Search Results (33)

Background: Metacognition refers to the ability to reflect on and regulate cognitive processes. Despite advances in neuroimaging and lesion studies, its neural correlates, as well as their interplay with other cognitive domains, remain poorly understood. The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) is proposed as a potential substrate for metacognitive processing due to its contribution to evaluating and integrating reward-related information, decision-making, and self-monitoring. Methods: This study examined OFC involvement in metacognition using transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) while participants performed a two-alternative forced choice task with confidence ratings to assess their metacognitive sensitivity. Before stimulation, the subjects completed the Metacognitions Questionnaire-30 and a monetary intertemporal choice task for the quantification of delay discounting. Results: Linear mixed-effects models showed that anodal tDCS over the left OFC reduced participants’ metacognitive sensitivity compared to sham stimulation, leaving perceptual decision-making accuracy unaffected. Moreover, real stimulation increased self-reported confidence ratings compared to the sham. Significant correlations were found between metacognitive sensitivity and negative beliefs about thinking. Conclusions: These results highlight the potential involvement of the OFC in the processing of retrospective second-order judgments about decision-making performance. Additionally, they support the notion that OFC overstimulation contributes to metacognitive dysfunctions detected in clinical conditions, such as difficulties in assessing the reliability of one’s thoughts and decision outcomes. Full article

The impact of digital transformation on agricultural sustainability has attracted significant attention, and empirical methods are widely being used to provide a scientific framework for research in this field. However, commonly used digitalization indicators based on the entropy method are prone to distortion due to outliers and the influence of selected evaluation factors. Yet, empirical studies often overlook the heterogeneity in the measurement of explanatory variables, which potentially produces biased estimates. This study addresses these gaps by constructing a digitalization index based on text recognition named the Baidu Index and by employing a dynamic panel model to systematically analyze the intertemporal effects of digitalization on agricultural sustainability across 31 Chinese provinces. The key findings reveal that digitalization not only directly enhances agricultural sustainability but also exerts positive moderating effects through agricultural production, industrial structure, and technological progress. Critically, the results are slightly different when the choices are between absolute and relative units for agricultural carbon emissions and green total factor productivity, highlighting the necessity for standardized measurement frameworks in future research. Practically, policymakers should prioritize rural digital infrastructure investment and narrow the digital divide caused by institutional and technological factors. This study provides both a novel analytical framework and actionable insights for advancing sustainable agriculture in the digital era. Full article

This study investigates the cognitive processes underlying chess expertise by examining planning, cognitive reflection, inter-temporal choice, and risky choice in chess players. The study involves 25 chess players and 25 non-chess players, comparing their performance on the Tower of London (TOL) task, Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT), inter-temporal choice (ITC), and risky choice tasks. Results indicate that chess players outperform non-chess players in TOL and CRT, showing superior planning and cognitive reflection abilities. Chess players also prefer future rewards over immediate ones in ITC, suggesting a higher propensity for future more rewarding options. In risky choice tasks, chess players made more decisions based on expected value than non-chess players, but the evidence in favour of differences between groups is very weak. Despite this study not being able to establish causality, the findings highlight the cognitive advantages associated with chess expertise and suggest potential areas for further research on the transfer of cognitive skills from chess to other domains and differences in general abilities between experts and novices. Full article

Intertemporal decision making is the process by which individuals make judgments or choices regarding outcomes that occur at different times. Although intertemporal decision making is widely investigated, most studies explore it in terms of individual decision making, while neglecting group decision making, which holds more practical significance and adaptive value. This study recommends adopting a “two-process” approach that uses self-assessment questionnaires, audiovisual recordings, and visual decision-making tools to quantify interpersonal interaction processes and information processing in group intertemporal decision-making settings. In this way, studies can reveal the psychological and theoretical mechanisms of the group intertemporal decision-making process. At the level of interpersonal interaction processes, such an approach can identify the differential mechanisms between group and individual intertemporal decision making. In terms of information processing, it can reveal the mechanisms of the decision-making process in group intertemporal decision making. The findings of such work can provide a basis for interventions and nudges that encourage more visionary group intertemporal decision making. Full article

Chinese farmers, especially small ones, always sell their food at low prices during harvest season rather than storing it for a better price. Based on a theoretical framework of expected utility, this paper examines the mechanism by which risk perception affects farmers’ timing choices of food sales and the role played by risk preference, utilizing data from the 2019 China Family Database and the China Household Finance Survey of farmers in six provinces of the main wheat-producing regions. This study shows that farmers with a high risk perception are more likely to choose current sales compared with intertemporal sales. The channel and mechanism analysis finds that increased risk perception leads to risky returns from intertemporal sales lower than certain returns from current sales in utility comparisons. It is further found that risk preference has a substitution effect on risk perception in farmers’ intertemporal food sales. Full article

Diet-related diseases impact populations across the globe. While intertemporal preferences—a fundamental preference for the distribution of benefits across time—have been used to explain low-quality food choices, the recent literature proposes another cause: inattention to the future implications (or opportunity costs) of the options faced. Food choices tend to become habitual to conserve cognitive resources, rather than carefully modeling future health impacts. Both low discount rates for future benefits and attention to future health impacts predict healthier decisions. While intertemporal preferences are stable, attention may provide an opportunity to intervene in the decision process to promote healthier decisions. In this study, we test the impact of a simple message that highlights health during food choice on the healthiness of the foods chosen and on health consideration and intertemporal preferences. Our results show that actively considering health outcomes and lower discount rates lead to healthier food choices. We find that messaging increases the consideration of health outcomes during food choice but does not affect intertemporal preferences, suggesting that simple prompts may be an effective way to promote decisions balancing short- and long-term benefits by drawing attention to the overlooked opportunity costs of choices. Full article

To solve the problem of the insufficient driving force and low adoption rate of conservation tillage adoption and to enhance the effect of industrial organization in influencing technology diffusion, this paper explored the relationship and the mechanism of perceived organizational support and inter-temporal choice in the adoption of conservation tillage by using micro-research data from 725 melon farmers in the Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces in China and by applying the experimental economics method to obtain the inter-temporal choices of the farmers. This paper also analyzed farmers’ risk preferences’ moderating effect on the relationship between inter-temporal choice and conservation tillage. Additionally, it examined the impact of perceived organizational support on the differentiation of different conservation tillage technologies. The study found that perceived organizational support significantly contributes to adopting zero tillage and minimum tillage, and water-saving irrigation. Perceived organizational support was not conducive to farmers’ adoption of furrow and ridge tillage. The impact of perceived organizational support on technology adoption is heterogeneous, depending on the differences in the size of the family’s cultivated land. The inter-temporal choice of farmers significantly impedes the adoption of conservation tillage. The increase in risk preference helps alleviate the hindering effect of inter-temporal choice on farmers’ adoption of conservation tillage. Perceived organizational support can promote the adoption of conservation tillage by reducing farmers’ inter-temporal choices. Inter-temporal choice is an essential mechanism by which perceived organizational support affects the adoption of conservation tillage. Compared with the existing studies, this paper incorporates the technology-attribute-induced inter-temporal choice of farmers into the impact analysis framework and considers the relationship between perceived organizational support, inter-temporal choice, and the adoption of conservation tillage and the mechanism of its action. The findings of the study provide a theoretical basis for the enrichment of incentive mechanisms for the adoption of conservation tillage, which is of great significance for the improvement of the tool for the integration of small farmers in developing countries into the industrial activities of the new agricultural business central bodies and for promoting the diffusion of conservation tillage in agriculture. Full article

The inherent stochasticity of electric operation vehicle (EOV) charging poses challenges to the stability and efficiency of regional power distribution networks. Existing charging behavior decision-making models often prioritize revenue considerations, neglecting the influence of multi-time-span characteristics and the potential irrationality of EOV owners. To address these limitations, this study proposes a comprehensive framework encompassing three aspects. First, operational data are statistically analyzed to reconstruct EOV operation scenarios, establishing a dynamic charging scheme tailored to multi-time-span characteristics. Second, an improved ITCH model is developed using operational equivalent change to incorporate both gains and losses. Third, a WFL framework is employed to integrate the perceptual attenuation of revenue into the ITCH model. Simulation results show that decision-makers (DMs) demonstrate a preference for charging schemes with high equivalent perceived revenues and low time costs. Moreover, when the charging price is doubled, revenue perception attenuation leads decision-makers to postpone their charging behavior. Compared to other models, the equivalent perception intertemporal choice heuristics (EP-ITCH) charging model results in reduced load peaks, valleys, and variances on the grid side. This study highlights the model’s effectiveness and accuracy in optimizing EOV charging infrastructure. Full article

In this study, we propose a groundbreaking hypothesis for the evolution of reciprocal altruism, suggesting its emergence from random encounters characterized by theft rather than the traditionally accepted cooperative reciprocation and intertemporal choice. We challenge the conventional theory, critiquing its circular reasoning that presupposes cooperation to explain its own origin. Our approach posits that theft, when passively tolerated during times of abundance, does not negatively impact survival and reproduction. This leads to a novel understanding of cooperation as a form of “tolerated theft”. To support our theory, we developed a Python-based simulation model that succinctly demonstrates how this mechanism could operate. Our key finding is that in environments where theft is tolerated, offspring may evolve to overlook such acts, eventually emerging as reliable reciprocators in times of scarcity. This hypothesis, while potentially controversial due to its originality, opens up new perspectives on the accidental evolution of reciprocal altruism and encourages a reevaluation of the fundamental mechanisms driving cooperative behaviors. Full article

This study formulates a mathematical dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model within a rational expectations framework, adhering to neo-classical principles. It emphasizes the significant role of agents’ expectations in determining the broader economic trajectory over time. The model combines microeconomic and macroeconomic perspectives by merging the concept of intertemporal choice with savings behavior. Its mathematical foundations are derived and calibrated using data from a social accounting matrix to enhance its simulation capabilities. The paper presents a practical simulation investigating the economic implications of a strategic investment impact within an specific European region, Madrid as the case of study. Such demand shock affects sectors such as electronics, food, pharmaceuticals, and education. The study models the long-term effects of heightened investment and persistent demand-side shocks. The research demonstrates the CGE model’s ability to forecast economic shifts toward a new equilibrium after an investment shock, proving its utility for assessing the impacts of extensive environmental policies within a European context. The work’s originality lies in its detailed mathematical formulation, contributing to theoretical discourse and practical application in business analytics. Full article

Following the financial crisis of the last decade and the increasing complexity of financial products, the European Union has introduced investor protection tools that require professionals to carry out a client profiling process. The aim is to offer products that are in line with the characteristics of the individual. The classes of variables for comprehensive profiling are obtained by matching the elements proposed by the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive and studies of classical finance. However, behavioural finance studies, which emphasise the importance of behavioural attitudes, are not clearly considered in this structured profiling. The present paper discusses the implementation of an analytic network process to support financial decision-making in a behavioural context, combining regulatory guidance and qualitative and quantitative evidence from the literature. The Kersey Temperament Model is used as the behavioural model to construct the network cluster that incorporates personality into the valuation. Uncertainty management is incorporated through recent studies in the context of intertemporal choice theory. The functionality of the network is verified through a case study, where two alternatives with different characteristics are considered to meet the same investment objective. The present approach proves how the generated structure can provide strong support for financial decision-making. Full article

The study utilizes the Chinese version of the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (ZTPI-C) and a novelty intertemporal prosocial discounting paradigm to explore the preferences of individuals with the Present Impulsive Time Perspective (PITP) and the Future Time Perspective (FTP) in intertemporal prosocial choices, and uncovers the cognitive mechanisms underpinning intertemporal altruism from the personality traits. The findings revealed: (1) The donation behaviors of both groups decreased as time delay rose, aligning with the hyperbolic model. (2) PITP individuals had significantly higher discount rates than those with FTP, and the scores of FTP individuals on the “Future” dimension of the ZTPI-C were positively correlated with the amount of money they were willing to forgo. These results suggest that time perspective, as a stable personality trait, can predict individuals’ intertemporal prosocial preferences. Our research enriches the theory of intertemporal choices and extends the Perceived-time–based model (PTBM) to the domain of intertemporal social preferences. Full article

In the context of online consumption, consumers are often faced with a decision between buying now or later. This study examines intertemporal choice by conducting two mixed experimental designs on a total of 206 college students to investigate the impact of combining sales volume and limited quantity on online consumption decisions. Experiment 1 revealed that under unlimited conditions, the same option with high sales volume was relatively more attractive and participants were more inclined to choose it, leading to a herding effect. However, under limited conditions, there was no scarcity effect. Experiment 2 built upon the findings of Experiment 1 and added dynamic change in sales volume. It was found that even with dynamic changes in sales volume, high sales volumes could still lead to a herding effect. In the case of unlimited conditions, dynamic changes in sales offset the effect of sales volume on intertemporal choice. Sales volume and limited quantity are important factors that influence consumers’ purchasing decisions. Therefore, this study combines sales volume and limited quantity and adds dynamic changes in sales to explore individuals’ intertemporal choices in online consumption situations. The findings of the study have significant implications for both merchants and consumers. Full article

Studying the dynamic duration of technology adoption helps farmers weigh and select different attributes and stages of conservation tillage techniques. In this study, non-parametric K-M survival analysis and discrete duration models were employed to estimate the time taken by farmers in the Yellow River Basin region to transition from awareness to the adoption of conservation tillage techniques between 2002 and 2020. The results indicate (1) The duration from awareness to adoption of conservation tillage technology is relatively short. (2) The likelihood of farmers postponing adoption decisions is highest in the initial 10 years and gradually decreases over time, suggesting negative time dependency. (3) Controlling for proportional hazards assumptions, it was found that factors such as education level and social learning positively influence the duration from awareness to adoption of conservation tillage techniques. Extreme weather variations and household labor migration delay the adoption time for farmers. In the process of promoting and implementing conservation tillage techniques, it is essential to consider the issue of intertemporal technology choice, stimulate farmers’ intrinsic demand, shorten the time interval from awareness to adoption, and ultimately improve technology adoption rates. Full article

We propose a Markov Decision Process Model that blends ideas from Psychological research and Economics to study decision-making in individuals with self-control problems. We have borrowed a dual-process of decision-making with self-awareness from Psychological research, and we introduce present bias in inter-temporal preferences, a phenomenon widely explored in Economics. We allow for both an exogenous and endogenous, state-dependent, present bias in inter-temporal decision-making and explore, by means of numerical simulations, the consequences on well-being emerging from the solution of the model. We show that, over time, self-awareness may mitigate present bias and suboptimal choice behaviour. Full article