Search Results (117)

Before the enactment of the Dodd–Frank Act, firm size was taken into account by rating agencies in determining the credit ratings of banks. Therefore, the “too-big-to-fail” problem was, at least partially, reflected in big banks’ elevated ratings, which are more than justified by intrinsic creditworthiness. What is unclear is whether the bond market still gives an additional discount in yield to big banks over and above the lower yield spread that is already reflected in the elevated credit ratings due to their size. In this study, we examine this question and document a significant incremental yield discount for large banks even after controlling for credit ratings. Furthermore, we find that big banks with lower ratings pay lower borrowing costs than non-big banks with higher ratings. This additional discount, however, mostly disappeared after the Dodd–Frank Act. Full article

Internal accounting control personnel constitute the operational foundation through which firms ensure the accuracy and reliability of financial reporting, yet their relevance to capital market outcomes remains insufficiently documented. This study evaluates whether investment in internal accounting control personnel is incorporated into corporate bond pricing by considering both the quantitative dimension of staffing levels and the qualitative dimension of personnel expertise. Corporate bond issuance data are merged with mandatory disclosures on internal accounting control personnel for manufacturing firms listed on the Korea Exchange between 2011 and 2021. The analysis shows a significantly negative association between internal accounting control personnel and corporate bond yield spreads, with personnel expertise further reinforcing this relationship. These patterns are consistent with the view that enhanced monitoring capacity and stronger reporting credibility reduce information asymmetry and perceived default risk among bond investors. The evidence positions internal accounting control personnel as an operational and signaling indicator of internal control effectiveness reflected in debt market pricing and suggests that investment in internal control staff extends beyond compliance to produce measurable financial benefits through lower borrowing costs. Full article

Investors reward reform progress. The progressive tightening of Qatar’s external sovereign credit spreads was underpinned by holistic reforms, fiscal spending discipline, and monetary policy credibility. In particular, investors may view fiscal spending discipline as an integral part of Qatar’s holistic reform and economic diversification. Greater broad-based reform progress also boosts the resilience of sovereign credit spreads to external shocks. The findings support fiscal and monetary policy reforms as part of the broader reform agenda in a holistic manner, as planned under the Third National Development Strategy. Full article

This study examines how sovereign risk shapes the financial performance of sustainable investments, using the MSCI Emerging Markets ESG Index as a reference. The analysis covers 24 emerging and frontier economies from Latin America, Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe during 2016–2025, a period marked by major global disruptions such as the COVID-19 crisis and post-2022 financial tightening. Sovereign risk dimensions are extracted through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied to sovereign CDS spreads, identifying a systemic component linked to global shocks and a structural component associated with domestic fundamentals and governance quality. These factors are integrated into a quantile regression framework alongside control variables—oil prices, interest rates, and global equity indices—capturing key macro-financial transmission channels. Results show a nonlinear, quantile-dependent relationship: systemic risk intensifies ESG losses under adverse conditions, while structural improvements support gains in upper quantiles. Control variables behave as expected, confirming the macro-financial sensitivity of ESG performance. The findings reveal that ESG returns are state-dependent and strongly influenced by sovereign credit dynamics, especially in emerging markets where external shocks and institutional fragility intersect. Strengthening sovereign governance and integrating risk diagnostics into ESG assessments are essential steps to enhance resilience and credibility in sustainable finance. Full article

This paper investigates the effect of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) scores and Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads on the profitability of Halkbank, one of the biggest state-owned banks in Türkiye, an emerging economy. To this end, we employ Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) and Markov Switching Regression (MSR) methods, taking into account non-linear market risks, using Halkbank’s quarterly data consisting of 63 observations for the period 2009Q1–2024Q3. Moreover, to prevent multicollinearity, we aggregate banking-specific and macroeconomic indicators into a single composite index using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Our MSR findings suggest that ESG scores and CDS spreads negatively affect bank profitability and that these effects are particularly pronounced during periods of high market volatility. Similarly, NARDL findings suggest that ESG scores have asymmetric effects on bank performance, with both positive and negative changes in ESG performance having a negative impact on profitability, and moreover, negative changes have a more negative impact on profitability. This means that the bank’s sustainability initiatives may be costly and negatively affect profitability in the short run, but these effects will be more negative if initiatives deteriorate. Our findings emphasize the need for banks to adopt a gradual ESG approach that enables them to increase their capacity without compromising financial stability and for regulatory structures to have a flexible and sophisticated risk management framework capable of rapidly adapting to different market conditions. Therefore, our study provides valuable insights to sector managers and policymakers regarding the financial implications of sustainability approaches. Full article

This study investigates the valuation of defaultable corporate bonds using a two-factor model of Markov-modulated stochastic volatility with double exponential jumps (2FMMSVDEJ). This model captures long- and short-term SV and asymmetrical jumps in the underlying asset value. Concurrently, the firm’s debt dynamics are governed by a Markov-modulated GBM (MMGBM) model to reflect state transitions. A dynamic measure change technique is employed to determine the pricing kernel, and the resulting credit spreads and default probabilities are analyzed. Full article

In-Lieu Fee programs are an important mechanism for compensatory mitigation in the United States and received wide-spread standardization after the regulatory mitigation rule change of 2008. On public lands, they are especially important for pooling funds from numerous small-scale impacts that might otherwise go unmitigated. This study examines the use cases of fee program credits on public lands since 2008. Using data from the Regulatory In-Lieu Fee and Bank Information Tracking System, I analyzed eleven active In-Lieu Fee programs approved post-2008 across 78 service areas, encompassing 1043 credit transactions. Transactions were categorized by credit amount, proportion, target ecosystems, and impact designations. The analysis highlights the influence of residential and commercial development, alongside resource extraction, as major contributors to fee program transactions, underscoring the program’s role in mitigating various development pressures. Residential, commercial, and government projects frequently co-occur within service areas, which can support policy planning to anticipate potential cumulative impacts and expected future impacts and credit demands. Furthermore, my analysis shows that impacts from resource extraction require proportionally larger offsets than those from residential or recreational activities. The findings suggest that programs on public lands can fill a niche distinct from mitigation banks, as they address a multitude of impacts while further allowing for the pooling of resources and funds from small-scale impacts, while the use of advance credits remains contentious for achieving no net loss. Full article

This study investigates how global monetary and oil shocks propagate across advanced and pegged oil economies, focusing on the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates over the period 2015–2023. It examines which transmission channels—liquidity, credit, or equity—serve as the dominant conduits of spillovers under fixed exchange rate regimes. To address this question, this paper develops a hybrid causal–computational framework that integrates high-frequency identification of monetary and oil shocks with econometric benchmarks (Local Projections and Time-Varying Parameter VARs) and a Graph Neural Network-based Causal Shock Network (GNN-CSN) enhanced with SHAP explainability. The results show that global monetary shocks significantly raise interbank funding costs in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while sovereign credit spreads remain largely stable, indicating that liquidity—not credit—constitutes the main transmission channel. Equity markets absorb much of the external adjustment, reflecting sectoral sensitivity to global cycles. By combining causal identification, dynamic estimation, and explainable machine learning, the framework improves predictive accuracy and transparency, offering new evidence on how external shocks shape financial dynamics in resource-dependent, dollar-pegged economies. Full article

Based on data from Chinese corporate bonds issued between 2014 and 2023, this study examines how ESG rating disagreement affects credit spreads. The results indicate that such disagreement significantly increases spreads through financial risk and information asymmetry channels, though this effect is mitigated by higher bond ratings. The impact is more pronounced in developed regions, highly marketized areas, less polluted and less competitive industries, non-Big Four audited firms, small enterprises, and state-owned enterprises. Increases in credit spreads are mainly driven by environmental and social rating disagreements, with the governance dimension playing a limited role. Full article

This study investigates the nonlinear and regime-dependent relationship between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads across a panel of developed and emerging economies from February 2010 to March 2025. Utilizing the Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (QQR) and Multivariate QQR (MQQR) frameworks, we capture the heterogeneous effects of CPU under varying market states and assess the marginal role of global risk factors, including geopolitical risk (GPR), economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and market volatility (VIX). The findings indicate that in developed markets, CPU exerts a nonlinear impact that intensifies during periods of heightened sovereign risk, while in low-risk regimes, its effect is often muted or reversed. In contrast, emerging economies exhibit more volatile and state-contingent responses, with CPU exerting stronger effects in calm conditions but diminishing in explanatory power once global risks are taken into account. These dynamics highlight the importance of institutional credibility and financial integration in moderating CPU-driven credit risk. Full article

This study investigates how bank mergers and acquisitions (M&As) reshape the monitoring architecture of syndicated loans and, by extension, borrowers’ financing conditions. Using a global panel of 20,299 syndicated loan contracts, originating in 43 countries between 1982 and 2020, we link LPC DealScan data to Securities Data Company M&A records to trace each loan’s lead arrangers before and after consolidation events. Fixed-effects regressions, enriched with borrower- and loan-level controls, reveal three key patterns. First, post-merger loans exhibit significantly more concentrated syndicates: the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index rises by roughly 130 points and lead arrangers retain an additional 0.8–1.1 percentage points of the loan, consistent with heightened monitoring incentives. Second, these effects are amplified when information asymmetry is acute, i.e., for opaque or unrated firms, supporting moral hazard theory predictions that lenders internalize greater risk by holding larger stakes. Third, relational capital tempers the impact of consolidation: borrowers with repeated pre-merger relationships face smaller increases in syndicate concentration, while switchers experience the most significant jumps. Robustness checks using lead arranger market share, alternative spread measures, and lag structures confirm the findings. Overall, the results suggest that bank consolidation strengthens lead arrangers’ incentives to monitor but simultaneously reduces risk-sharing among participant lenders. For borrowers, the net effect is a trade-off between potentially tighter oversight and reduced syndicate diversification, with the balance hinging on transparency and prior ties to the lender. These insights refine our understanding of how structural shifts in the banking sector cascade into corporate credit markets and should inform both antitrust assessments and borrower funding strategies. Full article

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused market turmoil and economic distress. To understand the effect of the pandemic on the U.S. financial systemic risk, we analyze the explanatory power of detailed COVID-19 data on three market-based systemic risk measures (SRMs): Conditional Value at Risk, Distress Insurance Premium, and SRISK. In the time-series dimension, we use the Dynamic OLS model and find that financial variables, such as credit default swap spreads, equity correlation, and firm size, significantly affect the SRMs, but the COVID-19 variables do not appear to drive the SRMs. However, if we focus on the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, we find a positive and significant COVID-19 effect, especially before the government interventions. In the cross-sectional dimension, we run fixed-effect and event-study regressions with clustered variance-covariance matrices. We find that market capitalization helps to reduce a firm’s contribution to the SRMs, while firm size significantly predicts the surge in a firm’s SRM contribution when the pandemic first hits the system. The policy implications include that proper market interventions can help to mitigate the negative pandemic effect, and policymakers should continue the current regulation of required capital holding and consider size when designating systemically important financial institutions. Full article

This study explores the impact of credit spreads—defined as the difference between corporate bond yields and matched government bond yields—and macro-financial conditions on Japanese firms’ decision-making regarding whether to issue corporate bonds in domestic or international markets. Using firm-level panel data from 2010 to 2019, we employ fixed-effects regressions to identify the determinants of credit spreads and assess their influence on issuance location. The results suggest that firms strategically opt for foreign markets when anticipating narrower spreads, despite the typically higher borrowing costs associated with overseas issuance. Sensitivity to credit spreads systematically varies with issuer characteristics—such as leverage and credit ratings—and market elements—including the United States volatility and stock performance. Interaction models further demonstrate that market selection dynamically responds to pricing signals and uncertainty. By connecting credit spread formation to venue choice, this study provides a new perspective on cross-border financing in segmented capital markets. These findings offer theoretical insights and practical implications for understanding how firms adapt their debt strategies in response to global financial conditions. Full article

Many of the existing theoretical and empirical studies ignore the two-way relationship between a sovereign’s credit risk and economy. To address this gap, we develop a theoretical model that incorporates the feedback effects of sovereign-debt credit risk on a country’s economy and then provide empirical implications. The model links the risks of sovereign debt and economic fundamentals through a two-way transmission mechanism. In doing so, it demonstrates how economic-fundamentals-driven sovereign-debt credit risk can have a significant impact on economic fundamentals through a feedback effect that has the potential to significantly raise the sensitivity of a country’s economic performance to shocks from both the credit risk associated with sovereign debt and economic fundamentals. The outcomes of the theoretical model are then verified by empirically testing the feedback effects using a structural equation model (SEM) framework on data covering sovereign debt defaults worldwide. We demonstrate how disregarding feedback effects may result in information that is insufficient and less helpful to public-debt-management policymakers. Full article

A significant share of many commercial banks’ portfolios consists of residential mortgage loans provided to individuals and families. This paper examines the default and rational prepayment risk of single-borrower (residential) mortgage loans based on an option pricing model that captures the skewness and kurtosis of the house prices returns’ distribution via the shifted lognormal distribution. Equilibrium option-adjusted credit spreads are obtained from the implementation of the model under plausible values of the relevant parameters. The methodology involves numerical experiments, using a shifted binomial tree model by Haathela and Camara and Chung, to evaluate the effects of the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, asset volatility, interest rates, and recovery costs on mortgage valuation. Findings indicate prepayment risk significantly influences loan value, as it limits upside potential, while LTV and volatility directly impact default risk. The shifting parameter (θ) in the asset distribution proves essential for accurate risk assessment. Conclusions emphasize the need for mortgage underwriting to consider specific asset characteristics, optimal loan structures, and prevailing risk-free rates to avoid underestimating risk. This model can aid in the more robust pricing and management of mortgage portfolios, especially relevant in regions with substantial mortgage-backed exposure, such as the European banking system. Full article