Search Results (68)

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is becoming increasingly accessible as Arctic sea ice declines, motivating data-driven forecasts of seasonal navigability. We compiled a 13-year (2013–2025) monthly dataset of AMSR2 sea ice concentration (SIC) and ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis variables over the NSR corridor (68–80° N, 30–180° E) and benchmarked a hierarchy of forecasting models for 1-, 3-, and 6-month lead times. Baselines (climatology, persistence, anomaly persistence, SARIMA, ridge regression) were compared with compact deep learning architectures (LSTM, Transformer; 10,000–70,000 parameters) trained on 12-month sequences with anomaly targets and five-seed ensembles. Three findings emerge. First, the seasonal cycle explains 98.0% of the monthly SIC variance, so climatology alone yields RMSE = 4.56% and three-class navigability accuracy of 87.5%. Second, SARIMA, the compact LSTM ensemble, random forest, and MLP_small all yield small positive skill scores over climatology: SARIMA achieves the lowest 1-month RMSE (3.98%, skill score +0.239), while the compact LSTM ensemble shows positive skill at all horizons (mean skill score +0.038); however, the bootstrap confidence intervals overlap and these differences are not statistically distinguishable from climatology. Third, all skilful models converge to identical classification metrics (accuracy 0.875, macro-F1 0.78, κ = 0.76); McNemar tests and overlapping bootstrap confidence intervals show no statistically significant differences. Permutation importance confirms that AMSR2 ice-state features dominate, whereas the high raw correlations of ERA5 radiation variables collapse after detrending. These results indicate that compact statistical and deep learning models are equivalent for NSR seasonal navigability prediction and that honest baseline comparison is essential when seasonal cycles dominate. Full article

In the northern Norwegian North Sea, the Lower Paleogene post-rift succession constitutes an underexplored interval with considerable potential for stratigraphic petroleum plays. Nevertheless, predicting its subsurface prospectivity remains hindered by persistent uncertainties in facies architecture, depositional heterogeneity, and reservoir quality. To address these uncertainties, the present study integrates relative geologic time (RGT)-based seismic stratigraphic interpretation, spectral decomposition, sedimentary facies analysis, and litho-saturation assessment, primarily constrained by seismic and well-log datasets, to evaluate the Paleocene post-rift Lista Formation in the northern Norwegian North Sea. The results reveal the presence of Paleocene mass-transport deposit (MTD) complexes associated with axial lobe sandstones of submarine fan systems. These MTD complexes exhibit pronounced vertical and lateral facies transitions into low-density turbidites, debrites, and hemipelagic drapes, together forming an effective stratigraphic framework for hydrocarbon entrapment. Although the Lista submarine-fan sandstones are relatively thin, typically ranging from a few centimeters to decimeters in thickness, they display favorable reservoir characteristics. Litho-saturation analysis indicates preserved porosity and low water saturation (<20%), supporting their potential as effective hydrocarbon storage intervals. Distal fan-lobe sandstones, despite their limited thickness, show encouraging reservoir quality, whereas thicker low stand systems tract (LST) accumulations and time-equivalent carbonate mound complexes appear to have developed within more proximal structural domains. This proximal-to-distal facies organization reflects the dynamic interaction between tectonically inherited accommodation space and sediment-routing pathways during the early Paleocene. Overall, the findings highlight the significant petroleum prospectivity of the Paleocene post-rift succession in the northern Norwegian North Sea. The stratigraphic juxtaposition of sand-prone submarine-fan lobes against hemipelagic sealing intervals, combined with heterogeneity imposed by syn-rift structural inheritance, generates a highly favorable architecture for stratigraphic trapping. More broadly, the integrated workflow presented here enhances the predictive mapping of subtle stratigraphic traps within post-rift successions and provides a robust framework for reducing exploration uncertainty in analogous basins. Full article

Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are a promising near-zero-emission propulsion source for Northern Sea Route (NSR) vessels, but their yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) electrolyte and Ni-cermet anode are susceptible to thermomechanical degradation under repetitive start–stop thermal cycling. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian competing-risk framework built on a dual degradation model that decomposes area-specific resistance (ASR) growth into cycle-induced fatigue and time-dependent electrochemical aging and apply it across six NSR duty-cycle scenarios spanning f = 1–27 cycles/month. Posterior inference via the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) yields 17 estimated parameters meeting standard convergence criteria (R^ ≤ 1.01, ESS_bulk ≥ 479, zero divergent transitions). The analysis identifies a failure-mode transition at f ≈ 3–6 cycles/month: high-frequency routes are crack-dominated (S1a: 10/15 cells fail by crack within the 600-cycle window with 5/15 right-censored), whereas low-frequency routes are ASR-dominated (S3b: 100% ASR). Global sensitivity analysis indicates the time-dependent rate coefficient k_time as the primary remaining-useful-life driver (S_T = 0.37–0.46). Cycle-based maintenance thresholds span 160 cycles (S3b) to ≥600 cycles (S2b), bracketed by S1a (270 cycles, 10.0 months, crack-dominant) and S3a (480 cycles, 160 months, transition regime); qualitative consistency with published experimental data supports physical plausibility. Full article

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 28 February 2026 disrupted approximately 20 million barrels (bbl) per day of crude oil transit, constituting the largest supply shock in global oil market history. This study quantifies the resulting economic losses under three blockade-duration scenarios and evaluates the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as a partial mitigation mechanism through a novel framework integrating sustainable supply chain resilience (SSCR), the Triple Bottom Line (TBL), and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A 3 × 3 scenario matrix crossing three blockade durations with three NSR utilization levels estimates global and country-level impacts using data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Centre for High North Logistics (CHNL). Even under maximum feasible NSR utilization, net environmentally adjustment mitigation offsets only 1.1–3.6% of total global losses, demonstrating that the Northern Sea Route functions as marginal insurance rather than a viable substitute for Hormuz-dependent supply chains. Global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) losses range from USD 330 billion to USD 2.2 trillion, with South Korea (68–70% Middle East crude dependency) and Japan (approximately 95%) disproportionately affected. After TBL environmentally adjustment monetizing CO₂, black-carbon, and icebreaker costs, the NSR mitigates 1.1–3.6% of total losses, functioning as insurance rather than substitution. The SDG assessment reveals a fundamental trade-off: the NSR offsets energy-security losses (SDGs 7, 9) but worsens climate and marine outcomes (SDGs 13, 14). Theoretically, this study proposes “alternative maritime route availability” as a conceptual extension of supply chain resilience (SCRes) capabilities and outlines a sustainability-adjusted resilience score (SARS) framework that, pending further validation, could serve as a replicable assessment tool. These findings underscore that accelerating the energy transition remains the most effective long-term response to chokepoint vulnerability. Full article

Marine-related activities contribute significantly to plastic pollution in oceans worldwide, particularly in regions located along international maritime routes such as Türkiye. The Dardanelles serves as a major maritime gateway connecting the Aegean Sea with both the Sea of Marmara and the Black Sea, enabling heavy vessel traffic that subsequently disperses plastic pollutants across large areas of the Mediterranean and beyond. Therefore, for the first time, this study applied material flow analysis to estimate potential sources and pathways of macro- and microplastics from 12 vessel categories, including fishing fleets, merchant ships, cruise liners, and military vessels in the Northern Aegean Sea. This approach provides insight into the range of sources and pathways, highlights priority areas for mitigation, and identifies additional knowledge gaps. Through material flow analysis–based estimations, general macro- and microplastic waste is found to be the largest contributor to marine plastic pollution, with an average of 14,965 tons/year, followed by antifouling particles at 5848.5 tons/year. Overall, this study presents a comprehensive evaluation of vessel-derived plastic pollution in a strategically significant maritime corridor and emphasizes its potential implications for the broader marine eco-system. Full article

The Strait of Gibraltar (SG) is a key biogeographic and ecological corridor connecting the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, enabling the seasonal migrations of fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus). The objective of this study was to characterize, for the first time, the spatial and temporal exposure of the species to maritime traffic during its migration through the SG, quantifying movement patterns, individual composition, and collision risk to identify critical areas for conservation. Validated observations collected between April 2016 and October 2024, with additional records in January and March 2025, were integrated with EMODnet vessel density layers to assess monthly distributions of sightings, individuals, calves, migration patterns, and behavior. A total of 347 sightings comprising 692 individuals were recorded, revealing predominantly westward movements between June and August. Spatial overlap analyses indicated that the highest exposure occurred both near the Bay of Algeciras/Gibraltar and in the northern half of the Central SG, where cargo ship and tanker traffic coincides with dense migration routes and where injuries have been documented in the field. These findings delineate high-risk areas for fin whales throughout the SG and provide an empirical basis for spatial management measures, including speed reduction zones, adaptive route planning, and the possible designation of the area as a cetacean migration corridor. The proposed measures aim to mitigate collision risk and ensure long-term ecological connectivity between the Mediterranean and the Atlantic. Full article

The origin of humans on Earth is closely linked to understanding how ancient populations dispersed into adjacent territories. Traditionally, studies have identified landscape and climatic changes as the primary factors in this dispersal. However, we propose that regional tectonic and geodynamic factors also played a significant role in shaping these movements. To analyze this phenomenon, we employed several primary methods, including radiometric dating, magnetostratigraphy, paleomagnetic correlation, isotope–oxygen analysis, tectonothermal studies, gravity mapping, paleobiogeographic assessment, lithofacies analysis, and event and cyclic stratigraphy. Our research indicates that the Akchagylian hydrospheric maximum, which reached up to +200 m, significantly limited the early dispersal of hominins from Africa to Eurasia. The migration corridor was shaped by tectonic activity between the Dead Sea Transform and the boundary of the Mesozoic Terrane Belt carbonate platform. We argue that, during the early stages of hominin evolution in East Africa, the Levantine Corridor (LC) had not yet developed into an optimal route for dispersal, either tectonically or paleogeographically. Suitable habitats for early hominins emerged only after the regression at the end of the Middle Gelasian, around two million years ago, when sea level fell by approximately 200 m, leading to the dissection of the coastal high plateau of the Eastern Mediterranean. We therefore suggest that the LC became established only after the termination of the Akchagylian transgression and the subsequent landscape reconfiguration of the Eastern Mediterranean. Our integrated analysis, combining paleomagnetic, structural, tectonic, and event stratigraphy data, indicates that the age of the renowned ‘Ubeidiya site in northern Israel is several thousand years older than previously thought. This paleogeographic impact had not been considered in earlier studies. Considering the diverse and complex factors that governed hominin dispersal from Africa into Eurasia within this multifaceted region, we propose that the scope of research should be broadened. Our detailed study of the Carmel area, located northeast of the Levantine Corridor and influenced by it during the Pleistocene, indicates that this region was inundated during the early phases of hominin migration out of Eastern Africa. Besides this, we have conducted an integrated geological–geophysical landscape analysis of the central part of the Israeli coastal plain. Full article

Background: The emission of air pollutants into the atmosphere is a global issue as it contributes to global warming and climate-related issues. Human activities like the burning of fossil fuel influence changes in weather patterns—resulting in issues such as a rise in sea levels, among other things. Identifying road network routes within Northern Cape Province in South Africa that are less exposed to air pollutants like carbon monoxide is the issue this study seeks to address. Methods: The method used for our predictions is based on a graph convolutional network (GCN) and long short-term memory (LSTM). The GCN extracts geospatial characteristics, and the LSTM captures both nonlinear relationships and temporal dependencies in an air pollutant and meteorological dataset. Furthermore, an A* search strategy identifies the path from one location to another with the lowest carbon monoxide concentrations within a road network. The explainable artificial intelligence (xAI) technique is used to describe the nonlinear relationship between the target variable and features. Meteorological and air pollutant data in the form of statistical mean, minimum, and maximum values were leveraged, and a random sampling technique was utilized to fill the data gap to help train the predictive model (GCN-LSTM-A*). Results: The predictive model was evaluated with mean squared error (MSE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) values within two multi-time steps (8 and 16 h) with MSEs of 0.1648 and 0.1701, respectively. The LIME technique, which provides explanations of features, shows that Wind_speed and NO₂ and NOx concentrations decreased the predicted CO, whereas PM_2.5, PM₁₀, relative humidity, and O₃ increased the predicted CO of the route. Full article

Palaemon gravieri is an ecologically important shrimp species that plays a vital role in depressing jellyfish blooms in the southern Yellow and East China Seas of China. However, information on its distribution pattern and migration route related to environmental variables is fragmented. We conducted independent trawling surveys of P. gravieri between 2018 and 2019. Its sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity lower limits were 8 °C and 30‰, respectively. It showed the highest abundance at sea bottom temperatures and salinities of 12–14 °C and 32–33‰, respectively, in spring; 11–12 °C and 32.5‰ in autumn; and 10.5–14 °C and 31–33‰ in winter. Mean biomass, abundance, and size were ranked seasonally as follows: autumn > winter > spring > summer; autumn > winter and spring; and summer > spring > autumn > winter, respectively. Under the current climate scenario, P. gravieri is mainly concentrated in the inshore areas of the southern Yellow and northern East China Seas. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios in 2100, P. gravieri was mainly concentrated in the southern Yellow and northern East China Seas, and in inshore areas of the East China Sea. This species is therefore expected to benefit from climate warming. The findings of this study can facilitate the development of climate-induced fishery strategies and management schemes. Full article

At present, sea ice remains a critical factor affecting the safety of vessel operations along the Northern Sea Route (NSR). However, inconsistencies between the navigability outcomes derived from the criteria for the admission of ships in the area of the Northern Sea Route (NSR criteria) and the polar operational limit assessment risk indexing system (POLARIS) methodology present challenges for navigational decision-making. This study aims to conduct a systematic comparison of the POLARIS methodology and the NSR criteria in evaluating the navigability of independently operating vessels classified as Arc4 to Arc9. Through comparative calculations of navigability and the navigability rates for six ice-class vessels across 27 districts using the two methods, this study reveals the consistencies and discrepancies in their navigability outcomes. Firstly, using the POLARIS methodology, the risk index outcome (RIO) is calculated for six ice-class vessels across 27 districts. For these districts, the navigability threshold is defined when 95% or more of the area exhibits an RIO greater than or equal to zero. Secondly, using the NSR criteria, navigability ratios for six ice-class vessels under varying ice conditions are evaluated. A navigability threshold is defined when 95% or more of the ice conditions in a district are classified as navigable. Finally, a quantitative comparison of the weekly navigability ratios obtained by the two methods is conducted to reveal the consistencies and discrepancies in the navigability outcomes of each ice-class vessel across different NSR districts. The results indicate that the consistency between the navigability outcomes of the two methods decreases with lower vessel ice classes, particularly in September and March. In general, the consistency of performance between the two methods in terms of navigability outcomes deteriorates as the vessel ice class decreases and ice conditions become more complex. This study provides a scientific foundation and data-based support for route planning and real-time decision-making in polar waters. Full article

This study monitored the conditioning of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) broodstock in a closed culture system at 3000 m above sea level (m.a.s.l.) to evaluate the feasibility of this culture method and assess the first spawning of the species under these conditions as an alternative production route for the communities present in the foothills of Cordillera de los Andes, northern Chile. A total of 120 specimens with an initial weight of 170 g were used. They were maintained in a recirculation aquaculture system (RAS) composed of protected circular tanks, decanters, a biofilter, and oxygenation equipment. Fish growth was monitored through parameters such as specific growth rate (SGR), feed conversion ratio (FCR) and percent weight growth (PWG), parameters that were maintained within those reported by other authors for this species. The first successful spawning occurred after 12 months of broodstock conditioning, yielding 8570 eggs, of which 6569 hatched successfully. The success of this conditioning and spawning not only broadens the understanding of adaptability to high-altitude environments, but also provides evidence for the potential diversification of productive activities in foothill areas through aquaculture. Full article

The Bohai Sea is the only semi-enclosed inland sea in China. With active marine economic activities, it faces a persistently high risk of oil spill accidents. This study assesses the occurrence risk and pollution risk of oil spills by considering factors such as sea state, the location of oil platform, and shipping route density in the Bohai Sea. The results show that the central part of the Bohai Sea, the southern Liaodong Peninsula, and the Bohai Strait area have a relatively high occurrence risk of oil spills due to busy maritime traffic and harsh sea conditions. In contrast, some areas in the northern, western, and southern parts of the Bohai Sea have a relatively low occurrence risk of oil spills because of weak maritime activity intensity and relatively calm sea state. In terms of the oil pollution risk, its distribution in the Bohai Sea shows significant seasonal characteristics, which are mainly comprehensively affected by multiple dynamic factors such as circulation, monsoon, and seawater exchange. Based on the oil pollution risk distribution, seasonally targeted strategies are proposed, which can provide a scientific basis for oil spill prevention and emergency management in the Bohai Sea, and help relevant departments formulate targeted prevention and control strategies. Full article

A graphical clustering approach was used to objectively identify prevalent surface circulation patterns in the East/Japan Sea (EJS). By applying a spectral clustering algorithm, three distinct patterns in the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC) and its extension were identified from daily maps of reanalyzed sea surface heights spanning the past 30 years. The results are consistent with previous studies that used manual classification of the EKWC’s Lagrangian trajectories, highlighting the effectiveness of spectral clustering in accurately characterizing the surface circulation states in the EJS. Notably, the recent dominance of northern paths, as opposed to routes along Japan’s coastline or those departing from Korea’s east coast further south, has prompted focused re-clustering of the northern paths according to their waviness. This re-clustering, with additional emphasis on path length, distinctly categorized two patterns: straight paths (SPs) and large meanders (LMs). Notably, SPs have become more prevalent in the most recent years, while LMs have diminished. An autoregression analysis reveals that seasonal anomalies in the cluster frequency in spring tend to persist through to the following autumn. The frequency anomalies in the SPs correlate strongly with the development of pronounced anomalies in the gradient of meridional sea surface height and negative anomalies in the surface wind stress curl in the preceding cold seasons. This relationship explains the observed correlation between a negative Arctic Oscillation during the preceding winter and the increased frequency of SPs in the subsequent spring. The rapid increase in the occurrence of SPs indicates that a reduction in LMs limits the mixing of cold, fresh, northern waters with warm, saline, southern waters, thereby reinforcing the presence of SPs due to a strengthened gradient of meridional surface height and contributing to a slowdown in the regional overturning circulation. Full article

One of the basic features of shamanic rituals cross-culturally in East and Southeast Asia is that the ritual itself is structured as a journey up to the sky, climbing the world mountain or the world tree, or else a journey down to the bottom of the sea and back again. The shamanic retinue is understood to make this journey in person, rather than, as in Daoist ritual, sending divine emissaries up to the highest heavens. The journey is conducted through narrative song and dance, accompanied by strings of bells and lutes. The point of departure is the physical village or village household where the ritual is being conducted, and the journey progresses through a series of well-marked way stations via the temple of the earth god to the higher hills and finally to the villages and markets in the sky, before crossing the heavenly seas and ascending the highest mountain. On the way, demons and other impediments are encountered. The route and way stations vary depending on the purpose of the ritual and the intended divine recipient of offerings and submissions. The present article will explore the route up to the sky and the way stations in more detail, taking a single ritual type as performed by the Pụt and Then ritual practitioners as an example. The Pụt and Then are literate ritual specialists found among the Tày and Nùng peoples in northern Vietnam and southern China, near an area which is known to have been a centre of Brahmanical and Buddhist learning from very early times. Full article

As Arctic sea ice continues to melt and global demand for clean energy rises, Russia’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) are rapidly increasing. To ensure the operational safety of LNG carriers and safeguard the economic interests of stakeholders, including shipowners, a thorough assessment of the navigability of various ice-class LNG carriers along this route is essential. This study collected Arctic ice condition data from 2014 to 2023 and applied the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) methodology to calculate the Risk Index Outcome (RIO) for LNG carriers with No Ice Class, Arc4, and Arc7 ice classifications in Arctic waters. A navigability threshold of 95% RIO ≥ 0 was established to define navigable windows, and critical waters were identified where sections of the route remain in hazardous or risky conditions year-round. The results indicate that for No Ice Class vessels, Arc4 vessels, and Arc7 vessels, the navigable windows for westbound Route 1 and Route 2 under light, normal, and heavy ice conditions range from 70 to 133 days, 70 to 365 days, and 70 to 365 days, respectively, while for eastbound Route 3, the navigable windows range from 0 to 84 days, 0 to 238 days, and 7 to 365 days, respectively. The critical waters affecting the navigability of No Ice Class vessels, Arc4 vessels, and Arc7 vessels are primarily located in the Kara Sea, Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea. This study, using the POLARIS methodology, provides valuable insights into the navigability of LNG carriers with different ice classes along the NSR, supporting the development and utilization of Arctic energy and shipping routes while offering decision-making support for stakeholders involved in Arctic maritime operations. Full article