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Article

Solar Radiation Prediction Using a Novel Hybrid Model of ARMA and NARX

1
Laboratory of Electrical Systems, National Engineers School of Tunis, University of Tunis El Manar, LR11ES15, Tunis 1002, Tunisia
2
ESTIA Institute of Technology, University Bordeaux, F-64210 Bidart, France
3
Higher Institute of Computing, University of Tunis El Manar, Ariana 2080, Tunisia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Jesús Polo
Energies 2021, 14(21), 6920; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14216920
Received: 11 May 2021 / Revised: 24 June 2021 / Accepted: 3 August 2021 / Published: 21 October 2021
The prediction of solar radiation has a significant role in several fields such as photovoltaic (PV) power production and micro grid management. The interest in solar radiation prediction is increasing nowadays so efficient prediction can greatly improve the performance of these different applications. This paper presents a novel solar radiation prediction approach which combines two models, the Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) and the Nonlinear Auto Regressive with eXogenous input (NARX). This choice has been carried out in order to take the advantages of both models to produce better prediction results. The performance of the proposed hybrid model has been validated using a real database corresponding to a company located in Barcelona north. Simulation results have proven the effectiveness of this hybrid model to predict the weekly solar radiation averages. The ARMA model is suitable for small variations of solar radiation while the NARX model is appropriate for large solar radiation fluctuations. View Full-Text
Keywords: solar radiation; PV power; prediction; ARMA; NARX; hybrid model solar radiation; PV power; prediction; ARMA; NARX; hybrid model
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MDPI and ACS Style

Sansa, I.; Boussaada, Z.; Bellaaj, N.M. Solar Radiation Prediction Using a Novel Hybrid Model of ARMA and NARX. Energies 2021, 14, 6920. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14216920

AMA Style

Sansa I, Boussaada Z, Bellaaj NM. Solar Radiation Prediction Using a Novel Hybrid Model of ARMA and NARX. Energies. 2021; 14(21):6920. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14216920

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sansa, Ines, Zina Boussaada, and Najiba M. Bellaaj. 2021. "Solar Radiation Prediction Using a Novel Hybrid Model of ARMA and NARX" Energies 14, no. 21: 6920. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14216920

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