Search Results (67)

This study explores the migration intentions of university students—representing the potential creative class—in Erzurum, a medium-sized city in eastern Turkey experiencing shrinkage. Within the theoretical framework of shrinking cities, it investigates how economic, social, physical, and personal factors influence students’ post-graduation stay or leave decisions. Survey data from 742 Architecture and Fine Arts students at Atatürk University were analyzed using factor analysis, logistic regression, and correlation to identify key migration drivers. Findings reveal that, in addition to economic concerns such as limited job opportunities and low income, personal development opportunities and social engagement also play a decisive role. In particular, the perception of limited chances for skill enhancement and the belief that Erzurum is not a good place to meet people emerged as the strongest predictors of migration intentions. These results suggest that members of the creative class are influenced not only by economic incentives but also by broader urban experiences related to self-growth and social connectivity. This study highlights spatial inequalities in access to cultural, educational, and social infrastructure, raising important questions about spatial justice in shrinking urban contexts. This paper contributes to the literature on shrinking cities by highlighting creative youth in mid-sized Global South cities. It suggests smart shrinkage strategies focused on creative sector development, improved quality of life, and inclusive planning to retain young talent and support sustainable urban revitalization. Full article

With the global economic restructuring and the consequent population mobility, urban shrinkage has become a common phenomenon. The Qinling–Daba Mountains, a zone with a key ecological function in China, have long experienced population decline and functional degradation. Clarifying the dynamics and influencing factors of urban shrinkage plays a vital role in supporting the sustainable development of the region. This study, using permanent resident population growth rates and nighttime light data, classified cities in the region into four spatial patterns: expansion–growth, intensive growth, expansion–shrinkage, and intensive shrinkage. It further examined the spatial characteristics of shrinkage across four periods (2005–2010, 2010–2015, 2015–2020, and 2020–2022). A Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model was applied to examine core influencing factors and their spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The results indicated the following: (1) The dominant pattern of urban shrinkage in the Qinling–Daba Mountains shifted from expansion–growth to expansion–shrinkage, highlighting the paradox of population decline alongside continued spatial expansion. (2) Three critical indicators significantly influenced urban shrinkage: the number of students enrolled in general secondary schools (X₅), the per capita disposable income of urban residents (X₇), and the number of commercial and residential service facilities (X₁₂), with their effects exhibiting significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Temporally, X₁₂ was the most influential factor in 2005 and 2010, while in 2015, 2020, and 2022, X₅ and X₇ became the dominant factors. Spatially, X₇ significantly affected both eastern and western areas; X₅’s influence was most pronounced in the west; and X₁₂ had the greatest impact in the east. This study explored the patterns and underlying drivers of urban shrinkage in underdeveloped areas, aiming to inform sustainable development practices in regions facing comparable challenges. Full article

Since the early 21st century, urban shrinkage has become a significant global phenomenon. Dongguan, in Guangdong Province, China, is known as a “world factory”. It experienced notable urban shrinkage following the 2008 financial crisis. However, the city demonstrated remarkable recovery and ongoing development in subsequent years. On that basis, this study focuses on the following three points: (1) identifying the spatiotemporal factors contributing to the growth and shrinkage of manufacturing cities, taking Dongguan as an example; (2) explaining the influencing factors of the growth and shrinkage of Dongguan City during three critical periods, 2008–2014 (post-crisis), 2015–2019 (as machinery replaced human work), and 2020–2023 (the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery); and (3) selecting representative towns and streets for on-site observation and investigation, analyzing the measures they have taken to cope with growth and shrinkage during different periods. The key findings include the following: (1) The spatial dynamics of growth and shrinkage in Dongguan show significant temporal patterns, with traditional manufacturing areas shrinking from 2008 to 2014, central urban areas recovering from 2015 to 2019, and renewed shrinkage from 2020 to 2023. However, some regions maintained stability through strategic innovations. (2) Various factors, particularly industrial upgrading and technological innovation, drove the urban dynamics, enhancing economic resilience. (3) The case study of Houjie Town revealed successful adaptive mechanisms supported by policy while facing challenges like labor mismatches and inadequate R&D investment. This research offers insights for improving urban resilience and promoting sustainable development in Dongguan. Full article

The escalating conflict between ecosystem degradation and the rising demands of humanity has rendered the attainment of a scientific balance between ecosystem services and human well-being a critical concern in research on human–environment coupling and sustainable development. Metropolitan areas are pivotal in long-term sustainable development strategies and regional equity due to rapid urbanization and the tension between ecosystem degradation and human well-being. This study proposes a novel perspective, transitioning from a “cascade” to a “coupling” approach in examining the relationship between ecosystem services and human well-being. Taking the Xi’an metropolitan area as the research subject, the research employs a coupling coordination degree model to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of their relationship across multiple scales. The key findings of the paper are as follows: (1) We found a severe shrinkage in the ecosystem service value (2000–2020). The ecosystem services in the Xi’an metropolitan area were significantly compromised under the pressure of homogenized human well-being improvement, resulting in weak coupling and coordination between the two. (2) There was a spatial imbalance between supply and demand. Ecosystem service values displayed a core-to-periphery increasing spatial pattern, while human well-being levels exhibited a core-to-periphery decreasing distribution, indicating a marked spatial mismatch. (3) Diverse coupling dynamics within the region were identified. Driven by factors such as the resource distribution, land use, scale effects, and benefit allocation, the coupling relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being varied across development stages and contexts. Ecosystem services functioned as either flexible facilitators or constraints on human well-being improvement. This research provides a blueprint for sustainable development, offering a framework to balance urban growth with ecological health while ensuring equitable well-being across the Xi’an metropolitan area. The study highlights the need for strict ecological space protection, enhanced urban development quality, and integrated human–environment system management. Efforts should focus on minimizing land use trade-offs and spatial competition, strengthening spatial synergy in supply–demand coupling, and promoting sustainable regional development. Full article

China’s rapid economic growth has increased tensions between production, living, and ecological spaces (PLES), making sustainable land-use planning difficult. Therefore, PLES evolution and processes are a focus of current research. Remote sensing data with land-use transition matrices, centroid migration, standard deviation ellipses, spatial autocorrelation, and geographic detectors were used to study the dynamics of PLES in Hunan Province from 1990 to 2020, elucidate its mechanisms and main influencing factors, and provide a comprehensive understanding of its evolutionary characteristics. The main conclusions of our analysis are as follows: (1) Ecological space was the dominant land-use type, while production space increased, putting strain on natural areas. (2) Living space increased by 40.73% over three decades, mostly comprising manufacturing space, highlighting urban expansion. (3) Despite land-use changes, Loudi City’s PLES centroid remained central. (4) Standard deviation ellipses showed spatial shrinkage with directional stability, implying enhanced land usage within borders rather than outward growth. (5) The geographic detector analysis showed that the GDP, population density, slope, and elevation influenced these spatial changes. Economic prosperity drove urban expansion, but the slope and elevation limited development to accessible locations. These findings provide policymakers with essential information for balancing urbanization and ecological preservation and provide a case study for sustainable PLES design in rapidly developing regions. Full article

Urban shrinkage is a significant challenge to sustainable urban development. To date, the existing research has yet to analyze urban shrinkage at a fine-scale level. This study addresses this gap by employing nighttime light (NTL) data, which, due to its strong correlation with human activity and high spatial–temporal resolution, offers a robust approach for micro-scale population estimation. This paper aims to explore the characteristics and formation mechanisms of urban shrinkage spaces in Guangzhou, using NTL data and applying ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models. The correlational analysis reveals a marked improvement in model fit with GWR (R² = 0.91) compared with OLS (R² = 0.63), confirming the predictive power of NTL-based GWR for population mapping and the spatial delineation of urban shrinkage. We demonstrate that urban shrinkage spaces in Guangzhou are predominantly distributed in the outer suburbs, while urban growth is concentrated within the urban core area and inner suburbs. The formation of urban shrinkage in Liwan District examined as a case study, is primarily influenced by market factors, government actions, and regulatory constraints—a constellation of factors likely generalizable with other contexts of urban shrinkage. A comprehensive understanding of urban shrinkage at a fine-scale level is imperative for policy makers to optimize urban land use planning and mitigate the factors contributing to shrinkage space, thereby promoting sustainable urban development. Full article

Compacted soils in urban areas suffer from reduced porosity, impairing plant growth, water infiltration, and gas exchange, thus exacerbating other potential environmental issues. Amending soil with organic matter can reduce bulk density and increase permeability, thereby enhancing soil fertility and functionality. This study evaluated the effects of two organic soil amendments (i.e., chipped cork and municipal waste compost) on soil functionality and the physiology of Quercus ilex trees, following a soil compaction treatment. Five soil treatments were compared: control (no compaction and amendments), soil compaction without amendments, and compaction with amendments including cork, compost, or a combination of both. Soil and plant physiological responses were analyzed during the summer months, focusing on soil gas exchange, temperature, moisture, microbial respiration, enzymatic activity, leaf gas exchange, leaf chlorophyll fluorescence, chlorophyll content, and maximum daily trunk shrinkage. The results showed that amended soils exhibited increased soil gas exchanges, lower temperatures, and higher microbial activity than non-amended compacted soils, thereby reducing the detrimental effects of soil compaction on plant physiology. These findings suggested that incorporating organic amendments into urban soils, especially those subjected to frequent trampling, could make them more resistant/resilient to compaction, supporting healthier green spaces and more sustainable urban ecosystems. Full article

Studies on urban shrinkage in eastern China lack relevant contributions. This study investigates population dynamics in Jiangsu Province, focusing on county-level cities to understand the factors influencing urban population size. It developed a multidimensional indicator system per 2014, 2017, 2020, and 2023 statistical data, incorporating road network accessibility, socio-economic levels, resident income, public services, and the built environment. Employing static fixed effects models and dynamic panel regression models, it analyses trends and evolutionary patterns of permanent population changes. The findings indicate an overall increase in the permanent population over the past decade, although the growth rate has slowed in the last five years. Notably, there is a significant spatial clustering of population growth and contraction, often aligned with high-speed transportation corridors. Unlike existing research findings, the urban shrinkage pattern in Jiangsu Province is unique. Some cities in northern Jiangsu exhibit a ‘relative contraction’ pattern, where population decline coexists with high economic growth and spatial expansion. Key short-term factors influencing population size include the city’s economic level and residents’ disposable income, while long-term factors encompass city level, industrial structure, and transportation networks. Small towns exhibit ‘close-range mobility’, with primary short-term influences stemming from residents’ income, public service quality, and intercity transportation accessibility. Indeed, long-term factors primarily reflect economic development quality and urban employment rates. Full article

While numerous studies have employed deep learning and high-resolution remote sensing to predict future land use and land cover (LULC) changes, no study has integrated these predictive tools with the current urban planning context to find a potential issues for sustainability. This study addresses this gap by examining the planning context of Busan Metropolitan City (BMC) and analyzing the paradoxical objectives within the city’s 2040 Master Plan and the subordinate 2030 Busan Master Plan for Parks and Greenbelts. Although the plans advocate for increased green areas to enhance urban sustainability and social wellbeing, they simultaneously support policies that may lead to a reduction in these areas due to urban development. Using the CA-ANN model in the MOLUSCE plugin, a deep learning-based LULC change analysis, we forecast further urban expansion and continued shrinkage of natural green areas. During 1980–2010, Busan Metropolitan City (BMC) underwent high-speed urban expansion, wherein the urbanized areas almost doubled and agricultural lands and green areas, including forests and grassland, reduced considerably. Forecasts for the years 2010–2040 show continued further expansion of urban areas at the expense of areas for agriculture and green areas, including forest and grasslands. Given the master plans, these highlight a critical tension between urban growth and sustainability. Despite the push for more green spaces, the replacement of natural landscapes with artificial parks and green areas may threaten long-term sustainability. In view of these apparently conflicting goals, the urban planning framework for BMC would have to take up increasingly stronger conservation policies and adaptive planning practices that consider environmental preservation on a par with economic development in the light of the planning context and trajectory of urbanization. Full article

In the context of rapid urbanization, urban population differentiation has become increasingly pronounced. Regional development strategies based on growth scenarios often lead to continuous expansion, regardless of urban population status. Such “one-size-fits-all” models exacerbate resource waste and negatively impact urban land use efficiency (ULUE). This study aims to explore the mechanisms by which urban population growth and shrinkage (UPGS) affect ULUE, with the goal of enhancing ULUE and promoting sustainable urban development. We analyzed 34 prefecture-level cities in China’s three northeastern provinces. First, we identified UPGS using population data. We then employed a three-stage SBM-DEA model to measure ULUE from 2000 to 2020. Spatial analysis methods were used to examine the spatiotemporal characteristics and correlations between UPGS and ULUE. Additionally, mediating effect models and spatial Durbin models were utilized to empirically test the impact processes, mechanisms, and spatial heterogeneity. Our findings reveal that: (1) Over the past 20 years, urban population shrinkage in northeastern China has intensified, and significant regional disparities in urban development are evident. (2) Population growth positively influences ULUE, while population shrinkage inhibits its improvement. (3) Economic development, technological innovation, and industrial structure upgrading are key factors in enhancing ULUE in this region, while the impact of public services on ULUE varies significantly at different stages of urban development. (4) Economic development, technological innovation, and industrial structure upgrading exhibit spatial spillover effects, whereas public services are constrained by regional limitations, resulting in minimal spatial spillover effects. To foster coordinated regional development, this study proposes policy recommendations, including strengthening support for resource-dependent cities, optimizing the allocation of public resources, and promoting technological innovation and industrial diversification. Full article

Understanding the relationship between urban form and urban shrinkage is crucial for developing sustainable urban policies, particularly in medium-sized cities facing demographic and economic challenges. This study investigates the complex relationship between urban form and urban shrinkage in medium-sized Polish cities (population of 20,000 to 100,000), highlighting the implications for sustainability. Utilising a comprehensive multi-factor approach, it analyses the shrinkage and growth trends over 15 years (2006–2021) by establishing a shrinkage/growth score based on social, demographic, and economic factors for each city. It examines spatial aspects, particularly urban form compactness and population density, using Corine Land Cover (CLC) spatial data, making the methodology applicable to urban areas across Europe. The findings reveal no significant overall correlation between urban compactness and shrinkage/growth score across all cities. However, a positive correlation exists within “urban municipalities”, indicating that less compact urban areas tend to experience more shrinkage. Additionally, a temporary negative correlation between population density and shrinkage/growth score was observed from 2006 to 2016, which shifted to a positive trend in “urban municipalities” from 2016 to 2021. These results highlight urban shrinkage’s complex and dynamic nature and its potential ties to urban form. The study concludes with recommendations for urban policymakers and planners regarding compact and dense urban strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of shrinkage and enhance urban resilience and sustainability. While the trends change, the study highlights the need for further analysis of these relationships. Full article

In the context of ongoing global urbanization, the disparity in urban development, marked by the dual phenomena of urban sprawl and urban shrinkage at the regional level, has become increasingly evident. In this vein, two land-related governance strategies—smart growth (SG) and smart shrinkage (SS)—emerge as potential remedies to these challenges, targeting urban expansion and shrinkage, respectively. This study bridges the gap in the fragmented discourse surrounding SG and SS by conducting a comprehensive comparative review on the respective literatures. Utilizing the Scopus database, our research employs trend analysis, text and topic mining, time node analysis, and regional analysis, augmented by qualitative reviews of seminal papers. The findings reveal a notable shift in research focus, with interest in SS surging around 2010 (the number of SS-related papers published after 2010 accounts for 92.3% of the total number of the entire study period) as attention to SG waned, suggesting an impending paradigm shift in urban sustainability. The analysis indicates that SS research lacks the disciplinary diversity, thematic breadth, and empirical depth of SG studies, underscoring a need for a more robust theoretical foundation to support urban sustainability. Furthermore, while both SG and SS derive from environmental science foundations, SG predominantly addresses the physical and landscape attributes of urban areas, whereas SS focuses more on socio-economic dimensions. Our findings point to an intrinsic link between SG and SS, which could lay the groundwork for their integration into a unified theoretical framework to better advance urban sustainability. Full article

In recent years, an increasing number of Chinese cities have experienced population decline, impacting the urban economy, public services, and paid use of state-owned land (PUL). This paper employs a coupled coordination degree model and the gray correlation coefficient method to examine the relationship between the rate of population change from 1990 to 2020, the rate of PUL change from 2000 to 2020, and the coupled coordination of economy and public services. The study arrives at several conclusions: (1) Cities with declining populations exhibit a lower PUL rate than those without population shrinkage, indicating reduced activity in the land market. (2) Population growth plays a significant role in the coordinated development of the urban economy and public services, fostering urbanization. (3) The economy and public services in shrinking cities rely heavily on revenue generated from the transfer of PUL rights to support their coordinated development. This research provides an insightful comparison between shrinking and non-shrinking cities by integrating the unique compensated land transfer system in China with the critical variable of population change. Full article

With the increasing uncertainty of urban development, urban shrinkage in the rapid urbanization process in China has become increasingly serious. While many studies have explored urban shrinkage from the economic and population perspectives, they often ignore the essence of the phased evolution of economic and population factors. Thus, this study introduces the theory of economic resilience into the field of urban shrinkage and constructs a theoretical method for identifying urban shrinkage by integrating economic resilience and population change to reveal the evolutionary trajectory of regional urban growth and shrinkage. The results show that urban economic resilience and population change in the Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region (SSIMR) exhibit strong volatility, highlighting the importance of conducting urban shrinkage studies within specific crisis disturbance scenarios. In the context of the “new normal of the economy”, the economic resilience of cities in the SSIMR has significantly declined, and the problem of economic recession is gradually intensifying. The population change trend of cities in the SSIMR is relatively stable, with population loss being a common problem in urban development in the area and its scope and intensity increasing daily. Urban development in the SSIMR is evolving from global growth to widespread shrinkage, with 56.67% of the cities experiencing relative shrinkage, showing a spatial pattern of “western growth–eastern shrinkage”. Factors such as the agglomeration effect, industrial structure, and policy system collectively shape the evolution of urban growth and shrinkage. Full article

To delineate new directions of urban development in a context of demographic shrinkage in Southern Europe, the present study illustrates a comparative analysis of the demographic balance in metropolitan Athens, Greece (1956–2021). The analysis delineates short-term and long-term dynamics of the natural population balance, considering the impact of the Great Recession and COVID-19 pandemic, and assuming a contemporary increase in gross mortality rates and a marked fertility reduction associated with birth postponement. To address such objectives, we have compared the natural growth of population (the ratio of the total number of births to deaths) at ten year intervals (1956, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2009, 2019, 2020, 2021) in 115 municipalities of metropolitan Athens, controlling for the local context. The empirical results of descriptive statistics, spatial analysis, correlation statistics, non-parametric inference, and exploratory multivariate techniques outline the indirect impact of COVID-19 on population dynamics, being in some ways additive to the already observed effects of the Great Recession, reinforcing demographic shrinkage in specific local contexts. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Great Crisis likely accelerated the typical outcomes (population aging and low fertility) of the second demographic transition in Greece. These dynamics are associated with more volatile (and possibly reduced) immigration flows and with enhanced emigration, fueling urban shrinkage and a progressive economic decline of metropolitan regions, as our evidence suggests for Athens. Additional research should ascertain the aggregate, indirect role of pandemics in population dynamics as a proxy of urban and regional decline in European regions exposed to long-term aging. Full article