Search Results (4,079)

The Louis Botha Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) was introduced to address apartheid-era urban fragmentation. However, the extent to which the TOD initiative has translated into tangible built-form outcomes remains unclear. This study empirically evaluates TOD performance along the Louis Botha Corridor, covering eight precincts along the 13.16 km stretch. The precincts include Hillbrow, Berea, Orange Grove, Highlands North, Balfour, Bramley, Wynberg, and Marlboro. The measurable parameters are Building Footprint Density (BFD), Floor Area Ratio (FAR), land-use composition, and transit accessibility. The results show a corridor-wide average BFD of 0.2689 and average FAR of 0.5046, indicating moderate but uneven development intensity. Wynberg emerges as the highest-intensity node, (BFD 0.4049 and FAR 0.8196), while Hillbrow exhibits strong vertical intensification with a high FAR of 0.7098 despite a lower BFD (0.1925). In contrast, Marlboro, Berea, Balfour, Orange Grove, and Highlands North have a FARs below the corridor average of 0.5046. Land-use analysis reveals a corridor-level balance (53.14% residential, 44.40% non-residential); however, at the precinct level, monofunctional use prevails, with residential dominance in Orange Grove (87.96%), Highlands North (79.39%), and Berea (75.86%). Transit accessibility analysis indicates inconsistent station spacing (mean = 1.68 km; SD = 0.75 km), with about 87.51% of walking distances exceeding 400 m, which exceeds recommended TOD thresholds. The findings underscore the need for precinct-specific densification policies and stronger coordination between transit investment, development control, and urban governance to achieve more inclusive, transit-supportive urban growth. Full article

Background/Objectives: Postural and gait assessment is essential in the clinical evaluation of people with Parkinson’s disease (PwPD). However, conventional clinical assessments may lack the complexity required to uncover subtle deficits, particularly in individuals who compensate well under controlled conditions but struggle in daily life. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the incorporation of ecologically relevant postural and gait tasks into a controlled experimental environment enhances the detection of subtle motor deficits in PwPD, and to examine the ability of these tasks to distinguish between different levels of disease severity. Methods: Sixteen healthy subjects (HS) and 16 age-matched PwPD, further divided into Mild_PD (n = 9) and Moderate_PD (n = 7), performed a 60 s postural task on different surfaces (ground, medium elastic response, pebbles and root-like) and two walking tasks on ground (10-meter walk test, 10MWT) and on a 4 m mat with medium elastic response (MatWalk), while wearing five inertial measurement units. Postural and spatiotemporal parameters were extracted and statistically analyzed. Results: Postural task analysis revealed limited between-group differences, whereas within-group comparisons identified several significant differences across surfaces in HS and fewer in the PD group. Gait task analysis showed broader impairments, with some parameters differing in both walking tests and others only during the MatWalk when comparing HS and PD. Compliant surface walking was particularly sensitive to subtle gait alterations in Mild_PD. Conclusions: Ecologically relevant walking tasks, especially on compliant surfaces, may complement conventional assessments by revealing subtle gait impairments in PwPD not fully captured by standard clinical tests. Full article

Robotic gait technologies can deliver intensive, repetitive, task-oriented stepping, but multimodal platforms require careful integration before clinical testing. This concept-level technical proof-of-concept describes Li-Walk^®, an investigational fixed robotic gait-training platform combining a treadmill-synchronized lower-limb exoskeleton, dynamic body-weight support, phase-synchronized infrared-A (IR-A) thermal biofeedback, directional acoustic feedback, a semi-immersive display, camera-derived body representation, and artificial intelligence (AI)-supported therapist guidance. The architecture is defined through subsystem interfaces, implementation status, operational states, explicit risk controls, and a staged validation roadmap. No human participants, patient-level data, bench datasets, or statistical analyses were involved; subsystem factory checks did not characterize integrated performance. The installed exoskeleton has four actuated sagittal axes at the hips and knees, with in-series load cells supplying interaction-force inputs for contingent ipsilateral IR-A cueing under reduced guidance. The integrated AI module combines rule constraints with a case-based design, but has no trained statistical model or clinical cohort database; the therapist retains parameter-setting authority. Live video and avatar modes are implemented, whereas independent thermal monitoring and structured recommendation audit trails remain planned. Trigger thresholds, sampling rates, end-to-end latency, exposure limits, and fault responses remain undocumented or unverified. The contribution is a conceptual integration framework that distinguishes implemented functions, declared specifications, and unverified requirements. Independent mechanical, thermal, software, and human-factors validation, followed by appropriately authorized human studies, is required to establish safety, usability, technical reproducibility, and any incremental rehabilitation benefit. The optional thermal branch requires particular safeguards for impaired thermal sensation and cannot be assumed to add clinical value beyond robotic gait training alone. Full article

Background: Lumbosacral discogenic syndrome (LSDS) is a common cause of low back pain (LBP) and lower limb pain (LLP) in athletes, often resulting in impaired sporting performance and delayed return to sport (RTS). Evidence regarding minimally invasive interventions, such as epidural perineural release (PNR), remains limited in athletic populations. Aim: This study aimed to compare outcomes following PNR with versus without balloon decompression neuroplasty in athletes with LSDS. Methods: We conducted a retrospective review of PNR performed between 2019 and 2024 for the treatment of LSDS among professional athletes. Demographic, clinical, and outcome data were collected from medical records and follow-up assessments. Pain intensity was assessed using the Numerical Rating Scale (NRS), while patient-reported outcomes were evaluated using the EuroQoL-5D (EQ-5D). Additional outcomes included pain-free walking, standing, and sitting durations, and self-reported health scores. Results: A total of 33 patients who had one intervention were included. Significant improvements were observed in all pain, functional, and quality-of-life outcomes following treatment (all p < 0.001). Maximum, minimum, and average pain intensity decreased from 7.5 ± 1.7 to 2.8 ± 2.2, 3.8 ± 2.3 to 0.3 ± 0.7, and 5.6 ± 1.7 to 1.5 ± 1.2, respectively. All EQ-5D domains and quality of sleep also improved significantly (all p < 0.001). Pain-free walking, standing, and sitting durations increased significantly, from 24.8 ± 23.2 to 49.7 ± 26.7 min, 18.4 ± 20.0 to 44.1 ± 23.1 min, and 25.5 ± 23.7 to 44.6 ± 24.9 min, respectively (all p < 0.001). Self-reported health scores improved from 51.9 ± 22.6 to 83.0 ± 14.3 (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Epidural perineural release, with or without balloon decompression neuroplasty, was associated by significant improvements in pain, functional capacity, and quality of life among athletes with LSDS refractory to conservative management. These findings suggest that PNR may be a promising minimally invasive treatment option; however, controlled prospective studies are required to establish its effectiveness and determine the additional benefit of balloon decompression. Full article

Background/Objectives: Consumption of New Zealand blackcurrant extract for 7 days has shown to reduce slowing of sprint speed in recreationally active males. Acute caffeine consumption has shown to improve repeated-sprint performance in a fatigued state. Thus, combined intake of New Zealand blackcurrants and caffeine may provide an additive or a synergistic effect to improve repeated-sprint performance, especially in fatigued individuals. Our study investigated the individual and additive effect of acute intake of New Zealand blackcurrant powder and caffeine on high-intensity intermittent running performance. Methods: Fourteen recreationally active males participated in a double-blind, randomised controlled crossover trial consisting of four experimental arms: placebo (PLA), New Zealand blackcurrant powder (NZBP), caffeine (CAFF), and NZBP + caffeine (NZBP + CAFF). Participants reported to the laboratory fasted and consumed a standardised breakfast with the study intervention 1 h before the exercise trial. Speed and distance covered for walking, sprinting, running, and jogging were assessed using the modified Loughborough Intermittent Shuttle Test (m-LIST). Blood lactate and free fatty acids (FFAs) levels, and perceptual measures (feeling scale, felt arousal scale and ratings of perceived exertion) were also assessed. Results: Caffeine intake increased average sprint speed (p = 0.045, η² = 0.345) and reduced sprint time (p = 0.030, η² = 0.463) during the m-LIST protocol. Ratings of perceived exertion were lower with caffeine intake (p = 0.014, η² = 0.381), while blood lactate concentration was higher (p = 0.001, η² = 0.761). Serum free fatty acids concentrations increased over time (p < 0.001, η² = 0.900), with a significant NZBP × time interaction (p = 0.005, η² = 0.433). No significant effects of NZBP alone or caffeine × NZBP interactions were observed for sprint performance outcomes. Conclusions: Acute NZBP did not improve repeated-sprint performance, either alone or when combined with caffeine. In contrast, caffeine-containing treatments were associated with improved sprint performance and lower perceived exertion. These findings suggest that caffeine, rather than NZBP, was responsible for the observed ergogenic responses, with no evidence of an additive benefit from acute combined supplementation. Full article

Neuromuscular dysfunction during the sit-to-walk (STW) task in Parkinson’s disease (PD) remains poorly understood. We aimed to analyze surface electromyography (sEMG) signals across STW phases using explainable machine learning (ML) and deep learning approaches in PD. Individuals with PD (n = 101) and healthy controls (n = 50) performed a standardized STW task while sEMG signals were recorded bilaterally from eight lower-limb muscles. These signals were preprocessed and segmented into three phases in the STW task. Feature-based ML models were compared with convolutional neural networks (CNN) trained on wavelet-transformed sEMG spectrograms. Explainable artificial intelligence methods identified physiologically interpretable neuromuscular patterns. STW phase 1 was the most sensitive interval for detecting PD-related neuromuscular abnormalities. Among the feature-based classifiers, the random forest model demonstrated the highest performance under five-fold cross-validation, with an accuracy of 77.5% and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curveof 0.795. SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis identified mean and median frequency during STW phase 1, left biceps femoris integrated sEMG amplitude, and left rectus femoris–biceps femoris short head co-contraction as major contributors to classification. CNN-based analyses revealed earlier and temporally concentrated activation patterns in individuals with PD, particularly in proximal muscles critical for momentum generation and postural stabilization. Overall, individuals with PD exhibited distinct temporal, spectral, and coordinative patterns of lower-limb neuromuscular activity during the STW transition. The findings support the potential of sEMG-based explainable AI for characterizing PD-associated neuromuscular patterns during functional transitions. Full article

Background: Multidimensional evidence on exercise participation and frailty in older adults is limited. Methods: This 12-week preference-based, non-randomized study included 145 participants (mean age 82.25 years): walking (n = 50), resistance training (n = 20), Traditional Chinese exercise (n = 23), and control (n = 52). Frailty was the primary outcome; physical-performance and molecular analyses were exploratory. Paired trajectories, baseline-stratified binary transitions, and adjusted associations were examined. Results: Among paired participants, pre-frailty/frailty prevalence changed from 70.0% to 60.0% with walking, 90.0% to 70.0% with resistance training, 50.0% to 63.6% with Traditional Chinese exercise (n = 22), and 50.0% to 69.2% in controls. Baseline status constrained opportunities for binary improvement or deterioration. All adjusted frailty risk-ratio confidence intervals included 1. Walking was associated with faster Timed Up and Go and Five-Yard Walk Test performance after correction across eight outcomes. Molecular changes also occurred in controls; intervention timing and potential laboratory-batch confounding limited between-group interpretation. No microbiome taxon survived multiplicity correction; small paired samples limited precision. Conclusions: Walking and resistance-training groups showed descriptively more favorable prevalence trajectories, but adjusted frailty comparisons remained inconclusive. These findings do not establish frailty prevention, modality superiority, or exercise-specific molecular mechanisms. Full article

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is highly prevalent among older adults and has been associated with impaired physical function and reduced exercise capacity. However, the relationships of binary MetS status and cumulative MetS component burden with different dimensions of functional capacity remain unclear. This cross-sectional study examined these associations and evaluated whether they were attenuated after adjustment for body mass index (BMI) among community-dwelling Thai older adults. A total of 182 participants aged ≥ 60 years were included. The outcomes represented complementary dimensions of functional capacity: lower-extremity functional performance assessed using the Five-Times Sit-to-Stand Test (5TSTS), stepping endurance assessed using the 2-Minute Step Test (2MST), cadence-derived estimated oxygen uptake, and externally paced walking capacity assessed using the Incremental Shuttle Walk Test (ISWT). Overall, 55 participants (30.2%) had MetS. Functional outcomes did not differ significantly between participants with and without MetS. After false-discovery-rate (FDR) correction, BMI was inversely correlated with ISWT distance, waist circumference was correlated with slower 5TSTS performance and shorter ISWT distance, and cumulative MetS component burden was inversely correlated with ISWT distance. Binary MetS status was not independently associated with any outcome after FDR correction. In Model 1, each additional MetS component was associated with a 0.27-s longer 5TSTS completion time (95% CI: 0.07 to 0.46; p = 0.008; q = 0.030) and a 27.80-m shorter ISWT distance (95% CI: −45.01 to −10.59; p = 0.002; q = 0.014). Both associations were attenuated and no longer statistically significant after additional adjustment for BMI. These findings suggest that cumulative MetS burden was associated with sit-to-stand and walking performance before BMI adjustment. Both associations were attenuated and no longer statistically significant after additional adjustment for BMI. Full article

Background: Progressive right ventricular dysfunction and elevated right atrial pressure, commonly observed in patients with Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension (CTEPH), may lead to systemic venous congestion, including hepatic congestion. The liver fibrosis index (FIB-4) has been proposed as a non-invasive marker of hepatic congestion and fibrosis. Data and evidence regarding the prevalence and clinical significance of elevated FIB-4 index values in patients with CTEPH and/or right-sided heart failure secondary to pulmonary hypertension (PH) are limited. Furthermore, it remains unclear whether interventional treatment with balloon pulmonary angioplasty (BPA), which improves right ventricular (RV) function and pulmonary hemodynamics and lowers pressure in right atrium and hepatic veins, also alleviates hepatic congestion and imitatively decreases the FIB-4 index. Aim: To investigate whether BPA-induced improvement in pulmonary hemodynamics and right ventricular function is accompanied by changes in the FIB-4 index in patients with CTEPH. Methods: This single-centre, retrospective analysis included 36 consecutive patients with CTEPH who underwent BPA and were followed at a tertiary PH centre between June 2020 and November 2025. All patients underwent comprehensive baseline evaluation prior to the first BPA session and repeated assessment after completion of the staged BPA treatment. Clinical evaluation included WHO functional class (WHO-FC) and the 6 min walk distance (6MWD). Right heart catheterization (RHC) was performed according to standards. Laboratory testing included N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), creatinine, aminotransferases (ALT, AST), complete blood count, and the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index. FIB-4 was classified into three categories: <1.3 indicating low FIB-4 category, 1.3–2.67 representing an indeterminate or borderline range, and >2.67 indicating high FIB-4 category. Change in FIB-4 status was assessed categorically. Improvement was defined as a downward shift of ≥1 category between baseline and follow-up; stability was defined as no categorical change; and worsening as an upward shift of ≥1 category. Results: Among the 36 patients in whom BPA treatment was initiated, 31 completed the planned BPA sessions, underwent the final assessment, and were eligible for the current analysis. This resulted in a median decrease in mRAP of −3 (−5 to −1) mmHg, in mPAP of −9 (−13 to −1) mmHg, and in PVR of −1.7 (−3.9 to −0.3) WU, accompanied by an increase in CI of 0.24 (−0.15 to 0.71) L/min/m² and a reduction in NT-proBNP of −317 (−1553 to −30) pg/mL. In parallel, FIB-4 decreased by a median of −0.20 (−0.50 to −0.07). At baseline, 7 patients had low FIB-4 values (<1.3), 16 had indeterminate values (1.3–2.67), and 8 had high FIB-4 values (>2.67). All patients with baseline FIB-4 <1.3 remained in the low category. Among the 24 patients with baseline FIB-4 ≥1.3, 8 (33.3%; exact 95% CI 15.6–55.3%) improved by one category, 14 (58.3%) remained stable, and 2 (8.3%) worsened (exact two-sided sign test among patients with categorical change, p = 0.109). In the exploratory binary analysis of improvement versus no improvement, with stable and worsening cases classified as no improvement, the exact one-sided McNemar test yielded p = 0.0039. In an exploratory multivariate linear regression analysis, only the change in NT-proBNP was associated with a concurrent change in FIB-4 (p = 0.0375). Conclusions: In our study, the FIB-4 index was elevated in 77.4% of patients with CTEPH. BPA is an effective procedure that markedly improves hemodynamics and alleviates right heart failure. In addition, FIB-4 category in every third patient who had elevated FIB-4 decreased following BPA. A reduction in NT-proBNP, a marker of right ventricular dysfunction, was the only variable associated with concurrent FIB-4 change. Full article

Background: Chronic refractory angina is a disabling syndrome of persistent ischemic symptoms despite guideline-directed medical therapy and, in many patients, prior coronary revascularization. Enhanced external counterpulsation [EECP] is a noninvasive therapy that augments diastolic coronary perfusion, reduces systolic afterload, improves endothelial function, and may promote collateral recruitment. Although developed for obstructive coronary artery disease, its vascular and microvascular effects may also be relevant to contemporary ischemic syndromes, including ischemia with non-obstructive coronary arteries [INOCA] and myocardial infarction with non-obstructive coronary arteries [MINOCA]. A contemporary quantitative synthesis of EECP across angina burden, functional capacity, quality of life, and safety is therefore warranted. Methods: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized trials and prospective studies of adults with chronic refractory angina treated with EECP versus standard medical therapy, usual care, or sham EECP. Outcomes were Canadian Cardiovascular Society [CCS] angina class, nitroglycerin use, the 6 min walk test [6MWT], treadmill exercise testing, quality-of-life measures, adverse events, and treatment withdrawal. Because the eligible evidence combined sham-controlled randomized trials with single-arm and registry cohorts, pooled estimates were derived using random-effects models and are interpreted in that context. Results: Twenty-six studies were included. EECP was associated with improvement across every prespecified domain: CCS angina class [standardized mean difference [SMD] −1.56; 95% confidence interval [CI], −2.54 to −0.58; p = 0.002], nitroglycerin use [SMD −2.41; 95% CI, −3.34 to −1.49; p < 0.00001], 6MWT [SMD 1.59; 95% CI, 0.64 to 2.54; p = 0.001], treadmill exercise testing [SMD 1.03; 95% CI, 0.15 to 1.91; p = 0.02], and quality of life [SMD 1.12; 95% CI, 0.71 to 1.53; p < 0.00001]. Heterogeneity was high for all pooled outcomes [I² ≥ 79%], and the largest effect sizes were driven substantially by uncontrolled before–after data. Conclusions: EECP is associated with statistically significant and clinically meaningful reductions in angina burden and nitrate use, with parallel improvements in objective exercise capacity and patient-reported quality of life among patients with chronic refractory angina. These findings support EECP as a reasonable adjunctive option for appropriately selected patients who remain symptomatic despite conventional treatment, while the magnitude of heterogeneity and the contribution of non-randomized data temper the certainty of the pooled estimates and underscore the need for standardized protocols, contemporary sham-controlled trials, and dedicated investigation in INOCA and MINOCA populations. Full article

An anticoagulated patient with unilateral thigh swelling may have more than one process. A 79-year-old man receiving long-term warfarin for atrial fibrillation and a previous ischemic stroke presented with 3 days of atraumatic left-thigh pain, swelling, and inability to walk. His international normalized ratio was 6.41. Computed tomography (CT) showed an approximately 4 cm × 7 cm intramuscular hematoma in the left vastus intermedius. Duplex ultrasonography additionally demonstrated femoropopliteal venous thrombosis causing partial occlusion, with absent spectral flow in the sampled femoral vein segment and residual popliteal venous flow. Warfarin was initially withheld without reversal therapy. CT-guided drainage was performed after the international normalized ratio decreased to 1.44, and follow-up CT angiography showed no active bleeding. Edoxaban 60 mg once daily was started 8 days after drainage. Following rehabilitation, the patient was discharged in stable condition and was able to walk independently. These images illustrate that hemorrhage and venous thrombosis can coexist despite supratherapeutic anticoagulation; CT and duplex ultrasonography provide complementary information that can prevent diagnostic anchoring and guide the sequence of source control and anticoagulation resumption. Full article

Adaptive treadmills (ATMs) that change speed based on the users’ gait mechanics can allow for healthy stride-to-stride variability observed during overground walking while maintaining the benefits of traditional treadmill training for gait rehabilitation. To enable unilateral modifications, the purpose of this study was to develop and validate an adaptive split-belt treadmill (sATM) that updates the speed of each belt of the treadmill based on the user’s propulsion and position to enable preferential targeting of unilateral gait mechanics. Fourteen young, healthy participants completed five trials at their comfortable walking speed on an existing tied-belt adaptive treadmill (ATM) and sATM with unilateral and bilateral modifications. The participants maintained similar propulsion and belt speeds between treadmills and belts for bilateral modifications. As a group, participants showed no change in propulsion and differences in walking speed for the unilateral modification, demonstrating successful enabling of unilateral modifications. Our results suggest that the sATM may require further tuning to encourage unilateral control strategies. The present study provided a proof of concept of a novel treadmill controller that can enable unilateral modifications, performed technical validation by demonstrating equivalence to an existing tied-belt ATM, and explored unilateral propulsion targeting to demonstrate unilateral modifications. Full article

This study examined the effect of breathing rate (BR) on prefrontal cortical (PFC) activation during single-task and dual-task (e.g., Trail Walking Task (TWT)) conditions in a diverse aging population. We hypothesized that higher BR would be associated with increased PFC activation, particularly during dual-task walking. In this cross-sectional study, 45 adults (mean age 50.31 ± 20.19 years; 27 females) walked on an instrumented treadmill at a self-selected pace under single-task and TWT conditions. Resting BR was measured using a smart shirt, and functional near-infrared spectroscopy assessed PFC oxygenated hemoglobin (HbO₂) and deoxygenated hemoglobin (Hb) during TWTA (numbers only) and TWTB (numbers and letters). Linear mixed-effects models evaluated the effects of BR, task, and their interaction on PFC activation, controlling for age and cardiorespiratory fitness (VO₂ max). The results showed significant differences in Hb and HbO₂ between single- and dual-task conditions across BR levels. Individuals with higher BR exhibited greater PFC activation during TWT, whereas lower BR was associated with reduced activation and more efficient attentional resource allocation. BR was not associated with walking speed. These findings suggest that higher BR reflects increased neural effort during dual-task walking and highlight breathing as a potential modifiable factor influencing cognitive-motor performance and fall risk. Full article

As agricultural commodities become increasingly financialised, reliable soybean futures forecasts are important for risk management and market monitoring. This study examines the main No. 1 soybean futures contract listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange using a multi-source daily dataset spanning from February 2015 to December 2025. Ten predictors cover domestic price-volume information, cross-market transmission, the macro-financial environment, and supply–demand fundamentals. To address potential look-ahead bias, the forecasting protocol is strictly causal: monthly fundamentals are lagged by one month before daily alignment; Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) settlement information is matched only from dates strictly preceding the corresponding Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) date; Min-Max scalers are fitted on the training sample only; and wavelet denoising, when used, is performed separately within each 60-trading-day historical input window. Models are trained on target dates through 2022, validated on 2023–2024, and evaluated on the fully held-out 2025 sample. Five fixed random seeds, a random-walk benchmark, directional accuracy, and Diebold–Mariano (DM) tests are used to assess robustness. The results show that thediscrete wavelet transform–bidirectional long short-term memory with attention (DWT-BiLSTM-Attention) specification is sensitive to random initialisation and has significantly higher squared forecast loss than the random walk for the five-seed mean forecast. Among the neural-network specifications considered, the DWT-LSTM model provides the lowest mean root mean square error (RMSE) and the smallest RMSE dispersion across seeds, although its predictive accuracy is not statistically different from the random walk. The ablation results further show that causal DWT and the ten-feature specification do not deliver robust incremental gains, while the incremental effects of attention and bidirectionality are not statistically significant. These findings highlight the importance of leakage-controlled preprocessing, strong naive benchmarks, and repeated-seed evaluation in financial time-series forecasting. Full article

Whether machine-learning models extract predictive signal from ETF returns across markets at different efficiency levels and whether statistical accuracy translates into trading value, remain contested. We examine this for iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ) and iShares Core S&P 500 (IVV) from January 2010 to July 2026, training through December 2022 and testing thereafter. Random Forest, XGBoost with random search, XGBoost with Bayesian optimization, LSTM, GRU and an LSTM + XGBoost ensemble, are compared against historical mean, random walk, and AR(1) benchmarks at one-day (h = 1), five-day (h = 5) and monthly (h = 21) horizons using ten technical indicators. Every model is also evaluated against the classifier that predicts the majority class, and risk-adjusted performance is reported with bootstrap intervals. No model exceeds that trivial classifier in any combination examined. The two markets fail by distinct mechanisms: collapse onto the majority class in the developed market, and dispersed but unprofitable signals in the emerging one. Under Diebold–Mariano tests with autocorrelation-consistent variance and false-discovery control, no model is superior to the historical mean. No strategy outperforms Buy-and-Hold, and in the emerging market, no Sharpe ratio is distinguishable from zero. Where directional significance does appear, at the monthly horizon in the emerging market, it delivers no economic value. Together, these results argue for evaluating financial forecasting models simultaneously on regression metrics, economic performance, and regime stability rather than on any single criterion. Full article