Search Results (30)

Mangroves, as a key component of the blue-carbon ecosystem, have exceptional carbon sequestration capacity and are mainly distributed in tropical coastal regions. In the Solomon Islands, ongoing degradation of mangrove forests, primarily due to land conversion and timber exploitation, highlights an urgent need for high-resolution spatial data to inform effective conservation strategies. The present study introduces an efficient and accurate methodology for mapping mangrove habitats and prioritizing protection areas utilizing open-source satellite imagery and datasets available through the Google Earth Engine platform in conjunction with a U-Net deep learning algorithm. The model demonstrates high performance, achieving an F1-score of 0.834 and an overall accuracy of 0.96, in identifying mangrove distributions. The total mangrove area in the Solomon Islands is estimated to be approximately 71,348.27 hectares, accounting for about 2.47% of the national territory. Furthermore, based on the mapped mangrove habitats, an optimized hotspot analysis is performed to identify regions characterized by high-density mangrove distribution. By incorporating spatial variables such as distance from roads and urban centers, along with mangrove area, this study proposes priority mangrove protection areas. These results underscore the potential for using openly accessible satellite data to enhance the precision of mangrove conservation strategies in data-limited settings. This approach can effectively support coastal resource management and contribute to broader climate change mitigation strategies. Full article

As important energy suppliers in China, coal-resource-based cities are pivotal to achieving the nation’s 2060 carbon-neutrality goal. This study focused on Jincheng City, utilizing the LOW EMISSIONS ANALYSIS PLATFORM (LEAP) model to predict carbon emissions from energy consumption under various scenarios from 2020 to 2060. Then, combined with the Markov-PLUS model to map carbon emissions to land-use types, it evaluated spatial changes in carbon metabolism and analyzed carbon-transfer patterns across different land-use types. The results showed the following: (1) Across all scenarios, Jincheng’s carbon emissions exhibited an initial increase followed by a decline, with the industrial sector accounting for over 70% of total emissions. While the baseline scenario deviated from China’s carbon peaking target, the high-limit scenario achieved an early carbon peak by 2027. (2) High-negative-carbon-metabolism areas were concentrated in central urban zones and industrial parks. Notably, arable land shifted from a carbon-sink area to a carbon source area by 2060 in both the low- and high-limit scenarios. (3) In the baseline scenario, industrial and transportation land uses were the primary barriers to carbon metabolism balance. In the low-carbon scenario, the focus shifted from industrial and transportation emissions to urban construction land emissions. In the high-limit scenario, changes in urban–rural land-use relationships significantly influenced carbon metabolism balance. This study emphasizes the importance of industrial green transformation and land-use planning control to achieve carbon neutrality, and it further explores the significant impact of territorial spatial planning on the low-carbon transition of coal-resource-based cities. Full article

Sustainable development is a key concept that has been formulated over many years and is currently transforming our world. Decisions made in its spirit are influencing the economic and legal order and the daily lives of people in Europe and around the world. In Poland, achieving sustainable development requires a number of difficult decisions, and one of them is to transform the energy system toward low carbon. Poland’s energy transition is not an easy task in a country where, for many years, the dominant energy resource in terms of availability, resources and price has been coal. In view of such conditions, the Polish energy system has been based on coal, which in Polish conditions is still of strategic importance in meeting energy needs. For this reason, Poland’s planned move away from coal raises many controversies and concerns, especially in areas where mines operate. At the same time, it should be remembered that the mining industry, in addition to mining companies, brings together a large group of mining-related companies working for the benefit of mining. Due to the fact that it is in the territory of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin that about 80% of the documented balance resources of Polish hard coal are located, it was justified to conduct a survey among the residents of the Silesian Province as the group most likely to be affected by this decision. The aim of the survey was to find out the target group’s opinion on Poland’s transition away from coal. In turn, the main research problem was an attempt to answer the question of what percentage of households in the Silesian Province are opposed to Poland’s transition away from coal and what are the most significant factors influencing their opinion. Hence, this study presents the results of an empirical survey conducted among a randomly selected group of residents of the Silesian Province. The size of the research sample was 385 people. The study took into account factors such as age, place of residence, income, the square footage of the dwelling and the method of heating it, as well as respondents’ professional affiliation with the mining, mining-related, gas or energy industry. The results of the survey and analyses show that the vast majority of Upper Silesian residents are against the departure from coal, which is being planned in Poland’s energy transition. In addition, the most significant factors influencing respondents’ opinion on Poland’s move away from coal were identified and evaluated, revealing two social groups with differing views: one group opposes the move away from coal, prioritizing energy independence, energy security, energy prices and jobs over environmental issues; the other group advocates for the transition mainly for environmental reasons. Full article

Understanding the current and future net carbon emission trajectories in “Three-Zone Space” is crucial for China to promote the formation of a low-carbon development pattern in territorial space and realize carbon neutrality. Taking Wuhan as the study area, we developed carbon emission and sequestration inventories for “Three-Zone Space”. Key driving factors of net carbon emissions were analyzed using the logarithmic mean division index, and future emissions and sequestration under six scenarios were projected with a system dynamics model. The optimal emission reduction pathway was identified through the intelligent decision-making index analysis. Our results show that Wuhan’s net carbon emission increased from 18.589 Mt in 2000 to 42.794 Mt in 2020. The emissions during this period primarily came from urban production space and urban living space. Economic development is the primary factor contributing to the increase in net carbon emissions (36.412 Mt). The efficiency of territorial space utilization is the strongest mitigator of net carbon emissions, reducing net carbon emissions by 74.341 Mt (accounting for 42.06% of total emissions). The comprehensive scenario is the most effective for net carbon emission reduction in urban and ecological spaces, while the technological progress scenario provides the greatest reduction potential in agricultural spaces. These findings provide actionable insights for optimizing spatial planning, enhancing ecological restoration, and adopting low-carbon agricultural technologies to achieve targeted emissions reductions in “Three-Zone Space”. The results of this study can further provide scientific basis for the formulation of targeted emission reduction measures for “Three-Zone Space” and guide the construction of low-carbon territorial space patterns. Full article

This study analyzes the forest flammability hazard in the south of Tyumen Oblast (Western Siberia, Russia) and identifies variation patterns in fire areas depending on weather and climate characteristics in 2008–2023. Using correlation analysis, we proved that the area of forest fires is primarily affected by maximum temperature, relative air humidity, and the amount of precipitation, as well as by global climate change associated with an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the maximum height of snow cover. As a rule, a year before the period of severe forest fires in the south of Tyumen Oblast, the height of snow cover is insignificant, which leads to insufficient soil moisture in the following spring, less or no time for the vegetation to enter the vegetative phase, and the forest leaf floor remaining dry and easily flammable, which contributes to an increase in the fire area. According to the estimates of the CMIP6 project climate models under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, by the end of the 21st century, a gradual increase in the number of summer temperatures above 35 °C is expected, whereas the extreme SSP5-8.5 scenario forecasts the tripling in the number of such hot days. The forecast shows an increase of fire hazardous conditions in the south of Tyumen Oblast by the late 21st century, which should be taken into account in the territory’s economic development. Full article

Nowadays, we are heading towards global decarbonisation, with each sector involved contributing partial solutions to the problem, without realising that an overall vision is necessary. Photovoltaics emerged as a technology that requires a lot of surface area, which is why it has been integrated into buildings and other human infrastructures (BPVI). The effects of the implementation of AVS on an island have been analysed, observing the territory’s energy use, population, and social and topographical realities, collecting all the peculiarities that could be affected by a massive implementation of this technology. The method to be followed is a SWOT and TOWS analysis, widely employed in all types of scientific studies. The increase in the island’s resilience has been assessed, as has its decreasing its dependence on the outside. In this case, it has been observed that conventional PV is currently being installed on agricultural land to decarbonise electricity production, which mostly relies on oil and does not consider that the island is a territory with a high food dependence on the outside; a high unemployment rate; a high factor of soil desertification, meaning fires are frequent; a high rate of abandonment of agricultural land; and a shortage of flat land. Therefore, we affirm that the island’s carbon footprint will increase by not taking all these factors into account. In addition to punishing the local economy by destroying fertile soil, local food and jobs, the current method of energy production increases the need for subsidies to import food products from abroad. In addition, we claim that the use of AVS reduces the water needs of the crop, which is relevant on an island with great water scarcity. It is concluded that 11 of the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals would be improved with the use of agrovoltaic technology. Full article

With the commitment of more and more universities to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, standardizing the modeling is now becoming urgent. To date, published climate-relevant emissions can be based on completely different and incomparable accounting methods, as shown with results between 6 and 2696 t CO₂e for the use phase of the same campus. This article aims to identify, compare, and evaluate the different modeling approaches behind this. For this purpose, this article proposes basic attributes of emissions modeling and reporting. Of the three established approaches to emissions accounting, sector logic (territorial carbon accounting) produces the lowest figures. Reporting in accordance with the greenhouse gas protocol, which has become established worldwide, can also shift the responsibility outside the institutional consumer. Life-cycle assessment, instead, essentially includes provision costs triggered by the consumer. The different modeling approaches also overlap with different coverage of emission sources, for which a standard set is being proposed. Such emissions modeling should finally lead to the determination of university-specific climate performances, i.e., the CO₂e emissions per capita and per m² of gross floor area. Infrastructure and procurement expenses must be recorded in addition and converted to an annual average. Full article

Accurate estimation of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and the scientific formulation of ecological conservation and land use policies are essential for promoting regional low-carbon sustainable development and achieving the goal of “carbon neutrality.” In this study, the FLUS–InVEST model was used to evaluate the carbon stocks of the Jiangsu coastal zone in China from 1995 to 2020 and scientifically forecast the changes in carbon stocks in 2030 under three scenarios: natural exploitation, ecological protection, and economic development. The results are as follows: (1) From 1995 to 2020, carbon storage in the coastal zone initially remained stable before declining, a trend closely linked to the accelerated urbanization and economic growth of Jiangsu Province. (2) By 2030, carbon storage under the three scenarios exhibits a pattern of “S1 decrease–S2 increase–S3 decrease,” with a more significant increase in construction land under the natural development and economic development scenarios compared to the ecological protection scenario. (3) The sensitivity of carbon storage to land use changes varies across scenarios. In the natural development scenario, carbon storage is most affected by forest reduction and construction land expansion. In the ecological protection scenario, it is more responsive to increases in non-construction land. In the economic development scenario, the expansion of construction land leads to the most significant decrease in carbon storage. Therefore, when formulating future territorial spatial planning policies and urban development strategies, it is essential to consider ecological protection and economic development scenarios comprehensively, taking into account carbon sequestration capabilities. This approach will ensure effective conservation and restoration of damaged ecosystems while safeguarding the robust development of urban economies and societies. Full article

Land use change has always been a significant factor affecting global carbon emissions. Dissecting the characteristics of territorial space evolution and its impact on carbon emissions is crucial for developing low-carbon-oriented territorial space optimization and governance strategies. This paper calculates the carbon emissions associated with territorial spaces in Qingdao from 2000 to 2020, utilizing land use data alongside various statistical data. Based on the accounting results, the evolution characteristics of territorial spaces and their corresponding carbon emissions, as well as the carbon transition dynamics resulting from space transfer, are analyzed. A carbon transition decomposition formula is then proposed to quantify the differential and spatially heterogeneous impacts of changes in space types and socio-economic development on emissions. The results indicate that: (1) the evolution of territorial spaces in Qingdao during 2000–2020 is characterized by an expansion of living space and a contraction of production and ecological spaces; (2) net carbon emissions rose from 313.98 × 10⁴ tons to 1068.58 × 10⁴ tons, with urban production space contributing the most (69.96% in 2020) due to its significantly high emission density. The spatial distribution of carbon emissions exhibited a stable “northwest–southeast” pattern, with increased dispersion and weakened directionality; (3) the transformation of territorial spaces promoted carbon emissions in Qingdao, with the conversion of urban production space to other uses yielding the most favorable carbon transitions, while the expropriation of agricultural production spaces for urban production and residents’ living has resulted in the most detrimental carbon transitions; (4) socio-economic development shapes the overarching pattern of regional emission density changes, whereas space transfers account for local variations. This paper also identifies priorities for spatial optimization and key sectors for emission reduction. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the carbon emission consequences of territorial space transformation in Qingdao, thereby providing valuable insights for regional spatial planning and optimization aimed at promoting low-carbon development. Full article

Forest restoration projects can be categorized as climate projects, investments in the implementation of which exceed the investment costs of forest-climate projects, which reduces their attractiveness to investors. An algorithm for assessing investment costs of climate reforestation projects on disturbed lands has been developed. The potential of territories for the implementation of such project initiatives is available in all regions of Russia and amounts to more than 381 thousand hectares. For five studied polygons of disturbed lands (Kuzbass basin, Moscow basin, Western Siberia basin, as well as basins of Chelyabinsk and Belgorod Regions), the aggregated costs for the implementation of measures to create carbon-depositing plantations and ground cover were calculated. Investment costs for restoration of 1 hectare of disturbed land under the climate project vary from 82.6 thousand rubles to 116.9 thousand rubles. Cost analysis shows that the carbon intensity of investment in such projects on disturbed lands is quite high (Ccii > 1.0). The highest investment potential is observed in the Kuzbass basin, where Ccii is 2.01. To organize and implement the afforestation project on disturbed lands of the Kemerovo Region, investments in the amount of 66.7 thousand rubles/ha for capital expenditures and 24.7 thousand rubles/ha for current expenses will be required. The payback period of such an investment project, taking into account the discount rate, is 13.1 years, and during the study period (20 years) the income from the project will cover 228% of the spent funds. These data confirm that the investment potential of forest-climatic projects on disturbed lands is quite high. Full article

Climate policies such as sectoral carbon budgets use national greenhouse gas emissions inventories to track the decarbonization of sectors. While they provide an important compass to guide climate action, the accounting framework in which they are embedded lacks flexibility for activities that are international and at the crossroads of different sectors. The building activities, being largely linked with important upstream emitters such as energy production or industrial activities, which can take place outside of national borders, are such an example. As legislation increasingly addresses the whole-life carbon emissions of buildings, it is vital to develop cross-sectoral accounting methods that effectively measure and monitor the overall impact of buildings. Such methods are essential for creating sound and holistic decarbonization pathways that align with sustainability policies. This article aims to provide a consistent approach for depicting the life-cycle emissions of buildings at the national level, using France as a case study. By integrating the different emission scopes with decarbonization pathways, this approach also enables the creation of comprehensive whole-life carbon budgets. The results show that the French building stock footprint reached 162 MtCO₂eq in 2019, with 64% attributed to operational emissions, primarily from fossil fuel combustion, and the remainder to embodied emissions, mainly from upstream industrial and energy sectors. Overall, 20% of the emissions occurred outside the national borders. Under various global decarbonization pathways, the significance of embodied emissions is projected to increase, potentially comprising 78% of the life-cycle emissions by 2050 under the current policies. This underscores the necessity for climate policies to address emissions beyond territorial and operational boundaries. Full article

Rapidly changing climate issues and increasingly severe carbon emissions are great challenges to the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality strategy. Analyzing the impact of future land use changes on carbon emissions can provide an important basis and reference for scientifically constructing a low-carbon and sustainable territorial spatial planning, as well as realizing the goal of the dual-carbon strategy. Based on land use data, agricultural production activity data, and energy consumption statistics, this study simulated the land use changes of the Yangtze River Delta region (YRDR) from 2030 to 2060 under the natural development (ND) scenario and sustainable development (SD) scenario by using the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and analyzed the impacts of future land use changes on carbon emissions. The results showed that: (1) The land use simulation results obtained by using the PLUS model under the sustainable development scenario were highly consistent with the actual land use with an OA value of 97.0%, a Kappa coefficient of 0.952, and a FoM coefficient of 0.403; (2) Based on the simulated land use under the SD scenario from 2030 to 2060, the quantity of construction land was effectively controlled, and the spatial distributions of cropland and forests were found to dominate in the north and south of the Yangtze River, respectively; (3) Anhui Province was the major contributor (accounted for 49.5%) to the net carbon absorption by cropland while Zhejiang Province was the major contributor (accounted for 63.3%) to the net carbon absorption by forest in the YRDR during the period 2020–2060 under the SD scenario; (4) Carbon emissions from construction land were the main source of carbon emissions from land use in the YRDR during the period 2020–2060 with proportions higher than 99% under both the ND and SD development scenarios. These findings underscore the urgent need for the government to take measures to balance the relationships between cropland and ecological protection and economic development, which provides a reference for the optimization of land use structure and policy formulation in the future. Full article

Intensive economic and human activities present challenges to the carbon storage capacity of terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in arid regions that are sensitive to climate change and ecologically fragile. Therefore, accurately estimating and simulating future changes in carbon stocks on the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains (NSEBTM) holds great significance for maintaining ecosystem stability, achieving high-quality development of the economic belt, and realizing the goal of “carbon neutrality” by 2050. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the NSEBTM carbon stocks in arid regions from 1990 to 2050, utilizing a combination of multi-source data and integrating the Patch-generating Land use Simulation (PLUS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models. Additionally, an attribution analysis of carbon stock changes is conducted by leveraging land use data. The findings demonstrate that (1) the NSEBTM predominantly consists of underutilized land, accounting for more than 60% of the total land area in the NSEBTM. Unused land, grassland, and water bodies exhibit a declining trend over time, while other forms of land use demonstrate an increasing trend. (2) Grassland serves as the primary reservoir for carbon storage in the NSEBTM, with grassland degradation being the leading cause of carbon loss amounting to 102.35 t over the past three decades. (3) Under the ecological conservation scenario for 2050 compared to the natural development scenario, there was a net increase in carbon storage by 12.34 t; however, under the economic development scenario compared to the natural development scenario, there was a decrease in carbon storage by 25.88 t. By quantitatively evaluating the land use change in the NSEBTM and its impact on carbon storage in the past and projected for the next 30 years, this paper provides scientific references and precise data support for the territorial and spatial decision making of the NSEBTM, thereby facilitating the achievement of “carbon neutrality” goals. Full article

Land use changes in rapidly urbanizing regions around the world constitute a principal anthropogenic element fueling the surge in carbon emissions. Here, land use patterns within the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration under low-carbon development (LCD) scenarios were simulated. Additionally, social network analysis was employed to formulate carbon balance planning guidelines for various administrative regions. (1) In the ecological protection scenario, carbon emissions from land use were 643.42 × 10⁴ tons lower compared to the natural development scenario. Counties with high ecological support coefficients accounted for 22%, making them better suited for predicting outcomes related to low-carbon-oriented land use. (2) The spatial connections of carbon emissions in BTH were closely related, forming the three main carbon emission spatial linkage areas. (3) A carbon balance zoning plan for the BTH in 2035 under the LCD scenario was formulated. Furthermore, key areas for the implementation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality projects were delineated, and targeted measures for carbon reduction and sink increase were proposed. This study provides a new perspective for implementing territorial spatial planning in Chinese urban agglomerations and can aid the government in formulating a reasonable low-carbon-oriented regional planning policy. Full article

South Korea is one of the countries with a significant proportion of its national territory covered by forests. However, it remains unclear what management strategies for providing forest ecosystem services are preferred by the residents. This study explores South Korean residents’ preferences for managing local forest ecosystem services, with a focus on how these preferences vary by forest ownership. Using the choice experiment method, this research identified residents’ willingness to pay for seven key local forest ecosystem services, along with a tax measure. The findings indicate a strong preference for biodiversity as the primary ecosystem service in both national/public and private forests, with residents willing to pay an average of KRW 28,370 (USD 21.80) per household per year and KRW 31,670 (USD 24.34) per household per year, respectively, for its enhancement. Preferences varied depending on forest ownership, with noticeable differences in perceptions of services like water supply, non-timber forest product supply, carbon storage, and recreation. Based on forest ownership, these variations in perceptions highlight the importance of managing ecosystem services in line with national/public forests and private forests, which significantly influences residents’ preferences. The study emphasizes the necessity of formulating ecosystem service management policies that account for the region’s unique natural resource characteristics, aiming to maximize ecological benefits for the local population. Full article