scale models such as PRIMES, JRC-EU-TIMES, or EUCALC, which primarily provide aggregated EU-wide projections, our approach explicitly integrates: (I) cross-country heterogeneity of energy mixes and import dependency, (II) economy–emissions decoupling indicators as a diagnostic and evaluative tool, and (III) scenario analysis supported by multi-criteria assessment (MCA) combined with Monte Carlo simulations to account for uncertainty and interactions between political, economic, technological, social, and geopolitical factors. This combination allows for a transparent and flexible evaluation of transition pathways that complements EU-level projections by providing country-specific insights for Poland.

To provide a clear overview of the applied methodology, the research process was structured into three complementary stages. Figure 2 presents the schematic design of the study, linking structural analysis of the EU energy mix and import dependency (Stage I), evaluation of economy–emissions decoupling dynamics (Stage II), and stochastic scenario modeling for Poland based on MCA combined with Monte Carlo simulations (Stage III).

Stage I—Energy market structure → energy security and stability of energy supply. In the first stage, research was undertaken to demonstrate significant differences in the energy mix across EU countries, which is one of the key determinants of energy transition. It was demonstrated that the energy balance of EU member states directly impacts the ability to maintain stable energy supplies, resilience to fuel price fluctuations, and the level of dependence on raw material imports. In the first stage, the degree of diversification among EU member states was evaluated using the energy dependency rate as defined by Eurostat. This indicator measures the extent to which a country’s energy supply relies on imports, providing a quantitative basis for assessing energy security and independence. Statistical analysis of cross-country variability was conducted for the period 1990–2022, employing descriptive measures and comparative ranking methods.

Stage II—Decoupling potential → opportunities for economic growth in line with climate goals. The second stage focuses on the assessment of the calculated ratio of the relative change in CO₂ emissions to the relative change in GDP. This metric enables the identification of whether economic growth has been achieved alongside reduced environmental pressure, thereby serving as a proxy for the success of climate policies. Comparative analysis across EU countries was performed to detect patterns of absolute, relative, or absent decoupling. The time frame of the analysis covers the period 2016–2023, consistent with the availability of harmonized Eurostat data.

$$I_t={\displaystyle \frac{\Delta E_t}{\Delta {GDP}_t}}$$

(1)

E_t—total Greenhouse gases (CO₂, N₂O in CO₂ equivalent, CH₄ in CO₂ equivalent, HFC in CO₂ equivalent, PFC in CO₂ equivalent, SF6 in CO₂ equivalent, NF₃) [CO₂ equivalent].

GDP—Gross domestic product at market prices [mln euro].

I_t < 0 absolute decrease in emissions with GDP growth (absolute decoupling).

I_t = 0 a small relationship between changes.

I_t > 0 large positive values → emissions increase much more than GDP (unfavorable).

Stage III—Simulation of Development Scenarios for the Polish Energy Market. By combining the two determinants presented in the first stage—the structure of energy markets—and the second stage—the potential for decoupling—the potential for economic growth in line with climate goals, it was possible to present stage 3, which involves constructing development scenarios for EU countries that take into account both economic and environmental aspects and realistically model the impact of climate policy and energy transition. Three scenarios were developed:

• High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario—assuming accelerated RES integration, infrastructure modernization, and advanced storage technologies.
• Nuclear Integration Scenario—incorporating large-scale nuclear power deployment as a stabilizing component of the energy mix.
• Efficiency-driven Scenario—prioritizing energy demand reduction through efficiency improvements, grid modernization, and consumer-side measures.

The scenarios were constructed using a qualitative–quantitative hybrid approach, combining trend extrapolation with policy-driven assumptions derived from official EU and national energy strategies. In order to estimate the probability of realization of the developed energy transformation scenarios, the basics of probability theory and multi-criteria analysis were used. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) is a method of assessing different scenarios based on several criteria. In the context of assessing the probability of realization of energy transformation scenarios, the following steps were used:

• Identification of criteria: Key factors influencing the realization of scenarios were selected, such as political support, economic conditions, technological possibilities, social support and geopolitical risks.
• Assigning weights: Each criterion was assigned a weight reflecting its importance in the decision-making process. The sum of the weights is 100%, which means full consideration of all key factors. The initial weights were established based on existing literature and strategic documents, and then validated through sensitivity analysis. This dual approach ensured that the weights were both theoretically grounded and empirically robust in scenario simulations.
• Assessment of individual scenarios: Each scenario was assessed in terms of individual criteria on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 means very low probability and close to 1 very high.
• Calculation of weighted probability: The probability of realization of each scenario was calculated as a weighted sum of the scores for individual criteria.

The mathematical model used to calculate the probability is based on the weighted sum of the ratings of the individual criteria. Additionally, parameters such as the dependencies between the criteria and the influence of external factors were introduced. The probability of the scenario realization can be determined from the relationship:

$$P_r={\sum }_{i=1}^n{C}_i{W}_i+{\sum }_{i=1}^n{\sum }_{j=i+1}^n{I}_{ij}{C}_i{C}_j$$

(2)

where

C_i—score for i-th criterion;

W_i—weight of i-th criterion

I_ij—interaction coefficient between criteria i and j

n—number of criteria

4. Results

Stage I

The first stage of the research consisted of diagnosing the current state of the energy system of the European Union countries. The volume of fuel consumption in energy systems and their changes in recent decades and the index of dependence on imports of mineral resources were analyzed. On this basis, the main challenges in the European Union countries for the transformation of energy systems towards meeting the requirements of the Green Deal were indicated. Statistical data for the first stage came from Eurostat. At the initial stage of the analysis, the member states with the highest levels of electricity production were identified. The nine countries presented in

Table 1. Index 2022/2013 of energy intensity and Carbon dioxide [eurostat].

EU Countries	2023	%	SUM
European Union—27 countries (from 2020)	236,333.46	100.00%
France	45,111.83	19.09%
Germany	44,013.86	18.62%
Spain	24,581.32	10.40%
Italy	22,761.52	9.63%
Poland	14,390.53	6.09%
Sweden	14,281.43	6.04%
Netherlands	10,432.55	4.41%
Belgium	7194.23	3.04%
Finland	7011.25	2.97%	80.30%
Czechia	6621.17	2.80%
Austria	6402.36	2.71%
Romania	4985.61	2.11%
Greece	4292.06	1.82%
Portugal	4216.97	1.78%
Bulgaria	3461.35	1.46%
Hungary	3056.39	1.29%
Denmark	2900.51	1.23%
Ireland	2738.86	1.16%
Slovakia	2571.20	1.09%
Croatia	1508.28	0.64%
Slovenia	1365.32	0.58%
Latvia	549.23	0.23%
Lithuania	514.07	0.22%
Estonia	493.99	0.21%
Cyprus	458.219	0.19%
Luxembourg	217.71	0.09%
Malta	201.61	0.09%

and Figure 3 account for more than 80% of total electricity generation in the EU.

The results in Table 1 show significant heterogeneity among EU Member States over the period 2016–2023. Several countries, including Belgium, Spain, France, Germany, and Poland, frequently exhibited negative index values, indicating instances of absolute decoupling where GDP growth was accompanied by emission reductions. By contrast, Denmark, Estonia, and Finland displayed high volatility with alternating years of absolute decoupling and strong positive coupling, reflecting the sensitivity of energy-intensive industries and reliance on energy trade. Sweden recorded the most extreme fluctuations, largely due to structural shocks such as wildfires in 2018, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the subsequent European energy crisis in 2021–2022. Eastern European countries such as Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovakia also demonstrated instability, with temporary decoupling in some years but sharp reversals in others, often linked to structural dependence on fossil fuels and limited diversification of the energy mix. Southern European economies (Italy, Greece, Portugal) experienced mixed patterns, with progress in energy efficiency and renewables offset at times by slower GDP growth or sectoral shocks. Overall, the index shows that while many EU countries are moving towards decoupling, the process remains uneven and highly sensitive to short-term economic and geopolitical disruptions. It should be noted that the decoupling index is sensitive to short-term shocks and statistical volatility, which may produce extreme values in individual years. For this reason, the results are best interpreted as medium-term trends rather than precise annual measures. The results of H2 should be interpreted with caution, as the decoupling index is highly sensitive to short-term fluctuations and extraordinary events (e.g., wildfires in Sweden in 2018, the COVID-19 recession in 2020). This limitation, however, does not undermine the broader finding that significant heterogeneity exists across member states.

The electricity production capacity in the European Union countries decreased from 246,039.98 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent in 2014 to 236,333.46 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent in 2023. France has the largest share in total energy production in the EU and accounts for 19.09%, followed by the following countries with the corresponding share, i.e., Germany 18.62%; Spain 10.4%; Italy 9.63%; Sweden 6.04%; Poland 6.09%; Netherlands 4.41%; Belgium 3.04%; and Finland 2.97% (Figure 3). The transformation of the EU’s energy sector should involve a systematic shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy sources, improved energy efficiency, the development of low-emission infrastructure, and the integration of energy markets, all in order to simultaneously reduce emissions, strengthen energy security, and support economic competitiveness. Examining the energy security of EU countries based on the energy fuel import dependency index revealed significant variation across countries, with concurrent increases in energy dependency levels. Analyses of changes from 2014 to 2023 in this area are presented in Figure 4 and Figure 5. High energy independence means lower risks related to disruptions in energy supplies from outside, which is an important element in building resilient and stable energy systems.

For consistency, Stage I relies on Eurostat data up to 2022, which represent the last year with fully harmonized statistics across member states. The year 2023, while partially available, was not used for comparative purposes because of exceptional disruptions in European energy markets caused by geopolitical shocks. The novelty of this stage lies not in presenting absolute values, which are well known, but in systematically linking long-term structural trends in energy mix composition with the dynamics of import dependency across 1990–2022. This integrated perspective highlights heterogeneity in member states’ exposure to external supply risks, providing an empirical foundation for the subsequent decoupling and scenario analyses.

Based on the data presented in Figure 4, Figure 5 and Figure 6, the main trends in the EU can be identified. The energy dependency rate for the EU as a whole increased from 54.4% in 2014 to 58.3% in 2023, representing a rise of approximately 7.1% (index 1.07). This result indicates the EU’s continued vulnerability to energy imports, despite the development of renewable energy sources and actions under the European Green Deal. Among the nine largest energy producers in the EU, countries with relatively stable or decreasing dependency—France (47.1% → 45.7%, index 0.97), Spain (73.4% → 69.0%, index 0.94), Italy (75.2% → 74.6%, index 0.99), and Belgium (77.5% → 73.6%, index 0.95)—maintained similar or slightly reduced levels of dependency. Finland (50.3% → 29.7%, index 0.59) significantly improved its situation, reducing its dependency by over 40%. Sweden also decreased its index (45.6% → 37.0%, index 0.81), reflecting steady renewable deployment and hydropower use. Countries with increasing energy dependence include Germany, from 61.8% in 2014 to 66.4% in 2023 (index 1.07), due to the nuclear phase-out and rising fossil fuel imports during the transition; Poland, from 29.4% in 2014 to 48.0% in 2023 (index 1.63), reflecting growing vulnerability despite its coal-based mix; and the Netherlands, from 30.9% in 2014 to 70.4% in 2023 (index 2.28), the largest increase among the analyzed countries, driven by the decline in domestic gas production and rising fossil fuel imports.

As illustrated in Figure 7, the import dependency structure of EU Member States has undergone significant changes between 1990 and 2022. The general trend is a growing reliance on natural gas imports and a gradual reduction in oil dependency, while coal and nuclear resources remain relatively stable in terms of external supply risks. This shift highlights a structural vulnerability of the EU to disruptions in gas markets, particularly in light of recent geopolitical tensions. For Poland, the index increased markedly, reflecting a growing exposure to external energy sources despite its traditionally coal-based system. The persistence of high dependency in several large economies (e.g., Germany, Italy) underscores the uneven progress in energy diversification across the EU, which is a critical determinant of resilience to future supply shocks.

As shown in Figure 8 and Figure 9 Poland’s electricity system is expected to undergo a substantial structural transformation across the analyzed scenarios. Coal, which currently dominates, declines steadily in all variants, though the pace differs depending on the assumed policy and technological developments. In parallel, renewables expand rapidly, with wind and solar emerging as the key pillars of the new system. The nuclear option, while visible in selected scenarios, reflects significant uncertainty regarding investment timelines and political acceptance. The overall trend indicates a progressive diversification of the Polish power mix, but also highlights risks of delayed capacity expansion that may increase reliance on imports in the short to medium term.

The data in Figure 10 show significant structural changes in energy production between 1990 and 2022. Electricity generation from hard coal decreased from 447.09 TWh in 1990 to 205.69 TWh in 2022, and from lignite from 345.49 TWh to 241.57 TWh. Oil and petroleum products declined from 189.52 TWh to 55.74 TWh. By contrast, natural gas increased substantially from 187.56 TWh in 1990 to 553.67 TWh in 2022. Nuclear energy remained stable (729.11 TWh in 1990 and 731.70 TWh in 2022). Renewable energy demonstrated the highest dynamics, growing from 301.90 TWh in 1990 to 1079.78 TWh in 2022.

Figure 10 shows the clear divergence between Poland and the EU average in terms of energy mix. While the EU demonstrates a more diversified structure with a substantial share of renewables and nuclear power, Poland remains heavily dependent on coal. Hard coal and lignite together account for more than two-thirds of Poland’s generation, compared to less than one-quarter in the EU average. This structural imbalance highlights Poland’s greater vulnerability to carbon pricing and climate policy stringency, while at the same time underlining the scale of the challenge in aligning the Polish system with EU decarbonization targets.

Research thesis 1: There is significant variation in the degree of energy dependence among EU member states in the 1990–2022 period, resulting from differing economic structures and energy policies.

Analysis of data on electricity production (Figure 10) and the import dependency index in European Union countries from 2014 to 2023 (Figure 3, Figure 4 and Figure 5) confirms the thesis that the degree of energy dependency among EU Member States varies and results from different economic structures and energy policies. This variation in share indicates different investment strategies and energy system structures in individual countries.

Stage II

The decoupling index serves both analytical and interpretive functions in assessing energy transition. These functions are crucial both in scientific research and in shaping public policy strategies. This article analyzes the decoupling index as a diagnostic tool for interpreting the effectiveness of decarbonization strategy implementation in European Union countries. By determining the degree of correlation between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions expressed in carbon dioxide equivalent, it is possible to identify trends in EU countries and assess whether they are experiencing a decoupling of economic growth from carbon intensity, which should be interpreted as a highly desirable phenomenon for achieving long-term sustainable development and, consequently, a trajectory toward climate neutrality. The decoupling index allows us to identify whether energy transition is effectively decoupling economic dynamics from environmental pressures. Another function of decoupling analysis is evaluative, aimed at assessing the progress of European economies in achieving climate and energy goals over time. This analysis was conducted between 2016 and 2023, based on open data in the Eurostat database. The results are presented in

Table 2. Decoupling index 2016–2023 for EU countries [own elaboration].

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Belgium	−0.373	−0.122	0.188	−0.159	2.469	0.295	−0.559	−0.770
Bulgaria	−1.301	0.487	−1.280	−0.243	−13.699	1.045	0.476	−2.538
Czechia	0.487	0.198	0.242	0.066	1.359	0.168	−0.265	−1.345
Denmark	1.540	−1.093	1.419	−3.786	−5.225	−0.038	−0.449	5.026
Germany	−0.043	−0.521	1.873	−2.328	2.884	0.279	−0.002	−1.733
Estonia	2.448	0.562	0.481	−3.142	13.586	0.583	0.438	−1.971
Ireland	1.563	0.169	−0.247	−0.302	−0.498	0.202	−0.184	−7.852
Greece	8.807	2.761	−2.417	−3.198	1.357	0.311	−0.041	−0.786
Spain	−1.294	1.109	−0.657	−1.831	1.498	0.830	0.223	−1.037
France	1.072	0.898	−2.417	−0.493	2.273	0.902	−0.685	−1.268
Croatia	0.184	1.565	−1.473	−0.064	0.493	0.154	0.336	0.078
Italy	−0.553	1.165	−3.504	−1.755	1.076	0.965	−0.013	−1.706
Cyprus	1.148	0.084	−0.165	−0.636	0.998	0.155	0.082	0.278
Latvia	−5.191	−2.452	4.634	−3.437	−20.346	1.443	2.075	−0.843
Lithuania	2.144	0.662	0.611	−0.105	−0.581	−0.048	−0.638	0.022
Luxembourg	−0.901	0.802	1.285	0.124	−5.162	0.161	−2.801	−0.907
Hungary	0.930	0.264	0.111	−0.172	1.090	0.153	−0.753	−0.493
Malta	−2.185	0.587	0.001	0.836	1.170	0.019	0.793	−0.048
Netherlands	0.052	−0.416	−0.552	−0.598	5.707	0.148	−0.693	−1.189
Austria	−1.030	2.546	0.904	2.030	3.833	0.196	−0.183	0.707
Poland	−1.041	0.409	0.021	−0.148	3.542	0.814	−0.593	−0.609
Portugal	0.175	6.399	−5.450	−0.986	1.677	−0.105	0.359	−0.866
Romania	−1.321	0.657	0.365	−0.495	5.475	0.865	−0.327	−0.676
Slovenia	1.500	0.066	−0.053	−5.364	2.794	0.125	−0.355	−0.588
Slovakia	0.866	0.855	0.360	−1.739	58.742	1.635	−1.511	−0.354
Finland	6.533	0.325	6.813	−4.009	12.948	3.690	−0.338	−3.187
Sweden	−53.592	290.062	−50.581	−5.792	−44.240	5.713	−1.706	−11.077

(own elaboration).

A negative value indicates absolute decoupling (GDP increases and emissions decrease), which is desirable in the context of energy transition. A value close to zero indicates no significant relationship between economic growth and changes in emissions. A positive value indicates that emissions are growing faster than GDP or falling slower than GDP, indicating no decoupling or positive coupling (economic growth associated with a greater environmental burden). As the data presented in the table demonstrates, there is high volatility among EU countries during the period under review. The index fluctuates significantly in many EU countries, suggesting that the impact of short-term factors (weather, energy crises, changes in the fuel mix) can significantly modify the emissions-GDP relationship. COVID-19 pandemic (2020)—many countries saw a sharp increase in positive values (e.g., Estonia 13.586; Slovakia 58.742; Finland 12.948), resulting from a sharp decline in GDP accompanied by a smaller decline in emissions or even an increase in them in selected sectors. However, the 2021–2023 period, following the economic rebound, saw a return to negative values in many countries (e.g., Belgium, Poland, Germany), suggesting a recurrence of the absolute decoupling effect, partially supported by an increase in the share of renewable energy sources and improved energy efficiency. Countries with frequent absolute decoupling: Belgium, Spain, France, Germany, and Poland (with a significant decline in emissions during periods of GDP growth, although not in all years). Countries with unstable results: Denmark, Estonia, and Finland—there are both years with very strong positive coupling and years with pronounced decoupling, which may be due to the high share of energy-intensive industries and sensitivity to fluctuations in energy imports/exports.

Sweden’s situation compared to other countries was characterized by the greatest amplitude of changes in emissions levels. In 2014–2016, the emissions balance was low or negative, mainly due to the high share of renewable energy sources and CO₂ sinks (forests). The years 2017–2019 were a period of strong emissions growth, due in part to climate disasters (fires) and growing economic activity. In 2020, emissions declined due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, the period 2021–2023 saw a return to emissions growth, related to the economic recovery and the energy crisis in Europe. Compared to other Member States, Poland shows moderate improvement in decoupling, especially in 2020–2021 (3.54 and 0.82—which are positive values, i.e., not absolute decoupling) and negative values in 2022–2023 (−0.59 and −0.60), indicating a partial decoupling of GDP growth and emissions. The volatility of the indicator in Poland is lower than in many EU countries, which may mean a more stable energy mix but also a slower pace of change towards a low-emission economy. The process of transformation of the energy systems of the member states showed the highest decrease in the share of solid fuels, i.e., hard coal and lignite, in energy production. The decarbonization process has the greatest impact on energy systems, mainly based on this fuel. An example of a country most dependent on fossil fuels, hard coal, and lignite (68% in 2022) in the energy sector is Poland. The process of transformation of the country’s energy system is considered unique on the scale of the European Union; hence, the example of Poland was analyzed in the scenario studies. Stochastic modeling was used to take into account the uncertainty and variability of factors influencing the realization of scenarios. Monte Carlo simulations were used for this purpose, which consists of multiple drawings of values of random variables and calculating the results. Probability distributions for each variable were also defined based on historical data and current economic, political, and technological conditions.

The stochastic component of the analysis was implemented through Monte Carlo simulations, which are widely recognized as a robust tool for propagating uncertainty in energy system modeling [44,45]. Instead of relying on deterministic point values, the approach incorporates probability distributions for key input parameters, including macroeconomic growth, energy demand trajectories, and the costs of low-emission technologies. By running a large number of iterations (N = 10,000), the model generates a distribution of possible outcomes rather than a single pathway. This allows the identification of confidence intervals for each scenario, highlighting not only the most likely trajectories but also tail risks, such as delayed deployment of renewables or stronger-than-expected economic shocks. The integration of Monte Carlo with multi-criteria analysis (MCA) provides an additional layer of robustness, as the stochastic framework captures uncertainty in both quantitative variables and in the weighting of qualitative criteria. Such a combined approach has been increasingly applied in recent energy transition research as it better reflects the complexity and uncertainty inherent in long-term decarbonization strategies.

The relative and absolute decoupling of economic growth from CO₂ emissions observed in the EU confirms the effectiveness of climate policies, with the dynamics and stability of this process depending on the structure of the energy mix, the share of fossil fuels, and the economy’s sensitivity to random factors. However, the importance of maintaining these results over the long term should be emphasized, as the presented analysis over the assumed time period is fragmented. Therefore, another important research issue worth considering is the phenomenon of carbon leakage, where heavy industry may be relocating to countries without stringent emission limits. Hence, the authors emphasize the importance and multifaceted nature of research into the issue of decoupling economic growth from emissions, highlighting the limitations of this approach in the long-term horizon.

Another fact is the emission of the effects of imported and outsourced emissions. In many countries, the decarbonization of domestic industrial sectors involves relocating production or importing raw materials and goods produced in countries with higher emissions. Decoupling analyses typically consider territorial emissions, leading to subjectively favorable results—emissions are “shifted” beyond national borders, and global emission reductions do not necessarily progress. Furthermore, there is limited technological and infrastructure dynamics. Decoupling models assume some flexibility in the transition to low-emission technologies, but in reality, the development of energy infrastructure (power plants, transmission grids, energy storage) is time-consuming and capital-intensive. Decoupling GDP indicators from emissions do not always take into account technological constraints and the pace of innovation, which can lead to unrealistic forecasts of climate neutrality. There is a rebound effect, meaning that reducing emissions intensity in one area can generate emissions increases in another, for example, through increased energy consumption resulting from lower costs or energy efficiency. Decoupling analyses, based primarily on average indicators, often fail to account for such effects, limiting their usefulness in precisely planning climate neutrality. However, it is important to emphasize the crucial importance of such analyses in monitoring the effectiveness of implemented environmental measures. It is crucial to simultaneously conduct more detailed sectoral analyses.

Stage III

The third stage of the research was to develop a strategy for the transformation of the energy balance of Poland, a country where the decarbonization process is particularly challenging due to the strong reliance on hard coal and lignite. Probability distributions for each variable were defined based on historical data as well as current economic, political, and technological conditions. Following standard practice in stochastic energy modeling, the criteria assessments were assumed to follow a normal distribution. Monte Carlo simulations with 10,000 iterations were used to propagate uncertainty across macroeconomic, technological, and policy-related variables, producing probability distributions of scenario outcomes rather than deterministic projections. The results related to H4 reflect probability scores derived from MCA. While such assessments inevitably include subjective components in weighting, this limitation was mitigated through sensitivity testing and Monte Carlo simulations, which increase the robustness of scenario evaluation.

Poland’s current energy system remains one of the most coal-dependent in the European Union, though recent shifts indicate emerging change. In 2024, fossil fuels still accounted for approximately 70% of Poland’s electricity generation [46]. However, the trajectory is shifting: the share of electricity from renewables rose to 26% in 2023 [47], and by 2024 renewables accounted for 29.4%, while coal’s share fell to 56.2% [48]. Despite this trend, the system remains heavily reliant on coal, placing Poland among the Member States facing the most demanding challenges in reaching the EU’s climate neutrality goals. Therefore, Poland serves as a representative case of a coal-dependent economy where transition pathways carry profound economic, social, and geopolitical implications.

Figure 11 illustrates the probability distribution of the transition scenarios obtained from the MCA framework supported by Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that the most probable pathways involve a gradual reduction in coal with accelerated deployment of renewables, while the rapid nuclear expansion scenario shows lower probability due to investment uncertainties and long lead times. The stochastic approach allows the identification of confidence ranges: while coal-free pathways by 2050 are achievable in optimistic variants, delayed implementation or external shocks substantially increase the likelihood of transitional reliance on natural gas. The probabilistic outcomes emphasize the importance of robust policy support and investment stability to achieve consistent progress towards climate neutrality.

As a result of the research, three potential scenarios for the development of the energy system in Poland until 2040 were identified.

Scenario 1—The “High share of renewable energy sources (RES)” scenario assumes intensive development of RES in Poland, in particular wind, solar and biomass energy, which leads to:

• Increasing the share of RES in the energy mix to 50% by 2050.
• Significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
• Improvement of air quality.

Key assumptions include:

• Target installed capacity of RES: 50 GW
• Cost of investment in RES: EUR 1 million per 1 MW of installed capacity
• Cost of energy storage: EUR 0.5 million per 1 MW of storage capacity
• Reduction of CO₂ emissions: 70% compared to 2020 levels, CO₂ emissions in 2020 amount to 300 million tons.
• Political support (P): μ = 0.8, σ = 0.05, Poland has committed to implementing the climate goals resulting from the Paris Agreement and the European Green Deal. Government support for renewable energy is strong, which favors the implementation of this scenario
• Economic conditions (E): μ = 0.7, σ = 0.05, High investment costs in renewable energy can be partially covered by EU funds and national support programs. Nevertheless, significant financial outlays will be necessary.
• Technological possibilities (T): μ = 0.8, σ = 0.05, Technological advances in wind, solar and energy storage are significant. The technology is available and developing dynamically.
• Social support (S): μ = 0.6, σ = 0.05. Growing ecological awareness of society favors the development of renewable energy, although there may be local resistance related to the location of wind and solar farms.
• Geopolitical risks (G): μ = 0.9, σ = 0.05. Renewable energy sources reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports, which is beneficial from the point of view of energy security.

A multi-criteria analysis was used to determine the probability of the scenario, taking into account the interactions between criteria.

Assessments and weights:

• Political support (P): C1 = 0.80, W1 = 0.30
• Economic conditions (E): C2 = 0.70, W2 = 0.25
• Technological possibilities (T): C3 = 0.80, W3 = 0.20
• Social support (S): C4 = 0.60, W4 = 0.15
• Geopolitical risks (G): C5 = 0.90, W5 = 0.10

Interaction coefficients:

• I12 = 0.05, I13 = 0.04, I14 = 0.03, I15 = 0.02,
• I23 = 0.05, I24 = 0.04, I25 = 0.03,
• I34 = 0.04, I35 = 0.03,
• I36 = 0.02

Calculation of probability for Scenario 1:

$$P_1={\sum }_{i=1}^n{C}_i{W}_i+{\sum }_{i=1}^n{\sum }_{j=i+1}^n{I}_{ij}{C}_i{C}_j=0.96$$

(3)

Scenario 1: High share of renewable energy sources has a high probability of realization of around 0.96. This is due to strong political support, significant technological progress and benefits related to independence from fossil fuel imports. High investment costs and potential social resistance are challenges, but they are balanced by the availability of EU funds and national support programs.

Scenario 2—The “Increasing role of nuclear energy” scenario assumes intensive development of nuclear energy in Poland until 2050, including:

• Start of construction of several nuclear power plants.
• Significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the long term.
• Ensuring stability of energy supply.

Key assumptions include:

• Target installed nuclear capacity: 6 GW by 2050
• Cost of building a nuclear power plant: EUR 5 million per 1 MW of installed capacity
• Operating cost of a nuclear power plant: EUR 0.1 million per year per 1 MW of installed capacity
• CO₂ emission reduction: 60% compared to 2020 levels
• Political support (P): μ = 0.6, σ = 0.05, The government plans to develop nuclear energy, but there is some social and regulatory resistance.
• Economic conditions (E): μ = 0.5, σ = 0.05, High construction costs and long-term financial commitments are significant challenges, but stability of operating costs can also be beneficial.
• Technological possibilities (T): μ = 0.7, σ = 0.05, Nuclear technologies are developed, but require a long construction time and appropriate safety regulations.
• Public support (S): μ = 0.4, σ = 0.05. There are mixed public reactions and concerns about safety and radioactive waste.
• Geopolitical risks (G): μ = 0.8, σ = 0.05. Nuclear energy reduces dependence on fossil fuel imports, but in the case of Poland requires nuclear fuel imports.

Multi-criteria analysis was used to determine the probability of the scenario, taking into account the interactions between criteria.

Ratings and weights:

• Political support (P): C1 = 0.60, W1 = 0.30
• Economic conditions (E): C2 = 0.50, W2 = 0.25
• Technological possibilities (T): C3 = 0.70, W3 = 0.20
• Social support (S): C4 = 0.40, W4 = 0.15
• Geopolitical risks (G): C5 = 0.80, W5 = 0.10

Interaction coefficients:

• I12 = 0.05, I13 = 0.04, I14 = 0.03, I15 = 0.02,
• I23 = 0.05, I24 = 0.04, I25 = 0.03,
• I34 = 0.04, I35 = 0.03,
• I36 = 0.02

Calculation of probability for Scenario 2:

$$P_2={\sum }_{i=1}^n{C}_i{W}_i+{\sum }_{i=1}^n{\sum }_{j=i+1}^n{I}_{ij}{C}_i{C}_j=0.70$$

(4)

Scenario 2: Increasing the role of nuclear power by 2050 has a moderate probability of realization of about 0.70. This is due to challenges related to high investment costs, long-term financial commitments and mixed social reactions. Nevertheless, strong political support, stability of operating costs and reduced dependence on fossil fuel imports may support the realization of this scenario.

Scenario 3—The “Increasing energy efficiency” scenario assumes increased actions to increase energy efficiency in Poland by 2050, which include:

• Modernization of energy infrastructure.
• Implementation of modern energy efficiency technologies.

Key assumptions include:

• Reduction in energy consumption: 20% by 2050
• Cost of infrastructure modernization: EUR 0.2 million per 1 MW of energy savings
• Reduction of CO₂ emissions: 15% compared to 2020 levels
• Political support (P): μ = 0.9, σ = 0.05, Increasing energy efficiency has high political support at national and EU level.
• Economic conditions (E): μ = 0.8, σ = 0.05, Modernization costs are lower compared to building new energy sources. EU funds are also available.
• Technological possibilities (T): μ = 0.7, σ = 0.05, Existing technologies are sufficient, but require wide implementation and modernization of infrastructure.
• Social support (S): μ = 0.8, σ = 0.05. There is high social support for actions improving energy efficiency and reducing energy costs.
• Geopolitical risks (G): μ = 0.9, σ = 0.05. Reducing energy consumption reduces dependence on fossil fuel imports, which is beneficial from the point of view of energy security.

A multi-criteria analysis was used to determine the probability of the scenario, taking into account the interactions between criteria.

Ratings and weights:

• Political support (P): C1 = 0.90, W1 = 0.30
• Economic conditions (E): C2 = 0.80, W2 = 0.25
• Technological possibilities (T): C3 = 0.70, W3 = 0.20
• Social support (S): C4 = 0.80, W4 = 0.15
• Geopolitical risks (G): C5 = 0.90, W5 = 0.10

Interaction coefficients:

• I12 = 0.05, I13 = 0.04, I14 = 0.03, I15 = 0.02,
• I23 = 0.05, I24 = 0.04, I25 = 0.03,
• I34 = 0.04, I35 = 0.03,
• I36 = 0.02

Calculation of probability for Scenario 3:

$$P_1={\sum }_{i=1}^n{C}_i{W}_i+{\sum }_{i=1}^n{\sum }_{j=i+1}^n{I}_{ij}{C}_i{C}_j=0.96$$

(5)

Scenario 3: Increasing energy efficiency by 2050 has a very high probability of implementation of 0.96. This is due to strong political support, availability of technology and high public support for actions improving energy efficiency. Reducing energy consumption reduces dependence on fossil fuel imports, which is beneficial from the point of view of energy security.

In order to strengthen the analytical basis of the three scenarios, their main drivers, enablers, barriers and policy requirements were identified based on national and EU strategic documents as well as recent literature. This structured overview, presented in

Table 3. Overview of drivers, enablers, barriers and policy requirements for RES, Nuclear and Efficiency scenarios in Poland.

Scenario	Drivers (Push Factors)	Enablers (Supporting Factors)	Barriers (Constraints)	Policy Requirements (Alignment with PEP2040 & EU)
RES	Falling costs of wind and solar; EU 2030/2050 targets; rising public support.	Grid modernization; storage deployment; EU funding (e.g., Recovery Fund).	Intermittency; social opposition to onshore wind; permitting delays.	Streamlined permitting; support for prosumers; RES auctions; grid investment.
Nuclear	Need for baseload low-carbon power; energy security; PEP2040 includes 6–9 GW nuclear.	International partnerships (e.g., US, Korea, France); political momentum.	Long lead times; high CAPEX; social acceptance; dependency on foreign vendors.	Stable financing model (CfD/PPP); transparent siting; integration with RES policies.
Efficiency	High energy intensity of Polish economy; EU Fit for 55 obligations.	EU ETS price signals; digitalization; ESCO market growth.	Split incentives (households/SMEs); financing gaps; weak awareness.	Building renovation wave; tax incentives; energy education campaigns.

Source: own study.

, provides the policy and institutional context for the scenario modeling and links the quantitative assessment with the practical conditions of Poland’s energy transition.

The scenario assessment is therefore not limited to probability scores but is grounded in national and EU policy documents (PEP2040, Fit for 55, REPowerEU) and comparable experiences from other coal-dependent economies (e.g., Czech Republic, Romania). This ensures that the feasibility and policy relevance of the scenarios are directly reflected in the modeling framework.

Analyses of the three energy transition scenarios indicate varying likelihood of their implementation and specific supporting and limiting factors. Scenario 1—High share of renewable energy sources (RES). This scenario has a high probability of implementation (approximately 0.96). The main factors contributing to this are strong political support, significant technological progress, and the benefits of independence from fossil fuel imports. Challenges include high investment costs and potential public resistance, but these are partially offset by the availability of EU funds and national programs supporting the development of RES. Scenario 2—Increasing the role of nuclear energy. This scenario has a moderate probability of implementation (approximately 0.70). Limiting factors include high investment costs, long-term financial commitments, and varied public reactions. At the same time, stable operating costs, political support, and reduced dependence on fossil fuels may favor its implementation. Scenario 3—Increasing energy efficiency. This scenario has a very high probability of implementation (0.96). Strong political support, the availability of appropriate technologies, and high public acceptance of energy efficiency initiatives are key enabling factors. Furthermore, reducing energy consumption contributes to improved energy security by reducing dependence on fossil fuel imports. The analysis indicates that renewable energy and energy efficiency initiatives have the greatest chance of implementation by 2050, provided they receive significant political and social support. While feasible, the development of nuclear energy carries higher financial and social risks, requiring careful investment planning and public communication.

Hypothesis 3: 

A scenario of high penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) in Poland will enable a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions while promoting energy system stability through infrastructure modernization and the development of energy storage.

The hypothesis is confirmed. Justification:

Analyses indicate that high utilization of renewable energy sources (RES) leads to a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions by replacing fossil fuels with wind, solar, and hydropower. Modernization of energy infrastructure and the development of energy storage systems (batteries, thermal storage, demand response) increase grid stability, enabling the balancing of production variability with RES. Furthermore, available political and financial support favors the implementation of this scenario by minimizing investment and technological risk.

Hypothesis 4: 

Integrating nuclear power as a stabilizing component of Poland’s energy mix will enable significant decarbonization while maintaining the reliability of energy supply.

The hypothesis is partially confirmed. Justification:

Nuclear power allows for a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions thanks to low emissions during electricity production. Its stable and predictable base power supports the reliability of the energy system. However, implementing the nuclear scenario in Poland is associated with high investment costs, long construction deadlines, and varying public acceptance, which limits the likelihood of its full implementation within the assumed timeframe.

Hypothesis 5: 

A scenario focused on improving energy efficiency and reducing energy demand will be an effective way to reduce emissions and improve Poland’s energy security, even if a significant share of coal in the energy mix is maintained.

The hypothesis is confirmed. Justification:

Increasing energy efficiency and reducing energy consumption leads to reduced CO₂ emissions regardless of the fuel mix, because lower fossil fuel consumption translates into lower emissions. These measures also improve the country’s energy security by reducing dependence on fuel imports and lowering energy costs. Strong political support and high public acceptance of efficiency measures increase the likelihood of successful implementation of this scenario.

5. Discussion

As part of this study, it is important to emphasize the methodological limitations of decoupling analysis. Decoupling indicators, while useful for illustrating the separation of GDP growth from CO₂ emissions, cannot be unambiguously interpreted as a direct tool for achieving climate neutrality. This is due to the complex and often incomplete representation of economic and energy structures in individual countries, which significantly affects both the level of emissions and economic potential. Analyses based on aggregated CO₂ emissions relative to GDP may mask important sectoral differences. In countries with a high share of energy-intensive industries, a national-level decline in emissions does not necessarily reflect real reductions in critical sectors such as steel, chemicals, or heavy transport. Therefore, even if decoupling indicators suggest green growth, this should not be equated with full compliance with climate neutrality objectives.

Turning to the scenario analysis, the modeling results confirm that the highest probabilities are associated with the scenarios of increasing energy efficiency and expanding renewable energy sources in Poland, each reaching a probability level of 0.96. These outcomes underline that efficiency improvements and RES development constitute the most robust and politically feasible pathways for Poland’s energy transition by 2050.

The successful implementation of these pathways, however, depends on legislative, technological, and economic conditions. Priority areas include investment in the modernization of existing infrastructure, particularly transmission networks, coupled with the deployment of smart grids to reduce energy losses. In addition, improving energy efficiency in construction, industry, and transport remains a key requirement. Expanding the share of renewable energy sources should focus on further development of offshore and onshore wind farms, as well as accelerated deployment of photovoltaics on residential, public, and industrial buildings. The development of biogas plants and biomass use, together with increased investment in energy storage technologies, is also essential. These measures will enable Poland to align with the Green Deal objectives while ensuring energy security and system resilience.

6. Conclusions

The conducted research confirms that the transformation of the Polish energy system remains a key challenge in the context of the European Union’s climate and energy policy. Despite the dynamic increase in renewable energy capacity in recent years, Poland continues to rank among the Member States with the highest dependence on fossil fuels. In 2024, coal still represented 56.2% of electricity generation, while renewables reached 29.4%, compared to 26% in 2023 and 21% in 2022 [48,49,50,51]. These numbers illustrate not only the scale of ongoing structural change but also the persistence of deep dependence on coal, which continues to shape both the pace of decarbonization and the associated economic and social risks. The case of Poland therefore constitutes an important example of a coal-based economy where energy transition pathways have multidimensional consequences, extending beyond technical feasibility into the areas of social acceptance, labor market restructuring, and geopolitical security. The methodological novelty of this paper lies in applying a three-stage framework that integrates structural and dynamic perspectives with probabilistic scenario analysis. Stage I provided a comparative structural assessment of the Polish and EU energy systems, highlighting long-term trends in the diversification of the energy mix and the evolution of import dependency. Stage II addressed the decoupling of GDP growth and emissions, showing that while absolute decoupling is observable in several EU Member States, Poland exhibits strong volatility and incomplete separation of these trajectories. Stage III introduced stochastic modeling using multi-criteria analysis (MCA) combined with Monte Carlo simulations, generating probability distributions of potential transition pathways. This methodological integration offers a richer and more nuanced view of the transition process than traditional deterministic models, capturing uncertainty across economic, political, technological, and social domains. The scenario analysis shows that the most probable trajectory for Poland involves a steady reduction in coal combined with accelerated deployment of renewables. This scenario is consistent with both observed market dynamics and EU policy directions. Nuclear energy emerges as a possible stabilizing factor in some variants, but the probability of rapid expansion remains limited due to long construction times, investment risks, and political debates. The simulations also suggest that while coal-free pathways by 2050 are technically feasible, delays in implementation or unexpected geopolitical shocks would likely extend the transitional role of natural gas. Such outcomes underline the importance of integrating uncertainty into planning exercises, as the range of potential futures is wide, and deterministic projections alone are insufficient to capture the complexity of the process. In conclusion, the Polish case highlights both the opportunities and risks inherent in transitioning from a coal-based to a diversified low-emission system. The results indicate that sustained policy support, investment stability, and public acceptance are crucial for achieving climate neutrality in a socially just and economically viable way. At the same time, the application of stochastic modeling demonstrates the value of probabilistic approaches for informing policy decisions, as they expose tail risks and confidence ranges rather than only central projections. The study thus contributes to the literature by providing a country-specific, probabilistic framework for assessing energy transition scenarios and by showing how coal-dependent economies can navigate the uncertainty of decarbonization pathways.