Search Results (1,771)

Freight transportation is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the US. As an emerging technology, truck platooning leverages vehicle-to-vehicle communications to enable trucks to travel in convoys with close proximity, which reduces air drag and consequently truck fuel use and GHG emissions. However, uncertainties remain about how this emerging technology may be adopted and its climate impacts. To this end, this paper investigates the role of truck platooning adoption in mitigating the climate impact of trucking from a system perspective. Considering the dynamic nature of truck platooning adoption, system dynamics (SD) models based on stock and flow diagrams are developed to estimate the potential reduction in fuel use and CO₂ emissions in the US trucking sector when truck platooning technology becomes available. The results show that adopting platooning could save 292 million metric tons of CO₂ emissions in 180 months after the initial introduction of the technology in the US truck sector. The analysis provides insights for accelerating truck platooning adoption while enhancing its environmental impact. Full article

Construction and demolition waste (CDW) represents a critical environmental challenge in the building sector, with global generation exceeding 3.57 billion tonnes annually. The circular economy (CE) framework offers a transformative pathway through selective deconstruction and material recovery, yet implementation faces significant barriers including information asymmetry, supply chain fragmentation, and regulatory uncertainty. This study conducts a systematic literature review using the Context–Mechanism–Outcome (CMO) framework to analyze how computational methods, specifically Digital Twins (DT), Building Information Modeling (BIM), Internet of Things (IoT), blockchain, artificial intelligence, and robotics, act as enablers for resilience in CDW management. Following PRISMA 2020 guidelines and realist synthesis principles, we analyzed 42 high-quality empirical studies from Web of Science and Scopus (2015–2025). Our analysis identifies seven primary mechanisms: traceability (M1), simulation (M2), classification (M3), tracking (M4), collaboration (M5), analytics (M6) and robotics (M7). These mechanisms interact with four critical contexts (information asymmetry, supply chain fragmentation, economic uncertainty, operational risks) to generate outcomes at two levels: resilience capabilities (visibility, monitoring, collaboration, flexibility, anticipation) and performance indicators (recovery rates, cost reduction, CO₂ emissions mitigation, occupational safety). Key findings from the CMO analysis reveal that blockchain-enabled traceability increases material recovery rates by 15–25%, DT simulation reduces deconstruction costs by 20–30%, and computer vision automation improves sorting accuracy to 85–95%. The study contributes middle-range theories explaining how digital technologies enable circular transitions under specific contextual conditions, offering actionable strategic implications for researchers, project managers, technology developers, and policymakers committed to advancing computational economics in sustainable construction. Full article

Against the background of intensifying global climate change, extreme precipitation events have become increasingly frequent. Improving the accuracy of short-term precipitation nowcasting is therefore essential for disaster prevention and mitigation. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) approaches are constrained by computational latency and errors arising from physical parameterizations, making it difficult to satisfy real-time forecasting requirements at high spatiotemporal resolution. Using the SEVIR dataset, this study conducts a systematic comparison of two Transformer-based deep learning models—Earthformer and LLMDiff—for short-term extreme precipitation nowcasting. Model performance is evaluated using the Critical Success Index (CSI), Probability of Detection (POD), and Success Ratio (SUCR). Results indicate that, for 0–30 min lead times, Earthformer more efficiently captures both local and long-range spatiotemporal dependencies via its Cuboid Attention mechanism and shows a slight advantage for low-intensity precipitation. As the lead time extends to 60 min, LLMDiff demonstrates stronger longer-horizon skill due to its diffusion-based probabilistic modeling and a frozen large language model (LLM) module, which enhance the representation of uncertainty and longer-term evolution of precipitation systems. However, LLMDiff tends to produce a higher false-alarm rate. Overall, Earthformer is better suited for rapid early warning of light precipitation, whereas LLMDiff is more appropriate for high-accuracy nowcasting of heavy precipitation, offering useful insights for intelligent forecasting of extreme weather. Full article

The rapid integration of AI customer service in e-commerce raises an important managerial question: Can AI effectively reduce product-related information asymmetry and improve sales performance across different product types? While prior research highlights both the uncertainty-reducing benefits of information and the risks of algorithm aversion, little is known about how AI customer service performs under varying levels of product uncertainty and information asymmetry. Using a difference-in-differences design with fixed effects across time, products, shops, and categories, we examine the impact of replacing customer service with AI on sales outcomes, distinguishing between search and experience goods. We further test how the depth and breadth of product information moderate these effects. Our findings indicate that AI customer service reduces sales for experience goods but not for search goods, unless accompanied by sufficient informational depth and breadth. We argue that this effect arises because AI technically inherits and amplifies the information asymmetry inherent in experience products, while greater informational depth and breadth of product information can mitigate this amplified asymmetry. Additionally, we find that this mitigating effect is more pronounced among products with high return rate. These findings clarify when AI-generated information mitigates product uncertainty and when it exacerbates it. Our results provide actionable guidance for firms seeking to deploy AI strategically in digital commerce environments. Full article

Background: Active surveillance of small renal masses is challenged by cumulative radiation exposure from repeated CT imaging, raising long-term health concerns. Low-dose CT protocols offer a strategy to mitigate this risk but are limited by uncertainty regarding measurement accuracy and potential effects on clinical decision-making. Methods: We propose an uncertainty-aware analytical framework using a multi-observer dataset of 40 paired CT cases (low-dose vs. standard-dose). The methodology combines statistical agreement assessment (concordance correlation coefficient, intraclass correlation coefficient), multi-algorithm machine learning prediction (linear regression, random forest, gradient boosting, and SVR), and integrated uncertainty quantification to evaluate equivalence across imaging protocols. Results: Comparative analysis demonstrates near-perfect concordance between protocols (concordance correlation coefficient = 0.9930). Linear regression achieved the highest predictive performance (R² = 0.9933, MAE = 0.4239 mm, MAPE = 2.07%), outperforming more complex ensemble models, highlighting that interpretable models can achieve superior accuracy without compromising reliability. Conclusions: Clinically, the framework supports the safe adoption of low-dose CT for longitudinal tumor assessment, preserving measurement fidelity and diagnostic confidence essential for timely intervention or continued surveillance. Radiologically, it ensures robust lesion characterization across protocols while minimizing cumulative radiation exposure, particularly in younger patients. By integrating uncertainty quantification, this approach enhances transparency, informs clinical decision-making, and facilitates personalized, evidence-based surveillance strategies, promoting safer, dose-optimized imaging in the management of small renal masses. Full article

Produced-water (PW) management in the Permian Basin faces tightening injection constraints, induced seismicity concerns, and volatile saltwater disposal (SWD) costs. At the same time, chemistry-rich PW contains dissolved constituents (e.g., Li, B, and Sr) that may be valorized if SWD recovery performance and market conditions support favorable techno-economics. Here, we develop an integrated decision-support framework that couples (i) chemistry-informed surrogate models for unit process performance (recovery, effluent quality, and energy/chemical intensity) with (ii) a network-based allocation model that routes PW from sources through pretreatment, optional treatment and mineral-recovery modules (e.g., desalination and direct lithium extraction), and end-use nodes (beneficial reuse, hydraulic fracturing reuse, mineral recovery/valorization, or Class II disposal). This is a screening-level demonstration using publicly available chemistry percentiles and representative pilot-reported performance windows; it is not a site-specific facility design or a bankable TEA for a particular operator. The optimization is posed as a tri-objective problem—to maximize expected net present value, minimize SWD, and minimize an injection-risk indicator R—subject to mass balance, capacity, quality, and regulatory constraints. Uncertainty in commodity prices, recovery fractions, and operating costs is propagated via Monte Carlo scenario sampling, yielding PARETO-efficient portfolios that quantify trade-offs between profitability and risk mitigation. Using the PW chemistry percentiles reported by the Texas Produced Water Consortium for the Delaware and Midland Basins, we derive screening-level break-even lithium concentrations and illustrate how lithium-carbonate-equivalent price and recovery govern the extent to which mineral revenue can offset SWD expenditures. Comparative brine benchmarks (Smackover Formation and Salton Sea geothermal systems) contextualize the Permian’s generally lower-Li PW and highlight transferability of the workflow across brine types. The proposed framework provides a transparent, extensible basis for design matrix planning under evolving injection limits, enabling risk-aware PW management strategies that reduce disposal dependence while improving water resilience. Full article

Deep neural networks suffer performance drops when source and target domains differ in distribution, motivating research into domain adaptation (DA). Traditional DA approaches presume source samples come from a single domain and can be available during adaptation. Nevertheless, in real-world applications, multiple source domains often exist, and source samples may be inaccessible owing to privacy and storage limitations. In response to the challenges of multi-source and source-free, multi-source-free domain adaptation (MSFDA) is proposed, which captures transferable information from a set of pre-trained source models to boost performance of the model on target domain. Most MSFDA methods meet these challenges by utilizing pseudo-labeling. However, pseudo-labels generated by distinct source models may contain noise and even be contradictory, which weakens their efficacy in facilitating source models adapting to the target domain. Moreover, these methods do not consider class imbalance, which would lead to biased predictions for minority classes, and undermine adaptation. Therefore, we propose a novel MSFDA method which extends adversarial learning to a multi-source-free setting. This method presents proxy multi-source domain adversarial learning, which aligns target features extracted by different source models in an adversarial manner, enhancing the capability of source models to extract domain-invariant features and potentially obtain high-quality pseudo-labels. Moreover, a nuclear-norm maximization regularization is employed to constrain prediction matrices, which can reduce the prediction uncertainty and enhance the discriminability of the model, while mitigating the prediction bias and promoting the prediction accuracy for minority classes. Finally, comprehensive evaluations on four benchmark datasets prove the validity of the proposed method. Full article

In ground-source heat-pump (GSHP) systems equipped with a single U-tube borehole heat exchanger (BHE), the heat-carrier fluid in the return leg may release heat to the surrounding ground in the shallow part of the borehole. From a fluid energy balance perspective, this is an exothermic process; however, it is detrimental during heating operation: It lowers the effective source temperature available to the heat pump and therefore degrades the overall coefficient of performance (COP). This study proposes a measurement-driven procedure to determine the exothermic transition depth $z_{\uparrow }^{*}$ from temperature profiles recorded at multiple depths along the ascending (return) pipe. The borehole is discretized into axial segments and, assuming a constant mass flow rate, the linear heat-exchange rate is estimated from the segment-wise enthalpy change. Time integration yields the segment-wise net energy exchange $Q_{\uparrow ,i}$, which is then classified as exothermic or endothermic using an uncertainty-based threshold derived from the standard uncertainty of the temperature sensors. The exothermic transition depth $z_{\uparrow }^{*}$ is defined as the first statistically stable sign change in the integrated segment energy (from exothermic to endothermic) and is obtained by linear interpolation between adjacent segment centres. By summing the exothermic energy exchange and the corresponding average loss power, an equivalent change in source-side outlet temperature $∆T_{out}$ is estimated and interpreted in terms of COP impact using a Carnot-scaled surrogate model. For two representative operating conditions, $z_{\uparrow }^{*}$ was found at $31.17 \mathrm{m}$ and $24.01 \mathrm{m}$, respectively, while the average exothermic loss power remained approximately 0.48 kW. The estimated $∆T_{out}$ ranged from $0.52$ to $0.75 \mathrm{K}$, corresponding to a diagnostic COP improvement if this parasitic exothermic exchange could be mitigated. The present results should therefore be interpreted as a case study-based demonstration of the method on one instrumented borehole rather than as a universal quantitative prediction for other sites or borehole fields. Full article

A monolithic digital Silicon Photomultiplier (SiPM) featuring 1024 microcells with a 30-micrometer pitch and a 50% fill factor has been designed in a 110-nanometer CMOS image sensor technology. The device under consideration integrates both SPAD sensors and front-end electronics in the same substrate. It can count up to 1024 photons in less than 22 ns, while assigning timestamps to the first and last detected photons with a time resolution of less than 100 ps. A parallel counter structure combined with a fast adder tree provides photon counting in digital form with low latency, whereas a carefully balanced fast NAND tree ensures a fixed-pattern time uncertainty not exceeding 26 ps. The architecture incorporates in-pixel memory for individual cell disabling and configurable thresholding on the timing signal for noise mitigation. In order to optimize the fill factor, a part of the electronics is placed outside the array, while the most sensitive elements of the timing and counting circuits are laid out close to the sensor, in the SPAD array. A serial readout is employed to provide a single output connection per SiPM, thereby simplifying system integration. Full article

The objective of this study is to explore the time-varying shock transmission mechanism between aggregated financial stress indices (FSIs) of developed economies (the U.S., the U.K., the European Union (EU) and Japan) and the emerging economy of China. We employ a novel Time-Varying Parameter Vector Auto-Regression (TVP-VAR)-based “connectedness approach” to capture dynamic shock spillovers without the limitations of arbitrarily chosen rolling windows, loss of observations, or excessive sensitivity to outliers, as it is grounded in a multivariate Kalman filter structure. The aggregated measures of the FSIs of China, the U.S., the U.K., the EU and Japan are incorporated from the Asian Development Bank’s data repository by using time-series observations from January 2010 to September 2023. The findings indicate that the FSI of China is influenced by financial stress shocks originating from Japan (18.35%) and the U.S. (16.86%) the most, whereas the U.K. (EU) contributes to only 8.42% (6.54%) of FSI shocks in China. This research article significantly captures China’s heightened vulnerability to external financial stress shocks from developed economic systems and underscores the critical importance of reinforcing financial resilience, strengthening macro-prudential regulations and early-warning systems, and expanding financial buffers during episodes of trade uncertainty like restrictions on China’s rare earth exports and solar panels, U.S. restrictions on industrial metal imports, Brexit, supply chain disruptions amid COVID-19, and geopolitical uncertainties like the Russia–Ukraine war. Overall, this study provides actionable guidance for mitigating the impact of global financial stresses, improving risk management, and safeguarding economic stability in an increasingly interconnected and volatile international environment. Full article

China’s rapid electric vehicle (EV) market expansion—from 331,000 units in 2015 to over 9.5 million in 2023—is generating an unprecedented wave of retired lithium-ion batteries projected to exceed 94 TWh cumulatively by 2060, presenting critical challenges for sustainable resource management. While grid decarbonization can reduce use-phase emissions, the substantial embodied carbon in battery production (55–130 kg CO₂-eq/kWh) remains a critical challenge for achieving carbon neutrality. This study presents an integrated dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) and prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) framework—calibrated against the latest peer-reviewed literature—to quantify the carbon mitigation potential of battery recycling and second-life applications from 2020 to 2060. We evaluate four end-of-life management scenarios: baseline linear economy, enhanced recycling, second-life dominant, and synergistic optimization. Our results reveal that the synergistic scenario achieves the highest cumulative avoided emissions of 3844 Mt CO₂-eq, representing a 12.1-fold improvement over the baseline. Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis (n = 10,000) confirms robust scenario differentiation, with 100% probability that synergistic optimization outperforms enhanced recycling alone. Material security analysis shows that recycled supply can meet 100% of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper demand by 2060 under optimal management. These findings provide quantitative evidence for chemistry-differentiated battery management policies aligned with China’s dual carbon goals and the transition toward a sustainable circular economy. Full article

Amidst the polycrisis of 2018–2024, Asia-Pacific trade flows exhibited a structural resilience that contrasts with traditional theoretical predictions of severe trade contraction under high uncertainty. This study investigates these resilience dynamics using a structural gravity model estimated via the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) approach. The analysis utilizes a balanced panel of 14 key regional economies (N = 4914), explicitly disaggregated into geographic (ASEAN-6 vs. non-ASEAN) and global value chain (high vs. low GVC intensity) subgroups to capture heterogeneous responses. The empirical results confirm that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) acts as a significant trade friction (β = −3.371), consistent with the wait-to-invest mechanism of real options theory. However, this effect is heterogeneous and significantly mitigated by institutional frameworks. We identify a robust institutional shield effect, where participation in trade agreements effectively neutralizes the adverse transmission of policy shocks (interaction coefficient = 3.396). Furthermore, this study uncovers a structural break during periods of extreme geopolitical conflict, characterized by a convex U-shaped relationship between uncertainty and trade. This pattern provides macro-level evidence of a behavioral shift in regional supply chains from a just-in-time cost-efficiency optimization model to a just-in-case security maximization paradigm, consistent with precautionary inventory accumulation. These findings underscore the critical role of modern trade pacts as institutional credibility anchors and the necessity of adaptive strategies in navigating heightened macroeconomic volatility. Full article

Managing supply chain risks is a core pillar of operational and supply chain resilience building in the global industrial chain system, which is essential for the high-quality and sustainable development of manufacturing firms. Against the backdrop of escalating global economic uncertainties and interconnected supply chain vulnerabilities, mitigating the adverse impact of supply chain risks on firms’ overseas market expansion has become a critical research and practical issue in the field of operational and supply chain risk management. Based on the textual analysis of annual reports of listed firms, this study constructs a systematic supply chain risk measurement indicator system through standardized text preprocessing, multi-dimensional feature keyword lexicon construction, context co-occurrence frequency calculation and so on. We further validate the effectiveness of the indicator system by comparing its trend with the global economic uncertainty index, confirming that it can capture firm-specific supply chain risk information effectively. Employing text analysis, this study constructs a systematic supply chain risk measurement indicator system for A-share manufacturing firms and empirically verifies that elevated supply chain risks significantly constrain their overseas market expansion. Three interrelated operational mechanisms, namely surging operating costs, tightened financing constraints, and slumping R&D investments, drive this inhibitory effect. Notably, firms can effectively offset this negative effect by broadening overseas operational scope and intensifying overseas digital and technological innovation. Heterogeneity analyses further reveal that the inhibitory effect is more pronounced for five types of firms: those with lower overseas revenue, located in less market-oriented regions, operating in upstream value chain sectors, with lower current liabilities, and with a lower degree of digital transformation. Full article

Rapid urbanization, environmental degradation and climate variability are intensifying the exposure of urban populations to multiple, interacting hazards in megacities. In India’s capital, Delhi, extreme heat, worsening air quality and flood-related stress overlap in impacted areas, exacerbated by high population density in low-lying zones and extensive built-up cover. This study develops an integrated spatial framework for assessing relative multi-hazard risk potential in Delhi by combining remote sensing, climate reanalysis, land use and demographic datasets into a predictive modeling system to support urban resilience planning. A comprehensive suite of twenty-two predictors representing thermal stress, air quality, surface indices, topography, hydrology, land use land cover (LULC), and demographic data was derived from diverse Earth observation sources. A cloud-native workflow leveraging Google Earth Engine (GEE) and Python 3 harmonized these predictors to train a Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) model with five-fold spatial cross-validation. Quantile regression was used to estimate lower (P10) and upper (P90) predictive bounds, which are interpreted here as empirical predictive intervals around the modeled risk surface rather than as a strict separation of different uncertainty types, while SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) decomposed the non-linear contributions of individual features. The model achieved predictive accuracy (R² = 0.98, MAE = 0.01), with residuals centered near zero and consistent performance across spatial folds, demonstrating strong generalizability. Road density (63.4%) and population density (25.9%) emerged as the primary predictors of the modeled risk surface, followed by building density and NO₂ concentration. Conversely, vegetation cover (NDVI) functioned as a critical mitigating buffer. Spatial risk maps identified persistent high-risk clusters in eastern and northeastern Delhi, coinciding with dense transport networks and industrial zones. The integrated P90 mapping framework provides spatially explicit and uncertainty-aware information on relative multi-hazard risk potential to guide targeted interventions, such as transport corridor mitigation and urban greening in Delhi and other rapidly urbanizing cities. Full article

Soil erosion on the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau (YGP) has a significant impact on the water sources and ecological safety of Southeast Asia and South China. With the influence of climate change, this erosion has been altered, which will create uncertainty regarding soil erosion management and social development in China and Southeast Asia. However, existing research still lacks simulations of soil erosion in large-scale regions, as well as a systematic understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics of future soil erosion under climate change. Therefore, a coupled model of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) at the regional scale of the YGP is proposed in this study. By analyzing the erosion patterns in the YGP, this research determines the optimal future scenario and corresponding mitigation strategies, thereby offering a localized practical reference for soil erosion control in the YGP and its alignment with the UN SDGs. The results show the following: (i) Temporally, soil erosion on the YGP will improve in the future. The overall soil erosion moduli of the YGP decrease by 196.86, 367.03, and 391.72 t/(km²·a) under the scenarios of SSPs1-1.9, SSPs2-4.5, and SPPs5-8.5, respectively. (ii) Spatially, soil erosion in the southwestern and central-northern parts of the YGP will be significantly improved in the future. The soil erosion moduli of the karstic and non-karstic areas gradually become close to each other, with the difference in soil erosion moduli between them in SSPs1-1.9, SSPs2-4.5, and SSPs5-8.5 being reduced from 671.65 t/(km²·a) to 623.79, 592.21, and 611.92 t/(km²·a), respectively. (iii) Among the different SSP scenarios, the SSPs2-4.5 scenario aligns most closely with the principles of sustainable development, making it the most desirable pathway. To ensure the long-term effectiveness of soil erosion control under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions, future strategies should take the SSPs2-4.5 scenario as a core reference and implement resilient portfolios of mitigation measures. Full article