Search Results (103)

Background and Objectives: Infection with SARS-CoV-2, the etiologic agent of Coronavirus 2019, spread rapidly globally after the first case was reported in Wuhan, China. Multiple respiratory complications, including pneumothorax and pneumomediastinum, have been observed. This study presents an analysis of 100 patients diagnosed with these conditions in the context of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted between March 2020 and February 2021 and included patients from two hospital units designated for the management of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Demographic data, laboratory investigation results, imaging assessments, medical-surgical management strategies, and survival data were recorded. Results: The study included 100 patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (mechanically ventilated and non-ventilated). Of these, 57 patients presented with pneumothorax, 26 of whom also had associated pneumomediastinum and 43 of whom were diagnosed with pneumomediastinum alone. There was a higher incidence of pneumothorax among male patients. Also, 22 patients had concomitant subcutaneous emphysema. Regarding therapeutic management, 36 pleural drains were performed. Bilateral pneumothorax was identified in five patients. Conclusions: The presence of pneumothorax was correlated with a decreased survival rate among patients diagnosed with COVID-19. Also, performing pleural drainage in patients with pneumothorax and COVID-19 pneumonia did not significantly influence the prognosis of the underlying disease. Full article

Dengue fever remains a major global health threat, and mathematical models are crucial for predicting its spread and evaluating control strategies. This study introduces a highly flexible dengue transmission model using a novel piecewise fractional derivative framework, which can capture abrupt changes in epidemic dynamics, such as those caused by public health interventions or seasonal shifts. We conduct a rigorous comparative analysis of four widely used but distinct mechanisms of disease transmission (incidence rates): Harmonic Mean, Holling Type II, Beddington–DeAngelis, and Crowley–Martin. The model’s well-posedness is established, and the basic reproduction number (${\Re }_0$) is derived for each incidence function. Our central finding is that the choice of this mathematical mechanism critically alters predictions. For example, models that account for behavioral changes (Beddington–DeAngelis, Crowley–Martin) identify different key drivers of transmission compared to simpler models. Sensitivity analysis reveals that vector mortality is the most influential control parameter in these more realistic models. These results underscore that accurately representing transmission behavior is essential for reliable epidemic forecasting and for designing effective, targeted intervention strategies. Full article

Ginger is an important spice crop in the north-eastern region of India. Rhizome rot, also called soft rot, is one of the most devastating diseases found in ginger that causes yield losses of up to 100% under favourable conditions. Initially, the disease symptoms appear as a light yellowing of the leaf tips that gradually spreads down to the leaf blade of lower leaves and the leaf sheath along the margin. Under favourable environmental conditions, the disease spreads rapidly, potentially causing significant crop damage. The pathogen can infect at any stage of crop growth, and under favourable environmental conditions, the disease spreads rapidly, failing the crop. Current research emphasises mitigating the losses caused by the devastating disease by using management strategies and biocontrol agents (BCAs). Results revealed that the average highest percent rhizome germination, lowest mean disease incidence, lowest mean disease severity index, lowest coefficient of disease index value, highest rhizome yield and benefit–cost ratio were recorded with Trichoderma harzianum (10 g/kg of rhizomes) + soil application of T. harzianum-enriched well-decomposed farm yard manure (3 kg of T. harzianum mixed with 100 kg FYM at 10–15 days before sowing) + soil drenching with T. harzianum at the rate 10 kg/ha, compared to the untreated control. Furthermore, soil chemical properties such as pH, electrical conductivity, soil organic carbon, total available nitrogen, total available phosphorus, and total available potassium play critical roles in rhizome rot disease severity. BCAs can suppress the phytopathogenic fungi and modulate different functions in plants. Full article

This study proposes and examines the dynamics of a susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) model for the spread of seasonal influenza. The population is categorized into four distinct groups: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infectious (I), and recovered (R) individuals. The symmetric model integrates a bilinear incidence rate alongside a nonlinear recovery rate that depends on the quality of healthcare services. Additionally, it accounts for the impact of fear related to the disease and includes a constant vaccination rate as well as a nonlinear treatment function. The model advances current epidemiological frameworks by simultaneously accounting for these interrelated mechanisms, which are typically studied in isolation. We derive the expression for the basic reproduction number and analyze the essential stability properties of the model. Key analytical results demonstrate that the system exhibits rich dynamic behavior, including backward bifurcation (where stable endemic equilibria persist even when the basic reproduction number is less than one) and Hopf bifurcation. These phenomena emerge from the interplay between fear-induced suppression of transmission, treatment saturation, and healthcare quality. Numerical simulations using Saudi Arabian demographic and epidemiological data quantify how increased fear perception shrinks the bistability region, facilitating eradication. Healthcare capacity improvements, on the other hand, reduce the critical reproduction number threshold while treatment accessibility suppresses infection loads. The model’s practical significance lies in its ability to identify intervention points where small parameter changes yield disproportionate control benefits and evaluate trade-offs between pharmaceutical (vaccination/treatment) and non-pharmaceutical (fear-driven distancing) strategies. This work establishes a versatile framework for public health decision making and the integrated approach offers policymakers a tool to simulate combined intervention scenarios and anticipate nonlinear system responses that simpler models cannot capture. Full article

Climate change is thought to be responsible for the spread of various vector-borne diseases. The current study was conducted to evaluate the impact of different temperature and relative humidity regimes on the developmental stages of the yellow fever mosquito, Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae). The study also evaluated the impact of larval density on the survival of Ae. aegypti. In addition, the association between vector larval abundance, dengue incidence, and climatic factors were elucidated during 2016–2019 in three populated districts of Punjab, Pakistan, i.e., Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Multan. The results of the study revealed that at 10 °C and 35 °C, egg hatching and adult emergence were significantly reduced, regardless of the relative humidity. In contrast, at 20 °C and 30 °C, the rates of egg and adult survival increased with higher relative humidity. In addition, a density-dependent response was observed regarding larval survival of Ae. aegypti. Moreover, larval incidence was positively correlated with the number of dengue patients, Tmax, RH, and precipitation at Lahore (0.55, 0.23, 0.29, and 0.13), Rawalpindi (0.90, 0.30, 0.21, and 0.14), and Multan (0.05, 0.27, and 0.13) respectively, except in Multan, where a negative correlation (−0.09) with precipitation was observed. The inflow of patients had a positive correlation with the occurrence of a larval population, relative humidity, and precipitation at Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Multan districts, with the scale values of 0.55, 0.25, and 0.16; 0.90, 0.22, and 0.03; and 0.05, 0.06, and 0.03, respectively. In addition, a forecast model, ARIMA, predicted that there was a higher rate of larval occurrence in Rawalpindi, followed by Lahore. This study concluded that the role of precipitation > 200 mm prior to a 1–2-month lag, a 20–30 °C temperature range, and an RH exceeding 60% lead to the occurrence of larvae and dengue case spikes. This study will help to reinforce dengue surveillance and control strategies in Pakistan and to establish early management strategies based on changing climatic factors. Full article

The coronavirus (COVID-19) expanded rapidly and affected almost the whole world since December 2019. COVID-19 has an unusual ability to spread quickly through airborne viruses and substances. Taking into account the disease’s natural progression, this study considers that viral spread is unpredictable rather than deterministic. The continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) stochastic model technique has been used to anticipate upcoming states using random variables. The suggested study focuses on a model with five distinct compartments. The first class contains Lévy noise-based infection rates (termed as vulnerable people), while the second class refers to the infectious compartment having similar perturbation incidence as the others. We demonstrate the existence and uniqueness of the positive solution of the model. Subsequently, we define a stochastic threshold as a requisite condition for the extinction and durability of the disease’s mean. By assuming that the threshold value ${\mathbf{R}}_{\mathbf{0}}^{\mathbf{D}}$ is smaller than one, it is demonstrated that the solution trajectories oscillate around the disease-free state (DFS) of the corresponding deterministic model. The solution curves of the SDE model fluctuate in the neighborhood of the endemic state of the base ODE system, when ${\mathbf{R}}_{\mathbf{0}}^{\mathbf{P}}>1$ elucidates the definitive persistence theory of the suggested model. Ultimately, numerical simulations are provided to confirm our theoretical findings. Moreover, the results indicate that stochastic environmental disturbances might influence the propagation of infectious diseases. Significantly, increased noise levels could hinder the transmission of epidemics within the community. Full article

The COVID-19 pandemic imposed a substantial burden on healthcare systems worldwide, yet reliable data on COVID-19 morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs in Latin America remain limited. This study explored the disease and economic burden of COVID-19 in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru during the pre-vaccination period. Using national databases and a systematic review of the literature, we analyzed data on adults aged 18 and older, reporting cases, death rates, years of life lost, excess mortality, and direct medical costs. Before vaccination programs began, the average COVID-19 incidence rate was 6741 per 100,000 adults. Of these, 91% were mild cases, 7% moderate/severe, and 2% critical. Among 2,201,816 hospitalizations, 27.8% required intensive care, and 17.5% required mechanical ventilation. Excess mortality ranged from 76 to 557 per 100,000, and years of life lost spanned 241,089 to 3,312,346. Direct medical costs ranged from USD 258 million to USD 10,437 million, representing 2–5% of national health expenditures. The findings highlight significant variability across countries and provide crucial insights to help policymakers to make informed decisions and allocate resources effectively to improve national strategies around surveillance, preventive and treatment strategies to control the spread of COVID-19 disease in the future. Full article

Passiflora edulis, introduced to the Republic of Korea in 1989 and commercially cultivated since 2012, has faced recent challenges due to viral infections impacting growth, yield, and quality. This study aimed to investigate the viral infections in P. edulis and surrounding weeds at cultivation sites in the Republic of Korea, examining possible correlations between the infections for sustainable agriculture. Over five years, P. edulis and weed samples were collected for virus diagnosis using PCR and RT-PCR assays, analyzing the infection status in both P. edulis and weeds and across weed species/families. The findings revealed infections with EuLCV, PaLCuGdV, CMV, and EAPV in both P. edulis and weeds, with PaLCuGdV showing the highest infection rate. Although no direct correlation was found between the presence of the same viruses in P. edulis and weeds, suggesting that there may be interactions among different viruses, the study highlighted that EuLCV infection could exacerbate symptoms when coinfected by other viruses. The study underscores the importance of implementing preventive measures within greenhouses to control virus transmission, offering insights for strategic management of viral diseases in P. edulis cultivation. These findings support the sustainable production of agricultural products by providing actionable strategies, such as the removal of weeds to eliminate habitats for vectors like whiteflies and aphids and the targeted management of high-incidence weeds from the Asteraceae, Solanaceae, and Oxalidaceae families to prevent and control the spread of EuLCV. Full article

Background/Objectives: Invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae disease (IPD) and invasive Haemophilus influenzae (IHI) infections cause disease in pediatric patients. The COVID-19 pandemic brought about a change in the rates of common viral illnesses that can lead to superimposed bacterial infections. Methods: A repeated monthly cross-sectional study was performed using inpatient data from the Military Health System Data Repository (MDR) to observe differences in IPD and IHI hospitalization rates before and during the COVID-19 pandemic starting in March 2018 and continuing to February 2023. Our study included a cohort of 1.27 million children under the age of 5 years old. Results: A total of 200 unique cases of IPD and 171 unique cases of IHI were identified. In Year 1 of the pandemic, the hospitalization rates for IHI and IPD decreased. In Year 2, IPD returned to the pre-pandemic baseline, and IHI remained below the baseline. In Year 3, IPD increased above the baseline, and IHI returned to the baseline. Conclusions: These data support the notion that the interventions implemented to reduce the spread of COVID-19, such as hand hygiene and social distancing, likely led to a reduction in the incidence of invasive disease. The subsequent relaxation of these mitigation strategies likely led to a resurgence of IHI and an increase in IPD in our population. Full article

Giardiasis and cryptosporidiosis, caused by Giardia lamblia and Cryptosporidium spp., are parasitic infections transmitted through faecal–oral routes or contaminated water. Although less common in Spain compared to developing countries, they pose a public health concern, particularly for vulnerable groups like children and immunocompromised individuals. This study aims to analyse the cases reported to the Microbiological Information System (MIS) in children between 2012 and 2021, as well as their distribution across sociodemographic variables. Proportions and infectivity rates were determined for epidemiological and sociodemographic data, and the incidence rate for giardiasis and cryptosporidiosis was calculated annually and by health sector. The variables analysed included sex, age, health sector and weather. For both diseases, there was a significant decrease in the number of cases in 2020, suggesting the importance of person-to-person transmission. Children were infected by Giardia in significantly higher proportion (p < 0.001), being the majority in age groups 5–14 years, while the proportion of boys and girls infected by Cryptosporidium was almost identical (1.4% vs. 1.3%), in children aged 2–4 years. Periodically there was a significant increase in cases of cryptosporidiosis, apparently related to the presence of torrential rains. Transmission is related to increased temperature and rainfall. Person-to-person transmission in the paediatric population needs further investigation. This study provides the foundation for future research on the evolution of cases of giardiasis and cryptosporidiosis in Spanish children. The data emphasise the need for informational campaigns on hygienic measures and efforts by public health authorities to maintain water resources in optimal condition to prevent parasite spread. Full article

Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (pine wood nematode, PWN) has been present in China for over 40 years and has spread to northeast China, where native pine species are key components of the local top community. Pinus thunbergii is known to be susceptible to PWN among local conifer species, whereas research on PWN’s pathogenicity in Larix remains limited. Furthermore, there are no research reports on PWN infestation in Picea and Abies species within China. This study conducted a detailed analysis of phenotypic changes and temporal spectral reflectance variations in four conifer species in northeast China—P. thunbergii, Larix kaempferi, Picea koraiensis, and Abies holophylla—following artificial inoculation with PWN. The aim of this study is to establish a theoretical basis for identifying the potential hosts and threats of PWN. The study incorporated a 60-day post-inoculation observation period to systematically monitor and compare temporal changes in external morphology, disease susceptibility (incidence and mortality rates), spectral reflectance, and the normalized wilt index (NWI) in 2–3-year-old seedlings of P. thunbergii, L. kaempferi, P. koraiensis, and A. holophylla after inoculation with PWN. The results showed that P. thunbergii displayed the earliest infection symptoms, followed by L. kaempferi, A. holophylla, and finally P. koraiensis. After inoculation, P. thunbergii was the first to experience mortality, followed by L. kaempferi, P. koraiensis, and A. holophylla. Following inoculation, P. thunbergii exhibited the earliest significant increase in NWI (p < 0.001), followed by L. kaempferi and A. holophylla; P. koraiensis showed the latest increase (p < 0.001). In conclusion, the experiment identified P. koraiensis as having the strongest resistance to PWN among the four species, followed by A. holophylla. P. thunbergii showed the weakest resistance, while L. kaempferi exhibited moderate resistance. The ranking of PWN susceptibility for the four conifer species, from highest to lowest, is as follows: P. thunbergii, L. kaempferi, A. holophylla, and P. koraiensis. Full article

The literature associating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 with the healthcare-related, geographical, and demographic characteristics of the territory is inconclusive and contrasting. We studied these relationships during winter 2021/2022 in South Tyrol, a multicultural Italian alpine province, performing an ecological study based on the 20 districts of the area. Data about incidence, hospitalization, and death between November 2021 and February 2022 were collected and associated to territorial variables via bivariate analyses and multivariate regressions. Both exposure variables and outcomes varied widely among districts. Incidence was found to be mainly predicted by vaccination coverage (negative correlation). Mortality and ICU admission rates partially followed this distribution, while the case fatality rate was inversely correlated to average salary, and hospital admission rates increased where hospitals capacity was higher, and from the southern to the northern border of the province. These findings, besides confirming the efficacy of vaccination in preventing both new and severe SARS-CoV-2 cases, highlight that several geographical and socio-demographic variables can be related to disease epidemiology. Remote areas with wage gaps and lower access to care suffered most from the pandemic. Our findings, therefore, underly the existence of health inequity issues that need to be targeted by implementing specifically tailored public health interventions. Full article

In this research, we present a deterministic epidemiological mathematical model that delves into the intricate dynamics of the coexistence of tuberculosis and diabetes. Our comprehensive analysis explores the interplay and the influence of diabetes on tuberculosis incidence within a human population segregated into diabetic and non-diabetic groups. The model incorporates a saturated incidence rate and treatment regimen for latent tuberculosis infections, offering insights into their impact on tuberculosis control. The theoretical findings reveal the emergence of a phenomenon known as backward bifurcation, attributed to exogenous reinfection and saturated treatment. Additionally, our study employs both local and global sensitivity analyses to identify pivotal parameters crucial to the spread of tuberculosis within the population. This investigation contributes valuable insights to the understanding of the complex relationship between tuberculosis and diabetes, offering a foundation for more effective disease control strategies. Full article

Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has emerged as a significant challenge to public health, posing a considerable threat to effective disease management on a global scale. The increasing incidence of infections caused by resistant bacteria has led to heightened morbidity and mortality rates, particularly among vulnerable populations. Main text: This review analyzes current strategies and health policies adopted in the European Union (EU) and Italy to manage AMR, presenting an in-depth examination of approaches for containment and mitigation. Factors such as excessive prescriptions, self-medication, and the misuse of antibiotics in livestock contribute to the selection and spread of resistant strains. Furthermore, this review provides a detailed overview of resistance mechanisms, including enzymatic inactivation, reduced permeability, efflux pump activity, and target site protection, with specific examples provided. The review underscores the urgent need to develop new antibiotics and implement diagnostic testing to ensure targeted prescriptions and effectively combat resistant infections. Current estimates indicate that AMR-related infections cause over 60,000 deaths annually in Europe and the United States, with projections suggesting a potential rise to 10 million deaths per year by 2050 if current trends are not reversed. The review also examines existing public health policies in Europe and Italy, focusing on national and regional strategies to combat AMR. These include promoting responsible antibiotic use, improving surveillance systems, and encouraging research and development of new therapeutic options. Conclusions: Finally, the review presents short- and long-term perspectives from the authors, suggesting actionable steps for policymakers and healthcare providers. Ultimately, a coordinated and multidisciplinary approach involving healthcare professionals, policymakers, and the public is essential to mitigate the impact of AMR and ensure the effectiveness of antibiotics for future generations. Full article

Tuberculosis (TB) is a regional and global bacterial illness that has been expanding and affecting individuals in every generation. An unknown percentage of asymptomatic hosts have TB, and the infection can spread while exhibiting no symptoms. These asymptomatic TB carriers, who contribute to the spread of the illness yet go mostly undetected, may make it more difficult to prevent transmission. In this study, we utilized the concept of symmetry to construct a manageable disease modelling framework for TB transmission and control. We developed a TB model to investigate the potential influence of asymptomatic carriers, symptomatic infections, and the entirety of TB prevalence on different approaches to treatment and prevention in Thailand. Annual TB incidence data from Thailand from 2000 to 2022 were used to calibrate the model parameters. We assessed the potential for reaching conflicting results about the management and spread of tuberculosis in Thailand. Our results showed that some TB strategies that were thought to be effective in reducing transmission may have the opposite impact, or that an intervention’s effectiveness might be overestimated, making it seem unfeasible in certain scenarios. For example, the objective of TB treatment, which attempts to decrease the occurrence of symptomatic TB infections, is to decrease the TB infection and propagation rates if the relative carrier (η) is less than one. Nonetheless, our results indicate that this strategy may increase the frequency of asymptomatic TB patients, symptomatic TB viral infections, and overall TB prevalence if η has been sufficiently understated. We also found that reducing only the progression rate of symptomatic TB infections cannot stop asymptomatic TB carriers and total TB prevalence, even when the relative infection of carriers ($\eta$) is less than unity. Our research provides a better understanding of the role of asymptomatic patients in spreading TB and highlights the need to accurately include bearers in models that guide Thailand’s TB control strategy. Full article