Scenario Analysis of the Development of the Polish Power System towards Achieving Climate Neutrality in 2050
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Methodology
2.2. Description of the TIMES-PL Model
2.3. Forecast of Electricity Demand
2.4. Forecast of Potentials of Primary Energy Sources
2.5. Forecast of Fuel Prices
2.6. Forecast of Price of CO2 Emission Allowances under the EU ETS
2.7. Scenarios
Scenario Storylines
3. Results
3.1. Electric Capacity and Electricity Production
3.2. Investment Cost
3.3. CO2 Emissions
3.4. Fuel Consumption
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Fuel/Technology 1 | Start Year | OVN Cost | O&M Fixed Cost | O&M Variable Cost | Net Electric Efficiency/Total | Technical Lifetime | CO2 Emission Factor |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EUR/kWnet | EUR/kWnet | EUR/GJ 2 | % | Years | kg/GJ 3 | ||
Hard coal/PC | 2025 | 1650 | 44 | 0.89 | 46 | 40 | 94 |
Hard coal/PC + CCS | 2035 | 3000 | 75 | 1.43 4 | 38 | 40 | 12 |
Hard coal/IGCC + CCS (350 MWnet) | 2035 | 3250 | 79 | 2.02 4 | 40 | 40 | 12 |
Hard coal/IGCC + CCS (175 MWnet) | 2035 | 4000 | 78 | 2.00 4 | 40 | 40 | 12 |
Hard coal/CHP | 2025 | 2250 | 48 | 0.89 | 30/80 | 40 | 94 |
Hard coal/CHP + CCS | 2035 | 3500 | 76 | 2.78 4 | 22/75 | 40 | 12 |
Lignite/FBC | 2025 | 2050 | 50 | 0.94 | 40 | 40 | 109 |
Lignite/PL + CCS | 2035 | 3250 | 72 | 2.39 4 | 35 | 40 | 13 |
Natural gas/CCGT (680 MWnet) | 2025 | 750 | 18 | 0.51 | 58–62 | 30 | 56 |
Natural gas/CCGT (390 MWnet) | 2025 | 840 | 18 | 0.50 | 58–62 | 30 | 56 |
Natural gas/CCGT + CCS (490 MWnet) | 2035 | 1350 | 38 | 1.12 4 | 50–52 | 30 | 7 |
Natural gas/CCGT + CCS (280 MWnet) | 2035 | 1510 | 38 | 1.11 4 | 50–52 | 30 | 7 |
Natural gas/OCGT (680 MWnet) | 2025 | 500 | 16 | 0.39 | 40 | 30 | 56 |
Natural gas/OCGT (390 MWnet) | 2025 | 560 | 16 | 0.39 | 40 | 30 | 56 |
Natural gas/CHP (370 MWnet) | 2025 | 1010 | 25 | 0.36 | 34/80 | 30 | 56 |
Natural gas/CHP (47 MWnet) | 2025 | 1245 | 24 | 0.35 | 34/80 | 30 | 56 |
Nuclear/PWR (1300 MWnet) | 2035 | 4840–4700 | 87 | 1.70 | 33 | 60 | 0 |
Onshore wind | 2025 | 1380–1120 | 35–31 | 0.00 | – | 25 | 0 |
Offshore wind | 2025 | 3150–2260 | 81–49 | 0.00 | – | 25 | 0 |
Photovoltaics/ground | 2025 | 830–655 | 10–8 | 0.00 | – | 25 | 0 |
Photovoltaics/roof | 2025 | 770–600 | 16 | 0.00 | – | 25 | 0 |
Hydro | 2025 | 2000 | 75 | 0.00 | – | 60 | 0 |
Biomass/CHP (43 MWnet) | 2025 | 2950–2750 | 120 | 0.89 | 30/80 | 30 | 0 |
Biogas/CHP (4.5 MWnet) | 2025 | 2650 | 108 | 0.57 | 37/85 | 25 | 0 |
Electricity/storage | 2025 | 1085–715 | 3 | 0.00 | 80 | 30 | 0 |
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2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net final demand | 132 | 152 | 165 | 178 | 192 | 204 | 217 |
Demand in the energy conversion sector | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
Transmission and distribution losses | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
Import–export | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net electricity production | 138 | 172 | 186 | 199 | 212 | 223 | 236 |
Own consumption of power plants | 14 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Gross electricity production | 152 | 187 | 200 | 211 | 224 | 234 | 246 |
2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Natural gas | 5.5 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 9.4 |
Oil crude | 8.0 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 14.3 | 15.6 | 16.8 |
Hard coal | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
Lignite | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Lignite (new deposits) | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
Uranium fuel | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
Biogas | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 |
Biomass | 5.9 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.3 |
2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EUA price | 25 | 35 | 54 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
Scenario | CO2 Limit 1 | RES Limit 2 | Nuclear Technologies | CCS Technologies |
---|---|---|---|---|
NUC | ≥95% | ≥40% | Yes | No |
CCS | ≥95% | ≥40% | No | Yes |
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Pluta, M.; Wyrwa, A.; Zyśk, J.; Suwała, W.; Raczyński, M. Scenario Analysis of the Development of the Polish Power System towards Achieving Climate Neutrality in 2050. Energies 2023, 16, 5918. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16165918
Pluta M, Wyrwa A, Zyśk J, Suwała W, Raczyński M. Scenario Analysis of the Development of the Polish Power System towards Achieving Climate Neutrality in 2050. Energies. 2023; 16(16):5918. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16165918
Chicago/Turabian StylePluta, Marcin, Artur Wyrwa, Janusz Zyśk, Wojciech Suwała, and Maciej Raczyński. 2023. "Scenario Analysis of the Development of the Polish Power System towards Achieving Climate Neutrality in 2050" Energies 16, no. 16: 5918. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16165918