Search Results (6)

The fire risk of cables constantly changes over time and is affected by the materials and working conditions of cables. To address its internal timing property, it is essential to use a dynamic analysis method to assess cable fire risk. Meanwhile, data uncertainty resulting in the deviation of risk values must also be considered in the risk assessment. In this regard, this study proposes a hybrid cloud model (CM)-enabled Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) method to estimate the cable fire risk under uncertainty. In particular, the CM is initially applied to determine the membership degrees of the assessment data relative to different states of the root nodes; then, these degrees are considered the prior probabilities of DBN, where the dynamic risk profiles are reasoned. Subsequently, the Birnbaum and Fussell–Vesely importance measures are constructed to identify the key nodes for risk prevention and control, respectively. Moreover, a case study of the Chongqing Tobacco Logistics Distribution Center is conducted, the computational results of which indicate the proposed method’s decision-making effectiveness. Finally, a comparison of the reasoning results between the proposed and traditional methods is performed, presenting strong evidence that demonstrates the reliability of the proposed method. Full article

Solar Photovoltaic (PV) systems typically convert solar irradiance into electricity, thereby helping to reduce the need for fossil fuels and the amount of greenhouse gases released. They provide a reliable and continuous renewable source of energy. However, PV systems are continuously exposed to diverse and changing environmental conditions, such as temperature, humidity, dust, and rain. Exposure to such conditions creates electrical and visible faults in the PV systems. These faults may reduce the PV system’s performance, reliability, and lifetime. In this regard, this paper aims to propose a framework/methodology for reliability modeling and assessment of large-scale grid-connected PV systems using a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) approach. Specifically, an exhaustive literature survey is carried out to acquire the failure rates of different components/faults existing on the DC side of the PV system. Then, the Fussel-Vesely (F-V) importance measure is employed to identify critical faults and their criticality ranking. Results showed that solder bond failure, broken cell, broken interconnect (finger interruption), rack structure, grounding/lightning protection system, delamination, discoloration, and partial shading are the most critical faults which severely degrade the performance of the PV systems. The recommendations and scope for further study are provided to optimize operations and maintenance costs. Full article

Based on available sources, the frequency of explosions in the marine engine’s starting air manifolds is determined under real conditions. A cause-and-effect analysis of these explosions and their root causes are identified. A probabilistic model of an explosion in the starting air manifold of a marine engine is built using a fault tree analysis (FTA). Using a stochastic simulation (Monte Carlo) and an exact reliability availability calculation (ERAC) algorithm applied to the developed FTA model, selected reliability measures are calculated to describe an incident of the top event, which involves an explosion in the starting air manifold. For such an event, several factors are calculated, including the availability, the unavailability, the failure frequency, and the mean time to failure. Based on the simulations, the relative frequency of the top event is determined in relation to the number of events that can simultaneously occur and lead to an explosion. The significance of each basic event is assessed to determine their individual impact on the explosion incident. The following measures are used: the Vesely–Fussell measure of importance, the criticality measure of importance, the Birnbaum measure of reliability importance, and the Birnbaum measure of structural importance. The results of the analysis show that defective starting air valves are most responsible for the explosion incident in the starting air manifold. During the first year of the ship’s operation, the reliability does not fall below the value of 0.65, while the mean time to failure and the top event frequency are statistically at the level of one explosion per approximately 2.28 years of continuous engine operation. Full article

Background: Although hydraulic support can help enterprises in their production activities, it can also cause fatal accidents. Methods: This study established a composite risk-assessment method for hydraulic support failure in the mining industry. The key basic event of hydraulic support failure was identified based on fault tree analysis and gray relational analysis, and the evolution mechanism of hydraulic support failure was investigated based on chaos theory, a synthetic theory model, and cause-and-effect-layer-of-protection analysis (LOPA). Results: After the basic events of hydraulic support failure are identified based on fault tree analysis, structure importance (SI), probability importance (PI), critical importance (CI), and Fussell–Vesely importance (FVI) can be calculated. In this study, we proposed the Fussell–Vesely–Xu importance (FVXI) to reflect the comprehensive impact of basic event occurrence and nonoccurrence on the occurrence probability of the top event. Gray relational analysis was introduced to determine the integrated importance (II) of basic events and identify the key basic events. According to chaos theory, hydraulic support failure is the result of cross-coupling and infinite amplification of faults in the employee, object, environment, and management subsystems, and the evolutionary process has an obvious butterfly effect and inherent randomness. With the help of the synthetic theory model, we investigated the social and organizational factors that may lead to hydraulic support failure. The key basic event, jack leakage, was analyzed in depth based on cause-and-effect-LOPA, and corresponding independent protection layers (IPLs) were identified to prevent jack leakage. Implications: The implications of these findings with respect to hydraulic support failure can be regarded as the foundation for accident prevention in practice. Full article

This article describes a case study using a fault tree analysis for a multi-operational-state system (system with several operational states) model with many different technical solutions for the power system of a fishing vessel. We describe the essence of system dependability metamodeling. A vector of external events was used to construct a detailed metamodel, depending on the operational status being modeled. In a fault tree, individual external events modify the structure of a system. The analysis includes the following operational states: sea voyages of a vessel, hauling in and paying out nets, trawling, staying in a port, and heaving to. For each operational state and assumed system configurations, the importance of system components was determined by calculating the Vesely–Fussell measures. The most important components for each operational state of a system were determined, and the critical system components, that is, those that are important in every operational state and system configuration, were identified. Full article

The wind energy industry is expanding in order to be able to meet the current and future energy demand, and is supported by governments in that renewable energy investment has been made. Optimal decision making (DM) in wind turbine manufacturing is required to guarantee the competitiveness of the business. This paper considers decision making for wind turbine manufacturing using a logical decision tree (LDT) and binary decision diagrams (BDD). A qualitative analysis of wind turbine manufacturing is carried out using logical decision trees. They are used for a qualitative study of the case study. Binary decision diagrams are used to obtain the Boolean function and, therefore, to carry out a quantitative analysis. Finally, an optimization of budgets is employed based on importance measures. There is no optimal method that can establish the importance measures. The following heuristic methods have been used to find a solution close to the optimal: Fussell-Vesely, Birnbaum and Criticality. The computational cost is reduced by ranking the events. The heuristic methods to establish the best rankings are: Top-Down-Left-Right, Level based method, AND based method, Breadth-First Search (BFS) and Depth First Search (DFS). A real case study is considered, in which a static and dynamic analysis is carried out. Full article