Search Results (8)

Ship operability diagrams are commonly defined based on the seakeeping analysis, showing which course and speed can safely be taken at the sea state to satisfy pre-defined seakeeping limiting values. Although ship operability diagrams are inherently probabilistic, because of the random nature of the environmental loads, their outcome is deterministic, showing if the seakeeping criteria are satisfied or not for a certain combination of environmental and operational parameters. In the present study, uncertainties in seakeeping predictions and limiting values, which are usually neglected, are integrated into the ship operability analysis. This results in probabilistic operability diagrams, where the seakeeping criteria are exceeded with certain probabilities. The approach is demonstrated in the example of the passenger ship on a route in the Adriatic Sea. Semi-analytical closed-form expressions are used for seakeeping analysis, while limiting values for vertical bow acceleration, pitch, slamming, roll, and propeller emergence are analyzed. The second-order reliability method is used to calculate probabilities of the exceedance of the seakeeping criteria, and the results are presented as probabilistic operability diagrams. The method enables the determination of a new probabilistic operability index applicable to the ship design and represents a prerequisite for risk-based decision making in ship operation. It is also presented how the method can be validated for the existing shipping route using numerical wave databases. Full article

Coherent S-band radar is a remote sensing observation device with high spatial-temporal resolution and can be used to achieve deterministic sea wave reconstruction and prediction (DSWRP) technology. However, coherent S-band radar can observe nonlinear details of the sea surface due to its high resolution, which makes the propagation operator matrix an ill-conditioned overdetermined matrix. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a DSWRP scheme using condition number regularized least squares (CN-RLS) for coherent S-band radar. First, the space-time velocity information was obtained from the radar echo. Second, the CN-RLS method solved the phase-resolved model coefficients. Finally, the deterministic wave field was predicted according to the solved model coefficients. The proposed scheme was verified by simulation data and the real radar dataset observed by the coherent S-band wave-measuring radar onboard the ship XIANGYANGHONG-18 in the East China Sea in April 2024. The predicted wave elevation of the proposed method was compared with the wave elevation observed based on the X-band wave-measuring radar, and the root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) were 0.22 m and 0.76, respectively, which show that the proposed method could effectively implement the DSWRP technology. Full article

Ocean waves are one of the leading environmental factors that cause motion of the ocean’s structure. Wave prediction is of great significance for the safety of marine structures. The deterministic sea wave prediction (DSWP) has been focused on because it provided an accurate temporal wave surface. The propagation velocity of wave components is one of the critical problems in DSWP. In this paper, the research of propagation velocity is focused on. The Taylor expansion to wave number is used to prove that the group velocity is the propagation velocity of wave components. The simulated irregular long crest wave data is generated. Utilizing the simulated data, the calculated wave surfaces based on group velocity are consistent with the simulated results. Meanwhile, the comparisons of calculated results based on the group velocity and phase velocity are given. Then, a tank experiment is set to verify the prediction results. To further investigate the prediction performance under different conditions, the influences of environmental factors, including the wind speed, water depth and sea state are analyzed in this paper. Full article

A wave forecast numerical simulation was performed for Typhoon Lingling around the Korean Peninsula and in the East Asia region using sea winds from 24 members produced by the Ensemble Prediction System for Global (EPSG) of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Significant wave height was observed by the ocean data buoys used to verify data of the ensemble wave model, and the results of the ensemble members were analyzed through probability verification. The forecast performance for the significant wave height improved by approximately 18% in the root mean square error in the three-day lead time compared to that of the deterministic model, and the difference in performance was particularly distinct towards mid-to-late lead times. The ensemble spread was relatively appropriate, even in the longer lead time, and each ensemble model runs were all stable. As a result of the probability verification, information on the uncertainty that could not be provided in the deterministic model could be obtained. It was found that all the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were 0.9 or above, demonstrating good predictive performance, and the ensemble wave model is expected to be useful in identifying and determining hazardous weather conditions. Full article

This study investigates the effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling for medium-range forecasts by using coupled numerical weather prediction (NWP) experiments based on the unified model (UM) on a case study of the 2016 heatwave over the Korean Peninsula. Atmospheric nudging experiments were carried out to determine the key regions which may have large impacts on the forecasts of the heat wave. The results of the nudging experiments suggest that key forcing from the Mongolia region gives the largest impact to this case by causing a transport of warm air from the northwest part of Korea. Moreover, the Pacific region shows an important role in the global circulation in nudging experiments. Results from the atmosphere-ocean coupled model show no clear benefit for the extreme heat wave temperatures in this case. In addition, more model development seems to be needed to improve the representation of sea surface temperature (SST) in some key areas. Nevertheless, it is confirmed that the atmosphere-ocean coupled simulation produces a better representation of aspects of the large-scale flow such as the blocking high over the Kamchatka Peninsula, the high pressure system in the northwest Pacific and Hadley circulation. The results presented in this study show that atmosphere-ocean coupling can be an important way to improve the deterministic model forecasts as the lead time increases beyond a few days. Full article

The recently finalised Second Generation Intact Stability Criteria (SGISC), produced by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), contain a level 3 assessment, the so-called Direct Stability Assessment (DSA). This assessment can be carried out using either model experiments or simulations. The fact that such a choice is given implies that the methods are equivalent in accuracy. This assumption has been verified, for one case, by the Cooperative Research Ships (CRS) community. The verification was based on new model experiments and calculated results, using four different programs owned by different CRS members. Results of the verification of the parametric roll failure mode in regular waves were published before, but this study concerns results in irregular seas. The experimental and numerical results are compared in both probabilistic and deterministic manners. The probabilistic comparison showed that the simulation programs considered are sometimes conservative and sometimes non-conservative in the prediction of the probability of an extreme value. The deterministic comparison in head seas showed that parametric roll events were predicted in the simulations in a wave train that showed no sign of important roll events in the measurement. The deterministic comparison in the following seas, on the other hand, showed an accurate fit of experimental and numerical results. It is suggested that predictions could possibly be improved by adding non-linear diffraction forces to the numerical model. Full article

This paper discusses the potential of deterministic wave prediction as one basic module for decision support of offshore operations. Therefore, methods of different complexity—the linear wave solution, the non-linear Schrödinger equation (NLSE) of two different orders and the high-order spectral method (HOSM)—are presented in terms of applicability and limitations of use. For this purpose, irregular sea states with varying parameters are addressed by numerical simulations as well as model tests in the controlled environment of a seakeeping basin. The irregular sea state investigations focuses on JONSWAP spectra with varying wave steepness and enhancement factor. In addition, the influence of the propagation distance as well as the forecast horizon is discussed. For the evaluation of the accuracy of the prediction, the surface similarity parameter is used, allowing an exact, quantitative validation of the results. Based on the results, the pros and cons of the different deterministic wave prediction methods are discussed. In conclusion, this paper shows that the classical NLSE is not applicable for deterministic wave prediction of arbitrary irregular sea states compared to the linear solution. However, the application of the exact linear dispersion operator within the linear dispersive part of the NLSE increased the accuracy of the prediction for small wave steepness significantly. In addition, it is shown that non-linear deterministic wave prediction based on second-order NLSE as well as HOSM leads to a substantial improvement of the prediction quality for moderate and steep irregular wave trains in terms of individual waves and prediction distance, with the HOSM providing a high accuracy over a wider range of applications. Full article

Deployment of wave energy converters (WECs) relies on consistent and accurate wave resource characterization, which is typically achieved through numerical modeling using deterministic wave models. The accurate predictions of large-wave events are critical to the success of wave resource characterization because of the risk on WEC installation, maintenance, and damage caused by extreme sea states. Because wind forcing is the primary driver of wave models, the quality of wind data plays an important role in the accuracy of wave predictions. This study evaluates the sensitivity of large-wave prediction to different wind-forcing products, and identifies a feasible approach to improve wave model results through improved wind forcing. Using a multi-level nested-grid modeling approach, we perform a series of sensitivity tests at four representative National Data Buoy Center buoy locations on the U.S. East and West Coasts. The selected wind-forcing products include the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis global wind product and North American Regional Reanalysis regional wind product as well as the observed wind at the buoys. Sensitivity test results indicate a consistent improvement in model predictions for the large-wave events (e.g., >90th percentile of significant wave height) at all buoys when observed-wind data were used to drive the wave model simulations. Full article