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Open AccessArticle

A Two-Stage Industrial Load Forecasting Scheme for Day-Ahead Combined Cooling, Heating and Power Scheduling

1
School of Electrical Engineering, Korea University, 145 Anam-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea
2
Department of Software, Sejong University, 209 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul 05006, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
This paper is an extended version of our paper published in Proceedings of the 2019 IEEE International Conference on Power Electronic and Drive Systems (PEDS), Toulouse, France, 9–12 July 2019.
Energies 2020, 13(2), 443; https://doi.org/10.3390/en13020443 (registering DOI)
Received: 7 December 2019 / Revised: 15 January 2020 / Accepted: 15 January 2020 / Published: 16 January 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Power Electronics Applications in Renewable Energy Systems)
Smart grid systems, which have gained much attention due to its ability to reduce operation and management costs of power systems, consist of diverse components including energy storage, renewable energy, and combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) systems. The CCHP has been investigated to reduce energy costs by using the thermal energy generated during the power generation process. For efficient utilization of CCHP and numerous power generation systems, accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) is necessary. So far, even though many single algorithm-based STLF models have been proposed, they showed limited success in terms of applicability and coverage. This problem can be alleviated by combining such single algorithm-based models in ways that take advantage of their strengths. In this paper, we propose a novel two-stage STLF scheme; extreme gradient boosting and random forest models are executed in the first stage, and deep neural networks are executed in the second stage to combine them. To show the effectiveness of our proposed scheme, we compare our model with other popular single algorithm-based forecasting models and then show how much electric charges can be saved by operating CCHP based on the schedules made by the economic analysis on the predicted electric loads.
Keywords: short-term load forecasting; two-stage forecasting model; combined cooling heating and power; energy operation plan; economic analysis short-term load forecasting; two-stage forecasting model; combined cooling heating and power; energy operation plan; economic analysis
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MDPI and ACS Style

Park, S.; Moon, J.; Jung, S.; Rho, S.; Baik, S.W.; Hwang, E. A Two-Stage Industrial Load Forecasting Scheme for Day-Ahead Combined Cooling, Heating and Power Scheduling. Energies 2020, 13, 443.

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