Search Results (39)

Human activity-driven territorial spatial competition profoundly affects ecosystem service value (ESV). However, the spatiotemporal patterns of “urban–agricultural–ecological space” (UAES) competition in China’s key agricultural regions and their quantitative effects on ESV have not been systematically investigated. Therefore, this study first constructed a “UAES competition–ESV response” analytical framework and selected Henan Province, a representative key agricultural region in China, as the study area. Subsequently, utilizing land-use remote sensing monitoring data from five periods (1980 to 2020), this study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal competition characteristics of UAES in Henan Province and its impact on ESV using GIS spatial analysis method, the Geo-informatic Tupu method, and improved ESV evaluation model. The results indicate that from 1980 to 2020, Henan Province experienced a gradual shrinkage of agricultural space, rapid urban expansion, and a slight decline in ecological space. Urban encroachment on agricultural land is the primary spatial competition manifestation, which is most pronounced in the core area of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration. This urban expansion and subsequent agricultural encroachment on ecological land are key ESV loss drivers, causing losses of USD 812.41 million and USD 1663.24 million, respectively. The indirect ESV loss from cropland displacement substantially exceeded direct losses from urban expansion. This study provides critical insights into the trade-offs between urban expansion, agricultural development, and ecological protection in agricultural regions undergoing urbanization. The findings inform spatial planning and ecological conservation strategies in Henan Province and other similar agricultural regions. Full article

Currently, many industrial cities in Northeast China are grappling with a surge in brownfields, population loss, and environmental degradation, largely driven by industrial decline. Consequently, brownfield regeneration has emerged as a critical pathway for exploring sustainable development in shrinking cities. This study investigates the regeneration potential of urban brownfields against the backdrop of population shrinkage and aging. Under the framework of Ecosystem Service Theory, this study adopts the Fulaerji District of Qiqihar City as a representative case, integrating its four key categories of ecosystem services into a three-dimensional “economic–social–environmental” evaluation framework. This approach facilitates the transformation of Ecosystem Service Theory from a conventional post-regeneration evaluation tool into a pre-regeneration framework for assessing potential and determining site prioritization. A tripartite evaluation system was constructed, integrating economic vitality (e.g., the population shrinkage index, the proportion of the elderly population, and transportation accessibility), social culture (e.g., the industrial heritage proximity index), and ecological regulation functions (e.g., proximity of green spaces and importance of ecosystem services). Leveraging multi-source geospatial data, land surveys, and field inspections, 12 candidate brownfield sites were identified. GIS spatial analysis and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) were employed to decipher their spatial distribution patterns and comprehensive potential grades. The findings reveal the following: (1) The evaluation results exhibit distinct spatial characteristics: high-potential sites, clustered near transport hubs and policy-supported zones, demonstrate multi-dimensional advantages, while low-potential sites, constrained by aging demographics, poor accessibility, and ecological vulnerability, are predominantly located on the urban periphery. (2) Correlation analysis between potential grades and various evaluation indicators, combined with a cross-comparison of population shrinkage levels and average values of other evaluation indicators across different potential grades, reveals that neither the population shrinkage index nor the elderly population proportion exerts a systematic negative impact on industrial brownfield regeneration potential. This finding indicates that within specific urban development contexts, brownfield regeneration potential is influenced more by structural factors such as locational conditions, policy support, and ecological service functions than by singular demographic trends. This research provides both theoretical foundation and decision-making support for differentiated brownfield regeneration and spatial governance in population-shrinking cities. Full article

The Yellow River Delta is one of China’s most ecologically fragile regions, experiencing prolonged pressures from rapid urbanization and ecological degradation. Existing research, however, has predominantly focused on constructing ecological security patterns under single scenarios, with limited systematic multi-scenario comparisons and insufficient statistical support. To address this gap, this study proposes an integrated framework of “land use simulation—multi-scenario ecological security pattern construction—statistical comparative analysis.” Using the PLUS model, three scenarios were constructed—Business-as-Usual (BAU), Priority Urban Development (PUD), and Priority Ecological Protection (PEP)—to simulate land use changes by 2040. Habitat quality assessment, Multi-Scale Pattern Analysis (MSPA), landscape connectivity, and circuit theory were integrated to identify ecological source areas, corridors, and nodes, incorporating a novel hexagonal grid partitioning method. Statistical significance was evaluated using parametric tests (ANOVA, t-test) and non-parametric tests (permutation test, PERMANOVA). Analysis indicated significant differences in ecological security patterns across scenarios. Under the PEP scenario, ecological source areas reached 3580.42 km² (12.39% of the total Yellow River Delta), corresponding to a 14.85% increase relative to the BAU scenario and a 32.79% increase relative to the PUD scenario. These gains are primarily attributable to stringent wetland and forestland protection policies, which successfully limited the encroachment of construction land into ecological space. Habitat quality and connectivity markedly improved, resulting in the highest ecosystem stability. By contrast, the PUD scenario experienced an 851.46 km² expansion of construction land, resulting in the shrinkage of ecological source areas and intensified fragmentation, consequently increasing ecological security risks. The BAU scenario demonstrated moderate outcomes, with a moderately balanced spatial configuration. In conclusion, this study introduces an ecological restoration strategy of “five zones, one belt, one center, and multiple corridors” based on multi-scenario ecological security patterns. This provides a scientific foundation for ecological restoration and territorial spatial planning in the Yellow River Delta, while the proposed multi-scenario statistical comparison method provides a replicable methodological framework for ecological security pattern research in other delta regions. Full article

The synergy between carbon neutrality and urbanization is essential for effective climate governance and socio-ecological intelligent transition. From the perspective of coupled urban dynamic evolution and carbon metabolism systems, this study integrates the Sen-MK trend test and the geographical detector model to explore the spatial–temporal differentiation patterns and driving mechanisms of carbon balance across 337 prefecture-level cities in China from 2012 to 2022. The results reveal a spatial–temporal mismatch between carbon emissions and carbon storage, forming an asymmetric carbon metabolism pattern characterized by “expansion-dominated and shrinkage-dissipative” dynamics. Carbon compensation rates exhibit a west–high to east–low gradient distribution, with hotspots of expansionary cities clustered in the southwest, while shrinking cities display a dispersed pattern from the northwest to the northeast. Based on the four-quadrant carbon balance classification, expansionary cities are mainly located in the “high economic–low ecological” quadrant, whereas shrinking cities concentrate in the “low economic–high ecological” quadrant. Industrial structure and population scale serve as the dual-core drivers of carbon compensation. Expansionary cities are positively regulated by urbanization rates, while shrinking cities are negatively constrained by energy intensity. These findings suggest that differentiated regulation strategies can help optimize carbon governance within national territorial space. Full article

Although measurements of urban shrinkage in China have received much attention, most have relied on statistical yearbook data based on political–administrative city boundaries, and remote-sensing-based quantification is mainly one-dimensional. This has caused problems in incorporating rural areas and spatiotemporal inconsistencies, as well as an inadequate understanding, which has subsequently resulted in an inaccurate shrinkage identification. This study merely utilized the latest multisensory and time-series remote sensing data, including nighttime light, land use, and population grids, to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of multidimensional shrinkage based on the county-level urban entity mapping of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations (YRD-UAs) from 2003 to 2023. County-level urban entities were acquired from a pioneering mapping effort that utilized city-specific commuting distance and land use maps. The results demonstrated that urban entities in 215 counties grew at a generally slowing pace. The degree of economic, population, and space shrinkage was mainly slight, and the shrinking trajectory was dominated by temporary shrinkage. Most counties experienced population shrinkage in their coastal-oriented distribution, whereas economic shrinkage affected the fewest counties, with the lowest spatial clustering occurring northward. Population shrinkage also displayed the highest spatial autocorrelation, but its agglomeration weakened against space shrinkage clustering. This study concluded that the exclusive utilization of remote sensing products to measure urban-entity-based multidimensional shrinkage reduced the uncertainty associated with rural area inclusion and resulted in satisfactory assessment accuracy. The spatiotemporal patterns of multidimensional shrinkage suggested strengthening ecological land allocation within urban entities across the entire region, implementing polycentric development strategies in the north, as well as enhancing county-level economic governance in the northwest. This study presents a spatiotemporally comparable methodology for quantifying the multidimensional shrinking of county-level urban entities at a large scale and contributes to further optimizing the developments of YRD-UAs. Full article

This study investigates the factors influencing urban residents’ interest in and visits to forests and explores strategies to promote forest space utilization. A survey was conducted among 5000 residents of Tokyo’s 23 wards, one of the world’s most densely populated urban areas, using an online questionnaire. The collected data were analyzed using least absolute shrinkage, selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression, and piecewise structural equation modeling (pSEM). The analysis revealed that nature experiences in current travel destinations, particularly scenic walks, had a significant positive effect on both forest interest (standardized path coefficient = 0.19) and forest visits (0.30). These experiences were also significantly influenced by childhood nature experiences and frequent local walks. Conversely, factors negatively affecting forest visits included the lack of private vehicle ownership (−0.13) and increasing age (−0.21). While previous studies suggest that older individuals tend to visit natural areas more frequently, our findings indicate the opposite trend. One possible explanation is the low car ownership rate among Tokyo residents, which may limit accessibility to forests. These findings provide valuable insights for policy design, particularly regarding strategies to enhance forest accessibility and engagement among urban populations. Full article

The escalating conflict between ecosystem degradation and the rising demands of humanity has rendered the attainment of a scientific balance between ecosystem services and human well-being a critical concern in research on human–environment coupling and sustainable development. Metropolitan areas are pivotal in long-term sustainable development strategies and regional equity due to rapid urbanization and the tension between ecosystem degradation and human well-being. This study proposes a novel perspective, transitioning from a “cascade” to a “coupling” approach in examining the relationship between ecosystem services and human well-being. Taking the Xi’an metropolitan area as the research subject, the research employs a coupling coordination degree model to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of their relationship across multiple scales. The key findings of the paper are as follows: (1) We found a severe shrinkage in the ecosystem service value (2000–2020). The ecosystem services in the Xi’an metropolitan area were significantly compromised under the pressure of homogenized human well-being improvement, resulting in weak coupling and coordination between the two. (2) There was a spatial imbalance between supply and demand. Ecosystem service values displayed a core-to-periphery increasing spatial pattern, while human well-being levels exhibited a core-to-periphery decreasing distribution, indicating a marked spatial mismatch. (3) Diverse coupling dynamics within the region were identified. Driven by factors such as the resource distribution, land use, scale effects, and benefit allocation, the coupling relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being varied across development stages and contexts. Ecosystem services functioned as either flexible facilitators or constraints on human well-being improvement. This research provides a blueprint for sustainable development, offering a framework to balance urban growth with ecological health while ensuring equitable well-being across the Xi’an metropolitan area. The study highlights the need for strict ecological space protection, enhanced urban development quality, and integrated human–environment system management. Efforts should focus on minimizing land use trade-offs and spatial competition, strengthening spatial synergy in supply–demand coupling, and promoting sustainable regional development. Full article

China’s rapid economic growth has increased tensions between production, living, and ecological spaces (PLES), making sustainable land-use planning difficult. Therefore, PLES evolution and processes are a focus of current research. Remote sensing data with land-use transition matrices, centroid migration, standard deviation ellipses, spatial autocorrelation, and geographic detectors were used to study the dynamics of PLES in Hunan Province from 1990 to 2020, elucidate its mechanisms and main influencing factors, and provide a comprehensive understanding of its evolutionary characteristics. The main conclusions of our analysis are as follows: (1) Ecological space was the dominant land-use type, while production space increased, putting strain on natural areas. (2) Living space increased by 40.73% over three decades, mostly comprising manufacturing space, highlighting urban expansion. (3) Despite land-use changes, Loudi City’s PLES centroid remained central. (4) Standard deviation ellipses showed spatial shrinkage with directional stability, implying enhanced land usage within borders rather than outward growth. (5) The geographic detector analysis showed that the GDP, population density, slope, and elevation influenced these spatial changes. Economic prosperity drove urban expansion, but the slope and elevation limited development to accessible locations. These findings provide policymakers with essential information for balancing urbanization and ecological preservation and provide a case study for sustainable PLES design in rapidly developing regions. Full article

Urban shrinkage is a significant challenge to sustainable urban development. To date, the existing research has yet to analyze urban shrinkage at a fine-scale level. This study addresses this gap by employing nighttime light (NTL) data, which, due to its strong correlation with human activity and high spatial–temporal resolution, offers a robust approach for micro-scale population estimation. This paper aims to explore the characteristics and formation mechanisms of urban shrinkage spaces in Guangzhou, using NTL data and applying ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models. The correlational analysis reveals a marked improvement in model fit with GWR (R² = 0.91) compared with OLS (R² = 0.63), confirming the predictive power of NTL-based GWR for population mapping and the spatial delineation of urban shrinkage. We demonstrate that urban shrinkage spaces in Guangzhou are predominantly distributed in the outer suburbs, while urban growth is concentrated within the urban core area and inner suburbs. The formation of urban shrinkage in Liwan District examined as a case study, is primarily influenced by market factors, government actions, and regulatory constraints—a constellation of factors likely generalizable with other contexts of urban shrinkage. A comprehensive understanding of urban shrinkage at a fine-scale level is imperative for policy makers to optimize urban land use planning and mitigate the factors contributing to shrinkage space, thereby promoting sustainable urban development. Full article

Compacted soils in urban areas suffer from reduced porosity, impairing plant growth, water infiltration, and gas exchange, thus exacerbating other potential environmental issues. Amending soil with organic matter can reduce bulk density and increase permeability, thereby enhancing soil fertility and functionality. This study evaluated the effects of two organic soil amendments (i.e., chipped cork and municipal waste compost) on soil functionality and the physiology of Quercus ilex trees, following a soil compaction treatment. Five soil treatments were compared: control (no compaction and amendments), soil compaction without amendments, and compaction with amendments including cork, compost, or a combination of both. Soil and plant physiological responses were analyzed during the summer months, focusing on soil gas exchange, temperature, moisture, microbial respiration, enzymatic activity, leaf gas exchange, leaf chlorophyll fluorescence, chlorophyll content, and maximum daily trunk shrinkage. The results showed that amended soils exhibited increased soil gas exchanges, lower temperatures, and higher microbial activity than non-amended compacted soils, thereby reducing the detrimental effects of soil compaction on plant physiology. These findings suggested that incorporating organic amendments into urban soils, especially those subjected to frequent trampling, could make them more resistant/resilient to compaction, supporting healthier green spaces and more sustainable urban ecosystems. Full article

Urban shrinkage has emerged as a worldwide concern, which is increasingly prevalent in developing countries like China, particularly in medium-sized cities (MSCs). Compared to large cities and counties, MSCs find themselves in a national policy blind spot and have been neglected both in policy and research. Previous studies, based on population changes, have shown that urban shrinkage in China is not severe. However, urban shrinkage is not just about population decline, and it has not been adequately discussed from a multi-dimensional perspective. This paper adopts a multi-dimensional model, considering population, economy, and space dimensions to analyze shrinkage patterns in 164 MSCs in China from 2010 to 2020. Findings reveal that 6.1% of MSCs experienced population shrinkage, and 24.4% faced shrinkage in economic or spatial dimensions. Shrinking MSCs are spatially distributed in the Northeast as well as in the areas surrounding large cities. Industrial restructuring, job losses, and healthcare disparities contribute to urban shrinkage, and the impact of aging will be further felt. As large cities consistently attract population and resources and digitization has dramatically affected population mobility, more MSCs will shrink in the future. This paper contributes to the understanding of shrinkage of MSCs among scholars and policymakers, urging a shift towards more balanced and digital urban governance. Full article

While numerous studies have employed deep learning and high-resolution remote sensing to predict future land use and land cover (LULC) changes, no study has integrated these predictive tools with the current urban planning context to find a potential issues for sustainability. This study addresses this gap by examining the planning context of Busan Metropolitan City (BMC) and analyzing the paradoxical objectives within the city’s 2040 Master Plan and the subordinate 2030 Busan Master Plan for Parks and Greenbelts. Although the plans advocate for increased green areas to enhance urban sustainability and social wellbeing, they simultaneously support policies that may lead to a reduction in these areas due to urban development. Using the CA-ANN model in the MOLUSCE plugin, a deep learning-based LULC change analysis, we forecast further urban expansion and continued shrinkage of natural green areas. During 1980–2010, Busan Metropolitan City (BMC) underwent high-speed urban expansion, wherein the urbanized areas almost doubled and agricultural lands and green areas, including forests and grassland, reduced considerably. Forecasts for the years 2010–2040 show continued further expansion of urban areas at the expense of areas for agriculture and green areas, including forest and grasslands. Given the master plans, these highlight a critical tension between urban growth and sustainability. Despite the push for more green spaces, the replacement of natural landscapes with artificial parks and green areas may threaten long-term sustainability. In view of these apparently conflicting goals, the urban planning framework for BMC would have to take up increasingly stronger conservation policies and adaptive planning practices that consider environmental preservation on a par with economic development in the light of the planning context and trajectory of urbanization. Full article

The inner core of Sombor, known as “Venac”, is probably the best-preserved one among medium-sized cities in Serbia. The stagnation of Sombor during the 20th century and its urban shrinkage in the 21st century have prevented significant transformations of the core, enabling its preservation under state protection as an urban heritage site. However, the recent rise of cultural tourism has triggered urban regeneration. As the city is still unprepared for this change, this regeneration has mostly omitted the inner core. Realising this, local representatives and experts have started rethinking innovative approaches to its regeneration, including the concept of Albergo Diffuso. This sustainable concept is created to revive the historic cores of small, shrinking cities and towns. Basically, it represents a hotel situated in several old buildings dispersed throughout a historic urban fabric, fitting perfectly into the regeneration of Venac. However, the current lack of precise spatial indicators and thresholds makes their incorporation into the planning process challenging. Considering this, this study focuses on the current spatial development of tourism in Venac, analysing the elements that would support and facilitate the application of this concept in the future. This article also proposes a set of new planning measures to support a strategically organised approach—from the emphasis on urban reuse and physical renewal to multileveled linking of basic concept conditions to the prioritization of pedestrian-friendly places and the application of innovative urban design in open public spaces. By connecting the selected Albergo Diffuso approach with spatial development and its analysis, this study also contributes to the spatial imprint of the concept’s implementation. Full article

Rapid urbanization is universally acknowledged to degrade ecosystem services, posing significant threats to human well-being. However, the effects of urban shrinkage, a global phenomenon and a counterpart to urbanization, on ecosystem services (ESs) remain unclear. This study focuses on China’s Rust Belt during the period from 2000 to 2020, constructing a comprehensive analytical framework based on long-term remote sensing data to reveal the temporal and spatial patterns of ESs and their associations with cities experiencing varying degrees of shrinkage. It employs a random forest (RF) model and a Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) model to measure and visualize the significance and thresholds of socioeconomic factors influencing changes in ESs. Our findings highlight the following: (1) Since 2010, the three provinces of Northeast China (TPNC) have begun to shrink comprehensively, with the degree of shrinkage intensifying over time. Resource-based cities have all experienced contraction. (2) Regional urban shrinkage has been found to enhance the overall provision capacity of ESs, with the most significant improvements in cities undergoing continuous shrinkage. (3) The impact of the same socioeconomic drivers varies across cities with different levels of shrinkage; increasing green-space ratios and investing more in public welfare have been identified as effective measures to enhance ESs. (4) Threshold analysis indicates that the stability of the tertiary sector’s proportion is critically important for enhancing ESs in cities undergoing intermittent shrinkage. An increase of 10% to 15% in this sector can allow continuously shrinking cities to balance urban development with ecological improvements. This research highlights the positive aspects of urban shrinkage, demonstrating its ability to enhance the provision capacity of ESs. It offers new insights into the protection and management of regional ecosystems and the urban transformation of the three eastern provinces. Full article

The rapid urbanization process has brought about the shrinkage of rural space as a typical issue. Nevertheless, due to the dearth of effective assessment approaches, the patterns of rural spatial shrinkage remain poorly grasped. This study intends to establish a quantitative assessment model to scientifically disclose the spatiotemporal characteristics and mechanisms of rural spatial shrinkage. The “Population-Industry-Function-Land” (PIFL) assessment model has been rigorously constructed, encompassing eight assessment indices, such as the ratio of permanent residents, rural population density, and the rate of abandoned cultivated land. The model was adopted to conduct an analysis of the spatial shrinkage scenarios of the 18 administrative villages in Panxi Town spanning from 2011 to 2021. The results indicate that the temporal dimension of rural spatial shrinkage exhibits an accelerating trend, with discernible declines or increases in the ratio of permanent residents, rate of the elderly labor force, and housing vacancy rate. The shrinkage of rural spaces displays spatial heterogeneity, with more pronounced shrinkage characteristics observed in villages located further from the central town. According to the comprehensive shrinkage index, the villages are categorized into four types: relative shrinkage (0.2447 ≤ Z ≤ 0.2462), mild shrinkage (0.2463 ≤ Z ≤ 0.4423), moderate shrinkage (0.4424 ≤ Z ≤ 0.6125), and severe shrinkage (0.6126 ≤ Z ≤ 0.7988). The research findings possess significant reference value for the governance of rural spatial shrinkage. Full article