Search Results (45)

Background/Objectives: The SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 pandemics have resulted in high numbers of ICU admissions, with high mortality. Identifying risk factors for ICU mortality at the time of admission can help optimize clinical decision making. However, the risk factors identified may differ, depending on the type of analysis used. Our aim is to compare the risk factors and performance of a linear model (multivariable logistic regression, GLM) with a non-linear model (random forest, RF) in a large national cohort. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on a multicenter database including 8902 critically ill patients with influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 or COVID-19 admitted to 184 Spanish ICUs. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and microbiological data from the first 24 h were used. Prediction models were built using GLM and RF. The performance of the GLM was evaluated by area under the ROC curve (AUC), precision, sensitivity, and specificity, while the RF by out-of-bag (OOB) error and accuracy. In addition, in the RF, the im-portance of the variables in terms of accuracy reduction (AR) and Gini index reduction (GI) was determined. Results: Overall mortality in the ICU was 25.8%. Model performance was similar, with AUC = 76% for GLM, and AUC = 75.6% for RF. GLM identified 17 independent risk factors, while RF identified 19 for AR and 23 for GI. Thirteen variables were found to be important in both models. Laboratory variables such as procalcitonin, white blood cells, lactate, or D-dimer levels were not significant in GLM but were significant in RF. On the contrary, acute kidney injury and the presence of Acinetobacter spp. were important variables in the GLM but not in the RF. Conclusions: Although the performance of linear and non-linear models was similar, different risk factors were determined, depending on the model used. This alerts clinicians to the limitations and usefulness of studies limited to a single type of model. Full article

Background: The prevalence of chronic conditions that increase the risk of influenza complications is high among individuals aged ≥50 years, and evidence suggests age-related changes in immune responses to vaccines begin to decline at this age. Persons aged 50–59 years have high rates of influenza infections and are also the most likely age group to be employed. Thus, the burden of influenza is high in this age group. Methods: We investigated the cost-effectiveness of vaccination with an adjuvanted quadrivalent influenza vaccine (aQIV) in a Spanish population aged ≥50 years at high risk of influenza complications. Using a static decision-tree model specifically designed to analyze Spanish data, we calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for aQIV vs. egg-based QIV (QIVe; indicated for any age) and aQIV vs. high-dose QIV (HD-QIV; indicated for persons aged ≥60 years) from payer and societal perspectives. We compared ICERs against a willingness-to-pay threshold of EUR 25,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. The impact of input uncertainty on ICER was evaluated through a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and a one-way deterministic sensitivity analysis (DSA). Results: The total incremental cost of vaccination with aQIV was EUR –86,591,967.67, which was associated with gains of 241.02 in QALY (EUR –359,268.05 per QALY gained) and 318.04 in life years (EUR −272,271.37 per life year gain). Compared with the willingness-to-pay threshold of EUR 25,000 per QALY gained, aQIV was the most cost-effective influenza vaccine relative to the combination of QIVe or HD-QIV. These findings were supported by PSA and DSA analyses. Conclusions: In the model, aQIV dominated QIVe and HD-QIV, demonstrating that aQIV use would be cost-saving for persons aged ≥50 years who are at high risk of influenza complications. Full article

(1) Background: To describe hospitalizations due to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection among children and elderly patients with asthma. (2) Methods: We used a nationwide discharge database to select patients with asthma aged 0 to 15 years and ≥65 years admitted to Spanish hospitals from 2016 to 2022. (3) Results: We identified 49,086 children and 471,947 elderly patients hospitalized with asthma (3.52% and 0.51%, respectively, with RSV). The proportion of RSV increased over time in children with asthma (from 1.44% to 7.4%, p < 0.001) and in elderly individuals (from 0.17% to 1.01%, p < 0.001). Among children with RSV infection, the presence of influenza (OR 3.65; 95% CI 1.46–9.1) and pneumonia (OR 1.85; 95% CI 1.02–3.55) increased the risk of poor outcome. The presence of RSV was associated with severity in these patients, defined by use of mechanical ventilation and/or admission to the intensive care unit (OR 1.44; 95% CI 1.11–1.86). In elderly patients with RSV infection, older age, congestive heart failure, COVID-19, and pneumonia increased the risk of in-hospital mortality (IHM). However, RSV infection was not associated with IHM (OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.68–1.15) in these patients. (4) Conclusion: Our results highlight the impact of RSV infection in children and elderly patients hospitalized with asthma. Strategies to improve surveillance, prophylaxis, and management of RSV infection should be evaluated. Full article

Background: Influenza is a contagious respiratory illness responsible for seasonal epidemics and with potential to cause pandemics. The decline in influenza-related studies published since 2018 resulted in data gaps, particularly in emerging markets. Methods: This systematic review searched for studies in six databases and gray literature sources to define the clinical burden of influenza and influenza-like illness (ILIs) and their associated sequelae among humans across emerging markets. Eligible studies were published in English, Spanish, or Chinese between January 2018 and September 2023 and conducted in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. Results: In total, 256 articles were included, mostly on lab-confirmed influenza infections (n = 218). Incidences of lab-confirmed influenza cases in Asia (range 540–1279 cases/100,000 persons) and Sub-Saharan Africa (range 34,100–47,800 cases/100,000 persons) were higher compared to Latin America (range 0.7–112 cases/100,000 persons) and the Middle East and North Africa (range 0.1–10 cases/100,000 persons). Proportions of lab-confirmed influenza cases and influenza-associated outcomes (i.e., hospitalization, ICU admission and death) varied widely across regions. Temporal variation in influenza trend was observed before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions: In conclusion, influenza causes significant disease burden in emerging markets. Robust large real-world studies using a similar methodology are needed to have more accurate estimates and compare studies within age groups and regions. Continuous monitoring of influenza epidemiology is important to inform vaccine programs in emerging markets with heavy influenza disease burden. Full article

Social media plays a crucial role in health information dissemination, yet it also raises concerns about misinformation. This study examines the role of Spanish health centers in promoting influenza vaccination on social networks, particularly X (formerly Twitter), during the 2023–2024 campaign. An observational, retrospective study analyzed the activity of 832 Spanish health centers on X. Data collection focused on the existence of official accounts, follower engagement and the nature of messages posted. Metrics were obtained using X Analytics, and statistical analysis was performed using JAMOVI v2.4 software. Of the 832 centers, 607 had readable X accounts. Collective accounts were more prevalent (351) than individual ones (239). Collective accounts had significantly more followers and posts but showed less engagement compared to individual accounts. The most followed accounts belonged to public entities, like the Community of Madrid and private organizations, such as Sanitas. An analysis of the vaccination campaign revealed that most posts had a political focus with limited health information, resulting in minimal interaction with the public. As a conclusion, the study highlights the fragmented nature of health communication through social networks in Spain. Despite the higher visibility of collective accounts, their engagement with the public is low, often due to the political nature of posts. A unified national strategy is essential for enhancing public health communication, focusing on interactive and relevant content. Full article

Background: Bacterial/fungal coinfections (COIs) are associated with antibiotic overuse, poor outcomes such as prolonged ICU stay, and increased mortality. Our aim was to develop machine learning-based predictive models to identify respiratory bacterial or fungal coinfections upon ICU admission. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of two prospective multicenter cohort studies with confirmed influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 and COVID-19. Multiple logistic regression (MLR) and random forest (RF) were used to identify factors associated with BFC in the overall population and in each subgroup (influenza and COVID-19). The performance of these models was assessed by the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and out-of-bag (OOB) methods for MLR and RF, respectively. Results: Of the 8902 patients, 41.6% had influenza and 58.4% had SARS-CoV-2 infection. The median age was 60 years, 66% were male, and the crude ICU mortality was 25%. BFC was observed in 14.2% of patients. Overall, the predictive models showed modest performances, with an AUC of 0.68 (MLR) and OOB 36.9% (RF). Specific models did not show improved performance. However, age, procalcitonin, CRP, APACHE II, SOFA, and shock were factors associated with BFC in most models. Conclusions: Machine learning models do not adequately predict the presence of co-infection in critically ill patients with pandemic virus infection. However, the presence of factors such as advanced age, elevated procalcitonin or CPR, and high severity of illness should alert clinicians to the need to rule out this complication on admission to the ICU. Full article

Background/Objectives: The experience of the COVID-19 pandemic has turned the spotlight on the importance of public health measures and disease prevention. Despite this, the acceptance of influenza vaccination has remained low in most countries (and far from the 75% target set by the World Health Organization). The objective of this study has been to investigate how attitudes and behaviors regarding influenza vaccination in the Spanish adult population have changed over the last three years (from 2021 to 2024) in order to analyze trends in influenza vaccination. Methods: To this end, a cross-sectional study was conducted through 2206 telephone interviews, and the results were compared with those obtained in previous campaigns. Results: The findings indicate a significant decline in overall vaccination intent. Healthcare professionals remain the most influential factor in encouraging vaccination, yet there is a notable increase in the lack of vaccine recommendations, contributing to the decision not to vaccinate. This study also reveals low awareness of the influenza vaccine campaign, emphasizing the need for improved public health communication. Conclusions: To counteract these trends, this study recommends intensifying awareness campaigns, strengthening the role of healthcare providers in vaccine advocacy, and tailoring communication strategies. These efforts are crucial to enhancing vaccination coverage and protecting vulnerable populations against influenza. Full article

The lack of a universally accepted definition of a pandemic hinders a comprehensive understanding of and effective response to these global health crises. Current definitions often lack quantitative criteria, rendering them vague and limiting their utility. Here, we propose a refined definition that considers the likelihood of susceptible individuals contracting an infectious disease that culminates in widespread global transmission, increased morbidity and mortality, and profound societal, economic, and political consequences. Applying this definition retrospectively, we identify 22 pandemics that occurred between 165 and 2024 AD and were caused by a variety of diseases, including smallpox (Antonine and American), plague (Justinian, Black Death, and Third Plague), cholera (seven pandemics), influenza (two Russian, Spanish, Asian, Hong Kong, and swine), AIDS, and coronaviruses (SARS, MERS, and COVID-19). This work presents a comprehensive analysis of past pandemics caused by both emerging and re-emerging pathogens, along with their epidemiological characteristics, societal impact, and evolution of public health responses. We also highlight the need for proactive measures to reduce the risk of future pandemics. These strategies include prioritizing surveillance of emerging zoonotic pathogens, conserving biodiversity to counter wildlife trafficking, and minimizing the potential for zoonotic spillover events. In addition, interventions such as promoting alternative protein sources, enforcing the closure of live animal markets in biodiversity-rich regions, and fostering global collaboration among diverse stakeholders are critical to preventing future pandemics. Crucially, improving wildlife surveillance systems will require the concerted efforts of local, national and international entities, including laboratories, field researchers, wildlife conservationists, government agencies and other stakeholders. By fostering collaborative networks and establishing robust biorepositories, we can strengthen our collective capacity to detect, monitor, and mitigate the emergence and transmission of zoonotic pathogens. Full article

The high burden of influenza in children has driven numerous countries towards universal vaccination of healthy children from 6 to 59 months of age. The Region of Murcia was one of the pioneer Spanish regions to conduct a universal vaccination campaign and to use live-attenuated intranasal vaccine (LAIV) if age appropriate. This study aims to evaluate the parents’ likeliness to vaccinate their children and to compare the profile of vaccinating/non-vaccinating parents. This study was designed as a prospective, real-world, survey-based data collection in the 2022–2023 season campaign. This study’s sample was selected from those children whose information was available in the local Public Health System databases PERSAN and VACUSAN. Children received LAIV or intramuscular vaccine (IIV) depending on their age as per standard practice. The parent self-vaccination/intention to vaccinate themselves in this campaign (OR = 4.75), the compliance with the official vaccination schedule (OR = 3.41), and the prescription of antibiotics more than twice in the previous year (OR = 2.24) were strongly associated with children’s vaccination. Overall, vaccinating parents were very satisfied with the vaccine (IIV: 67.5% vs. LAIV: 68.8%, p = 0.320), and most parents would rather have their children vaccinated with LAIV for the next campaign (43.0%). The main reasons for vaccinating were to protect the child (LAIV: 85.9% vs. IIV: 89.4%), and the predominant reasons for not vaccinating were a lack of healthcare professional recommendation (30.9%), and lack of information about the vaccination campaign (21.5%) and the vaccine itself (21.0%). The clinical context of parents and children was determinant in decision making, which was also influenced by the presence or absence of recommendation by healthcare professionals. Parents were generally very satisfied with the vaccine and showed their preference towards LAIV for future campaigns. Full article

Seasonal influenza is an acute respiratory infection caused by the influenza virus which constitutes a significant public health issue associated with high morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate changes in attitudes, perceptions, and practices regarding influenza vaccination in the Spanish adult population during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as their vaccination intentions, with special attention paid to those over 65 years old and in high-risk groups. To this end, a cross-sectional study was conducted through 2219 telephone interviews, and the results were compared with results obtained a year earlier. Regarding the reasons for deciding to get vaccinated in the 2022/23 season, a significant increase was observed in vaccine confidence (36.7% vs. 42.8%), social responsibility (32.5% vs. 43.8%), and in awareness of the importance of vaccination due to COVID-19 (21.7% vs. 25.4%). Advanced age (OR 2.8, 95% CI 2.0–3.9), belonging to high-risk groups (OR 2.7, 95% CI 2.0–3.7), and prior vaccination (OR 25.3, 95% CI 19.5–32.7) emerged as significant predictors for the intent to receive the influenza vaccine in the 2022/23 season. Continuously observing shifts in perceptions and behaviors related to influenza immunization is crucial to pinpoint factors that may influence the willingness to receive the vaccine and, in this way, design public health strategies that achieve a greater acceptance of it. Full article

Background: Vaccination is considered the most effective measure for preventing influenza and its complications. The influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) varies annually due to the evolution of influenza viruses and the update of vaccine composition. Assessing the IVE is crucial to facilitate decision making in public health policies. Aim: to estimate the IVE against hospitalization and its determinants in the 2021/22 season in a Spanish tertiary hospital. Methods: We conducted a prospective observational test-negative design study within the Development of Robust and Innovative Vaccine Effectiveness (DRIVE) project. Hospitalized patients with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) and an available influenza reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) were selected and classified as cases (positive influenza RT-PCR) or controls (negative influenza RT-PCR). Vaccine information was obtained from electronic clinical records shared by public healthcare providers. Information about potential confounders was obtained from hospital clinical registries. The IVE was calculated by subtracting the ratio of the odds of vaccination in cases and controls from one, as a percentage (IVE = (1 − odds ratio (OR)) × 100). Multivariate IVE estimates were calculated using logistic regression. Results: In total, 260 severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) were identified, of which 34 were positive for influenza, and all were subtype A(H3N2). Fifty-three percent were vaccinated. Adjusted IVE against hospitalization was 26.4% (95% CI −69% to 112%). IVE determinants could not be explored due to sample size limitations. Conclusion: Our data revealed non-significant moderate vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization for the 2021/2022 season. Full article

In 1918 many countries, but not Spain, were fighting World War I. Spanish press could report about the diffusion and severity of a new infection without censorship for the first-time, so that this pandemic is commonly defined as “Spanish flu”, even though Spain was not its place of origin. “Spanish flu” was one of the deadliest pandemics in history and has been frequently compared with the coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 pandemic. These pandemics share similarities, being both caused by highly variable and transmissible respiratory RNA viruses, and diversity, represented by diagnostics, therapies, and especially vaccines, which were made rapidly available for COVID-19, but not for “Spanish flu”. Most comparison studies have been carried out in the first period of COVID-19, when these resources were either not yet available or their use had not long started. Conversely, we wanted to analyze the role that the advanced diagnostics, anti-viral agents, including monoclonal antibodies, and innovative COVID-19 vaccines, may have had in the pandemic containment. Early diagnosis, therapies, and anti-COVID-19 vaccines have markedly reduced the pandemic severity and mortality, thus preventing the collapse of the public health services. However, their influence on the reduction of infections and re-infections, thus on the transition from pandemic to endemic condition, appears to be of minor relevance. The high viral variability of influenza and coronavirus may probably be contained by the development of universal vaccines, which are not easy to be obtained. The only effective weapon still remains the disease prevention, to be achieved with the reduction of promiscuity between the animal reservoirs of these zoonotic diseases and humans. Full article

Annual influenza vaccination is the main strategy to reduce the burden of seasonal influenza epidemics and is recommended for the elderly in most countries with influenza vaccination strategies, with the main objective of preventing hospitalizations and mortality associated with seasonal influenza in this age group. Studies from different countries have estimated the benefits of seasonal influenza vaccination programs in the elderly, preventing a considerable number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths every year. A study measured the number of medically attended confirmed influenza cases in primary care that are prevented annually by vaccination in the population aged 65 and older in Spain, the Netherlands and Portugal, but estimates of the impact of the national influenza vaccination program in the prevention of severe disease in Spain are lacking. The two objectives of this study were to estimate the burden of severe influenza disease in the Spanish population and to measure the impact of influenza vaccination in the prevention of these outcomes in the population aged 65 years and older. Using influenza surveillance systems put in place before the COVID-19 pandemic, we conducted a retrospective observational study to estimate the burden of hospitalizations and ICU admissions in Spain between 2017–18 and 2019–20, by season and age group. Burden estimates for the 65+ group, combined with vaccine effectiveness (VE) and vaccination coverage (VC) data, were used as input data in an ecological, observational study to estimate the impact of the influenza vaccination program on the elderly. We found a higher burden of severe influenza disease in seasons 2017–18 and 2018–19, with A(H3N2) circulation, and in the youngest and oldest age groups. In those aged 65 and older, we estimated an average of 9900 influenza hospitalizations and 1541 ICU admissions averted by vaccination each year. Seasonal influenza vaccination was able to prevent between 11 and 26% influenza hospitalizations and around 40% ICU admissions in the elderly in the three pre-pandemic seasons. In conclusion, our study complements previous analyses in the primary care setting in Spain and demonstrates the benefits of the annual influenza vaccination program in the prevention of severe influenza disease in the elderly, even in seasons with moderate VE. Full article

Pandemics in the last two centuries have been initiated by causal pathogens that include Severe Acute Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and Influenza (e.g., the H1N1 pandemic of 2009). The latter is considered to have initiated two prior pandemics in 1918 and 1977, known as the “Spanish Flu” and “Russian Flu”, respectively. Here, we discuss other emerging infections that could be potential public health threats. These include Henipaviruses, which are members of the family Paramyxoviridae that infect bats and other mammals. Paramyxoviridae also include Parainfluenza and Mumps viruses (Rubulavirus) but also Respiratory Syncytial virus (RSV) (Pneumovirus). Additionally included is the Measles virus, recorded for the first time in writing in 1657 (Morbillivirus). In humans and animals, these may cause encephalitis or respiratory diseases. Recently, two more highly pathogenic class 4 viral pathogens emerged. These were named Hendra Henipavirus (HeV) and Nipah Henipavirus (NiV). Nipah virus is a negative-sense single-stranded ribonucleic acid ((−) ssRNA) virus within the family Paramyxoviridae. There are currently no known therapeutics or treatment regimens licensed as effective in humans, with development ongoing. Nipah virus is a lethal emerging zoonotic disease that has been neglected since its characterization in 1999 until recently. Nipah virus infection occurs predominantly in isolated regions of Malaysia, Bangladesh, and India in small outbreaks. Factors that affect animal–human disease transmission include viral mutation, direct contact, amplifying reservoirs, food, close contact, and host cell mutations. There are different strains of Nipah virus, and small outbreaks in humans limit known research and surveillance on this pathogen. The small size of outbreaks in rural areas is suggestive of low transmission. Person-to-person transmission may occur. The role that zoonotic (animal–human) or host immune system cellular factors perform therefore requires analysis. Mortality estimates for NiV infection range from 38–100% (averaging 58.2% in early 2019). It is therefore critical to outline treatments and prevention for NiV disease in future research. The final stages of the disease severely affect key organ systems, particularly the central nervous system and brain. Therefore, here we clarify the pathogenesis, biochemical mechanisms, and all research in context with known immune cell proteins and genetic factors. Full article