Search Results (8)

Epidemics spread through shipping networks and have dual characteristics as both biological sources of infection and triggers of cascading failures. However, existing resilience models fail to capture this dual and coupled dynamics. To minimize the cascading impacts of epidemics on global shipping networks, this paper proposes an innovative resilience assessment framework that considers the interaction between epidemic transmission and the shipping network cascading failure. First, a weighted shipping network topology is constructed based on route flow characteristics to quantify route frequency, stopping time, and the number of infected people, and the epidemic transmission across ports is modeled with an improved SEIR model, which contains a heterogeneous infectivity function and a dynamic transmission matrix, revealing a dual transmission mechanism inside and outside the ports. Second, a two-stage cascading failure model is developed: a direct failure triggered by infected people exceeding the threshold and an indirect failure triggered by the dynamic redistribution of loads. The load redistribution strategy is optimized to reconcile the residual port capacity and the risk of infection. Finally, a multidimensional resilience assessment framework covering structural destruction resistance, network efficiency, path redundancy, and a cascading failure propagation rate is constructed. Example validation shows that the improved load redistribution strategy reduces the maximum connected subgraph decay rate by 68.2%, reduces the cascading failure rate by 88%, and improves the peak network efficiency by 128.2%. In case of multi-source epidemics, the state of the network collapse can be shortened by 12 days if the following recovery strategy is adopted: initially repair high connectivity hubs (e.g., Port of Shanghai), and then repair high centrality nodes (e.g., Antwerp Port) to achieve a balance between recovery efficiency and network functionality. The research results reduce the risk of systemic disruptions in maritime networks and provide decision-making tools for dynamic port scheduling during pandemics. Full article

Port shipping collaboration is vital to greener, more resilient trade, yet decisions remain siloed and uncertain. This study develops a Bayesian network model grounded in empirical data from major Chinese ports, aiming to systematically analyze and enhance port shipping collaborative capacity. The methodology integrates expert knowledge and structural learning algorithms to construct a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), representing complex multi-stakeholder interactions among port enterprises, shipping companies, customers, and governmental bodies. Through forward and backward probabilistic inference, the study quantifies how coordinated improvements yield substantial synergistic benefits. Five leverage points stand out: customer engagement in green supply chains, perceived service quality, port digital information integration, multilateral trading maturity, and strict policy enforcement. A newly revealed feedback loop between digital integration and enforcement extends Emerson et al.’s collaborative governance framework, highlighting “digital-era connectivity” as a critical governance dimension and offering managers a focused, evidence-based action agenda. Full article

Background: The resilience of shipping alliances within the global maritime container network (GMCN) has critical implications for global trade. This study examines the topological robustness of strategic alliances (SAs) in liner shipping, focusing on their structural properties and responses to disruptions. Methods: Using pre-2019 container vessel schedule data, we constructed a weighted node-edge network model of the GMCN. Centrality metrics were computed to identify critical nodes, and simulations were conducted to evaluate network robustness under random failures (RFs) and targeted attacks (TAs). Results: The results highlight the GMCN’s scale-free topology, which fosters resilience against RFs but exposes vulnerabilities to TAs on high-centrality nodes like Singapore and Shanghai. Among alliances, 2M and Ocean demonstrated superior resilience, attributed to strategic port selection and extensive coverage, yet their reliance on central hubs presents significant risks. Conclusions: This study underscores the importance of alliance-specific strategies, such as infrastructure investments and redundancy planning, to mitigate vulnerabilities. By bridging gaps in existing literature, the research provides insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders to enhance the robustness and adaptability of maritime logistics networks. These findings contribute to ensuring stable global supply chains within an evolving trade environment. Full article

Inland water transportation is regarded as a crucial component of global trade, yet its reliability has been increasingly challenged by uncertainties such as extreme weather, port congestion, and geopolitical tensions. Although substantial research has focused on the structural characteristics of inland water transportation networks, the dynamic responses of these networks to disruptions remain insufficiently explored. This gap in understanding is critical for enhancing the resilience of global transportation systems as trade volumes grow and risks intensify. In this study, percolation theory was applied to evaluate the reliability of the Yangtze River transportation network. Ship voyage data from 2019 were used to construct a complex network model, and simulations of node removal were performed to identify key vulnerabilities within the network. The results showed that the failure of specific nodes significantly impacts the network’s connectivity, suggesting which nodes should be prioritized for protection. This research offers a dynamic framework for the assessment of inland water transportation network reliability and provides new insights that could guide policy decisions to improve the resilience of critical waterway systems. By identifying potential points of failure, this study contributes to the development of a more robust global trade infrastructure. Full article

With the acceleration of economic globalization, China’s financial market has emerged as a vital force in the global financial system. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and China Container Freight Index (CCFI) serve as key indicators of the shipping sector’s health, reflecting their sensitivity to shifts in China’s financial landscape. This study utilizes an innovative CNN-LSTM deep learning model to forecast the BDI and CCFI, using 25,974 daily data points from the Chinese financial market between 5 May 2015 and 30 November 2022. The model achieves high predictive accuracy across diverse samples, frequencies, and structural variations, with an R² of 97.2%, showcasing its robustness. Beyond its predictive strength, this research underscores the critical role of China’s financial market in advancing sustainable practices within the global shipping industry. By merging advanced analytics with sustainable shipping strategies, the findings offer stakeholders valuable tools for optimizing operations and investments, reducing emissions, and promoting long-term environmental sustainability in both sectors. Additionally, this study enhances the resilience and stability of financial and shipping ecosystems, laying the groundwork for an eco-friendly, efficient, and sustainable global logistics network in the digital era. Full article

Ports play an important role in maintaining the effectiveness of maritime logistics. When ports encounter congestion, strikes, or natural disasters, the maritime container transportation network might be significantly affected. The Beibu Gulf sea area is a key channel to supporting China’s participation in international economic cooperation in the western region. It is highly susceptible to the influence of the political and economic instability. This study introduces a dual-component framework to analyze the inherent structure and potential vulnerabilities of the container transportation network in the Beibu Gulf Sea areas. The findings show that the core layer of the network exhibited circular solidification characteristics. The entire network heavily relies on some core ports, such as Haiphong Port, Ho Chi Minh Port, and Qinzhou Port, and it highlights the potential increases in vulnerability. The finding shows that deliberate attacks have a greater impact than random attacks on the normal operations of maritime networks. If ports with high intermediary centrality are attacked, the connectivity and transportation efficiency of the Beibu Gulf maritime network will be significantly affected. However, under such circumstances, redistributing cargo transportation through route adjustments can deal with the transmission of cascading failures and maintain the network’s resilience. Based on the existing knowledge and the data collected in a case study, this research stands out as the first to provide a critical examination of the spatial structure and vulnerability of container shipping networks in the Beibu Gulf sea. Full article

The increased port outages caused by events such as war and public health emergencies have motivated the study of container port shipping network (CPSN) resilience. This paper proposes a resilience framework, which includes prevention, resistance, restoration, adaption, and optimization. The framework is used to analyze the resilience of the CPSN by detecting changing performance of the network indicators before and after the random attack or one of the deliberate attacks. The indicators include the network resilience index, degree distribution, independent path, cluster coefficient, network efficiency and connectivity. The comparative analysis is based on the statistics of China’s cases in 2005 and 2017. The results indicate that, first, the resilience of the structure of China’s container port shipping network (CCPSN) in 2017 has improved when comparing the 2015 situation. Second, the performance of indicators under betweenness attack (BA) decreases faster than other attacks; the resilience index of deliberate attacks is poorer, when compared with the random attack (RA). Third, network resilience can be improved by protecting and adding hub port nodes. Priority should be given to restoring the hub port nodes during the recovery process. The same network indicator recovers similarly after facing different attacks, while different indicator shows various recovery process. Thus, it is necessary to consider the different recovery performances of network indicators when the damaged CPSN selects recovery mode. Full article

As an important hub in the maritime transportation system, ports are vulnerable to events such as terrorist attacks, security accidents and bad weather. The failure of port nodes to function effectively affects the connectivity and efficiency of the shipping network and impedes trade between countries. In view of this, in this paper, we constructed the Maritime Silk Road shipping network based on route data and used transmissibility and diversity to represent the resilience of the network and nodes. Then, we analyzed the variation characteristics of resilience using disruption simulation and identified 9 dominant nodes and 15 vulnerable nodes that could help to accurately determine the factors that affect the resilience of the MSR shipping network structure. The results show that the Maritime Silk Road shipping network structure is vulnerable, and the failure of ports to function has different effects on network transmissibility and diversity. In terms of node transmissibility and diversity, there are differences in the resistance of port nodes to interventions. In addition, the failure of dominant ports to function and the emergence of vulnerable ports are significant factors that weaken the resilience of the network structure. When dominant ports are interrupted, this greatly affects the resilience of the network structure. It is necessary to reduce the possibilities of the failure of dominant ports. Vulnerable ports are weaknesses in the resilience of the network structure, which weaken the ability of the network to function. The centrality of these ports should be strengthened, and their relation to regional and trans-regional links should be enriched. The research results provide a scientific basis for ensuring the structural resilience of the Maritime Silk Road shipping network. Full article