Search Results (5)

Lakes in Southwest Alaska are a critical habitat to many species and provide livelihoods to many communities through subsistence fishing, transportation, and recreation. Consistent and reliable data are rarely available for even the largest lakes in this sparsely populated region, so data-intensive methods utilizing long-term observations and physical data are not possible. To address this, we used optical remote sensing (MODIS 2002–2016) to establish a phenology record for key lakes in the region, and we modeled lake-ice formation and breakup for the years 1982–2022 using readily available temperature and solar radiation-based predictors in a survival modeling framework that accounted for years when lakes did not freeze. Results were validated with observations recorded at two lakes, and stratification measured by temperature arrays in three others. Our model provided good predictions (mean absolute error, freeze-over = 11 days, breakup = 16 days). Cumulative freeze-degree days and cumulative thaw-degree days were the strongest predictors of freeze-over and breakup, respectively. Lake volume appeared to mediate lake-ice phenology, as ice-cover duration tended to be longer and less variable in lower-volume lakes. Furthermore, most lakes < 10 km³ showed a trend toward shorter ice seasons of −1 to −6 days/decade, while most higher-volume lakes showed undiscernible or positive trends of up to 2 days/decade. Lakes > 20 km³ also showed a greater number of years when freeze-over was neither predicted by our model (37 times, n = 200) nor observed in the MODIS record (19 times, n = 60). While three lakes in our study did not commonly freeze throughout our study period, four additional high-volume lakes began experiencing years in which they did not freeze, starting in the late 1990s. Our study provides a novel approach to lake-ice prediction and an insight into the future of lake ice in the Boreal region. Full article

In the process of oilfield development, the use of CO₂ can improve the degree of reservoir production. Usually, CO₂ is injected alternately with water to expand the spread range of CO₂, and CO₂ presents a supercritical state in the formation conditions. In the process of alternating CO₂ and water injection, wellbore freezing and plugging frequently occur. In order to determine the cause of freezing and plugging of injection wells, the supercritical CO₂ flooding test area of YSL Oilfield in China is taken as an example to analyze the situation of freezing and plugging wells in the test area. The reasons for hydrate freezing and plugging are obtained, the distribution characteristics and sources of hydrate near the well are clarified, and a coupling model is established to calculate the limit injection velocity and limit shut-in time of CO₂ and water alternate injection wells. The results show that the main reasons for freezing and plugging of supercritical CO₂ water alternate injection wells are long time shut down after alternate injection, improper operation when stopping injection and starting and stopping pumps, and slow injection speed during alternate injection. In the process of supercritical CO₂ water alternative injection, in the case of post-injection, the CO₂ in the formation will reverse diffuse to the injection well end. With the continuous increase of daily water injection, the initial diffusion position and the time of CO₂ diffusion to the perforated hole after well shut-in gradually increase. The time of CO₂ reverse diffusion to the bottom of the well is 1.6–32.3 d, and the diffusion time in the perforated hole is 1.0–4.5 d. Therefore, the limit shut-in time following injection is 2.6–36.8 d. Following gas injection, the limit shut-in time of a waterproof compound can be divided into three stages according to the change of wellbore pressure: the pressure stabilization stage, pressure-drop stage and formation fluid-return stage. The limit shut-in time of a waterproof compound following gas injection is mainly affected by permeability, cumulative gas injection rate and formation depth. The limit shut-in time of a waterproof compound is 20.0~30.0 days. The research results provide technical support for the wide application of CO₂ flooding. Full article

The European Space Agency (ESA) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) missions are providing brightness temperature measurements at 1.4 GHz (L-band) for about 10 and 4 years respectively. One of the new areas of geophysical exploitation of L-band radiometry is on thin (i.e., less than 1 m) Sea Ice Thickness (SIT), for which theoretical and empirical retrieval methods have been proposed. However, a comprehensive validation of SIT products has been hindered by the lack of suitable ground truth. The in-situ SIT datasets most commonly used for validation are affected by one important limitation: They are available mainly during late winter and spring months, when sea ice is fully developed and the thickness probability density function is wider than for autumn ice and less representative at the satellite spatial resolution. Using Upward Looking Sonar (ULS) data from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), acquired all year round, permits overcoming the mentioned limitation, thus improving the characterization of the L-band brightness temperature response to changes in thin SIT. State-of-the-art satellite SIT products and the Cumulative Freezing Degree Days (CFDD) model are verified against the ULS ground truth. The results show that the L-band SIT can be meaningfully retrieved up to 0.6 m, although the signal starts to saturate at 0.3 m. In contrast, despite the simplicity of the CFDD model, its predicted SIT values correlate very well with the ULS in-situ data during the sea ice growth season. The comparison between the CFDD SIT and the current L-band SIT products shows that both the sea ice concentration and the season are fundamental factors influencing the quality of the thickness retrieval from L-band satellites. Full article

Satellite remote sensing data, such as moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometers (MODIS) and advanced very high-resolution radiometers (AVHRR), are being widely used to monitor sea ice conditions and their variability in the Bohai Sea, the southernmost frozen sea in the Northern Hemisphere. Monitoring the characteristics of the Bohai Sea ice can provide crucial information for ice disaster prevention for marine transportation, oil field operation, and regional climate change studies. Although these satellite data cover the study area with fairly high spatial resolution, their typically limited cloudless images pose serious restrictions for continuous observation of short-term dynamics, such as sub-seasonal changes. In this study, high spatiotemporal resolution (500 m and eight images per day) geostationary ocean color imager (GOCI) data with a high proportion of cloud-free images were used to monitor the characteristics of the Bohai Sea ice, including area and thickness. An object-based feature extraction method and an albedo-based thickness inversion model were used for estimating sea ice area and thickness, respectively. To demonstrate the efficacy of the new dataset, a total of 68 GOCI images were selected to analyze the evolution of sea ice area and thickness during the winter of 2012–2013 with severe sea ice conditions. The extracted sea ice area was validated using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data with higher spatial resolution, and the estimated sea ice thickness was found to be consistent with in situ observation results. The entire sea ice freezing–melting processes, including the key events such as the day with the maximum ice area and the first and last days of the frozen season, were better resolved by the high temporal-resolution GOCI data compared with MODIS or AVHRR data. Both characteristics were found to be closely correlated with cumulative freezing/melting degree days. Our study demonstrates the applicability of the GOCI data as an improved dataset for studying the Bohai Sea ice, particularly for purposes that require high temporal resolution data, such as sea ice disaster monitoring. Full article

The article presents the results of an analysis of the impact of cumulative negative air temperature degree-days (CDD) on formation of ice cover on the typical lowland river in the moderate climate zone (River Noteć, western Poland). During the period 1987–2013 the occurrence of a series of 306 consecutive days of negative air temperatures was identified in relation to atmospheric circulation in the winter seasons, with a duration of 1–53 days. The longest CDD series occurred in 2010, while low air temperatures were particularly frequent in the year 1996 (−600 °C·d). The analysis showed that this phenomenon was most identifiable in December. Research made it possible to distinguish two types of circulation, which were conducive to the cumulation of CDD. Using the logistic regression model it was determined that the probability of ice cover occurrence increased most rapidly in the lower course (−70 °C·d), while the weakest interdependence was observed along the other sections. On average, a one-degree-day increase of CDD was connected with an increase in the probability of a permanent ice cover appearing of approximately 1.2–5.7%. The results obtained are of particular significance for identifying the thermal and circulatory factors determining the appearance of ice cover on the rivers of the Polish Lowlands. Full article