Search Results (11)

This article aims to examine how the natural gas market evolved following the price shocks observed between 2020 and 2024, paying particular attention to market integration and the persistence of these shocks. The proposed analysis uses daily price data for the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the main European benchmark traded on the Intercontinental Exchange and quoted in EUR/MWh, as well as Henry Hub (HH), the United States benchmark. These series are combined with a country panel on natural gas production, consumption, and gross domestic product for 59 economies, subject to data availability. The cointegration results show that TTF and HH prices moved together in 2019, but this relationship broke down in 2020 and did not return to its previous pattern in the following years. Granger causality tests point to a one-directional transmission from Henry Hub to Europe. Moreover, GARCH estimates indicate that TTF reacts almost twice as strongly to daily shocks as HH, while volatility remains persistent in both markets. Fixed-effects estimates place the TTF price elasticity of import spending close to 0.5, providing evidence consistent with a causal link between higher natural gas prices and higher domestic energy expenditure. Finally, the clustering analysis complements the econometric modeling by identifying four groups of countries defined by gas import dependency and gas intensity. This classification also offers implications for the global natural gas market since it points to the need for cluster-specific policy approaches rather than a single solution applied to every country. Full article

Under a One Health framework, viruses of veterinary and zoonotic importance pose significant threats to animal and human health, food security, and livelihoods, particularly in regions with intense human–animal interactions. In West Africa, despite recent advances in surveillance programs, important gaps remain in understanding viral diversity and cross-species transmission at wildlife–livestock interfaces. We conducted metagenomic surveillance to characterize viruses circulating across livestock, domestic animals, and wildlife in rural Ghana in 165 animals sampled across five regions. Viral RNA from serum and tissue samples was sequenced with the Illumina platform, and genomes were de novo assembled with MEGAHIT. Phylogenetic relationships were reconstructed using Bayesian approaches. We report the first genomic sequences of porcine parvovirus 3, canine parvovirus, rotavirus A genotype R16, and bovine hepacivirus subtype B from Ghana in over a decade. Phylogenetic analyses revealed intercontinental linkages between Africa and Europe for parvoviruses, persistence of hepacivirus lineages, and evidence of cross-species transmission for rotavirus. Notably, detection in apparently healthy animals highlights underrecognized circulation, gaps in vaccination effectiveness, trade-related biosecurity vulnerabilities, and the role of wildlife in viral maintenance and transmission. Our findings reveal dynamic viral diversity and connectivity across animal populations and ecological interfaces, emphasizing the fluid and interconnected nature of pathogen circulation within One Health systems. By integrating metagenomics and phylogenetics, this study provides a scalable framework for enhancing surveillance capacity, enabling the early detection of emerging threats and informing targeted strategies to mitigate zoonotic and economically important viral diseases in West Africa. Full article

Bluetongue virus (BTV) and epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) are vector-borne orbiviruses that pose an emerging threat to livestock, including cattle and sheep. This review summarizes the global distribution, genetic diversity, and key factors driving their spread along with the existing knowledge gaps and recommendations to mitigate their impact. Both viruses cause hemorrhagic disease in susceptible ruminants and are commonly reported in tropical and subtropical regions including North America, Asia, Africa, Oceania, and some parts of Europe. The geographical distribution of these viruses, encompassing 27 BTV and 7 EHDV serotypes, has shifted, particularly with the recent invasion of BTV-3, 4, and 8 and EHDV-8 serotypes in Europe. Several factors contribute to the recent spread of these viruses such as the distribution of virulent strains by the movement of temperature-dependent Culicoides vectors into new areas due to rapid climate change, the reassortment of viral strains during mixed infections, and unrestricted global trade. These diseases cause significant economic impacts including morbidity, mortality, reduced production, high management costs, and the disruption of international trade. Effective prevention and control strategies are paramount and rely on vaccination, vector control using insecticides, and the destruction of breeding sites, husbandry practices including the isolation and quarantine of infected hosts, restriction of animal movement, prompt diagnosis and identification of circulating strains, and effective surveillance and monitoring plans such as the pre-export and post-import screening of semen used for artificial insemination. However, challenges remain with intercontinental virus spread, live vaccines, and the failure of inactivated vaccines to produce protective immunity against dissimilar strains. Significant knowledge gaps highlight the need for a better scientific understanding and a strategic plan to ensure healthy livestock and global food security. Full article

Nine viruses of the bean common mosaic virus subgroup of potyviruses are major international crop pathogens, but their phylogenetically closest relatives from non-crop plants have mostly been found only in SE Asia and Oceania, which is thus likely to be their “centre of emergence”. We have compared over 700 of the complete genomic ORFs of the crop pandemic and the non-crop viruses in various ways. Only one-third of crop virus genomes are non-recombinant, but more than half the non-crop virus genomes are. Four of the viruses were from crops domesticated in the Old World (Africa to SE Asia), and the other five were from New World crops. There was a temporal signal in only three of the crop virus datasets, but it confirmed that the most recent common ancestors of all the crop viruses were before inter-continental marine trade started after 1492 CE, whereas all the crown clusters of the phylogenies are from after that date. The non-crop virus datasets are genetically more diverse than those of the crop viruses, and Tajima’s D analyses showed that their populations were contracting, and only one of the crop viruses had a significantly expanding population. dN/dS analyses showed that most of the genes and codons in all the viruses were under significant negative selection, and the few that were under significant positive selection were mostly in the PIPO-encoding region of the P3 protein, or the PIPO protein itself. Interestingly, more positively selected codons were found in non-crop than in crop viruses, and, as the hosts of the former were taxonomically more diverse than the latter, this may indicate that the positively selected codons are involved in host range determination; AlphaFold3 modelling was used to investigate this possibility. Full article

Natural products of bee origin, despite their complex composition and difficulties in standardization, have been of high interest among scientists representing various disciplines from basic sciences to industrial and practical implementation. As long as their use is monitored and they do not impact human health, they can be considered valuable sources of many chemical compounds and are potentially useful in medicine, food processing, nutrition, etc. However, apart from honey, the general turnover of bee products lacks precise and detailed legal requirements ensuring their quality. The different residues in these products constitute a problem, which has been reported in numerous studies. All products derived from beekeeping are made by bees, but they are also influenced by the environment. Such a dual pathway requires detailed surveillance of hazards stemming from outside and inside the apiary. This should be ensured via harmonized requirements arising from the binding legal acts, especially in international and intercontinental trade zones. Full article

Maritime transport plays a pivotal role in the global economy, facilitating the majority of international trade and serving as a cornerstone for efficient and expansive logistics networks. The proliferation of economic globalisation has resulted in a significant upsurge in intercontinental transactions, thereby fostering the utilisation of ports and shipping enterprises as cost-effective and expeditious means of accessing a wide range of destinations in Europe, Asia, Africa, and North America. The objective of this study is to evaluate the significance of five exogenous variables, namely, GDP per capita, water depth, commodity-type diversification, management model, and European directional division, in relation to the performance of seaports. Measuring the impact of exogenous variables in seaport performance is crucial for understanding how external factors influence efficiency, enabling informed decision-making, and facilitating the development of targeted policies for sustainable and effective port operations. This assessment will be conducted using robust benchmarking analysis methods, specifically the nonparametric order-α model. Several findings suggest that there is a negative relationship between GDP per capita and the performance of seaports when GDP per capita reaches very high levels. However, seaports located in regions with lower GDP per capita tend to exhibit superior performance. The inefficiency of southern seaports is evident, whereas seaports located in Central/Eastern Europe exhibit superior performance, irrespective of their model orientation. These findings underscore the importance of considering economic context and regional factors in understanding seaport performance and highlight potential areas for improvement in southern seaports. Full article

Phoracantha semipunctata is a destructive invasive alien forest pest worldwide. It primarily damages the eucalyptus via adults, affecting almost all parts of the eucalyptus. Its larvae develop in almost all major tissues of the plant. Phoracantha semipunctata spreads both via the migration of adults and global trade in intercontinental translocation. Currently, this pest has spread to six continents worldwide, except Antarctica, resulting in substantial economic losses. Based on global occurrence data and environmental variables, the potential global geographical distribution of P. semipunctata was predicted using an ensemble model. The centroid shift, overlap, unfilling, and expansion scheme were selected to assess niche dynamics during the global invasion process. Our results indicated that the AUC and TSS values of the ensemble model were 0.993 and 0.917, respectively, indicating the high prediction accuracy of the model. The distribution pattern of P. semipunctata is primarily attributed to the temperature seasonality (bio4), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), and human influence index variables. The potential geographical distribution of P. semipunctata is primarily in western and southwestern Asia, western Europe, western and southern North America, southern South America, southern Africa, and eastern and southern Oceania. The potential geographical distribution of P. semipunctata showed a downward trend in the 2030s and the 2050s. The distribution centroid showed a general tendency to shift southward from the near-current to future climate. Phoracantha semipunctata has largely conserved its niche during the global invasion process. More attention should be paid to the early warning, prevention, and control of P. semipunctata in the countries and regions where it has not yet become invasive. Full article

Biological invasions driven by climate change, transportation, and intercontinental trade, as well as land-use change and tourism, pose severe threats to biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. However, the COVID-19-induced shutdowns and cross-border restrictions could have significantly impacted some of these drivers. Thus, COVID-19-induced restrictions may potentially alter the invasion trajectories and propagule pressure of invasive alien species, yet very few studies have examined this possibility. Here, we provide a unique conceptual framework to examine how COVID-19-induced restrictions may influence the rate, magnitude, and trajectories of biological invasions. We also discuss the similarities between the high-hit regions of COVID-19 and the global hotspot of biological invasions. Additionally, we assessed whether previous predictions of biological invasions still hold despite the strong impact of COVID-19 on the drivers of invasions. Finally, we emphasize the possibility of harnessing such restrictive measures to manage invasive species, nature reserves, and national parks. The present study is a significant addition to the current understanding of the interplay between pandemic outbreaks and biological invasions in the context of both direct and indirect effects of global ecosystem change. Full article

The maritime supply chain is a colossal ecosystem and the interface of the intercontinental trade market. Within this ecosystem, freight transportation is considered a fundamental component of all supply chain systems. As a matter of its demanding multimodal and intermodal character, freight transportation is a highly competitive market where actors involved, demand reliable and high-quality services at competitive prices. However, even though its systems keep evolving, being spurred by developments at multiple levels, the maritime actors’ fundamental operational processes keep an unprecedented low pace of evolution and transformation, and the maritime supply chain market is considered to be as hyper-fragmented as ever. This paper investigates how the effective, efficient, and sustainable matching of the demand and supply needs of the actors involved in the maritime supply chain domain can be strategically achieved and supported through specialised information systems. The paper, also presents a holistic framework for designing these systems. The analysis was based on the outcomes received from a number of interviews conducted with strategically positioned experts, pointing out their emerging needs and the challenges they face. The outcomes showed that digital transformation is still in its infancy but that the embracement of a decision-matchmaking system could be a real game changer. Full article

Accurate price forecasts on the EU ETS market are of interest to many production and investment entities. This paper describes the day-ahead carbon price prediction based on a wide range of fuel and energy indicators traded on the Intercontinental Exchange market. The indicators are analyzed in seven groups for individual products (power, natural gas, coal, crude, heating oil, unleaded gasoline, gasoil). In the proposed approach, by combining the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method and various methods of supervised machine learning, the possibilities of prediction in the period of rapid price increases are shown. The PCA method made it possible to reduce the number of variables from 37 to 4, which were inputs for predictive models. In the paper, these models are compared: regression trees, ensembles of regression trees, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) models, Support Vector Machines (SVM) models and Neural Network Regression (NNR) models. The research showed that the Gaussian Process Regression model turned out to be the most advantageous and its price prediction can be considered very accurate. Full article

This paper presents trend prediction results based on backtesting of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme futures market. This is based on the Intercontinental Exchange from 2005 to 2019. An alternative trend prediction strategy is taken that is predicated on an application of the Fractal Market Hypothesis (FMH) in order to develop an indicator that is predictive of short term future behaviour. To achieve this, we consider that a change in the polarity of the Lyapunov-to-Volatility Ratio precedes an associated change in the trend of the European Union Allowances (EUAs) price signal. The application of the FMH in this case is demonstrated to provide a useful tool in order to assess the likelihood of the market becoming bear or bull dominant, thereby helping to inform carbon trading investment decisions. Under specific conditions, Evolutionary Computing methods are utilised in order to optimise specific trading execution points within a trend and improve the potential profitability of trading returns. Although the approach may well be of value for general energy commodity futures trading (and indeed the wider financial and commodity derivative markets), this paper presents the application of an investment indicator for EUA carbon futures risk modelling and investment trend analysis only. Full article