Search Results (57)

Accurate short-term precipitation forecasting (nowcasting) based on weather radar data is essential for managing weather-related risks, particularly in applications such as airport operations, urban flood prevention, and public safety during outdoor events. This study proposes a computationally efficient nowcasting method based on a Lagrangian advection scheme, estimating both the translation and rotation of radar-observed precipitation fields without relying on machine learning or resource-intensive computation. The method was tested on a two-year dataset (2022–2023) over Tuscany, using data collected from the Italian Civil Protection Department’s radar network. Forecast performance was evaluated using the Critical Success Index (CSI) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) across varying spatial domains (1° × 1° to 2° × 2°) and precipitation regimes. The results show that, for high-intensity events (average rate > 1 mm/h), the method achieved CSI scores exceeding 0.5 for lead times up to 2 h. In the case of low-intensity rainfall (average rate < 0.3 mm/h), its forecasting skill dropped after 20–30 min. Forecast accuracy was shown to be highly sensitive to the temporal stability of precipitation intensity. The method performed well under quasi-stationary stratiform conditions, whereas its skill declined during rapidly evolving convective events. The method has low computational requirements, with forecasts generated in under one minute on standard hardware, and it is well suited for real-time application in regional meteorological centres. Overall, the findings highlight the method’s effective balance between simplicity and performance, making it a practical and scalable option for operational nowcasting in settings with limited computational capacity. Its deployment is currently being planned at the LaMMA Consortium, the official meteorological service of Tuscany. Full article

Accurate short-term passenger forecasts help regional airports align capacity with demand and plan investments effectively. Drawing on quarterly traffic data for 2010–2024 supplied by the Polish Civil Aviation Authority, this study employs Holt–Winters exponential smoothing to predict passenger volumes at Szczecin–Goleniów Airport for 2025. Additive and multiplicative formulations were parameterized with Excel Solver, using the mean absolute percentage error to identify the better-fitting model. The additive version captured both the steady post-pandemic recovery and pronounced seasonal peaks, indicating that passenger throughput is likely to rise modestly year on year, with the highest loads expected in the summer quarter and the lowest in early spring. These findings suggest the airport should anticipate continued growth and consider adjustments to terminal capacity, apron allocation, and staffing schedules to maintain service quality. Because the Holt–Winters method extrapolates historical patterns and does not incorporate external shocks—such as economic downturns, policy changes, or public health crises—its projections are most reliable over the short horizon examined and should be complemented by scenario-based analyses in future work. This study contributes to sustainable airport management by providing a reproducible, data-driven forecasting framework that can optimize resource allocation with minimal environmental impact. Full article

The optimisation of airport infrastructure capacities lacks adequate tools that would enable airport owners and managers to make strategic decisions related to sustainable development and strengthening multimodal connectivity. Assessing the sustainability of the transport system is one of the important issues in creating transport policies worldwide. In this research, the methodology of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) was used, which can be applied to decision making and the evaluation of transport projects, considering more than one criterion in the selection process. The Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) method is one of the new MCDM methods. The SWARA method will assess the weights of the selected main criteria and sub-criteria for the multimodal connection of airports to the railway transport infrastructure. In this method, the expert plays an important role in the evaluation and calculation of the criteria weights. This research also aims to respond to the need to define a framework for objective and transparent decision-making based on the assessment of the weighting factors of the selected main criteria and sub-criteria. To assess the justification for the choice of railway transport for connecting airports, financial, traffic, environmental, and availability criteria were used. Full article

Congested airspace conflict resolution during terminal operations is a common air traffic management issue that may produce cascading delays. Vehicles needing emergency clearance to land, at either traditional airports or vertiports, would require others on approach to move out of the way and, in some instances, cause a wave of delay to propagate through all vehicles on approach. Specifically, uncrewed aerial systems utilizing near-maximum arrival rates would be greatly impacted when requested to move off their approach path and may interfere with others. Vertiports further complicate crowded approaches because vehicles can arrive from many different angles at the same time to maximize landing area usage. Traditional air traffic management techniques were studied for vertiport applications specific to high-capacity operations. This work investigated methods of uniformly re-directing vehicles on approach to a vertiport that would be impacted by an emergency vehicle to minimize or avoid cascading delays. A route of time-optimal Bézier curves as well as Dubins paths optimized for interception heading was generated and flown on as an alternate maneuver when an unaccounted-for emergency vehicle initiated a bypass of an air traffic fleet. A comparison to flight on a holding pattern showed that the Bézier and Dubins route improved delay times and mitigated a cascading delay effect. Full article

The rapid expansion of China’s civil aviation sector, particularly within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei airport cluster, has led to significant airspace congestion and operational inefficiencies. This study develops a dynamic flight slot allocation model that integrates both airport and airspace capacity constraints, accounting for real-time fluctuations in resource availability. The model aims to optimize slot distribution, minimize delays, and enhance operational efficiency by adapting to variations in airport and waypoint capacities, offering a more flexible solution compared with traditional static approaches. A case study based on real-world data from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region demonstrates the model’s effectiveness. Computational experiments show that incorporating capacity fluctuations significantly reduces the need for slot adjustments, particularly at secondary airports with volatile demand. The results indicate a marked improvement in operational efficiency, including reduced adjustment times and fewer affected flights. This research underscores the value of adaptive data-driven strategies in managing complex air traffic systems and provides valuable insights for policymakers and aviation authorities. Future research could extend this work by incorporating additional dynamic factors, such as weather conditions and emerging technologies, to further enhance the sustainability and efficiency of air traffic management. Full article

Air pollutant concentration prediction is essential not only for effective air quality management but also for planning aircraft and ground vehicle route networks in terminal areas. In this work, an artificial neural network (ANN) is used to predict the concentration levels of four types of air pollutants (CO, NO₂, PM_2.5, and PM₁₀) at Suvarnabhumi International Airport. By leveraging Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) historical data, aircraft trajectory pattern clustering is implemented by using K-means and Gaussian mixture model (GMM) clustering algorithms. Then, those trajectory patterns are inputted together with other flight data into ANN computation processes, resulting in an effective air pollutant prediction model for each kind of focus pollutant. The results demonstrate that the mean square errors (MSEs) of the predicted models for CO and PM_2.5 have acceptable values of 51.7622 and 53.9682, respectively, while the predicted model for NO₂ and PM₁₀ has MSEs of 139.6674 and 124.2517, respectively. This study contributes to the advancement of air pollutant prediction methodologies, facilitating better decision-making processes, proactive air quality management, and route network planning at airports. Although some prediction models for focused air pollutants have slightly high MSEs, further study is needed to enhance the prediction model capacity. Full article

The complexity and resource-sharing nature of traffic within multi-airport regions present significant challenges for air traffic management. This paper aims to develop a mesoscopic traffic model for exploring the traffic dynamics under coupled operations, and thus to conduct capacity decoupling analysis. We propose an integrated surface–airspace model. In the surface model, we utilize linear regression and random forest regression to model unimpeded taxiing time and taxiway network delays due to sparsity of ground traffic. In the airspace model, a dualized queuing network topology is constructed including a runway system, where the $G(t)/GI/s(t)$ fluid queuing model is applied, and an inter-node traffic flow transmission mechanism is introduced to simulate airspace network traffic. Based on the hybrid and efficient model, we employ a Monte Carlo approach and use a quantile regression envelope model for capacity decoupling analysis. Using the Shanghai multi-airport region as a case study, the model’s performance is validated from the perspectives of operation time and traffic throughput. The results show that our model accurately represents traffic dynamics and estimates delays within an acceptable margin of error. The capacity decoupling analysis effectively captures the interdependence in traffic flow caused by resource sharing, both within a single airport and between airports. Full article

Grasping the effective carrying capacity of airport hub subway stations in real-time serves as the foundation for enhancing the safety assurance capability of the hub. Starting from the perspectives of multiple subsystems, including people, stations, and trains, and combining passenger flow, system structure, and multiple attributes of trains, a system dynamics (SD) model for passenger travel in airport hub subway stations is established. The model is simulated using Vensim PLE 5.9d to analyze the effective carrying capacity of the transfer system under the existing configuration and layout of transfer facilities and equipment in the hub. The model features a modular architecture and interface, enabling quick and easy model establishment, and adapts to various configurations and operational characteristics of airport hub subway stations in a user-friendly manner. Multiple sensitivity simulation analysis experiments are designed to analyze changes in passenger flow density from multiple perspectives. This method can calculate the effective carrying capacity of airport hub subway stations, providing a scientific basis for planning, construction, and operational management. The effectiveness of the model is verified by analyzing the Pudong International Airport terminal subway station. Full article

Airport slot allocation is a key short-term solution to address airport capacity constraints, and it has long been a focus of research in the field of air traffic management. The existing studies primarily consider constraints such as airport capacity and flight operations, optimizing the slot allocation of arrival and departure flights to maximize the utilization of airport resources. This study proposes an airline fairness index based on a demand-side value system and addresses the problem of flight slot allocation by developing a tri-objective model. The model simultaneously considers the maximum slot deviation, total slot deviation, and airline fairness. Additionally, dynamic capacity constraints using rolling time windows and constraints on slot migration during peak periods are incorporated. The $\epsilon$-constraint method is employed in conjunction with a large-neighborhood search heuristic to solve a two-stage optimization process, yielding an efficient allocation scheme. The experimental results show that the introduction of rolling capacity constraints effectively resolves the issue of continuous overcapacity that arises when only a fixed capacity is considered. Additionally, the proposed airline fairness index, based on a demand-side value system, can significantly improve fairness during the slot allocation process. By sacrificing at most 16% of the total displacement, it is possible to reduce the unfairness index by nearly 80%. Full article

This work proposes a single regime speed–flow model to fit the speed–flow relationship on the M25, London’s main motorway which is recurrently congested, especially near Heathrow Airport. The proposed model had a better performance compared with the existing classic models. A whole year’s field data on various sites of the M25 motorway were collected by the National Highways MIDAS (Motorway Incident Detection and Automatic Signalling) system and analysed. The proposed model was fitter on both four-lane and lane-by-lane conditions than the existing models, in terms of lower relative error and RMSE values and higher R² values (minimum R² = 0.79), which means the proposed model captured the speed–flow relationship better. In addition, the proposed model was used to fit traffic characteristics under different weather conditions and decided the threshold of the CM algorithms using the Gaussian function. The results showed that both free-flow speed and road capacity were significantly reduced by up to 7% and 11%, respectively, under different rainfall conditions, and that congestion management should be triggered in advance on rainy days. Further analysis of extensive data over a wider space and time is required to test the transferability of these findings to other contexts. Full article

Background: In recent decades, the size and passenger capacity of cruise/passenger ships has been associated with noticeable growth; in turn, this has created significant concerns regarding the adequacy of existing evacuation protocols during an “abandon the ship” situation (life threatening emergency). This study provides a systematic overview of related weaknesses and challenges, identifying critical factors that influence evacuation efficiency, and also proposes innovative/interdisciplinary solutions to address those challenges. It further emphasizes the growing complexity of cruise/passenger ship evacuations due to increased vessel size/heavy density of human population, as well as identifying the necessity of addressing both technical and human-centered elements to enhance safety and efficiency of those specific operations. Methods: Guided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) approach, a comprehensive systematic literature search was conducted across academic databases, including Scopus, Science Direct, Google Scholar, and a limited number of academic journals that are heavily maritime-focused in their mission. Emphasis was placed on peer-reviewed articles and certain gray studies exploring the impacts of ship design, human behavior, group dynamics, and environmental conditions on evacuation outcomes. This review prioritized research incorporating advanced simulation models, crowd management solutions (applied in various disciplines, such as stadiums, airports, malls, and ships), real-world case studies, and established practices aligned with contemporary maritime safety standards. Results: The key findings identify several critical factors influencing the overall evacuation efficiency, including ship heeling angles, staircase configurations, and passenger (physical) characteristics (with their mobility capabilities and related demographics clearly standing out, among others). This effort underscores the pivotal role of group dynamics, including the influence of group size, familiarity among the group, and leader-following behaviors, in shaping evacuation outcomes. Advanced technological solutions, such as dynamic wayfinding systems, real-time monitoring, and behavior-based simulation models, emerged as essential tools for optimizing an evacuation process. Innovative strategies to mitigate identified challenges, such as phased evacuations, optimized muster station placements, and tailor made/strategic passenger cabin allocations to reduce congestion during an evacuation and enhance the overall evacuation flow, are also highlighted. Conclusions: Protecting people facing a life-threatening situation requires timely preparations. The need for a holistic evacuation strategy that effectively integrates specific ship design considerations and human factors management, along with inputs related to advanced information technology-related solutions, is the best way forward. At the same time, the importance of real-time adaptive management systems and interdisciplinary approaches to address the challenges of modern cruise/passenger ship evacuations clearly stands out. These findings provide a robust foundation for future research and practical applications, contributing to advancements in maritime safety and the development of efficient evacuation protocols for large-in-size cruise/passenger vessels. Full article

Over the past forty years, air traffic flow management (ATFM) has garnered significant attention since the initial approach was introduced to address single-airport ground delay issues. Traditional methods for solving both single- and multi-airport ground delay problems primarily rely on operations research techniques and are typically formulated as mixed-integer problems (MIPs), with solvers employed to approximate optimal solutions. Despite their effectiveness in smaller-scale problems, these approaches struggle with the complexity and scalability required for large-scale, multi-sector ATFM, leading to suboptimal performance in real-time scenarios. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel neural network-based demand and capacity balancing (NN-DCB) method that leverages neural branching and neural diving to efficiently solve the ATFM problem. Using data from 15,927 flight trajectories across 287 airspace sectors on a typical day in February 2024, our method re-allocates trajectory entry and exit times in each sector. The results demonstrate that large-scale ATFM problems can be solved within 15 min, offering a significant performance improvement over the state-of-the-art methods. This study confirms that neural network-based approaches are more effective for large-scale ATFM problem-solving. Full article

To enhance the operational management capabilities of general aviation airports, this paper proposes a method for evaluating the runway capacity of general aviation airports based on the runway expansion system. Firstly, it provides a brief introduction to the flight rules of general aviation airports and arrival and departure flight procedures with symmetrical characteristics, which serve as a theoretical basis for establishing the runway expansion system. Subsequently, a runway expansion system that covers symmetrical flight activities such as departure and arrival under a visual flight rule and an instrument flight rule is proposed, providing a conceptual model for evaluating the runway capacity of general aviation airports. On this foundation, the classical space–time analysis model is improved to establish a single runway arrival, departure, and mixed operation capacity evaluation model for general aviation airports. Finally, the reliability and rationality of this method are verified through case evaluations and three sets of numerical experiments with symmetrical relationships. The experiments demonstrate that this method can better reflect the actual conditions of the runways at general aviation airports while ensuring flight safety, and it can provide a reference for related research. Full article

This paper presents a multi-agent simulation implemented in Python, using fuzzy logic to explore collective battery recharge management for autonomous industrial vehicles (AIVs) in an airport environment. This approach offers adaptability and resilience through a distributed system, taking into account variations in AIV battery capacity. Simulation scenarios were based on a proposed charging/discharging model for an AIV battery. The results highlight the effectiveness of adaptive fuzzy multi-agent models in optimizing charging strategies, improving operational efficiency, and reducing energy consumption. Dynamic factors such as workload variations and AIV-infrastructure communication are taken into account in the form of heuristics, underlining the importance of flexible and collaborative approaches in autonomous systems. In particular, an infrastructure capable of optimizing charging according to energy tariffs can significantly reduce consumption during peak hours, highlighting the importance of such strategies in dynamic environments. An optimal control model is established to improve the energy consumption of each AIV during its mission. The energy consumption depends on the speed, as demonstrated via numerical simulations using realistic data. The speed profile of each AIV is adjusted according to the various constraints within an airport. Overall, the study highlights the potential of incorporating adaptive fuzzy multi-agent models for AIV energy management to boost efficiency and sustainability in industrial operations. Full article

The airside is a principal subsystem in the intricate airport systems. This study focuses on introducing a digital twin framework for analyzing the delays and capacity of airports. This framework encompasses a diverse array of authentic features pertaining to a civil airport for a mixture of both landing and departing flights. Being a decision support for the management of international airports, all sizes and weight categories of aircraft are considered permissible, each with their own unique service time and speed requirements in accordance with the global aviation regulations. The proposed discrete event simulation digital twin provides a real-time demonstration of the system performance with the possibility of predicting the future outcomes of managerial decisions. Additionally, this twin is equipped with an advanced and realistic 3D visualization that facilitates a more comprehensive understanding of the ongoing operations. To assess its efficiency in practice, the framework was implemented at an international airport. The statistical tests revealed the superior similarity between the proposed twin and the real system. Using this twin, we further optimized the studied system by analyzing its projected future performance under a set of scenarios. This resulted in a nearly 30% upgrade in the capacity of this airport while decreasing the expected delays by over 18% annually. Full article