Search Results (10)

The Tarim River Basin (TRB) faces significant ecological challenges due to global warming, making it essential to understand the changes in the climates of its sub-basins for effective management. With this aim, data from national meteorological stations, ERA5_Land, and climate indices from 1961 to 2021 were used to analyze the temperature and precipitation variations in the TRB and its sub-basins and to assess their climate sensitivity. Our results showed that (1) the annual mean temperature increased by 0.2 °C/10a and precipitation increased by 7.1 mm/10a between 1961 and 2021. Moreover, precipitation trends varied significantly among the sub-basins, with that in the Aksu River Basin increasing the most (12.9 mm/10a) and that in the Cherchen River Basin increasing the least (1.9 mm/10a). Moreover, ERA5_Land data accurately reproduced the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature (correlation 0.92) and precipitation (correlation 0.72) in the TRB. (2) Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis identified the northern sections of the Kaidu, Weigan, and Yerqiang river basins as centers of temperature sensitivity and the western part of the Kaidu and Cherchen River Basin as the center of precipitation sensitivity. (3) Global warming is closely correlated with sub-basin temperature (correlation above 0.5) but weakly correlated with precipitation (correlation 0.2~0.5). TRB temperatures were found to have a positive correlation with AMO, especially in the Hotan, Kashgar, and Aksu river basins, and a negative correlation with AO and NAO, particularly in the Keriya and Hotan river basins. Precipitation correlations between the climate indices were complex and varied across the different basins. Full article

Water system connectivity is an important measure to optimize the balanced spatial allocation of water resources and water security patterns. Inland river basins in arid zones are generally insufficiently connected, so the scientific evaluation of the current status of water system connectivity and the centrality of its nodes in the water system network has practical significance for the scientific construction of regional water networks. Taking the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang, China, as an object, this study conducted a comprehensive evaluation of basin water system connectivity by constructing a water system connectivity evaluation system with a total of 12 indicators for the three aspects of pattern connectivity, structural connectivity and functional connectivity. Subsequently, the TOPSIS model, with combined weights of the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weight method, was used to comprehensively evaluate the connectivity of the watershed’s water system. The research evaluated the node centrality of the water system network that was closely related to the basin water system connectivity by using complex network analyses. The study results indicated the following: (1) among the source streams in the Tarim River Basin, the connectivity of the Aksu Basin was the best and that of the Keriya Basin was the worst and (2) the distribution patterns of the eigenvector centrality and betweenness centrality of the basin hydrological network nodes were similar, with nodes of highest centrality concentrated in the vicinity of the mainstems and the source–mainstem intersections. This work provides a basis and reference for the construction of water system connectivity and the selection of key control sections for ecological flow in the Tarim River Basin. Full article

The precipitation on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains significantly impacts the green economy of the Tarim Basin’s southern edge. Observations have noted an expansion of the surface water area in this region, though the reasons for this are not yet fully understood. Due to limited instrumental data, this study leverages field measurements from the third Xinjiang comprehensive expedition and multiple gridded datasets. Through trend analysis and a geographical detector model, it examines the precipitation’s decadal, interannual, and seasonal variations across key areas (Hotan River Basin, Keriya River Basin, Qarqan River Basin, and Kumukuli Basin), identifying factors behind the spatial and temporal distribution of regional precipitation. The findings reveal the following: (1) An increase in annual precipitation across the region from 187.41 mm in the 1980s to 221.23 mm in the early 21st century, at a rate of 10.21 mm/decade, with the most significant rise in the eastern Kunlun-Kumukuli Basin. (2) Precipitation exhibits clear seasonal and spatial patterns, predominantly occurring in spring and summer, accounting for 90.27% of the annual total, with a general decrease from the mountains towards downstream areas. (3) Rising average annual temperatures contribute to an unstable atmospheric structure and increased water-holding capacity, facilitating precipitation. Significant influences on precipitation changes include the North Atlantic Oscillation and solar flux, explaining 43.98% and 31.21% of the variation, respectively. Full article

Climate and topography are pivotal factors influencing snow cover variation, highlighting the significance of investigating the altitudinal response of snow cover to climate change. This study adopted a new MODIS snow cover extent product over China, reanalysis climate data, and digital elevation model (DEM) data to analyze the variation characteristics of snow cover frequency (SCF) and climatic factors with elevation in the Keriya River Basin (KRB) during the hydrological years from 2000 to 2020. The Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) method was utilized to explore the elevation-based relationships between SCF and climatic factors. Our findings can be summarized as follows: (1) The SCF exhibited an “increasing–decreasing–increasing–decreasing” pattern intra-annually, with insignificant monthly inter-annual variations. Only November, January, April, and May demonstrated upward trends, whereas October and December remained relatively stable, and other months exhibited declines. (2) Vertical variations in SCF and climatic factors revealed fluctuating upward trends in SCF and wind speed. On the other hand, the air temperature consistently decreased at a lapse rate ranging from 0.60 to 0.85 °C/100 m. Precipitation demonstrated “rising–falling” or “rapidly rising–slowly rising” patterns, bounded by 3821 m (range 3474–4576 m). (3) A new decision scheme, which took into account the alteration of the primary SCF controlling factors and shifts between positive and negative impacts caused by these factors, was used to determine five threshold elevation zones: 2585 m (range 2426–2723 m), 3447 m (range 3125–3774 m), 4251 m (range 4126–4375 m), 5256 m (range 4975–5524 m), and 5992 m (range 5874–6425 m). These threshold elevation zones were evident in spring, with four of these appearing in autumn (excluding 4251 m) and summer (excluding 2585 m). Only two threshold elevation zones were observed in winter with elevation values of 3447 m and 5992 m, respectively. Our findings are crucial for a deeper understanding of snow cover variation patterns at different elevations and offer essential insights for the responsible management of regional water resources. Full article

Desert oases are vital for maintaining the ecological balance in arid regions’ inland river basins. However, fine-grained assessments of water stress in desert oasis ecosystems are limited. In our study, we aimed to evaluate the water stress in desert oasis ecosystems in the middle reaches of the Keriya River Basin, with a specific focus on their ecological functions and optimizing water resource management. We hypothesized that evapotranspiration has significant effects on ecological water consumption. First, we estimated the actual evapotranspiration (ET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) based on the SEBS (surface energy balance system) model and remote sensing downscaling model. Then, the ecological water requirement (EWR) and ecological water stress (EWS) index were constructed to evaluate the ecological water resource utilization. Finally, we explored the influencing factors and proposed coping strategies. It was found that regions with higher ET values were mainly concentrated along the Keriya River and its adjacent farmland areas, while the lower values were observed in bare land or grassland areas. The total EWR exhibited the sequence of grassland > cropland > forest, while the EWR per unit area followed the opposite order. The grassland’s EWS showed a distinct seasonal response, with severe, moderate, and mild water shortages and water plenitude corresponding to spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. In contrast, the land use types with the lowest EWS were water areas that remained in a state of water plentitude grade (0.08–0.20) throughout the year. Temperature and vegetation index were identified as the primary influencing factors. Overall, this study provides a reliable method for evaluating the EWR and EWS values of basin scale vegetation, which can serve as a scientific basis for formulating water resource management and regulation policies in the region. Full article

As a significant component of the cryosphere, snow cover plays a crucial role in modulating atmospheric circulation and regional hydrological equilibrium. Therefore, studying the dynamics of snow cover and its response to climate change is of great significance for regional water resource management and disaster prevention. In this study, reanalysis climate datasets and a new MODIS snow cover extent product over China were used to analyze the characteristics of climate change and spatiotemporal variations in snow cover in the Keriya River Basin (KRB). Furthermore, the effects of climate factors on snow cover and their coupling effects on runoff were quantitatively evaluated by adopting partial least squares regression (PLSR) method and structural equation modeling (SEM), respectively. Our findings demonstrated the following: (1) Air temperature and precipitation of KRB showed a significant increase at rates of 0.24 °C/decade and 14.21 mm/decade, respectively, while the wind speed did not change significantly. (2) The snow cover frequency (SCF) in the KRB presented the distribution characteristics of “low in the north and high in the south”. The intra-annual variation of snow cover percentage (SCP) of KRB displayed a single peak (in winter), double peaks (in spring and autumn), and stability (SCP > 75%), whose boundary elevations were 4000 m and 6000 m, respectively. The annual, summer, and winter SCP in the KRB declined, while the spring and autumn SCP experienced a trend showing an insignificant increase during the hydrological years of 2001–2020. Additionally, both the annual and seasonal SCF (except autumn) will be further increased in more than 50% of the KRB, according to estimates. (3) Annual and winter SCF were controlled by precipitation, of which the former showed a mainly negative response, while the latter showed a mainly positive response, accounting for 43.1% and 76.16% of the KRB, respectively. Air temperature controlled SCF changes in 45% of regions in spring, summer, and autumn, mainly showing negative effects. Wind speed contributed to SCF changes in the range of 11.23% to 26.54% across annual and seasonal scales. (4) Climate factors and snow cover mainly affect annual runoff through direct influences, and the total effect was as follows: precipitation (0.609) > air temperature (−0.122) > SCP (0.09). Full article

The ecological water diversion project (EWDP) in the Tarim River Basin, China, aims to allocate more surface water to downstream reaches to restore the degraded ecosystems. However, seasonal changes in ecological water diversion; the factors (natural and anthropogenic) controlling the ecological water diversion, whether the seasonal delivery of water temporally corresponded to the vegetation’s seasonal water demands; and the benefits of the ecological water diversion through overflowing surface water irrigation are unclear. To address the above issues, this study examines the intra-annual changes and its influencing factors in ecological water diversion (inundation) in the Daliyaboyi Oasis in the lower Keriya River valley within the Tarim Basin, discusses whether the seasonal delivery of water temporally corresponded to the vegetation’s seasonal water demands, and assesses the ecological benefits of overflowing surface water irrigation. Inundation was quantified by digitizing monthly changes in the inundated area from 2000 to 2018 in the oasis using 184 Landsat images. The results demonstrate that seasonal changes in the inundated area varied significantly, with maximum peaks occurring in February and August; a period of minimal inundation occurred in May. Differences in the July/August peak (i.e., July or August) in inundation dominated the inter-annual variations in the inundated area over the 19-year study period. The two peaks in the inundation area were temporally consistent with the vegetation’s seasonal water demand. Local residents have used ecological water to irrigate vegetation in different parts of the oasis during different seasons, an approach that expanded the inundated area. The February peak in the inundated area is closely linked to elevated downstream groundwater levels and the melting of ice along the river. The August peak is related to a peak in runoff from headwater areas. The minimum May value is correlated to a relatively low value in upstream runoff and an increase in agricultural water demand. Thus, natural factors control the intra-annual and inter-annual variations in the inundated area. Humans changed the spatial distribution of the inundated area and enhanced the water’s ecological benefits, but did not alter the correlation between peak periods of inundation and vegetation water demand. The results from this study improve our understanding of the benefits of the EWDP in the Tarim River Basin. Full article

Runoff is closely related to human production, the regional environment, and hydrological characteristics. It is also an important basis for water cycle research and regional water resource development and management. However, obtaining hydrological information for uninformed river sections is complicated by harsh environments, limited transportation, sparse populations, and a low density of hydrological observation stations in the inland arid zone. Here, low-altitude remote sensing technology was introduced to combine riverbed characteristics through unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) inversion with classical hydraulic equations for ungauged basins in the middle and lower reaches of the Keriya River, northwest China, and investigate the applicability of this method on wide and shallow riverbeds of inland rivers. The results indicated that the estimated average error of the low-altitude remote sensing flow was 8.49% (ranging 3.26–17.00%), with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.59 m³·s⁻¹ across the six selected river sections, suggesting that this method has some applicability in the study area. Simultaneously, a method for estimating river flow based on the water surface width– and water depth–flow relationship curves for each section was proposed whereas the precise relationships were selected based on actual section attributes to provide a new method for obtaining runoff data in small- and medium-scale river areas where information is lacking. Full article

In recent years, the climate in the arid region of Northwest China has become warmer and wetter; however, glaciers in the north slope of the West Kunlun Mountains (NSWKM) show no obvious recession, and river flow is decreasing or stable. This contrasts with the prevalent response of glaciers to climate change, which is recession and initial increase in glacier discharge followed by decline as retreat continues. We comparatively analyzed multi-timescale variation in temperature–precipitation–snow cover-runoff in the Yarkant River Basin (YRK), Karakax River Basin (KRK), Yurungkax River Basin (YUK), and Keriya River Basin (KRY) in the NSWKM. The Mann–Kendall trend and the mutation–detection method were applied to data obtained from an observation station over the last 60 years (1957–2017) and MODIS snow data (2001–2016). NSWKM temperature and precipitation have continued to increase for nearly 60 years at a mean rate of 0.26 °C/decade and 5.50 mm/decade, respectively, with the most obvious trend (R² > 0.82) attributed to the KRK and YUK. Regarding changes in the average snow-cover fraction (SCF): YUK (SCF = 44.14%) > YRK (SCF = 38.73%) > KRY (SCF = 33.42%) > KRK (SCF = 33.40%). Between them, the YRK and YUK had decreasing SCA values (slope < −15.39), while the KRK and KRY had increasing SCA values (slope > 1.87). In seasonal variation, the SCF of the three of the basins reaches the maximum value in spring, with the most significant performance in YUK (SCF = 26.4%), except for YRK where SCF in spring was lower than that in winter (−2.6%). The runoff depth of all river basins presented an increasing trend, with the greatest value appearing in the YRK (5.78 mm/decade), and the least value in the YUK (1.58 mm/decade). With the runoff response to climate change, temperature was the main influencing factor of annual and monthly (summer) runoff variations in the YRK, which is consistent with the runoff-generation rule of rivers in arid areas, which mainly rely on ice and snow melt for water supply. However, this rule was not consistent for the YUK and KRK, as it was disturbed by other factors (e.g., slope and slope direction) during runoff generation, resulting in disruptions of their relationship with runoff. This research promotes the study of the response of cold and arid alpine regions to global change and thus better serve regional water resources management. Full article

Soil salinization is one of the most widespread soil degradation processes on Earth, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. The salinized soil in arid to semi-arid Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in China accounts for 31% of the area of cultivated land, and thus it is pivotal for the sustainable agricultural development of the area to identify reliable and cost-effective methodologies to monitor the spatial and temporal variations in soil salinity. This objective was accomplished over the study area (Keriya River Basin, northwestern China) by adopting technologies that heavily rely on, and integrate information contained in, a readily available suite of remote sensing datasets. The following procedures were conducted: (1) a selective principle component analysis (S-PCA) fusion image was generated using Phased Array Type L-band SAR (PALSAR) backscattering coefficient (σ°) and Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) multispectral image of Keriya River Basin; and (2) a support vector machines (SVM) classification method was employed to classify land cover types with a focus on mapping salinized soils; (3) a cross-validation method was adopted to identify the optimum classification parameters, and obtain an optimal SVM classification model; (4) Radarsat-2 (C band) and PALSAR polarimetric images were used to analyze polarimetric backscattering behaviors in relation to the variation in soil salinization; (5) a decision tree (DT) scheme for multi-source optical and polarimetric SAR data integration was proposed to improve the estimation and monitoring accuracies of soil salinization; and (6) detailed field observations and ground truthing were used for validation of the adopted methodology, and quantity and allocation disagreement measures were applied to assess classification outcome. Results showed that the fusion of passive reflective and active microwave remote sensing data provided an effective tool in detecting soil salinization. Overall accuracy of the adopted SVM classifier with optimal parameters for fused image of ETM+ and PALSAR data was 91.25% with a Kappa coefficient of 0.89, which was further improved by the DT data integration and classification method yielding an accuracy of 93.01% with a Kappa coefficient of 0.92 and lower disagreement of quantity and allocation. Full article