Search Results (8)

The Earth’s weather and climate are strongly influenced by synoptic-scale systems such as extratropical cyclones. From this point of view, extratropical cyclones are very important for Equator–Pole heat exchange, and their positions are relevant to the understanding of the behavior of this system under current conditions and in the context of climate change. Baroclinic instability (BI), meridional heat flux (MHF), and kinetic energy (KE) are among the ways of calculating storm tracks (the regions in which extratropical cyclones most often occur). Forecasting is important for predicting the evolution of these phenomena and preparing future political decisions. In this study, we used ERA5 reanalysis data and BESM model forecasts to calculate BI, MHF, and KE. Overestimation of the BESM BI at lower and higher latitudes and underestimation of BI at medium latitudes were observed. In general, KE and MHF were underestimated and were displaced southward in the BESM. The analyses show a tendency towards poleward displacement of these tracks for all variables studied in in this paper. The scenarios show the same bias, with RCP8.5 having more extreme changes in all situations. Full article

Early freeze-up affects the local marine environment and ecosystem throughout the entire Bering Sea. However, the process governing early freeze-up, which is responsible for the most significant interannual variation in the December sea ice area (SIA), is not well understood. Here, we show that the SIA in December is modulated by the Aleutian low in November by altering poleward heat transport (PHT). The stronger the November PHT is, the lower the December SIA. The rise in heat transport across the Bering Strait in November is consistent with the decrease in SIA in December, with a correlation of −0.71, further validating the regulatory role of PHT. The Aleutian low anomaly controls the local wind field, further altering the sea surface temperature and PHT. The center of the anomalous low-pressure in the east (west) generates the northerly (southeasterly) anomaly over the northern Bering Sea, leading to acceleration (suppression) of seawater cooling and weakening (enhancement) of the PHT. It is also found that a strong northerly surface current has a greater influence on the later SIA than warm water temperature. Hence, atmospheric forcing causing changes in ocean forcing is imperative to understand early freeze-up. Full article

Modulation of the marine environment in the Natal Bight (~29.1°S, 31.6°E) was studied using daily high-resolution climate reanalysis products and monthly satellite green- and red-band reflectance in the period 2002–2022. The KwaZulu-Natal shelf edge is characterized by a narrow band of upwelling next to the warm Agulhas Current. Strong, reversing longshore winds ~7 m/s and meandering poleward flow ~1 m/s pulse the system, but along the leeward coast that forms the Natal Bight, environmental conditions are buffered by a weak cyclonic gyre. Wind and current shear create a shadow zone that aggregates plankton, recycles nutrients, and sustains marine resources. The seasonal cycle is of high amplitude: the surface heat balance reaches +70 W/m² in December, followed by river discharges ~3 M m³/yr of fresh nutrient-rich water that peak in February. This induces a buoyant surface layer that inhibits wind wave turbulence during summer. By contrast, winter (June–August) cooling −95 W/m² and frequent cyclonic storminess deepen the mixed layer from 25 to 65 m, enabling wind wave turbulence to reach the seafloor (Tugela Bank). Red-band reflectance increases 3-fold from summer to winter and is significantly correlated with net heat balance −0.54, daily wave heights > 2.5 m +0.51, mixed layer depth +0.47, sea surface temp −0.41, and wind vorticity −0.39. Daily longshore winds from the northeast and southwest were, unexpectedly, most amplified in spring (August–October). The seasonality exhibits sequential effects that supports year-round marine nutrification in the Natal Bight. Intra-seasonal fluctuations were related to meandering of the Agulhas Current and changes in longshore winds and shelf waves that impart significant pulsing of near-shore currents at 4–9-day periods. Although the cyclonic gyre in the Natal Bight spins up and down, SST variance was found to be relatively low in its center, where external influences are buffered. Considering linear trends for winds and runoff and surface temperature over the period 1950–2021, we found that northeasterlies increased, runoff decreased, and inshore sea surface temperatures have warmed slowly relative to the adjacent land surface temperature. New insights derive from the use of monthly satellite red-band reflectance and daily 10 km climate reanalysis fields to understand how air–land–sea fluxes modulate the marine environment in the Natal Bight. Full article

Based on reanalysis data, satellite ozone concentration observations, and a Lagrangian trajectory simulation, a Rossby wave breaking (RWB) event and its effect on stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) over the Tibetan Plateau in mid-March 2006 were investigated. Results showed that the increased eddy heat flux from the subtropical westerly jet magnified the amplitude of the Rossby wave, which contributed to the occurrence of the cyclonic RWB event. The quasi-horizontal cyclonic motion of the isentropic potential vorticity in the RWB cut the tropical tropospheric air mass into the extratropical stratosphere, completing the stratosphere–troposphere mass exchange. Meanwhile, the tropopause folding zone extended polewards by 10° of latitude and the tropospheric air mass escaped from the tropical tropopause layer into the extratropical stratosphere through the tropopause folding zone. The particles in the troposphere-to-stratosphere transport (TST) pathway migrated both eastwards and polewards in the horizontal direction, and shifted upwards in the vertical direction. Eventually, the mass of the TST particles reached about 3.8 × 10¹⁴ kg, accounting for 42.2% of the particles near the tropopause in the RWB event. The rest of the particles remained in the troposphere, where they moved eastwards rapidly along the westerly jet and slid down in the downstream upper frontal zone. Full article

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) invokes the release of a large amount of heat and moisture into the tropical atmosphere, inducing circulation anomalies. The circulation response to ENSO propagates both horizontally poleward and vertically into the stratosphere. Here, we investigate the remote response of the polar stratosphere to ENSO using reanalysis data, along with composite and regression analysis. In particular, we focus on inter-event variability resulting from two ENSO types (the Eastern Pacific (EP) and the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño) and the inter-hemispheric difference in the ENSO responses. Consistent with previous results, we show that ENSO is associated with a weakening in the stratospheric polar vortex but emphasize that the polar stratosphere response strongly depends on the ENSO types, differs between the hemispheres, and changes from the lower to middle stratosphere. The main inter-hemispheric asymmetry manifests in response to the EP El Niño, which is not significant in the Southern Hemisphere, while CP events are associated with pronounced weakening in the polar vortex in both hemispheres. The weakening in the stratospheric polar vortex arguably results from the intensification in the wave flux from the troposphere into the stratosphere and is accompanied by increased heat transport. The latter causes stratospheric warming in the Artic and Antarctic and slows zonal currents. The response of the lower stratosphere circulation to ENSO is approximately the opposite to that of the middle stratosphere. Full article

The impact on the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio from Arctic sea ice loss is investigated using the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) model for their important roles during climate change. Results show that the Gulf Stream (Kuroshio) weakens (strengthens) in response to Arctic sea ice loss via ocean (atmosphere) adjustments. More precisely, the Kuroshio acceleration is mainly due to the anomalous wind stress over the North Pacific, while the ocean gyre adjustments in the Atlantic are responsible for the weakened Gulf Stream. As positive buoyancy fluxes induced by Arctic sea ice loss trigger a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Gulf Stream decelerates evidently and the current speed decreases by about 5–8 cm/s in the upper ocean. Resulting from less advection and horizontal diffusion in the temperature budget, less poleward warm water leads to narrow sea surface cooling sandwiched between strong warming in the subpolar and subtropical Atlantic. Furthermore, colder surface decreases the upward heat flux (mainly latent heat flux) along the Gulf Stream Extension (GE) path, which leads to a warming hole in the atmosphere. Full article

The tropical Atlantic Warm Pool is one of the main drivers of the marine intertropical convergence zone and the associated coastal Northeast Brazilian and West-African monsoons. Its meridional displacement is driven by the solar cycle, modulated by the atmosphere and ocean interactions, whose nature and respective proportions are still poorly understood. This paper presents a climatological study of the upper ocean and lower atmosphere contributions to the warm pool seasonal migration, using an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM). First, we provide quantitative, albeit simple, pieces of evidence on how the large amplitude of migration in the west, compared to the east, is mainly due to the strong east–west contrast of the background meridional SST gradient intensities, which is maintained by equatorial and eastern tropical upwellings. Our main results consist first in identifying a diagnostic equation for the migration speed of the two meridional boundary isotherms of the Warm Pool, expressed in terms of the various mixed-layer heat fluxes. We then evidence and quantify how, in general, the migration is forced by air–sea fluxes, and damped by ocean circulation. However, remarkable controls by the ocean are identified in some specific regions. In particular, in the northwestern part of the Warm Pool, characterized by a large temperature inversion area, the boreal spring northward movement speed depends on the restitution of the solar heating by the thermocline. Additionally, over the southern part of the Warm Pool, our study quantifies the key role of the equatorial upwelling, which, depending on the longitude, significantly accelerates or slows down the summer poleward migration. Full article

This study investigates the physical processes controlling the mixed layer buoyancy using a regional configuration of an ocean general circulation model. Processes are quantified by using a linearized equation of state, a mixed-layer heat, and a salt budget. Model results correctly reproduce the observed seasonal near-surface density tendencies. The results indicate that the heat flux is located poleward of 10° of latitude, which is at least three times greater than the freshwater flux that mainly controls mixed layer buoyancy. During boreal spring-summer of each hemisphere, the freshwater flux partly compensates the heat flux in terms of buoyancy loss while, during the fall-winter, they act together. Under the seasonal march of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone and in coastal areas affected by the river, the contribution of ocean processes on the upper density becomes important. Along the north Brazilian coast and the Gulf of Guinea, horizontal and vertical processes involving salinity are the main contributors to an upper water change with a contribution of at least twice as much the temperature. At the equator and along the Senegal-Mauritanian coast, vertical processes are the major oceanic contributors. This is mainly due to the vertical gradient of temperature at the mixed layer base in the equator while the salinity one dominates along the Senegal-Mauritania coast. Full article