Search Results (67)

Population aging poses significant challenges to the sustainability of pension systems. This study presents an integrated methodological approach that uniquely combines actuarial life-cycle modeling with agent-based simulation to assess the potential of Reverse Mortgage Loans (RMLs) as a dual lever for enhancing retiree welfare and supporting pension system resilience under demographic and financial uncertainty. We explore Reverse Mortgage Loans (RMLs) as a potential financial instrument to support retirees while alleviating pressure on public pensions. Unlike prior research that treats individual decisions or policy outcomes in isolation, our hybrid model explicitly captures feedback loops between household-level behavior and system-wide financial stability. To test our hypothesis that RMLs can improve individual consumption outcomes and bolster systemic solvency, we develop a hybrid model combining actuarial techniques and agent-based simulations, incorporating stochastic housing prices, longevity risk, regulatory capital requirements, and demographic shifts. This dual-framework enables a structured investigation of how micro-level financial decisions propagate through market dynamics, influencing solvency, pricing, and adoption trends. Our central hypothesis is that reverse mortgages, when actuarially calibrated and macroprudentially regulated, enhance individual financial well-being while preserving long-run solvency at the system level. Simulation results indicate that RMLs can improve consumption smoothing, raise expected utility for retirees, and contribute to long-term fiscal sustainability. Moreover, we introduce a dynamic regulatory mechanism that adjusts capital buffers based on evolving market and demographic conditions, enhancing system resilience. Our simulation design supports multi-scenario testing of financial robustness and policy outcomes, providing a transparent tool for stress-testing RML adoption at scale. These findings suggest that, when well-regulated, RMLs can serve as a viable supplement to traditional retirement financing. Rather than offering prescriptive guidance, this framework provides insights to policymakers, financial institutions, and regulators seeking to integrate RMLs into broader pension strategies. Full article

The real estate market significantly influences individual lives, corporate decisions, and national economic sustainability. Therefore, constructing a data-driven, interpretable real estate market prediction model is essential. It can clarify each factor’s role in housing prices and transactions, offering a scientific basis for market regulation and enterprise investment decisions. This study comprehensively measures the evolution trends of the real estate markets in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, China, from 2003 to 2022 through three dimensions. Then, various machine learning methods and interpretability methods like SHAP values are used to explore the impact of supply, demand, policies, and expectations on the real estate market of China’s first-tier cities. The results reveal the following: (1) In terms of commercial housing sales area, adequate housing supply, robust medical services, and high population density boost the sales area, while demand for small units reflects buyers’ balance between affordability and education. (2) In terms of commercial housing average sales price, growth is driven by education investment, population density, and income, with loan interest rates serving as a stabilizing tool. (3) In terms of commercial housing sales amount, educational expenditure, general public budget expenditure, and real estate development investment amount drive revenue, while the five-year loan benchmark interest rate is the primary inhibitory factor. These findings highlight the divergent impacts of supply, demand, policy, and expectation factors across different market dimensions, offering critical insights for enterprise investment strategies. Full article

Household debt plays a crucial role in influencing the performance of the economy and its vulnerability to shocks. This study synthesises studies on this topic. We used the systematic literature review technique to analyse 97 studies from the EBSCO, Google Scholars, Sabinet African Journals, SAGE, ScienceDirect, Scopus, Springer Link, Taylor and Francis, and Web of Science databases from 2004 to 2024. The results reveal that country-level and household-specific factors are important in explaining debt. We delineate supply-side and demand factors that drive debt. Country-level factors that explain indebtedness include housing prices, unemployment, economic growth, interest rates, inflation, and income levels. At the household level, factors such as education level, behaviour, social status, employment, house prices, income, family size, occupation, wealth, and marital status explain indebtedness. Policies impact loan types differently; therefore, due consideration should be taken and prescriptions should aim to address both supply and demand factors. Future studies should rely on AI-driven methods and techniques that utilise natural language processing capabilities such as sentiment analysis in order to handle large data sets and ensure objectivity. Full article

A significant share of many commercial banks’ portfolios consists of residential mortgage loans provided to individuals and families. This paper examines the default and rational prepayment risk of single-borrower (residential) mortgage loans based on an option pricing model that captures the skewness and kurtosis of the house prices returns’ distribution via the shifted lognormal distribution. Equilibrium option-adjusted credit spreads are obtained from the implementation of the model under plausible values of the relevant parameters. The methodology involves numerical experiments, using a shifted binomial tree model by Haathela and Camara and Chung, to evaluate the effects of the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, asset volatility, interest rates, and recovery costs on mortgage valuation. Findings indicate prepayment risk significantly influences loan value, as it limits upside potential, while LTV and volatility directly impact default risk. The shifting parameter (θ) in the asset distribution proves essential for accurate risk assessment. Conclusions emphasize the need for mortgage underwriting to consider specific asset characteristics, optimal loan structures, and prevailing risk-free rates to avoid underestimating risk. This model can aid in the more robust pricing and management of mortgage portfolios, especially relevant in regions with substantial mortgage-backed exposure, such as the European banking system. Full article

Background: Demographic changes are often prone to purely social perspectives, while individual differences are overlooked. This research examines the role of attachment and emotional intelligence in childbearing motivation. Methods: In total, 234 female students participated in an online survey, including sociodemographic data, adult attachment, emotional competencies, and parenting-related variables. Results: Statistical analyses revealed that the students express positive and negative childbearing motivation almost equally and moderately. They were both linked to religiosity and emotional management. We further explore the differences in relationship status and address the role of religious beliefs. The demographic measures identified as most important include healthcare availability for both mother and child, subsidizing housing loans or rent, and encouraging fathers to become more actively involved in the care of infants. Conclusion: These emerging trends deserve further investigation and social incentives. Full article

China’s current real estate market transactions are relatively subdued; hence, finding means to repower the engine for further development becomes vital. However, few studies investigated the relationships between family non-economic factors, assets, and housing debt. This study highlights the impact of family members’ health, insurance, and social capital’s impact on housing debt and assets. The family-size data from the China House Finance Survey are analyzed using a partial least squares structural equation model. The results indicate that family members’ poor health and uninsured endowment insurance individuals negatively affect housing debt and family assets. In contrast, the impact of medical insurance is insignificant. Besides, social capital substantially and positively impacts assets and debts. The labor supply and the proportion of kids have a negligible impact. Hence, this study recommends that loan-offering enterprises may change their marketing targets according to family situations, such as health status and insurance coverage. The government might promote endowment insurance and strengthen higher education to revitalize the real estate industry. Full article

This research uses difference-in-difference (DID) and other empirical methods to analyze firm-level real estate data to discover how heterogeneous firm characteristics affect managers’ decision-making about development expansion when a firm faces a temporary negative sales shock in the Chinese housing market. The manager’s decision is a utility maximization problem under uncertainty, determined by their risk aversion levels, which managers choose to optimize by considering other factors of interest, including career risk and personal wealth. Also, the advance payment rule encourages real estate developers to maintain high turnover, since new projects allow developers to collect cash first. The results show that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are much more conservative than other types of developers. SOEs tend to focus on current developing projects. Firms with more concentrated management pursue expansion and seek to use new project sales to compensate for their slower growth. Larger developers with headquarters in large cities tend to slow their development speed when they observe negative signals, as they can quickly engage in new projects given these firms’ easy access to financial resources such as bank loans. This study makes a novel contribution to the literature since previous research has tended to focus on the macro market level rather than the firm level. The findings also have strong policy and regulation value. The results indicate that higher cashflow monitoring needs, especially to monitor family-owned developers, to prevent misuse and excessive project expansion. Full article

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) include sustainable cities and communities. The availability of housing for young people is a contemporary global problem, and the severity of housing problems for young people in many countries is widely discussed and raises important policy questions. Generation Z, described as digital, critical, adventurous, open-minded and, above all, mobile people, is now entering adulthood. The study attempted to identify the housing preferences of young people to determine whether they prefer renting a flat or owning one. Although generation Z differs from older generations in many respects, their perception of the housing issue does not differ significantly from the attitudes presented by older generations. The dominant model of the housing system in Poland, the non-commodified-familial model, which prefers ownership over renting, is also shared by the youngest generation. Hence, the conclusion addressed to the public authorities and the financing system is to enable the expansion of the credit offer supported by a long-term savings plan aimed at young people. Renting as an alternative way of securing housing needs is also perceived positively, with nearly 80% of respondents stating that they would be able to live in rented accommodation, mainly due to greater mobility, rising property prices and reluctance to take out a long-term loan. Hence, we suggest the need to support institutional renting along the lines of other countries with similar housing systems. Full article

In Brazil, there is a shortage of approximately 5.80 million residences, a challenge that intensified during the pandemic. Since 2013, there has been a mandate to implement specific performance criteria in residential constructions. However, many construction firms face difficulties in meeting these standards, especially concerning sound insulation in partition elements. This work aims to assess the airborne sound insulation performance and compliance with legal standards in new residential buildings through measurements and simulations. In particular, subsidized housing units for low-income populations are studied, which are eligible for reduced taxes on building loans. These buildings are typically made of hollow ceramic blocks with vertical perforations as separating walls, a commonly used national building material. Three buildings located in Guarapuava, a southern city in Brazil with a population of approximately 183,000 residents, were selected for this purpose. Measurements were conducted following ISO 16283-1 guidelines, whereas simulations were performed using ISO 12354-1, initially assuming a uniform plate but also exploring an alternative model that considers orthotropic behavior with analytical expressions. The calculations considered both static and dynamic moduli of elasticity. The results indicated that all the units failed to meet the specified standards. The measured $D_{nT,w}$ values were below the required thresholds, obtaining 42 < 45 dB for Building B1, 40 < 45 dB for Building B2, and 38 < 40 dB for Building B3. The predicted $D_{nT,w}$ values agreed well with the measured values when considering orthotropy with a dynamic elastic modulus. However, discrepancies were observed in the spectral analysis, especially at lower and higher frequencies. The findings suggest refraining from employing single-leaf partition walls made of vertical hollow ceramic blocks in such buildings. Improving sound insulation necessitates embracing a comprehensive strategy that takes into account the separating element, flanking paths, and the room geometries. Full article

This paper identifies the main factors that shape energy poverty. Based on the analysis of statistical, regulatory documentation, as well as the state of the housing stock in Portugal, a number of new factors have been identified that are inherent in developed countries. The factors that shape energy poverty include the low energy efficiency of buildings, lack of access to energy-efficient sources, imperfect regulatory framework in the construction sector, and low level of public awareness of loans to cover energy-related needs. In view of this, it can be argued that energy poverty is not a problem of Third World countries only but is a global problem that will become even more acute as we move to clean and energy-efficient resources. To overcome the problems of energy poverty, the experience of Portugal was analysed. It was found that the practice of granting loans to reimburse the cost of energy purchases is not effective. Based on the analysis of government programmes and plans in Portugal, it was found that one of the most effective ways to overcome energy poverty is to ensure the energy certification of buildings. The incentive for the transition to certification is a set of state programmes on construction loans, allocation of funds for modernisation, etc. The identified factors and tools for stimulating energy efficiency improvement allow us to formulate a strategy for overcoming energy poverty, which includes energy certification of buildings, transition to more efficient and energy-saving heating means, lending to the population, and allocation of funds for modernisation. Full article

Kazakhstan is historically a livestock-producing country. For the first time in this study, we attempted to assess the vulnerability of nomadic pastoralists in Kazakhstan to climate change using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI). To collect data, a survey of 100 household heads was conducted on fourteen main components and fifty-six sub-components. The study was conducted in the period from May to July 2022 in the Panfilov (PD) and Kerbulak (KD) districts of the Zhetysu region, where the Altyn-Emel State National Nature Park is located. The results of the study were combined using a composite index method and comparing different vulnerability indicators. Natural disasters, which manifest as the effects of drought, temperature fluctuations, and precipitation, contribute most to the vulnerability of nomads living in remote mountain areas with a complex infrastructure. According to the results of the study, nomads of both regions have high vulnerability in such components as natural resources, human–wildlife conflict, housing type, agriculture and food security, and social networks. High vulnerability in the “Finances and incomes” component was found only in the pastoralists of the PD. Identifying the levels of vulnerability of nomadic households to climate change, as well as understanding their adaptation strategies, will enable pastoralists to gain access to new ways of reducing the vulnerability of their livelihoods. Currently, the country practices a strategy to reduce the vulnerability of pastoral nomads’ livelihoods by insuring livestock against natural or natural hazards and other risks; involving the population in environmental-protection activities and helping them to obtain sustainable financial resources when they refuse to hunt endangered animals; non-agricultural diversification of high-altitude ecotourism in rural areas in their area of residence; and improving financial literacy by providing training and providing information on low-interest loans under state projects and livestock subsidy mechanisms, as well as training in organizing cooperatives within the framework of legal status, which will ensure them stable sales of products and income growth. The results of software research serve as a basis for taking measures within the framework of the development and implementation of state programs for climate change adaptation of the Environmental Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan, where agriculture is one of the priority areas of management. Full article

Brownfield redevelopment projects are often perceived as more risky than greenfield investment, and financing opportunities may be more limited and expensive. Different financial support projects have been developed to support regeneration projects, and empirical evidence has shown that all buildings near the intervention area may benefit from an increase in prices once the brownfield project is complete. The article considers the Connecticut market and evaluates the characteristics of the brownfield projects that had access to a financial support program (loan or grant), the impact of the regeneration process on the liquidity of the housing market, and the gap between the price and the appraisal value of the residential unit. Target areas for this type of financing program are mainly characterized by low income, a high density of population, a high incidence of homeowners, and a high crime rate. Once completed, the brownfield requalification has an impact on the housing market because the brownfield recovery reduces the number of house sales due to the increase in the average price in the surrounding area and makes the selling price more consistent with the appraisal valuation. The empirical evidence provided may be useful for public institutions that are suffering from budget constraints and have to prioritize areas for financial support solutions. Full article

Despite the shift to private sector-driven affordable housing in Nigeria for decades, the housing deficit has continued to increase to the disadvantage of low-income families. This paper explores the enabling strategies for stimulating private-driven affordable housing in Nigeria. A case study of the Millard Fuller Foundation projects was undertaken, and semi-structured interviews were administered to 12 residents of the estates and the developer to explore their experience and highlight the considerations for designing appropriate strategies. The data generated were analysed using thematic analysis with the support of Nvivo. This study identifies four major components of construction costs—land, design, materials, and finance—that policy improvement can target to stimulate private investment. It shows that developers are likely to adopt practices that will reduce these costs with repercussions for end-users. Mindful of this, and the concern to make returns on investment, strategies should aim to harmonise both developers’ interest and that of the end-users through widespread infrastructural development to make land available in all locations, and an incremental owner-building approach so that end-users can take decisions for their housing. Furthermore, access to National Housing Fund (NHF) mortgages should be enhanced by recognising supplementary incomes in the loan origination procedures. Full article

In this paper, we investigate the influential factors of Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgage loans, focusing our research interest on peer-to-peer (P2P) lending, the most successful FinTech lending model. We consider P2P lending an alternative source of financing that marginal borrowers use to pay the increased mortgage down payment, making them eligible to receive a mortgage from conventional banks. In other words, we examine whether and to what extent P2P lending has a positive impact on the FHA loans volume by providing the ability to circumvent the loan-to-value (LTV) cap policy. As a result, P2P lending can be seen as a means for ”rationed” borrowers to have access to the market by reducing inequalities and promoting financial inclusion, thus achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We employ hand-collected data from FHA mortgages, P2P loans, and other economic factors from all 50 U.S. states during 2007–2017 and use panel data techniques for this purpose. Research shows that P2P lending, GDP per capita, population growth, broad money growth rate, interest rate, unemployment rate, new housing units, and consumer confidence Index produce effects on FHA loans. We show that P2P lending, a nonconventional determinant, is causally associated with a significant increase in the count and volume of FHA loans, implying that P2P lending has a positive impact on them. The ability of P2P to bypass mortgage supply constraints (tightened LTV caps) by providing small loans to borrowers to meet the increased down payment requirements is very important to policy-makers, as it shows that constraining the volume of mortgage loans may be not achieved. Macroprudential tools designed to control credit growth may prove ineffective, as the use of alternative forms of lending helps circumvent them and ultimately leads to excessive household leverage with all the risks that it poses to the financial system. Full article

This study aimed to identify social determinants of maternal and child health (SDoH) in Pakistan. Using a qualitative study design, data were collected from community members in seven underserved areas of Lahore City, Pakistan. A total of 22 qualitative in-depth interviews and 10 focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted. The participants included basic health unit healthcare staff, women of reproductive ages, male family members, mothers-in-law, and religious leaders. We found that maternal and child health is adversely affected by the following socioeconomic and environmental barriers: (i) poor housing quality and sanitation; (ii) inadequate food supply and safety; (iii) unsatisfactory public sector school services; (iv) a lack of safety and security; (v) scarce poverty alleviation efforts and loan schemes; (vi) unsatisfactory transport and internet services; and (vii) inadequate health services. The targets for maternal and child health in Pakistan cannot be met without close coordination between the primary health sector, local governance, and macro state structures, which collectively must monitor and improve housing adequacy, food security, public sector services (primary healthcare services, public schooling, public transport, and public internet access), overall safety, and poverty emergence. Full article