Search Results (46)

The estimation of age-to-age development factors is fundamental to loss reserving, with direct implications for risk management and regulatory compliance in the auto insurance sector. The precise and robust estimation of these factors underpins the credibility of case reserves and the effective management of future claim liabilities. This study investigates the underlying structure and sources of variability in development factor estimates by applying multivariate statistical techniques to the analysis of development triangles. Departing from conventional univariate summaries (e.g., mean or median), we introduce a comprehensive framework that incorporates temporal clustering of development factors and addresses associated modeling complexities, including high dimensionality and temporal dependency. The proposed methodology enhances interpretability and captures latent structures in the data, thereby improving the reliability of reserve estimates. Our findings contribute to the advancement of reserving practices by offering a more nuanced understanding of development factor behavior under uncertainty. Full article

This study addresses key challenges in auto insurance territory risk analysis by examining the complexities of spatial loss data and the evolving landscape of territorial risks before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditional approaches, such as spatial clustering, are commonly used for territory risk assessment but offer limited predictive capabilities, constraining their effectiveness in forecasting future losses, an essential component of insurance pricing. To overcome this limitation, we propose an advanced predictive modeling framework that integrates spatial loss patterns while accounting for the pandemic’s impact. Our Bayesian-based spatial model captures stochastic spatial autocorrelations among territory rating units and their neighboring regions. This approach enables more robust pattern recognition through predictive modeling. By applying this approach to regulatory auto insurance loss datasets, we analyze industry-level trends in claim frequency, loss severity, loss cost, and insurance loading. The results reveal significant shifts in spatial loss patterns before and during the pandemic, highlighting the dynamic interplay between regional risk factors and external disruptions. These insights provide valuable guidance for insurers and regulators, facilitating more informed decision-making in risk classification, pricing adjustments, and policy interventions in response to evolving spatial and economic conditions. Full article

This study endeavors to explore the shock-transmission mechanism between Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) and the volatility inherent in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Islamic stock markets by employing the novel Quantile Vector Auto Regression (QVAR) with “Extended Joint” and “Frequency” domain connectedness technique. Overall findings indicated a U-shaped pattern in the shock-transmission mechanism with the higher TPU shocks transmitted towards Islamic stock market volatility at the extreme quantiles and in the long term. The “Extended Joint” QVAR connectedness approach highlights that, in bearish and moderate-volatility conditions (τ = 0.05, 0.50), diversifying portfolios across less shock-prone equity markets like Qatar and UAE can mitigate risk exposure to TPU shocks. Specific economies receiving higher TPU shocks, like Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, should implement strategic frameworks, including trade credit insurance and currency hedging, for risk reduction in trade policy shocks during the bearish and moderate-volatility conditions. Conversely, Qatar and Kuwait show the least transmission of error variance from TPU during higher-volatility conditions (τ = 0.95). Moreover, the application of the Frequency-domain QVAR technique underscores the need for short-term speculators to exercise increased vigilance during bearish and bullish volatile periods, as TPU shocks can exert a more substantial influence on the Islamic equity market volatility of Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Long-term investors may need to tailor their asset-allocation strategies by increasing allocations to more stable assets that are less susceptible to TPU shocks, such as Qatar, during bearish (τ = 0.05), moderate (τ = 0.50), and bullish (τ = 0.95) volatility. Full article

Conventional inspections in car damage assessments depend on visual judgments by human inspectors, which are labor-intensive and prone to fraudulent practices through manipulating damages. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence have given rise to a state-of-the-art object detection algorithm, the You Only Look Once algorithm (YOLO), that sets a new standard in smart and automated damage assessment. This study proposes an enhanced YOLOv9 network tailored to detect six types of car damage. The enhancements include the convolutional block attention module (CBAM), applied to the backbone layer to enhance the model’s ability to focus on key damaged regions, and the SCYLLA-IoU (SIoU) loss function, introduced for bounding box regression. To be able to assess the damage severity comprehensively, we propose a novel formula named damage severity index (DSI) for quantifying damage severity directly from images, integrating multiple factors such as the number of detected damages, the ratio of damage to the image size, object detection confidence, and the type of damage. Experimental results on the CarDD dataset show that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art YOLO algorithms by 1.75% and that the proposed DSI demonstrates intuitive assessment of damage severity with numbers, aiding repair decisions. Full article

This study investigates the impacts of autonomous vehicles (AVs) on the insurance industry from the viewpoint of insurance companies, highlighting the necessity for adaptation due to technological advancements. The research is motivated by the gap in understanding between traditional insurers and automaker-backed insurance services regarding AV implications. The purpose is to identify potential impacts, evaluate the level of concern among diverse insurance companies, and examine their differing perspectives. The methodology includes a literature review, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and Spearman correlation analysis. The literature review clarifies the definition of AVs and their impacts on traditional insurance. The AHP assesses the level of concern among insurance companies, and Spearman correlation analysis explores the similarities and differences in perspectives. The findings show that insurance companies largely agree on the transformative impacts of AVs. The primary effects are in “Updates in Insurance Business Operations” and the “Emergence of New Risks”, with less impact on “Changes in the Insurance Market”. A major concern is the complexity of multi-party liability claims. Companies differ in their focus on specific impacts like legal frameworks or system malfunctions, but share concerns about multi-party liability, system malfunctions, and legal gaps. The study anticipates minor impacts on market dynamics and traditional insurance models. The conclusions emphasize that AVs will significantly impact the insurance industry, requiring innovation and adaptation to maintain competitiveness. This includes developing new products, optimizing processes, and collaborating with stakeholders. The study has several implications: customized insurance products, optimized no-fault claims processes, collaborations with automakers and tech firms, data-driven risk assessments, enhanced risk management, and adapting traditional models. Recommendations include building loss experience databases, adopting no-fault insurance, strategic partnerships, developing customized products, strengthening risk management and cybersecurity, monitoring regulations, adjusting traditional models, focusing on product liability insurance, and training professionals. Full article

A Bonus–Malus System (BMS) is a ratemaking mechanism used in insurance to adjust premiums based on a policyholder’s claim history, with the goal of segmenting risk profiles more accurately. A BMS typically comprises three key components: the number of BMS levels, the transition rules dictating the movements of policyholders within the system, and the relativities used to determine premium adjustments. This paper explores the impact of modifications to these three elements on risk classification, assessed through the mean squared error. The model parameters are calibrated with real-world data from the Saudi auto insurance market. We begin the analysis by focusing on transition rules based solely on claim frequency, a framework in which most implemented BMSs work, including the current Saudi BMS. We then consider transition rules that depend on frequency and severity, in which higher penalties are given for large claim sizes. The results show that increasing the number of levels typically improves risk segmentation but requires balancing practical implementation constraints and that the adequate selection of the penalties is critical to enhancing fairness. Moreover, the study reveals that incorporating a severity-based penalty enhances risk differentiation, especially when there is a dependence between the claim frequency and severity. Full article

In the transportation services industry, the proper assessment of insurance claim count distribution is an important step to determine insurance premiums based on policyholders’ risk profiles. Risk factors are identified through regression analysis. In this paper, the inverse trinomial distribution is proposed as a count data model for insurance claims characterised by having long tails and a high index of dispersion. Two regression models are developed to identify associated risk factors. Other popular models, such as the negative binomial and COM-Poisson, are fitted and compared to information criteria. The risk profiles of policyholders are determined based on the selected model. To illustrate the application of the inverse trinomial regression models, the ausprivautolong dataset of automobile claims in Australia has been fitted with identification of risk factors. Full article

The aim of this article is to explore the impact of digitalization on corporate social responsibility (CSR) in the automobile insurance sector in Morocco. This article first explores the theoretical and conceptual foundations of digital transformation and CSR. A mixed methods approach is then used, combining qualitative interviews with a wider quantitative survey, to investigate how digital innovations influence CSR practices. Interview analysis provides the basis for the development of a conceptual framework and eight hypotheses, which are then tested using quantitative techniques to analyze survey data. The results reveal several links between the benefits of digitalization and CSR. Claims management platforms, digital roadside assistance tools, and digital vehicle assessment and inspection all positively impact policyholders’ well-being in terms of compensation and asset preservation, thereby enhancing the CSR profile of automobile insurers. Similarly, augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) training and simulation, as well as repair assistance, have positive impacts on policyholders’ well-being and advance the CSR positioning of automobile insurers. This article has limitations as it is based on a narrow industrial sector in a single country, but it nonetheless highlights certain relevant interrelationships between digitalization and CSR, contributing to the development of theory and practice in these research areas. Full article

This study examines how telematics variables such as annual percentage driven, total miles driven, and driving patterns influence the distributional behaviour of conventional rating factors when incorporated into predictive models for capturing auto insurance risk in rate regulation. To effectively manage the complexity inherent in telematics data, we advocate for the adoption of non-negative sparse principal component analysis (NSPCA) as a structured approach for data dimensionality reduction. By emphasizing sparsity and non-negativity constraints, NSPCA enhances the interpretability and predictive power of models concerning both loss severity and claim counts. This methodological innovation aims to advance statistical analyses within insurance pricing frameworks, ensuring the robustness of predictive models and providing insights crucial for rate regulation strategies specific to the auto insurance sector. Results show that, to enhance auto insurance risk pricing models, it is essential to address data dimension reduction challenges when integrating telematics data variables. Our findings underscore that integrating telematics variables into predictive models maintains the integrity of risk relativity estimates associated with traditional policy variables. Full article

In this paper, we study a risk model with stochastic premium income and its impact on solvency risk management. It is assumed that both the premium arrival process and the claim arrival process are modelled by homogeneous Poisson processes, and that the premium amounts are modelled by independent and identically distributed random variables. While this model has been studied in the existing literature and certain explicit results are known under more restrictive assumptions, these results are relatively difficult to apply in practice. In this paper, we investigate the factors that differentiate this model and the classical risk model. After reviewing various known results of this model, we derive a simulation approach for obtaining the probability of ultimate ruin based on importance sampling, which does not require specific distributions for the premium and the claim. We demonstrate this approach first with examples where the distribution of the sampling random variable can be identified. We then provide additional examples where we use the fast Fourier transform to obtain an approximation of the sampling random variable. The simulated results are compared with the known results for the probability of ruin. Using the simulation approach, we apply this model to a real-life auto-insurance data set. Differences with the classical model are then discussed. Finally, we comment on the suitability and impact of using this model in the context of solvency risk management. Full article

We leverage telematics data on driving behavior variables to assess driver risk and predict future insurance claims in a case study utilising a representative telematics sample. In the study, we aim to categorise drivers according to their driving habits and establish premiums that accurately reflect their driving risk. To accomplish our goal, we employ the two-stage Poisson model, the Poisson mixture model, and the Zero-Inflated Poisson model to analyse the telematics data. These models are further enhanced by incorporating regularisation techniques such as lasso, adaptive lasso, elastic net, and adaptive elastic net. Our empirical findings demonstrate that the Poisson mixture model with the adaptive lasso regularisation outperforms other models. Based on predicted claim frequencies and drivers’ risk groups, we introduce a novel usage-based experience rating premium pricing method. This method enables more frequent premium updates based on recent driving behaviour, providing instant rewards and incentivising responsible driving practices. Consequently, it helps to alleviate cross-subsidization among risky drivers and improves the accuracy of loss reserving for auto insurance companies. Full article

This research delves into the fusion of spatial clustering and predictive modeling within auto insurance data analytics. The primary focus of this research is on addressing challenges stemming from the dynamic nature of spatial patterns in multiple accident year claim data, by using spatially constrained clustering. The spatially constrained clustering is implemented under hierarchical clustering with a soft contiguity constraint. It is highly desirable for insurance companies and insurance regulators to be able to make meaningful comparisons of loss patterns obtained from multiple reporting years that summarize multiple accident year loss metrics. By integrating spatial clustering techniques, the study not only improves the credibility of predictive models but also introduces a strategic dimension reduction method that concurrently enhances the interpretability of predictive models used. The evolving nature of spatial patterns over time poses a significant barrier to a better understanding of complex insurance systems as these patterns transform due to various factors. While spatial clustering effectively identifies regions with similar loss data characteristics, maintaining up-to-date clusters is an ongoing challenge. This research underscores the importance of studying spatial patterns of auto insurance claim data across major insurance coverage types, including Accident Benefits (AB), Collision (CL), and Third-Party Liability (TPL). The research offers regulators valuable insights into distinct risk profiles associated with different coverage categories and territories. By leveraging spatial loss data from pre-pandemic and pandemic periods, this study also aims to uncover the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on auto insurance claims of major coverage types. From this perspective, we observe a statistically significant increase in insurance premiums for CL coverage after the pandemic. The proposed unified spatial clustering method incorporates a relabeling strategy to standardize comparisons across different accident years, contributing to a more robust understanding of the pandemic effects on auto insurance claims. This innovative approach has the potential to significantly influence data visualization and pattern recognition, thereby improving the reliability and interpretability of clustering methods. Full article

The objective of this paper is to assess the behavior of policyholders and insurance companies in the presence of adverse selection by accounting for costly search and selection efforts, respectively. Insurers seek to stave off high-risk types, while consumers are hypothesized to maximize coverage at a given premium. Reaction functions are derived for the two players giving rise to Nash equilibria in efforts space, which are separating almost certainly regardless of the share of low risks in the market. Empirical evidence from the Australian market for automobile insurance is analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling. Convergence has been achieved with both the developmental and test samples. Both consumer search and insurer selection are found to be positively correlated with risk type, providing a good measure of empirical support for the theoretical model. Full article

This study delves into a critical examination of the Size of Loss distribution patterns in the context of auto insurance during pre- and post-pandemics, emphasizing their profound influence on insurance pricing and regulatory frameworks. Through a comprehensive analysis of the historical Size of Loss data, insurers and regulators gain essential insights into the probabilities and magnitudes of insurance claims, informing the determination of precise insurance premiums and the management of case reserving. This approach aids in fostering fair competition, ensuring equitable premium rates, and preventing discriminatory pricing practices, thereby promoting a balanced insurance landscape. The research further investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on these Size of Loss patterns, given the substantial shifts in driving behaviours and risk landscapes. Also, the research contributes to the literature by addressing the need for more studies focusing on the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on pre- and post-pandemic auto insurance loss patterns, thus offering a holistic perspective encompassing both insurance pricing and regulatory dimensions. Full article

The successful investigation and prosecution of significant crimes, including child pornography, insurance fraud, movie piracy, traffic monitoring, and scientific fraud, hinge largely on the availability of solid evidence to establish the case beyond any reasonable doubt. When dealing with digital images/videos as evidence in such investigations, there is a critical need to conclusively prove the source camera/device of the questioned image. Extensive research has been conducted in the past decade to address this requirement, resulting in various methods categorized into brand, model, or individual image source camera identification techniques. This paper presents a survey of all those existing methods found in the literature. It thoroughly examines the efficacy of these existing techniques for identifying the source camera of images, utilizing both intrinsic hardware artifacts such as sensor pattern noise and lens optical distortion, and software artifacts like color filter array and auto white balancing. The investigation aims to discern the strengths and weaknesses of these techniques. The paper provides publicly available benchmark image datasets and assessment criteria used to measure the performance of those different methods, facilitating a comprehensive comparison of existing approaches. In conclusion, the paper outlines directions for future research in the field of source camera identification. Full article