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Article

Modelling Future Agricultural Mechanisation of Major Crops in China: An Assessment of Energy Demand, Land Use and Emissions

1
Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK
2
Department of the Built Environment, School of Design, University of Greenwich, London SE10 9LS, UK
3
Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City 04510, Mexico
4
Department of Earth Science & Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Energies 2020, 13(24), 6636; https://doi.org/10.3390/en13246636
Received: 22 November 2020 / Revised: 9 December 2020 / Accepted: 11 December 2020 / Published: 16 December 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Changes of Global Energy Systems)
Agricultural direct energy use is responsible for about 1–2% of global emissions and is the major emitting sector for methane (2.9 GtCO2eq y−1) and nitrous oxide (2.3 GtCO2eq y−1). In the last century, farm mechanisation has brought higher productivity levels and lower land demands at the expense of an increase in fossil energy and agrochemicals use. The expected increase in certain food and bioenergy crops and the uncertain mitigation options available for non-CO2 emissions make of vital importance the assessment of the use of energy and the related emissions attributable to this sector. The aim of this paper is to present a simulation framework able to forecast energy demand, technological diffusion, required investment and land use change of specific agricultural crops. MUSE-Ag & LU, a novel energy systems-oriented agricultural and land use model, has been used for this purpose. As case study, four main crops (maize, soybean, wheat and rice) have been modelled in mainland China. Besides conventional direct energy use, the model considers inputs such as fertiliser and labour demand. Outputs suggest that the modernisation of agricultural processes in China could have the capacity to reduce by 2050 on-farm emissions intensity from 0.024 to 0.016 GtCO2eq PJcrop−1 (−35.6%), requiring a necessary total investment of approximately 319.4 billion 2017$US. View Full-Text
Keywords: energy; agriculture; modelling; mechanisation; land use; China energy; agriculture; modelling; mechanisation; land use; China
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MDPI and ACS Style

García Kerdan, I.; Giarola, S.; Skinner, E.; Tuleu, M.; Hawkes, A. Modelling Future Agricultural Mechanisation of Major Crops in China: An Assessment of Energy Demand, Land Use and Emissions. Energies 2020, 13, 6636. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13246636

AMA Style

García Kerdan I, Giarola S, Skinner E, Tuleu M, Hawkes A. Modelling Future Agricultural Mechanisation of Major Crops in China: An Assessment of Energy Demand, Land Use and Emissions. Energies. 2020; 13(24):6636. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13246636

Chicago/Turabian Style

García Kerdan, Iván, Sara Giarola, Ellis Skinner, Marin Tuleu, and Adam Hawkes. 2020. "Modelling Future Agricultural Mechanisation of Major Crops in China: An Assessment of Energy Demand, Land Use and Emissions" Energies 13, no. 24: 6636. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13246636

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