Search Results (8)

Global climate change poses a significant management challenge for vital transboundary resources like the Pacific saury (Cololabis saira). To address this, we developed an innovative framework that uses high-resolution Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and deep learning to define species distribution, which then informs a robust Ensemble Species Distribution Model (ESDM). The model (TSS > 0.89, AUC > 0.97) identifies sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (CHL) as key habitat drivers. Projections under future climate scenarios reveal two critical threats: (1) a continuous northeastward migration of the habitat’s centroid, exceeding 400 km by 2100 under a high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, and (2) a drastic contraction of highly suitable habitat (suitability > 0.8), shrinking by up to 94% under the high-emission SSP3-7.0 scenario. By directly linking key oceanographic features to these climate-driven risks, this study delivers an essential scientific decision-support tool for management bodies like the North Pacific Fisheries Commission (NPFC) to develop climate-adaptive strategies. Full article

Polyplectron katsumatae is a rare and endangered species endemic to Hainan, China. It has long been regarded as a subspecies of the widely distributed Grey Peacock-Pheasant (Polyplectron bicalcaratum), a classification that has resulted in a paucity of targeted conservation studies and rendered efforts to protect and restore its populations and habitats exceedingly challenging. In this study, the Jianfengling section of Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park was designated as the research area. We comprehensively utilized infrared camera monitoring data for P. katsumatae and other species, alongside habitat environmental factor data obtained through multiple monitoring approaches. An ensemble species distribution model (ESDM) was employed to evaluate the habitat suitability for four ground-dwelling bird species, including P. katsumatae, and to investigate their environmental preferences and competitive interactions during habitat selection. Subsequently, the Marxan model was applied to identify key protection areas for P. katsumatae. The results indicate that the suitable habitat for P. katsumatae is primarily distributed in the central, eastern, and certain southern areas of the study region, with low spatial overlap and minimal competition from the suitable habitats of the other three ground-dwelling bird species. However, due to anthropogenic disturbances and the inherently stringent habitat requirements of P. katsumatae, its overall suitable habitat area is limited, exhibiting a concentrated distribution overall with fragmented, small patches within it. Our study recommends designating the eastern and southern regions of the study area as key protection areas for P. katsumatae, thereby providing a robust baseline environment and policy support for the targeted protection of its habitat and the recovery of its populations. Full article

Hainan tropical rainforest is the largest contiguous tropical rainforest in China, but it has experienced increasing disturbances from anthropogenic activities in recent decades due to economic and social development. However, the current status of wildlife habitats within the rainforest remains insufficiently studied, lacking systematic and scientific assessments necessary to guide effective biodiversity conservation strategies. This study focuses on Jianfengling area of Hainan tropical rainforest, using wildlife infrared camera monitoring data and habitat environmental factor data collected through multi-source monitoring in 2020–2021. By applying the Ensemble Species Distribution Model (ESDM), we assessed the spatial distribution of habitat suitability and its influencing factors for seven representative wildlife species, as well as the overall spatial distribution of multi-species habitat suitability. The results indicate that wildlife habitat suitability in Jianfengling study area exhibits a spatial pattern of high suitability in the central regions and low suitability in surrounding areas. Anthropogenic activities and DEM were identified as the most significant factors influencing habitat selection, with most species favoring mid and high altitude areas (500–1000 m) where human activities are less prevalent. This study provides scientific support for tropical rainforest management authorities to optimize resource allocation, develop dynamic monitoring strategies, and implement effective conservation measures. Full article

The loss and fragmentation of wildlife habitats is a major threat to their survival and expansion, and protected areas (PAs) are the main tool for conserving biodiversity and protecting habitats. However, most current studies focus on analyzing suitable habitats for species and rarely analyze the spatial and temporal changes in multi-species habitats in protected areas and the effectiveness of conservation. In this study, we analyzed changes in the suitable habitats of five focal mammal species before and after the incorporation of the Hainan Jianfengling protected area into China’s national parks. We utilized the ensemble species distribution model (ESDM) to assess these changes, based on multi-species infrared camera monitoring data from 2015 to 2016 and 2020 to 2021. Furthermore, we evaluated differences in conservation effectiveness before and after the establishment of the national parks. The results showed that there were some differences in habitat changes among all the species included in this study, and all of them showed the phenomenon of the migration from suitable habitats to the central area. The environmental changes in and around the protected area suggest that the changes are closely related to the increase in anthropogenic activities around the protected area, and it is recommended that the protected area should be better managed at its edges to minimize the impact of anthropogenic disturbances on the species and their habitats. Full article

The global trade of non-native pet birds has increased in recent decades, and this has accelerated the introduction of invasive birds in the wild. This study employed ensemble species distribution modelling (eSDM) to assess potential habitat suitability and environmental predictor variables influencing the potential distribution of non-native pet bird species reported lost and sighted in South Africa. We used data and information on lost and found pet birds from previous studies to establish and describe scenarios of how pet birds may transition from captivity to the wild. Our study revealed that models fitted and performed well in predicting the suitability for African grey (Psittacus erithacus), Budgerigar (Melopsittacus undulatus), Cockatiel (Nymphicus hollandicus), Green-cheeked conure (Pyrrhura molinae), Monk parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus), and Rose-ringed parakeet (Psittacula krameri), with the mean weighted AUC and TSS values greater than 0.765. The predicted habitat suitability differed among species, with the suitability threshold indicating that between 61% and 87% of areas were predicted as suitable. Species with greater suitability included the African grey, Cockatiel, and Rose-ringed parakeet, which demonstrated significant overlap between their habitat suitability and reported lost cases. Human footprint, bioclimatic variables, and vegetation indices largely influenced predictive habitat suitability. The pathway scenario showed the key mechanisms driving the transition of pet birds from captivity to the wild, including the role of pet owners, animal rescues, adoption practices, and environmental suitability. Our study found that urban landscapes, which are heavily populated, are at high risk of potential invasion by pet birds. Thus, implementing a thorough surveillance survey is crucial for monitoring and evaluating the establishment potential of pet species not yet reported in the wild. Full article

The habitat plays a crucial role in ensuring the survival of wildlife. However, the increasing disturbances caused by human activities present a substantial threat to habitats, especially for species such as the leopard cat (Prionailurus bengalensis), which is a significant small predator. Currently, research on leopard cats predominantly focuses on low-altitude regions within its distribution range, leaving plateau areas understudied. To enhance our understanding of the impact of human disturbances on leopard cat habitats, we undertook a study employing infrared camera trappings to monitor leopard cats’ activity in Xinlong of southwestern China between 2015 and 2023. We analyzed the spatial distribution and habitat suitability of the leopard cats by utilizing ensemble species distribution models (ESDMs). Moreover, we employed two-species occupancy models to investigate the spatial interaction between leopard cats and human disturbances. The results indicated that (1) the potential suitable habitat area for leopard cats encompassed approximately 1324.93 km² (14.3%), primarily located along the banks of Yalong river. (2) The distribution of suitable habitat was predominantly influenced by competitors, specifically the yellow-throated marten (YTM), accounting for 52.4% of the influence, as well as environmental factors such as distance to water (DTW) at 12.0% and terrain roughness index (TRI) at 10.0%. Human interference, including cattle presence (4.6%), distance to road (DTD, 4.9%), and distance to settlement (DTS, 3.5%), had a limited impact on the habitat distribution. (3) Within a 5 km radius, habitat suitability increased with proximity to human settlements. (4) Leopard cats exhibited spatial independence from humans and domestic cattle (species interaction factor (SIF) = 1.00) while avoiding domestic horses (SIF = 0.76 ± 0.03). The relatively minor impact of human disturbances in Xinlong could be attributed to traditional cultural practices safeguarding wildlife and the leopard cat’s environmental adaptability. We recommend establishing a novel conservation paradigm based on the living dynamics of wildlife communities in Xinlong, thereby offering a more targeted approach to biodiversity preservation in the future. Full article

The striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius Pallas, 1771) is a widespread species in Northern Eurasia. It damages crops and carries zoonotic pathogens. Its current and future range expansion under climate change may negatively affect public health and the economy, warranting further research to understand the ecological and invasive characteristics of the species. In our study, we used seven algorithms (GLM, GAM, GBS, FDA, RF, ANN, and MaxEnt) to develop robust ensemble species distribution models (eSDMs) under current (1970–2000) and future climate conditions derived from global circulation models (GCMs) for 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100. Simulation of climate change included high-, medium-, and low-sensitivity GCMs under four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We analyzed the habitat suitability across GCMs and scenarios by constructing geographical ranges and calculating their centroids. The results showed that the range changes depended on both the sensitivity of GCMs and scenario. The main trends were range expansion to the northeast and partial loss of habitat in the steppe area. The striped field mouse may form a continuous range from Central Europe to East Asia, closing the range gap that has existed for 12 thousand years. We present 49 eSDMs for the current and future distribution of A. agrarius (for 2000–2100) with quantitative metrics (gain, loss, change) of the range dynamics under global climate change. The most important predictor variables determining eSDMs are mean annual temperature, mean diurnal range of temperatures, the highest temperature of the warmest month, annual precipitation, and precipitation in the coldest month. These findings could help limit the population of the striped field mouse and predict distribution of the species under global climate change. Full article

This study aimed to use the applications of Ensemble Species Distribution Modelling (eSDM), Geographical Information Systems (GISs), and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for the design of a protected area (PA) for the critically endangered yellow-spotted mountain newt, Neurergus derjugini, by tracking and excluding the effects of climate and landscape changes in western Iran and northeastern Iraq. Potential recent and future distributions (2050 and 2070) were reconstructed by eSDM using eight algorithms with MRI-CGCM3 and CCSM4 models. The GIS-based MCDA siting procedure was followed inside habitats with high eSDM suitability by eliminating the main roads, cities, high village density, dams, poor vegetation, low stream density, agricultural lands and high ridge density. Then, within the remaining relevant areas, 10 polygons were created as “nominations” for PAs (NPAs). Finally, for 10 different NPAs, the suitability score was ranked based on ratings and weights (analytical hierarchy process) of the number of newt localities, NPA connectivity, NPA shape, NPA habitat suitability in 2070, NPA size, genetic diversity, village density and distance to nearest PAs, cities, and main roads. This research could serve as a modern realistic approach for environmental management to plan conservation areas using a cost-effective and affordable technique. Full article