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Open AccessArticle

Complex Extreme Sea Levels Prediction Analysis: Karachi Coast Case Study

1
Institute of Environmental Studies, University of Karachi, Karachi 75270, Pakistan
2
Institute for Energy Infrastructure (IEI), Universiti Tenaga Nasional (UNITEN), Kajang 43000, Selangor, Malaysia
3
Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang 550000, Vietnam
4
National Water Center, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain P.O. Box 15551, UAE
5
Civil and Environmental Eng. Dept., College of Engineering, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE
6
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Entropy 2020, 22(5), 549; https://doi.org/10.3390/e22050549
Received: 16 April 2020 / Revised: 7 May 2020 / Accepted: 11 May 2020 / Published: 14 May 2020
In this study, the analysis of the extreme sea level was carried out by using 10 years (2007–2016) of hourly tide gauge data of Karachi port station along the Pakistan coast. Observations revealed that the magnitudes of the tides usually exceeded the storm surges at this station. The main observation for this duration and the subsequent analysis showed that in June 2007 a tropical Cyclone “Yemyin” hit the Pakistan coast. The joint probability method (JPM) and the annual maximum method (AMM) were used for statistical analysis to find out the return periods of different extreme sea levels. According to the achieved results, the AMM and JPM methods erre compatible with each other for the Karachi coast and remained well within the range of 95% confidence. For the JPM method, the highest astronomical tide (HAT) of the Karachi coast was considered as the threshold and the sea levels above it were considered extreme sea levels. The 10 annual observed sea level maxima, in the recent past, showed an increasing trend for extreme sea levels. In the study period, the increment rates of 3.6 mm/year and 2.1 mm/year were observed for mean sea level and extreme sea level, respectively, along the Karachi coast. Tidal analysis, for the Karachi tide gauge data, showed less dependency of the extreme sea levels on the non-tidal residuals. By applying the Merrifield criteria of mean annual maximum water level ratio, it was found that the Karachi coast was tidally dominated and the non-tidal residual contribution was just 10%. The examination of the highest water level event (13 June 2014) during the study period, further favored the tidal dominance as compared to the non-tidal component along the Karachi coast. View Full-Text
Keywords: extreme sea level prediction; complex system prediction; annual maximum method; joint probability method; Pakistan coast extreme sea level prediction; complex system prediction; annual maximum method; joint probability method; Pakistan coast
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Khan, F.A.; Khan, T.M.A.; Ahmed, A.N.; Afan, H.A.; Sherif, M.; Sefelnasr, A.; El-Shafie, A. Complex Extreme Sea Levels Prediction Analysis: Karachi Coast Case Study. Entropy 2020, 22, 549.

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