Search Results (127)

Forest drought monitoring tools are crucial for managing tree water stress and enhancing ecosystem resilience. The Forest Drought Response Index (ForDRI) was developed to monitor drought conditions in forested areas across the contiguous United States (CONUS), integrating vegetation health, climate data, groundwater, and soil moisture content. This study evaluated ForDRI using Pearson correlations with the Bowen Ratio (BR) at 24 AmeriFlux sites and Spearman correlations with the Tree-Ring Growth Index (TRSGI) at 135 sites, along with feedback from 58 stakeholders. CONUS was divided into four forest subgroups: (1) the West/Pacific Northwest, (2) Rocky Mountains/Southwest, (3) East/Northeast, and (4) South/Central/Southeast Forest regions. Strong positive ForDRI-TRSGI correlations (ρ > 0.7, p < 0.05) were observed in the western regions, where drought significantly impacts growth, while moderate alignment with BR (R = 0.35–0.65, p < 0.05) was noted. In contrast, correlations in Eastern and Southern forests were weak to moderate (ρ = 0.4–0.6 for TRSGI and R = 0.1–0.3 for BR). Stakeholders’ feedback indicated that ForDRI realistically maps historical drought years and recent trends, though suggestions for improvements, including trend maps and enhanced visualizations, were made. ForDRI is a valuable complementary tool for monitoring forest droughts and informing management decisions. Full article

The Japanese sardine (Sardinops sagax), a key economic species in the Northwest Pacific Ocean (NWPO), has shown significant increases in both population abundance and catch volume over the past decade. To understand its spatiotemporal dynamics under climate change, this study analyzed light purse seine fishery data (2014–2021) from the NWPO. The results showed that the primary fishing season spans March to December, with peak catches concentrated in 40–43° N, 149–155° E. Annual catches grew steadily, accelerating notably in 2021. The fishing grounds’ center shifted northeastward annually and seasonally (southwest-to-northeast trajectory), driven by directional aggregation. Spatial clustering with global positive autocorrelation was observed, weakening as distance thresholds increased. Resource hotspots migrated northeast, narrowing from 40–42° N (2016) to 42–44° N (2017–2021), while coldspots showed complementary fluctuations. Generalized additive model (GAM) analysis revealed that the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of Japanese sardine in the high seas of the NWPO was governed by temporal–spatial drivers and multivariate environmental determinants. Analytical findings substantiate the significant climate-driven impacts on the spatiotemporal distribution and population dynamics of Japanese sardine. The non-stationary interannual and seasonal patterns of fishing grounds highlight the need for adaptive management strategies. Full article

The southwestern region of China is tectonically situated within the Tethyan tectonic domain, with the eastern part comprising the Upper Yangtze Block, while the western orogenic belt forms the main part of the Tibetan Plateau. This belt was formed by the subduction of the Paleo-Tethys Ocean and subsequent arc-continent collision, and was later further modified by the India-Asia collision, resulting in complex geological structures such as the Hengduan Mountains. The lithostratigraphy in this region can be divided into six independent units. In terms of mineralization, the area encompasses two first-order metallogenic domains: the Tethyan-Himalayan and the Circum-Pacific. This study synthesizes extensive previous research to systematically investigate representative rare earth element (REE) deposits (e.g., Muchuan and Maoniuping in Sichuan; the Xinhua deposit in Guizhou; the Lincang deposit in Yunnan). Through comparative analysis of regional tectonic-metallogenic settings, we demonstrate that REE distribution in Southwest China is fundamentally controlled by Tethyan tectonic evolution: sedimentary-weathered types dominate in the east, while orogenic magmatism-related types prevail in the west. These findings reveal critical metallogenic patterns, establishing a foundation for cross-regional resource assessment and exploration targeting. The region hosts 32 identified REE occurrences, predominantly light REE (LREE)-enriched, genetically classified as endogenic, exogenic, and metamorphic deposit types. Metallogenic epochs include Precambrian, Paleozoic, and Mesozoic-Cenozoic periods, with the latter being most REE-relevant. Six prospective exploration areas are delineated: Mianning-Dechang, Weining-Zhijin, Long’an, Simao Adebo, Shuiqiao, and the eastern Yunnan-western Guizhou sedimentary-type district. Notably, the discovery of paleo-weathering crust-sedimentary-clay type REE deposits in eastern Yunnan-western Guizhou significantly expands regional exploration potential, opening new avenues for future resource development. Full article

This study evaluates the ability of three machine learning methods—decision tree classifier (DTC), random forest classifier (RFC), and XGBoost classifier (XGBC)—to classify and predict tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) and non-RI over the Southwest Pacific Ocean basin (SWPO) from 1982 to 2023. Among the 324 TCs within the domain, 81 were identified as RI TCs, exhibiting a 24-h intensity increase of at least 15 ms⁻¹ at least once in their lifetime. Environmental variables used for the input matrix are extracted from the nearest grid cell corresponding to each RI and non-RI event’s geographic location and time of occurrence. Additionally, the geographic location of each event and its initial intensity positions (24-h prior) are also included in the model. The XGBC, with 10-fold cross-validation, became the optimum classifier by achieving the highest classification accuracy, as well as the lowest probability of false detection and the highest AUC score on the unseen data. The model identified the longitude of RI and non-RI events, initial intensity latitude, extent of initial intensity, and relative humidity at 850 hPa as the most important variables in the classification decision. This study will advance storm preparedness strategies for the SWPO nations through correctly predicting RI-TCs and prioritizing early prediction of contributing environmental variables. Full article

The large pelagic species play an important role in transferring energy in vast distant marine ecoregions. Results obtained report on extraordinary findings of important commercial species in southeast–south Brazilian waters, including the Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii and the Pacific bluefin tuna Thunnus orientalis, an endemic species from the Pacific Ocean. These specimens were identified within the genomic description of 10 individuals randomly selected from the catch to evaluate the catch composition of pelagic longline fisheries off Brazilian waters. Most of the records were from T. maccoyii (6), followed by the Bigeye tuna T. obesus (2), Yellowfin tuna T. albacares (1), and T. orientalis (1). Yellowfin and Bigeye tuna are expected to be captured in the vicinity of the longline fishing areas. However, the unlikely presence of the cold-water T. maccoyii and the warm-water T. orientalis suggests a long migration from common species ranges that could be influenced by climate change. These results imply a readjustment of spatial management structures for these species. Full article

To study the long-term hydroclimate variability in the Satluj Basin, streamflow data was reconstructed using tree-ring width datasets from multiple taxa available from the Kullu Valley, western (Indian) Himalaya. Five ring-width tree-ring chronologies of three conifer tree taxa (Abies pindrow, Cedrus deodara, and Pinus roxburghii) significantly correlate with the streamflow during the southwest monsoon season. Based on this correlation, a 228-year (1787–2014 CE) June–August streamflow was reconstructed using average tree-ring chronology. The reconstruction accounts for 34.5% of the total variance of the gauge records from 1964 to 2011 CE. The annual reconstruction showed above-average high-flow periods during the periods 1808–1811, 1823–1827, 1833–1837, 1860–1863, 1876–1881, and 1986–1992 CE and below-average low-flow periods during the periods 1792–1798, 1817–1820, 1828–1832, 1853–1856, 1867–1870, 1944–1947, and 1959–1962 CE. Furthermore, a period of prominent prolonged below-average discharge in the low-frequency streamflow record is indicated during the periods 1788–1807, 1999–2011, 1966–1977, 1939–1949, and 1854–1864. The low-flow (dry periods) observed in the present streamflow reconstruction are coherent with other hydroclimatic reconstructions carried out from the local (Himachal Pradesh and Kashmir Himalaya) to the regional (Hindukush mountain range in Pakistan) level. The reconstruction shows occurrences of short (2.0–2.8 and 4.8–8.3 years) to medium (12.5 years) periodicities, which signify their teleconnections with large-scale climate variations such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Full article

Malaria, a climate-sensitive mosquito-borne disease, is widespread in tropical and subtropical regions, and its elimination is a global health priority. Malaria is endemic to Vanuatu, where elimination campaigns have been implemented with varied success. In this study, climate variables were assessed for their correlation with national malaria cases from 2014 to 2023 and used to develop a proof-of-concept model for estimating malaria incidence in Vanuatu. Maximum, minimum, and median temperatures; diurnal temperature variation; median temperature during the 18:00–21:00 mosquito biting period (VUT); median humidity; and precipitation (total and anomaly) were evaluated as predictors at different time lags. It was found that maximum temperature had the strongest correlation with malaria cases and produced the best-performing linear regression model, where malaria cases increased by approximately 43 cases for every degree (°C) increase in monthly maximum temperature. This aligns with similar findings from climate–malaria studies in the Southwest Pacific, where temperature tends to stimulate the development of both Anopheles farauti and Plasmodium vivax, increasing transmission probability. A Bayesian model using maximum temperature and total precipitation at a two-month time lag was more effective in predicting malaria incidence than using maximum temperature or precipitation alone. A Bayesian approach was preferred due to its flexibility with varied data types and prior information about malaria dynamics. This model for predicting malaria incidence in Vanuatu can be adapted to smaller regions or other malaria-affected areas, supporting malaria early warning and preparedness for climate-related health challenges. Full article

This study investigates the climatic background of winter PM2.5 (particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or smaller) concentrations in Hubei Province (DJF-HBPMC) and evaluates its predictability. The key findings are as follows: (1) Elevated DJF-HBPMC levels are associated with an upper-tropospheric northerly anomaly, a deepened southern branch trough (SBT) that facilitates southwesterly flow into central and eastern China, and a weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), which reduces the frequency and intensity of cold air intrusions. Near-surface easterlies and an anomalous anticyclonic circulation over Hubei contribute to reduced precipitation, thereby decreasing the dispersion of pollutants and leading to higher PM2.5 concentrations. (2) Significant correlations are observed between DJF-HBPMC and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in specific oceanic regions, as well as sea-ice concentration (SIC) anomalies near the Antarctic. For the atmospheric pattern anomalies over Hubei Province, the North Atlantic SST mode (NA) promotes the southward intrusion of northerlies, while the Northwest Pacific (NWP) and South Pacific (SPC) SST modes enhance wet deposition through increased precipitation, showing a negative correlation with DJF-HBPMC. Conversely, the South Atlantic–Southwest Indian Ocean SST mode (SAIO) and the Ross Sea sea-ice mode (ROSIC) contribute to more stable local atmospheric conditions, which reduce pollutant dispersion and increase PM2.5 accumulation, thus exhibiting a positive correlation with DJF-HBPMC. (3) A multiple linear regression (MLR) model, using selected seasonal SST and SIC indices, effectively predicts DJF-HBPMC, showing high correlation coefficients (CORR) and anomaly sign consistency rates (AS) compared to real-time values. (4) In daily HBPMC forecasting, both the Reversed Unrestricted Mixed-Frequency Data Sampling (RU-MIDAS) and Reversed Restricted-MIDAS (RR-MIDAS) models exhibit superior skill using only monthly precipitation, and the RR-MIDAS offers the best balance in prediction accuracy and trend consistency when incorporating monthly precipitation along with monthly SST and SIC indices. Full article

Rainstorms and blizzards are common extreme weather events occurring in the eastern Tibet region. Their complex dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms present challenges for regional meteorological research and forecasting. Based on station observation data and ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis datasets, a diagnostic analysis of the heavy rain and snow event in eastern Tibet from 24 to 27 October 2022 was conducted. The results indicate that (1) the influence of the cloud systems surrounding the Bay of Bengal storm “Sitrang” was a significant factor contributing to the occurrence of this heavy rain and snow weather. (2) Sustained stability of the southern branch trough and the western Pacific subtropical high favored the establishment and maintenance of the mid-level jet stream ahead of the storm. Storm “Sitrang” transported warm and moist air to eastern Tibet through the southwest mid-level jet stream, providing favorable moisture, dynamic, and thermal conditions for the heavy rain and snow. (3) Most importantly, symmetrical instability generated by the inclined motion of the storm’s warm and moist air emerged as the decisive mechanism driving the occurrence and development of the heavy rain and snow. Full article

This study employed machine learning, specifically deep neural networks (DNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, to build a model for estimating acid rain pH levels. The Yangming monitoring station in the Taipei metropolitan area was selected as the research site. Based on pollutant sources from the air mass back trajectory (AMBT) of the HY-SPLIT model, three possible source regions were identified: mainland China and the Japanese islands under the northeast monsoon system (Region C), the Philippines and Indochina Peninsula under the southwest monsoon system (Region R), and the Pacific Ocean under the western Pacific high-pressure system (Region S). Data for these regions were used to build the ANN_AMBT model. The AMBT model provided air mass origin information at different altitudes, leading to models for 50 m, 500 m, and 1000 m (ANN_AMBT_50m, ANN_AMBT_500m, and ANN_AMBT_1000m, respectively). Additionally, an ANN model based only on ground station attributes, without AMBT information (LSTM_No_AMBT), served as a benchmark. Due to the northeast monsoon, Taiwan is prone to severe acid rain events in winter, often carrying external pollutants. Results from these events showed that the LSTM_AMBT_500m model achieved the highest percentages of model improvement rate (MIR), ranging from 17.96% to 36.53% (average 27.92%), followed by the LSTM_AMBT_50m model (MIR 12.94% to 26.42%, average 21.70%), while the LSTM_AMBT_1000m model had the lowest MIR (2.64% to 12.26%, average 6.79%). These findings indicate that the LSTM_AMBT_50m and LSTM_AMBT_500m models better capture pH variation trends, reduce prediction errors, and improve accuracy in forecasting pH levels during severe acid rain events. Full article

The Han Dynasty Ruins in Chengcun Village of Wuyishan City, also known as the Ruins of the Imperial City of the Minyue Kingdom, are located on the hilly slope southwest of Chengcun Village, Xingtian Town, Wuyishan City, Fujian Province, China. These are ruins of a Han Dynasty city. Wuyi Mountain’s World Cultural and Natural Heritage Committee declared it a World Heritage Site in 1999. It is also the only imperial city site from the Han Dynasty that has been declared a World Heritage Site in China, and it is the most well-preserved large-scale imperial city site from the Middle Ages on the Pacific Rim. This study used comprehensive archaeological techniques, including archaeological excavation work, site information recording, erosion situation analysis, and geological surveys, to design and implement protective engineering projects in response to existing problems. In this study, the researchers conducted a geological survey of the study area to analyze the topography, rock and soil distribution characteristics, groundwater storage conditions, and geotechnical engineering conditions. At the same time, they explored the preservation status of the site, including the preservation status of the East Gate and the East City Wall, and they analyzed the causes of damage. Finally, the investigation and analysis results guided the design of a site display project, which included safeguarding against collapse and erosion, treating trees and shrubs, and designing the exhibition project for the East Gate. This study provides some practical reference for the excavation and archaeological work of the royal city in the surrounding areas. At the same time, in terms of the technical process of the project, it is also hoped to provide ideas for international ancient city excavation, display, and protection projects. Full article

This study employed the new generation Taiwan global forecast system (TGFS) to focus on its performance in forecasting the tracks of western North Pacific typhoons during 2022–2023. TGFS demonstrated better forecasting performance in typhoon track compared to central weather administration (CWA) GFS. For forecasts with large track errors by TGFS at the 120th h, it was found that most of them originated during the early stages of typhoon development when the typhoons were of mild intensity. The tracks deviated predominantly towards the northeast and occasionally towards the southwest, which were speculated to be due to inadequate environmental steering guidance resulting from the failure to capture synoptic environmental features. The tracks could be corrected by replacing the original new simplified Arakawa–Schubert (NSAS) scheme with the new Tiedtke (NTDK) scheme to change the synoptic environmental field, not only for Typhoon Khanun, which occurred in the typhoon season of 2023, but also for Typhoon Bolaven, which occurred after the typhoon season, in October 2023, under atypical circulation characteristics over the western Pacific. The diagnosis of vorticity budget primarily analyzed the periods where divergence in typhoon tracks between control (CTRL) and NTDK experiments occurred. The different synoptic environmental fields in the NTDK experiment affected the wavenumber-1 vorticity distribution in the horizontal advection term, thereby enhancing the accuracy of typhoon translation velocity forecasts. This preliminary study suggests that utilizing the NTDK scheme might improve the forecasting skill of TGFS for typhoon tracks. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of NTDK on typhoon tracks, further examination for more typhoons is still in need. Full article

Calcretes are indurated terrestrial carbonates that are widespread in arid and semi-arid settings and serve as important archives of present and past environments. Here, we use geochemical tools to explore the nature and origin of calcretes documented from tropical Niue Island in the Southwest Pacific. The study recognizes two types of calcretes that differ in their mineral assemblage, microfabrics, elemental chemistry, and carbon and oxygen isotopes. The calcretes common in the paleo-lagoon soils consist of 90% low-Mg calcite and ~10% highly weathered Mg-Al silicates. These pedogenic calcretes formed in the soil profiles within the vadose zone bear the following distinctions: (i) Fe/Al ratio of 0.75, identical to the ratio in soils (Fe/Al = 0.76 ± 0.5), substantiating the link between the calcretes and soils; (ii) presence of rhizoliths, root voids, micritic nodules, and clasts, which are consistent with a pedogenic calcrete fabric; and (iii) ¹³C and ¹⁸O depletions of −10.6‰ and −5.3‰, respectively, which are compatible with carbon sources from microbial and root respiration, as well as formation in oxygen isotope equilibrium with vadose waters. Unlike the pedogenic calcrete, a rare calcrete from the coastal terrace contains an exceptionally rare hydrotalcite [Mg₆Al₂(CO₃)(OH)₁₆(H₂O)₄] mineral (65%) coated by microbial films. We contend that the hydrotalcite-rich calcrete was deposited through interaction of dolomite with seawater, similar to the method of producing hydrotalcite in the laboratory. ¹³C and ¹⁸O enrichments of 0.8 to 1.7‰ and −1.0 to −1.6‰, respectively, are in agreement with (i) mixed carbon sources consisting of microbial CO₂ degassing, seawater HCO₃, and dolomite dissolution, and (ii) oxygen isotope equilibration with seawater-derived fluid. Full article

This study analyzed the change in and mechanisms of summer extreme precipitation in Southwest China (SWC) during 1979–2021. The trend in summer extreme precipitation showed an evident interdecadal mutation in the late 1990s; it decreased during 1979–1996 (P1) and increased during 1997–2021 (P2). It is observed that the moisture flux in SWC is more abundant in P2 than in P1. The South Asian high (SAH) and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) contributed to the change in extreme precipitation in SWC. Both the SAH and WPSH weakened in 1979–1996 and enhanced in 1997–2021. The enhanced SAH and WPSH are conducive to forming updrafts in SWC and transporting moisture from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and South China Sea (SCS) into SWC. Further research found that the causes for the interdecadal variation of the SAH and WPSH are the anomalies of sensible heat flux (SSH) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical western Pacific–Indian Oceans. The SSH is the main energy source of troposphere air and an essential component of the surface heat balance because it can maintain the intensity and influence range of the SAH. The increasing SST stimulated strong upward motion and thus maintained the strength of the WPSH, which also made the WPSH extend westward into mainland China. This study also summarized local human adaptation to climate change. The use of advanced science and technology to improve monitoring and forecasting ability is an important measure for human society to adapt to climate change. At the same time, increasing the participation of individuals and social organizations is also an indispensable way to increase human resilience to climate change. Full article

The thermal and dynamic effects of the special topography of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau have a significant impact on rainfall in China. Utilizing NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data alongside precipitation observations from 1936 monitoring stations across China spanning from 1966 to 2022, this study establishes a location index for the thermal low-pressure center situated over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Temporal variations in the location index and summer (July) precipitation patterns in China were studied. Over the past six decades, thermal low-pressure centers have been predominantly positioned near 90° E and 32.5° N within a geopotential height of 4360 gpm, with their distribution extending from east to west rather than from south to north. The longitudinal and latitudinal position indices showed the same linear trend, with a negative trend before the 21st century, and then began to turn positive. Mutation analysis highlights pronounced weakening mutations occurring in 1981 and 1973, with the longitudinal index transitioning from an interannual cycle of approximately 6–8 years, while the latitudinal index displays quasi-cyclic oscillations of 5 and 8 and 12–14 years. Strong negative correlations are evident between the location indices and precipitation along the southeastern edge of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and in southern China, contrasting with the positive correlations observed in the central-eastern plateau, northwest, north, and the Huang-Huai region of China. The center of the thermal low is located to the east and north, corresponding to the deeper surface thermal low in most areas east of China, and the stronger transport of warm and wet air from the southwest wind, leading to greater convergence of southwest wind and northwest wind in China’s northern region. The south of the Yangtze River is controlled by the strengthening West Pacific subtropical high and South Asia high, resulting in a significant decrease in precipitation, and the warm and humid air from the southwest on the west side of the West Pacific subtropical high is also transported to the north, increasing the precipitation in most parts of the north. Full article