Search Results (4)

The objective of this research is to understand the relationship between the tone of information released in government harvest reports, in extreme market conditions (rising and falling), and the behavior of agricultural commodity prices. In the period between January/2017 and February/2023, an autoregressive model of moving averages was used with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity approach. The evidence allows us to infer that investors can, on some occasions, use this information to direct their portfolios in order to balance risk and return. However, the full impact of the tone is not reflected immediately, possibly requiring time to be absorbed. Depending on the informational weight, the commodity, and the market context, there may or may not be an impact. This divergent empirical evidence indicates that there is a complex relationship between tone reading and asset pricing. Full article

As one of the world’s leading grain producers, Brazil stands out in soybean and corn production. Accurate estimation of key crop phenological stages is essential for agricultural decision-making, especially considering Brazil’s vast territory, climatic diversity, and increasing frequency of extreme weather events. This study investigated the applicability of the NDVI, EVI, WDRVI, and NDWI, derived from Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2, to identify crop sowing and harvest dates at the field scale. We extracted the vegetative peak from each vegetation index time series and identified the left and right inflection points around the peak to delineate the crop season. A double-logistic function and a derivative approach were applied to identify the Start of Season, Peak of Season, and End of Season. For both soybeans and corn, the RMSE ranged from 5 to 8 days for sowing dates, while for harvest dates it ranged from 6 to 15 days for corn. Despite these differences, all vegetation indices exhibited robust performance, with Spearman correlation values between 0.56 and 0.84. Our findings indicate that the use of different indices does not have a significant impact on the results, as long as the adjustment of temporal parameters for the phenological metrics is appropriate for each index. Full article

Reliable remote sensing-based Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) information is crucial for assessing Earth’s surface activities. Brazil’s agricultural dynamics, including year-round cropping, multiple cropping, and regional climate variability, make LULC monitoring a highly challenging task. The country has thirteen remote sensing-based LULC products specifically tailored for this purpose. However, the differences and the results of these products have not yet been synthesized to provide coherent guidance in assessing their spatio-temporal agricultural dynamics and identifying promising approaches and issues that affect LULC analysis. This review represents the first comprehensive assessment of the advantages, challenges, and limitations, highlighting the main issues when dealing with contrasting LULC maps. These challenges include incompatibility, a lack of updates, non-systematic classification ontologies, and insufficient data to monitor Brazilian LULC information. The consequences include impacts on intercropping estimation, diminished representation or misrepresentation of croplands; temporal discontinuity; an insufficient number of classes for subannual cropping evaluation; and reduced compatibility, comparability, and spectral separability. The study provides insights into the use of these products as primary input data for remote sensing-based applications. Moreover, it provides prospects for enhancing existing mapping efforts or developing new national-level initiatives to represent the spatio-temporal variation of Brazilian agriculture. Full article

Brazil, as a global player in soybean production, contributes about 35% to the world’s supply and over half of its agricultural exports. Therefore, reliable information about its development becomes imperative to those who follow the market. Thus, this study estimates three phenological stages of soybean crops (sowing, beginning seed, and harvesting dates), identifying spatial–temporal patterns of soybean phenology using phenological metric extraction techniques from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. Focused on the state of Paraná, this study validates the methodology using reference data from the Department of Rural Economics (DERAL). Subsequently, the model was applied to the major Brazilian soybean area cultivation. The results demonstrate strong agreement between the phenological estimates and reference data, showcasing the reliability of phenological metrics in capturing the stages of the soybean cycle. This study represents the first attempt, to the best of our knowledge, to correlate the vegetative peak of soybeans with the beginning seed stage at a large scale within Brazilian territory. Amidst the urgent need for the accurate estimation of agricultural crop phenological stages, particularly considering extreme weather events threatening global food security, this research emphasizes the continual importance of advancing techniques for soybean monitoring. Full article