Search Results (811)

This study uses multidimensional indicators of macroeconomics, supply and demand, cost, and market microstructure to construct an intelligent framework integrated with optimized Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) denoising for price forecasting and black early warning for egg futures in China from 2014 to 2023. Black early warning serves as a non-parametric early warning method that identifies abnormal price increases and falls based on historical fluctuation thresholds. As the first livestock future contract listed in China, accurate egg price forecasting is crucial for risk prevention and market control and regulation. First, LASSO regression was used to screen the core driving factors of egg futures prices. Nine key indicators were identified and input into the hybrid Temporal Convolutional Network–Gated Recurrent Unit (TCN-GRU) prediction model. To address the high-frequency noise in the original price series, two-dimensional optimization was performed on traditional EWMA denoising to achieve more adaptive noise filtering. By applying the black early warning method, the obtained future egg price fluctuations were more consistent with the actual situation. In addition, empirical analysis of multi-horizon forecasting and early warning for t + 1, t + 5, and t + 10 was carried out to further verify the model’s prediction accuracy. The results show that compared with the single TCN model, the single GRU model, and the TCN-GRU model without denoising, the TCN-GRU model integrated with optimized EWMA denoising achieves better prediction performance on the test set. In terms of the early warning matching rate, it reaches 83.33% for the t + 1 horizon, and the prediction accuracy for the t + 5 and t + 10 horizons decreases regularly but remains stable above 60%. In contrast, the highest early warning matching rate of the model without denoising is only 22.22% across all horizons, which has no practical early warning value. The early warning signals generated by the optimized EWMA denoising-based TCN-GRU model can effectively identify abnormal sharp rises and falls in egg futures prices, providing effective support for hedging and risk management for market participants. The study’s limitations are discussed, as well as future research directions. The findings provide a basis for decision making for agricultural producers and future investors and support the development of China’s agricultural product market. Full article

Background: Sortilin (SORT1), linked to the 1p13.3 coronary risk locus, is implicated in lipid trafficking and atherogenesis; however, clinical studies of circulating SORT1 have produced inconsistent results. We evaluated whether circulating SORT1 is associated with angiographic burden and lesion localization in patients with premature or early clinical debut coronary atherosclerosis. Methods: This single-center, cross-sectional study analyzed a dataset collected from January to May 2023. Participants were classified as coronary atherosclerosis cases if the dataset contained an age of clinical debut of clinically significant atherosclerosis (n = 101). Controls had no recorded debut age and 0% stenosis in all assessed coronary segments (n = 27). Blood was collected in clot activator tubes; serum was stored at −40 °C until analysis. SORT1 (ng/mL) was measured using an Aviscera Bioscience ELISA. Coronary stenoses were recorded as percent diameter stenosis for left main (LM), proximal/mid/distal LAD, proximal/mid/distal LCx, and proximal/mid/distal RCA. Burden metrics included the number of segments with any stenosis (>0%), the number of obstructive segments (≥50%), the number of diseased vessels, and maximum stenosis. The prespecified primary endpoint was obstructive proximal LAD stenosis (≥50%). Nonparametric tests and Spearman correlations were used. Logistic regression evaluated the association between log2-transformed SORT1 and proximal LAD obstruction, adjusted for age, sex, LDL-C, statin use, and smoking/diabetes/hypertension durations. Results: SORT1 was higher in cases than controls (8.60 [2.60–17.10] vs. 2.30 [1.25–10.65] ng/mL; p = 0.0058). Within cases, SORT1 did not correlate with global angiographic burden (any-stenosis segments: ρ = −0.066, p = 0.513; obstructive segments: ρ = −0.060, p = 0.552; diseased vessels: ρ = −0.045, p = 0.652; maximum stenosis: ρ = −0.084, p = 0.403). Obstructive proximal LAD stenosis occurred in 44/101 (43.6%) and was associated with higher SORT1 (12.25 [4.18–17.45] vs. 4.10 [2.20–11.60] ng/mL; p = 0.0093). Each doubling of SORT1 was independently associated with proximal LAD obstruction (adjusted OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.12–1.95; p = 0.005). Conclusions: In this cross-sectional cohort, circulating SORT1 was associated with obstructive proximal LAD stenosis but not with global angiographic burden metrics. These findings are hypothesis-generating and warrant validation in independent cohorts with standardized preanalytics and prospective designs to assess temporal relationships and clinical utility. Full article

Objective: This study compared the clinical and patient-reported outcomes of Er: YAG laser-assisted versus conventional scalpel frenectomy, while evaluating the adjunctive impact of postoperative antimicrobial mouthwashes on wound healing and periodontal parameters. Methods: A total of 102 patients who underwent labial frenectomy were included in this retrospective longitudinal cohort study. Participants were allocated into four groups based on the surgical approach (Er: YAG laser or conventional scalpel) and the postoperative mouthwash protocol (Kloroben^® or Klorhex Plus^®). Clinical assessments were performed at baseline and at 7, 14, and 28 days postoperatively. Wound healing, evaluated using the Wound Healing Index, was defined as the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included periodontal clinical parameters, epithelialization status, postoperative pain, bleeding, and analgesic consumption. To control potential confounders, multivariable regression analysis was performed alongside standard parametric and nonparametric tests, with p < 0.05 considered statistically significant. Results: All treatment protocols resulted in significant improvements over time (p < 0.001). However, Er: YAG laser–assisted frenectomy was associated with significantly better periodontal indices, superior wound-healing scores, and more favorable patient-reported outcomes than the conventional scalpel technique at all postoperative evaluations (p < 0.001). On day 7, ‘Very Good’ healing was observed in 70.2% of the laser groups, compared with 14.4% in the CS groups (p = 0.001). Group 4 showed the lowest mean VAS scores (0.04 ± 0.20) and the lowest analgesic consumption by day 7. Multivariable analysis confirmed that the surgical technique was the strongest independent predictor of superior wound healing (p < 0.05), regardless of age, gender, smoking, or systemic disease. Notably, frenulum type was not significantly associated with wound healing or pain outcomes (p > 0.05). Conclusions: Within the limitations of this study, Er: YAG laser-assisted frenectomy was observed to provide favorable wound healing outcomes compared to the conventional technique. Furthermore, our findings show that anatomical variations in frenulum type do not significantly influence the quality or speed of recovery. These findings suggest that the choice of surgical modality and postoperative chemical support are more critical determinants of early clinical success than the anatomical variations of the frenulum. Full article

When measurement invariance (MI) is violated in multi-group structural equation models, group-specific measurement artifacts inflate the between-group variance of structural parameters beyond their true values. Existing remedies—partial invariance, group-specific estimation, or moderation analysis—address the consequences of inflation but not its mechanism. This article introduces the stabilizer variable, a covariate that absorbs measurement-induced parameter heterogeneity while maintaining structural independence from the focal relationship. Two theoretical results are established: a variance decomposition theorem showing that MI violations inflate dispersion through an identifiable artifactual component, and a purification theorem proving that a stabilizer reduces this dispersion via Frisch–Waugh–Lovell projection. Two stabilization mechanisms are identified: variance purification (Type A) and directional alignment (Type B). We then develop the stabilizer variable test, a dual-criterion procedure combining nonparametric bootstrap testing for stabilization magnitude with binomial testing for directional consistency, incorporating adaptive MI severity scoring with calibrated fit-index weights. Simulations comprising 949,100 replications across varying group counts, sample sizes, and MI severity levels demonstrate 80–99% power with false-positive rates below 2%. Practical guidelines recommend $K\ge 10$ groups and $n\ge 100$ per group for conservative applications. The framework generalizes to any multi-group regression context where systematic measurement error induces spurious parameter heterogeneity. Full article

This cross-sectional study compared somatometric, training, and behavioral characteristics of adult exercisers in Greece, contrasting self-identified resistance-training practitioners with recreational exercisers. A total of 1187 adults completed a structured questionnaire capturing demographics, self-reported height and weight (BMI), weekly training frequency, session duration, competition participation, and self-reported use of performance-enhancing substances. Given non-normal distributions, analyses used nonparametric tests, binary logistic regression, and two-step cluster analysis based on the elbow method. Resistance-training practitioners reported higher BMI, greater weekly training frequency, and longer session duration than recreational exercisers (all p < 0.001). Substance use was more prevalent among resistance-training practitioners and exhibited a marked gender asymmetry, with anabolic-agent use concentrated among men. A logistic regression predicting competition participation identified age, BMI, gender, and education as significant predictors; the model explained a modest proportion of variance (Nagelkerke R² = 0.10). Cluster analysis produced four distinct participant profiles differing in BMI, training intensity, and behavioral orientation. These results indicate systematic somatometric and behavioral differences between exercise orientations and demonstrate the utility of multivariate profiling for characterizing heterogeneity in exercise engagement. Findings should be interpreted cautiously because all anthropometric and substance-use measures were self-reported, and BMI cannot distinguish lean from fat mass in resistance-trained populations; future research should prioritize representative sampling and objective somatometric assessment. Full article

Interval-censored survival data arise frequently in biomedical and epidemiological studies where event times are observed only within observation intervals. Classical non-parametric estimators, such as the Kaplan–Meier (KM) estimator under imputation and the Turnbull estimator, often suffer from instability, irregular fluctuations, and overfitting when sample sizes are small or when the prevalence rate is low. Recent methodological developments, which include smoothed and penalized approaches, have been proposed to improve stability and reduce estimation error in such settings. This study evaluates and benchmarks the finite-sample performance of a nonparametric penalized likelihood KM estimator under interval-censored data. The method is compared with the classical KM estimator using four imputation strategies, that is, midpoint, regression, uniform, and multiple imputation. From a symmetry perspective, midpoint and uniform imputation preserve interval symmetry through deterministic and probabilistic mechanisms, respectively, whereas regression and multiple imputation intentionally introduce structural asymmetry to reflect data-driven risk heterogeneity and distributional uncertainty. To assess and benchmark the performance of the penalized KM estimator, an extensive Monte Carlo (MC) simulation study was conducted across varying sample sizes and prevalence rates using error-based metrics. The MC simulation results revealed that the nonparametric penalized KM estimator consistently outperforms the classical KM estimator in small samples across all prevalence rates. The gains are more pronounced under low prevalence rates where the penalized KM estimator is superior for small to relatively moderate samples of $n\approx$ 40–100. Among the imputation techniques, regression and multiple imputation generally exhibited superior performance. Real data application further confirms these findings, demonstrating that the nonparametric penalized KM estimator yields more stable and accurate survival curves than the classical KM estimator in small samples. Full article

This paper examines the connection between Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors and the risk of geopolitics, as defined by the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index. The concept of geopolitical risk is conventionally defined as the direct result of political incidents, war, and international tensions. The current study argues that the concept should be understood in a more structural and sustainable manner, relating to the underlying forces driving geopolitical risk. The main research question is whether and how the three pillars of ESG factors contribute to explaining and understanding cross-country and over-time variations in geopolitical risk. In an effort to avoid information loss associated with the ESG index’s aggregate nature, the three factors are considered separately and the three pillars are analyzed individually. The empirical context is a balanced cross-country panel dataset including 42 countries over the 2000–2023 time period. Data for the three factors are obtained from the World Bank dataset to standardize and compare data across countries and over time. The GPR index measures the level of geopolitical risk and is defined by Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello. The GPR index captures the level of geopolitical tensions by analyzing media signals. The combination of the three sources enables direct connections and correlations among the three factors and the internationally recognized GPR index. The paper uses an integrated methodological approach that combines results from three distinct methods. The first method uses panel data analysis to estimate average marginal effects while controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. The second method uses clustering to identify structural patterns and divide countries into groups based on their unique characteristics and risk profiles. The third method uses machine learning regressions and nonparametric analysis to capture the complex relationships and interactions in the data. The three-step method is used for each pillar to ensure consistency and comparability. The results suggest that the three factors contribute to the GPR index in a unique manner. The environment and energy structure contribute to the GPR index as a risk multiplier; the social factor relates to exposure to instability; and the governance factor is a central stabilizing factor. The paper makes a unique contribution to the literature by defining the three factors and their relationship to the GPR index in a clear, sustainable manner. Full article

Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) are promising minimally invasive biomarkers for cancer risk assessment, yet prospective evidence for breast cancer (BC) remains limited. We conducted a nested case–control study within a prospective cohort to examine whether pre-diagnostic circulating miRNAs are associated with subsequent BC risk and to explore their potential relevance in prospective population-based settings. Baseline serum from 160 women (80 incident BC cases; 80 matched controls) was analyzed, with a median time to diagnosis of 8.9 years. Eight candidate miRNAs were quantified by droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) and normalized to miR-484. Group differences were evaluated by non-parametric tests, and odds ratios for BC were estimated using logistic regression models adjusted for established risk factors, with Bonferroni correction for multiple testing. Cases and controls were comparable at baseline. Among the candidates, lower circulating miR-181 levels showed a suggestive inverse association with BC risk in fully adjusted models, while lower Let7 levels showed only a non-significant, hypothesis-generating inverse trend that did not survive Bonferroni correction. No other miRNA displayed clear associations with BC risk. These findings, while preliminary, support further large-scale prospective investigations specifically designed to assess predictive performance and external validation. employing standardized pre-analytical and analytical protocols, repeated sampling, and independent replication/external validation to clarify the etiologic relevance and potential risk-prediction value of circulating miRNAs for BC. Full article

Background: Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) infection is common in childhood and frequently accompanied by liver enzyme abnormalities. Although hepatic involvement is generally self-limited, pediatric data on predictors of hepatitis and biochemical recovery dynamics remain limited. This study aimed to evaluate the frequency and severity of hepatic involvement in children with primary EBV infection and identify clinical and laboratory features associated with hepatitis. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included children aged 0–18 years with serologically confirmed primary EBV infection at a tertiary center between January 2015 and November 2024. Patients with cytomegalovirus co-infection, hepatotropic viral infections, chronic liver disease, hepatotoxic drug exposure, or incomplete records were excluded. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected. Hepatic involvement was defined as ALT elevation above age-adjusted upper limits. Group comparisons utilized appropriate parametric and non-parametric tests, and logistic regression assessed predictors of hepatitis. Results: A total of 294 patients were included (median age: 6.1 years), of whom 48.6% were male. Hepatitis occurred in 59.2% of cases. Children with hepatitis were older than those without (median 6.7 vs. 5.3 years, p < 0.001). Logistic regression demonstrated that increasing age independently predicted hepatitis (odds ratio per year increase: 1.010; 95%CI 1.005–1.015; p < 0.001). Median time to ALT normalization was 20 days, and no patient developed acute liver failure. Conclusions: Hepatic involvement is common in pediatric EBV infection and is more frequent in older children. Despite significant biochemical abnormalities, all patients recovered fully with supportive care. Recognizing age-related risk and typical recovery patterns may reduce unnecessary investigations and guide appropriate management in pediatric EBV hepatitis. Full article

Advanced glycation end products (AGEs) such as Nε-carboxymethyllysine (CML) and Nε-carboxyethyllysine (CEL) are implicated in chronic disease processes in humans and may serve as biomarkers of dietary exposure and metabolic health. Urinary measurement of AGEs is of interest due to its non-invasive nature and relevance to biobanking and field-based sample collection; however, AGE stability in urine under common handling conditions has been poorly characterized. This study evaluates the short-term stability of CML and CEL in canine urine stored at room temperature (20 °C) for up to 168 h prior to −80 °C storage. Midstream free-catch urine samples from eight healthy dogs were aliquoted, stored at defined intervals, and analyzed in duplicate using liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (LC-MS) with isotope-labeled standards. Results demonstrate minimal detectable changes in CML and CEL concentrations, as well as in the CML/CEL ratio, over the ambient storage period. Inter-replicate agreement is high, and regression and non-parametric analyses show no association between storage duration and analyte concentration. These findings indicate that urinary CML and CEL measurements may remain reliable despite delayed processing, supporting field-based sampling and retrospective analyses. Evaluation of additional AGE species and storage conditions will further inform best practices for sample handling in veterinary and comparative biomedical research. Full article

(1) Background: Electrical cardioversion (ECV) is effective in restoring sinus rhythm (SR) in atrial fibrillation (AF), but the extent of atrioventricular remodeling and determinants of short-term rhythm maintenance remain unclear. This study evaluated echocardiographic changes following ECV and explored parameters associated with SR persistence. (2) Methods: We prospectively enrolled 94 patients undergoing elective ECV and performed comprehensive echocardiography before, 24 h after, and 30 days after the procedure. Rhythm status was assessed at scheduled follow-up visits. Due to the limited sample size, failure to meet the assumptions required for regression analyses, and non-normal data distributions, the analyses were primarily non-parametric and exploratory. (3) Results: Among 94 patients (mean age 65.9 +/− 9.3 years; 69% male), SR was maintained in 76 patients at 24 h and 49 patients at 30 days. Patients with sustained SR showed progressive improvement in LA reservoir strain, LA emptying fraction, and LA stiffness index, consistent with reverse atrial remodeling. Left ventricular (LV) function also improved, including LV ejection fraction, global longitudinal strain, and myocardial work indices. Between-group analyses identified several baseline LV parameters (including global wasted work, global work efficiency, LV end-systolic volume, LV end-systolic diameter, and global work index) with moderate effect sizes and possible association with short-term SR maintenance. (4) Conclusions: Successful ECV is associated with significant short-term atrioventricular functional improvement. In this exploratory single-center cohort, selected LV mechanical parameters were associated with short-term SR maintenance, while LA functional parameters mainly reflected reverse remodeling after rhythm restoration. Larger studies with longer follow-up and adjusted analyses are needed. Full article

Introduction: Stereotactic radiotherapy (SRT) is increasingly used in oligometastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and is known to elicit systemic immune effects, although the underlying mechanisms remain not fully understood. Methods: In this prospective pilot study, we evaluated plasma cytokine variations in 19 patients with oligometastatic or oligoprogressive NSCLC undergoing SRT. Peripheral blood samples were collected before treatment (T0) and one month after SRT (T1) and the concentrations of nine cytokines (IFN-γ, IL-1β, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IL-12p70, IL-17A and TNF-α) were quantified using a multiplex Luminex assay. Non-parametric tests and Cox regression models were used to investigate associations between cytokine levels, clinical variables, systemic treatments, and survival outcomes. SRT induced significant post-treatment increases in IFN-γ, IL-2, and IL-6, consistent with systemic pro-inflammatory activation and T-cell stimulation. Cytokine dynamics were influenced by patient- and tumor-related factors: female sex was associated with higher IL-2 and TNF-α levels; oncogene-addicted tumors showed lower IL-6 levels; and oligoprogressive disease exhibited attenuated cytokine variations compared with metachronous oligometastatic disease. Tyrosine kinase inhibitors were associated with globally reduced cytokine levels and blunted IL-1/IL-2 changes, whereas patients receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors displayed higher IL-2 and IL-6 concentrations and greater post-SRT increases in IFN-γ. Oncogene-addicted status and IL-12 variation emerged as independent predictors of overall survival and a composite model integrating these variables significantly stratified prognosis. Conclusions: These findings suggest that SRT triggers measurable systemic immune activation in oligometastatic NSCLC, which is further shaped by tumor biology, disease burden, and concomitant systemic therapies. Although limited by the small sample size, this study supports the feasibility and potential utility of cytokine profiling to refine patient selection and guide biomarker-driven combinations of SRT with targeted and immune-based treatments, warranting validation in larger prospective cohorts. Full article

Background/Objectives: Accurate preoperative discrimination between women with ovarian pathology and healthy controls, as well as between benign and malignant ovarian tumors, remains challenging. This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of osteopontin and galectin-7 on the diagnosis of ovarian tumors. Methods: This prospective single-center case–control study was conducted at the Third Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology, School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, between 2018 and 2024. Preoperative serum levels of osteopontin, galectin-7, and established tumor markers (CA-125, CA19-9, CA15-3, CEA, AFP) were analyzed. Biomarker distributions were compared using non-parametric tests. Associations with clinical variables were explored using correlation analyses. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to assess diagnostic performance. Results: The study population included 116 women: 52 healthy controls, 45 patients with benign ovarian tumors, and 19 patients with malignant ovarian tumors. Serum osteopontin and galectin-7 levels did not differ significantly between control and study group (p = 0.562 and p = 0.138, respectively), nor between benign and malignant tumors (p = 0.784 and p = 0.140, respectively). Osteopontin showed no discriminatory ability (AUC = 0.47), while galectin-7 demonstrated weak discrimination (AUC = 0.63). A combined model yielded modest improvement (AUC = 0.69), remaining below clinically meaningful thresholds. CA-125 was the only biomarker significantly associated with malignancy (OR = 1.03, p = 0.038). Galectin-7 levels were higher in premenopausal women and inversely correlated with age, suggesting demographic rather than malignant influence. Conclusions: Despite strong biological relevance, circulating osteopontin and galectin-7 did not provide meaningful diagnostic discrimination between women with ovarian pathology and healthy controls or between benign and malignant ovarian tumors. CA-125 remained the most informative serum marker in this setting. Future efforts should focus on multi-marker strategies integrated with imaging and clinical assessment. Full article

Background and Objectives: This study aimed to compare coronary plaque characteristics between Asian and European populations undergoing coronary CT angiography and to examine associations between cardiovascular risk factors and coronary artery calcification. Materials and Methods: In this retrospective, two-center, cross-sectional observational study, 1591 adult patients (1203 of Asian and 388 of European descent) referred for coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) due to suspected coronary artery disease between 2008 and 2025 were included. Demographic, clinical characteristics, and laboratory data were obtained from medical records. Computed tomography (CT) was performed on different CT scanners, including a 64-slice Siemens SOMATOM Definition AS, a 250-slice Siemens SOMATOM, a 640-slice multi-detector Canon Aquilion ONE, and a 128-slice multi-detector GE Revolution scanner with prospective cardiac synchronization and 0.6 mm slice reconstruction. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores were quantified using automated software “Vitrea”. Associations between ethnicity, cardiovascular risk factors, and CAC were assessed using non-parametric analyses and multivariable regression models. Stata 18 software was used for all statistical analyses. Results: European participants demonstrated a higher prevalence of obesity, hypertension, tobacco use, and alcohol consumption compared with Asian participants. The prevalence of CAC > 0 was higher in Europeans than in Asians (60.6% vs. 50.3%, p < 0.01). European individuals were independently associated with CAC presence in multivariable analysis. Multivessel (≥2-vessel) stenosis and calcified plaques were more frequently observed in Europeans, whereas non-calcified and low-density plaques predominated among Asians. Conclusions: Within this referral-based cohort, differences in coronary plaque characteristics were observed between the studied groups within this clinical CCTA cohort. The European group was associated with a higher prevalence of calcified plaques, whereas non-calcified and low-density plaques were more frequently observed among Asian participants. These findings show associations between ethnicity and plaque characteristics within a clinical cohort and require confirmation in prospective studies. Full article

This study examined general attitudes toward animals among staff working in licensed animal hospitals in Türkiye. Using the 10-item Animal Attitude Scale (AAS-10), an online survey was administered to animal hospital staff; 193 questionnaires were completed from 17 provinces. Because total scores deviated from normality, group comparisons were conducted using non-parametric tests, and a multiple linear regression model was fitted to examine joint associations with demographic and professional variables. Overall, participants reported generally positive attitudes (mean AAS-10 = 36.7 ± 5.85; range 10–50). Women scored higher than men (p < 0.001), and respondents aged 20–29 years scored higher than those aged ≥40 years (p = 0.029) in unadjusted comparisons; however, the age pattern was small and did not persist after adjustment for gender and other covariates. Professional variables, including occupational role and length of service, were not meaningfully associated with total scores. Exploratory item-level analyses suggested gender-related differences in acceptance of specific forms of animal use, but these should be interpreted cautiously given multiple comparisons. These findings provide a descriptive baseline of AAS-10 scores in a heterogeneous animal hospital workforce and support hypothesis generation for future research that incorporates practice-specific measures. Full article