Comparative Analysis of Methods for Predicting Brine Temperature in Vertical Ground Heat Exchanger—A Case Study
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Subject of the Research
2.2. Selection of Variables for Model Construction
- the coefficient of variation was greater than 10%;
- the correlation coefficient between the independent variables was less than 0.7;
- there was a statistically significant correlation between the dependent variable and the independent variable.
2.3. Construction and Quality Assessment of Forecasting Models
- ANNs—Artificial Neural Networks;
- CARTs—Classification and Regression Trees;
- CHAID—Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector;
- FUZZY—Fuzzy Logic Toolbox;
- MARSs—Multivariant Adaptive Regression Splines;
- RTs—Regression Trees;
- RST—Rough Set Theory;
- SRTs—Support Regression Trees.
3. Discussion of Research Results
3.1. Preliminary Preparation of the Research Material
3.2. Assessing the Quality of Brine Temperature Prediction Models
4. Summary and Conclusions
- From the comparative evaluation of selected models forecasting the brine temperature from vertical ground heat exchangers (VGHEs), it is evident that for a limited set of variables using readily available weather data, such as the average daily outside air temperature, the month of the heating season, and the average solar radiation intensity, the best quality forecasts were obtained using the method based on Rough Set Theory (RST). An alternative method could be Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), which allow for predictions with slightly higher errors.
- For a larger number of independent variables (such as the average daily outside air temperature, the month of the heating season, average solar radiation intensity, and the amount of brine flowing through the ground heat exchangers), the use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARSs) method are preferred.
- The conducted research confirmed the influence of meteorological conditions on brine temperature and, consequently, the temperature of the geothermal reservoir. Two different trends in the influence of external temperature and solar radiation intensity on brine temperature were observed. The research indicated a difference at the level of +3 °C.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable | Subset I | Subset II | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average | Min | Max | Coefficient of Variation | Average | Min | Max | Coefficient of Variation | |
C1 | 1.18 | −12.32 | 17.93 | 384.13 | 9.11 | 1.11 | 16.38 | 39.34 |
C2 | 4 | 1.00 | 9.00 | 79.63 | 7.28 | 6.00 | 8.00 | 9.67 |
C3 | 48.45 | 0.00 | 296.15 | 125.56 | 90.55 | 4.13 | 246.15 | 78.18 |
C4 | 17.13 | 0.37 | 30.62 | 26.47 | 9.19 | 1.95 | 17.19 | 38.99 |
C5 | 2141.42 | 46.71 | 3838.96 | 26.00 | 1150.33 | 241.00 | 2138.25 | 39.01 |
C6 | 3372.24 | 54.95 | 12,736.56 | 79.78 | 219.60 | 35.29 | 592.31 | 59.13 |
d | 0.96 | 0.24 | 2.98 | 56.31 | 6.05 | 3.56 | 10.71 | 28.98 |
Variable | C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 | C6 | d |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C1 | 1.00 | ||||||
C2 | 0.01 | 1.00 | |||||
C3 | 0.43 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||
C4 | −1.00 | −0.01 * | −0.43 | 1.00 | |||
C5 | −1.00 | −0.03 * | −0.43 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
C6 | −0.67 | −0.46 | −0.13 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
d | 0.36 | 0.57 | −0.01 * | −0.36 | −0.36 | −0.75 | 1.00 |
Variable | C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 | C6 | d |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C1 | 1.00 | ||||||
C2 | −0.44 | 1.00 | |||||
C3 | 0.50 | −0.48 | 1.00 | ||||
C4 | −1.00 | 0.44 | −0.50 | 1.00 | |||
C5 | −1.00 | 0.43 | −0.51 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
C6 | −0.62 | 0.57 | −0.59 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.00 | |
d | 0.57 | −0.60 | 0.58 | −0.57 | −0.57 | −0.79 | 1.00 |
No. | Method | CV RMSE % | MAE °C | MAPE % | MBE % | R2 - | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | ANN | 25.31 | 0.33 | 18.29 | −0.68 | 0.94 | |
2 | CART | 30.63 | 0.4 | 20.58 | −0.13 | 0.91 | |
3 | CHAID | 30.12 | 0.4 | 20.24 | −0.44 | 0.91 | |
4 | FUZZY | pimf | 38.16 | 0.43 | 20.32 | 1.25 | 0.86 |
trimf | 38.54 | 0.43 | 19.62 | 1.51 | 0.86 | ||
trapmf | 39.56 | 0.44 | 27.63 | 0.07 | 0.85 | ||
gaussmf | 83.78 | 0.61 | 22.87 | 8.26 | 0.47 | ||
5 | MARS | 26.38 | 0.41 | 25.54 | −3.32 | 0.93 | |
6 | RT | 24.82 | 0.37 | 21.89 | −4.39 | 0.94 | |
7 | RST | 21.56 | 0.28 | 14.3 | 3.09 | 0.96 | |
8 | SRT | 28.9 | 0.48 | 25.87 | −6.85 | 0.93 |
No. | Method | CV RMSE % | MAE °C | MAPE % | MBE % | R2 - | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | ANN | 4.61 | 0.05 | 1.67 | 0.39 | 0.99 | |
2 | CART | 18.95 | 0.27 | 11.89 | −4.06 | 0.97 | |
3 | CHAID | 16.54 | 0.24 | 12.39 | −1.7 | 0.98 | |
4 | FUZZY | gaussmf | 27.83 | 0.28 | 16.63 | 3.25 | 0.93 |
gbellmf | 40.26 | 0.36 | 13.84 | 0.36 | 0.86 | ||
pimf | 49.76 | 0.44 | 16.26 | 9.42 | 0.77 | ||
trapmf | 49.66 | 0.39 | 13.97 | 10.16 | 0.77 | ||
trimf | 31.99 | 0.34 | 20.85 | 5.5 | 0.91 | ||
5 | MARS | 3.7 | 0.06 | 4.55 | 1.08 | 0.99 | |
6 | RT | 17.15 | 0.25 | 10.28 | −1.55 | 0.97 | |
7 | RST | 15.33 | 0.2 | 8.57 | −0.17 | 0.98 | |
8 | SRT | 14.5 | 0.22 | 9.87 | −0.11 | 0.98 |
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Piotrowska-Woroniak, J.; Nęcka, K.; Szul, T.; Lis, S. Comparative Analysis of Methods for Predicting Brine Temperature in Vertical Ground Heat Exchanger—A Case Study. Energies 2024, 17, 1465. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17061465
Piotrowska-Woroniak J, Nęcka K, Szul T, Lis S. Comparative Analysis of Methods for Predicting Brine Temperature in Vertical Ground Heat Exchanger—A Case Study. Energies. 2024; 17(6):1465. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17061465
Chicago/Turabian StylePiotrowska-Woroniak, Joanna, Krzysztof Nęcka, Tomasz Szul, and Stanisław Lis. 2024. "Comparative Analysis of Methods for Predicting Brine Temperature in Vertical Ground Heat Exchanger—A Case Study" Energies 17, no. 6: 1465. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17061465
APA StylePiotrowska-Woroniak, J., Nęcka, K., Szul, T., & Lis, S. (2024). Comparative Analysis of Methods for Predicting Brine Temperature in Vertical Ground Heat Exchanger—A Case Study. Energies, 17(6), 1465. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17061465